Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

This is it. Forget all the other information in three threads over thousands of pages and several years.

My market nose knows. Why? Because 'my Dad'.

 

You joke. But these are better signs that most of the bullshit that gets passed off as investment advice on here. Everyone seems to have a full proof exit strategy and they will be one of the lucky ones to get out at the top. If you add up the value of all stocks and commodities and bonds etc I bet market has peaked. Cash is probably the best asset right now.

[reformed nice guy]

my old man is like that too, has made a BIG gain since last year in his SIPP and is now into AIM stocks, talking about companies with no revenue doing big deals with conglomerates etc

it does smell a bit peaky and does remind me of DBs "the market will hurt the most people" comment

I havent bought anything for a while as I have stuck to the simple ladder system, last was Ovintov and Gazprom in October

[Hardhat]

The market might have peaked, but the whole point of this thread is to invest in macro cycles and ignore timing the market.

Personally most of the stocks I've bought based on this thread are 5-7 year holds from this point.

It doesn't matter to me whether the market pulls back at this point.

[Hancock]

40 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

my old man is like that too, has made a BIG gain since last year in his SIPP and is now into AIM stocks, 

Ask him his opinion on Ironveld ... was going to buy a grands worth for a punt.

[reformed nice guy]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Ask him his opinion on Ironveld ... was going to buy a grands worth for a punt.

I cant do it, if a conversation turns to shares then its like having my own boiler room scam trying to pressure me to buy penny stocks!

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

my old man is like that too, has made a BIG gain since last year in his SIPP and is now into AIM stocks, talking about companies with no revenue doing big deals with conglomerates etc

it does smell a bit peaky and does remind me of DBs "the market will hurt the most people" comment

I havent bought anything for a while as I have stuck to the simple ladder system, last was Ovintov and Gazprom in October

Stop him. Aim is a hornets nest of insider trading. He will lose a fortune.

[RJT1979]

I have 50 shares in watchlist. All negative now. Nat gas was up but just folded. This must signal something.

[AWW]

FTSE is down 1% for the week, not sure what all the fuss is about.

[Castlevania]

53 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

I have 50 shares in watchlist. All negative now. Nat gas was up but just folded. This must signal something.

My dodgy Argentine farmers are up!

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk02lzKCkFn3r0WQHk3SPgnQCuVO6HQ:1610742261648&q=NASDAQ:+CRESY&stick=H4sIAAAAAAAAAONgecRoyi3w8sc9YSmdSWtOXmNU4-IKzsgvd80rySypFJLgYoOy-KR4uLj0c_UNknOS0qqSeBax8vo5Brs4BlopOAe5BkcCACiAl8tKAAAA&sa=X&sqi=2&pjf=1&ved=2ahUKEwie8dDC4p7uAhWFqaQKHXdtBH8Qlq4CegQIABAg&biw=375&bih=628&dpr=2

Everything else is a sea of red mind you

[Barnsey]

Just in case you were in any doubt... 

 

[Popuplights]

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/report-claims-sec-is-investigating-exxonmobil-over-asset-valuation-company-responds-2021

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/report-claims-sec-is-investigating-exxonmobil-over-asset-valuation-company-responds-2021

how dare they, encouraging your employees or contractors to lie is good business, its totally acceptable. The oil industry like the tobacco industry never did anything wrong.

[Chewing Grass]

12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Just in case you were in any doubt... 

 

The IMF praised Russia’s synchronised response to the economic challenges created by the COVID-19 pandemic, mentioning both the central bank’s monetary easing and fiscal stimulus from the finance ministry.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Popuplights said:

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/report-claims-sec-is-investigating-exxonmobil-over-asset-valuation-company-responds-2021

I misread it as enronmobil.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Just in case you were in any doubt... 

 

Exactly and just as we predicted with 100% clarity on this thread from the start.The bankers are telling governments that this has to be a fiscal injection,not monetary,although what it really means is the liquidity being printed is avoiding the banks and going through government direct into the economy.Bankers  will no doubt be very worried about this,but its a simple message that people are missing.The last QE re-financed banks balance sheets.This lot is refinancing people.

The forces that will bring about inflation are aligning.Inequality is forcing fiscal injections.Global supply chains are going to pull back more,and globalisation is going to become slowbalisation for geoolitical and local political reasons.Fiscal activism is certain to increase and the CBs are all showing they want to tolerate higher inflation.

[Democorruptcy]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

We need moar

Apparently a lot of people were expecting $2000 stimulus cheques, whilst what’s being proposed is an additional $1400 to the $600 recently sent out 

They’re also pushing ahead with the $15 minimum wage proposal

I was expecting them to get $2,000 cheques. It will be more disappointing next time when they say $2,500 and only send $500.

[Barnsey]

Sunak tailors Budget to avoid job cuts

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is drawing up Budget plans to try to avert a big rise in unemployment when the government’s Covid-19 emergency measures, including the furlough programme, are finally withdrawn.

Mr Sunak is looking to incentivise employers to keep staff in work in his Budget, which will focus on stopping the coronavirus pandemic creating a long tail of joblessness that will scar the economy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/a804ed18-b1e5-44c8-a66d-5343089bb805

[Democorruptcy]

47 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Sunak tailors Budget to avoid job cuts

Chancellor Rishi Sunak is drawing up Budget plans to try to avert a big rise in unemployment when the government’s Covid-19 emergency measures, including the furlough programme, are finally withdrawn.

Mr Sunak is looking to incentivise employers to keep staff in work in his Budget, which will focus on stopping the coronavirus pandemic creating a long tail of joblessness that will scar the economy.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/a804ed18-b1e5-44c8-a66d-5343089bb805

Same old same old, sounds like a repeat of the mini budget in July. That was "for jobs" including job retention £1,000 for keeping employees on and the stamp duty holiday because property transaction fell 50% in May when the housing market was closed for 50% of the month until lockdown ended!
 

Quote

 

One of the most important sectors for job creation is housing. The construction sector adds £39 billion a year to the UK economy. House building alone supports nearly three quarters of a million jobs, with millions more relying on the availability of housing to find work. But property transactions fell by 50% in May. House prices have fallen for the first time in eight years and uncertainty abounds in the market—a market we need to be thriving. We need people feeling confident—confident to buy, sell, renovate, move and improve. That will drive growth. That will create jobs. So to catalyse the housing market and boost confidence, I have decided today to cut stamp duty.

Right now, there is no stamp duty on transactions below £125,000. Today, I am increasing the threshold to half a million pounds. This will be a temporary cut running until 31 March next year, and, as is always the case, these changes to stamp duty will take effect immediately. The average stamp duty bill will fall by £4,500 and nearly nine out of 10 people buying a main home this year will pay no stamp duty at all. Stamp duty cuts, a £5,000 green homes grant and tens of billions of pounds of new capital projects—we are creating jobs: the second part of our plan for jobs.

Scroll up:

https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2020-07-08/debates/BE9ECA8F-A74C-4431-88C7-3CE4E524DA7E/EconomicUpdate?highlight=rishi sunak#contribution-79FF56D2-F6FB-44A7-B117-68EA50FB3C68

 

 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

my old man is like that too, has made a BIG gain since last year in his SIPP and is now into AIM stocks, talking about companies with no revenue doing big deals with conglomerates etc

it does smell a bit peaky and does remind me of DBs "the market will hurt the most people" comment

I havent bought anything for a while as I have stuck to the simple ladder system, last was Ovintov and Gazprom in October

 

14 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Stop him. Aim is a hornets nest of insider trading. He will lose a fortune.

Agreed.

AIM is basically junk.

 

[The Idiocrat]

15 hours ago, RJT1979 said:

Stop him. Aim is a hornets nest of insider trading. He will lose a fortune.

I was once in a meeting with our (AIM) company corporate finance provider, who also had a brokerage. We were talking about business progress. In it was another chap, who I recognised as one of the Market Makers. I said, I thought Market Makers weren’t supposed to be in these meetings (conflict of interest, inside information, basically against the rules), and they said, it’s ok, it’s compliant, he’s part time corporate finance and part time market maker! Funny how the share price and spread moved ahead of any announcements...

[AWW]

£500 bonus for all benefit claimants who are currently getting the £20 a week top up. Good news for big tobacco...

At this point I'm starting to look at the possibility of sacking myself from my Ltd Co and claiming UC. Absolutely fuck working, ever again.

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, AWW said:

£500 bonus for all benefit claimants who are currently getting the £20 a week top up. Good news for big tobacco...

At this point I'm starting to look at the possibility of sacking myself from my Ltd Co and claiming UC. Absolutely fuck working, ever again.

FFS my quest to buy a PS5 just got harder

[AWW]

A couple of calculators reckon I can get just over £3k a month. I'm genuinely shocked.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, AWW said:

£500 bonus for all benefit claimants who are currently getting the £20 a week top up. Good news for big tobacco...

At this point I'm starting to look at the possibility of sacking myself from my Ltd Co and claiming UC. Absolutely fuck working, ever again.

Is there a link for that? I'd be furious.

Unless it was a one-off payment to coincide with the ending of the extra £20 per week. That payment is never going to stop otherwise.

Although I think the basic unemployment payment should be more than £71. Single unemployed people without children get screwed by the system. I wouldn't mind that staying at £91 but tax credits being reduced by at least £20 per week.

A £500 bonus for benefits claimants would mostly go on imports.

[Noallegiance]

14 minutes ago, AWW said:

A couple of calculators reckon I can get just over £3k a month. I'm genuinely shocked.

Well, in the defence of the current situation, UK Gov has seen fit to create a situation that means they have to give out money to stop personal bankruptcy of almost everyone. Weird, but here we are.

However, it may not stop.

I'll add, a large portion of personal value, development and drive comes from working for one's self or in a small business. So the rewards are not solely financial. The human ego needs to feel valued. Otherwise one ends up 20+ stone and claiming it's everyone else's fault, which I contend has led to the rash of people with their own gravity fields in this country. That cannot cause a rush of pleasure and self-worth when looking in the mirror. No amount of free currency can compensate.