Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

1 minute ago, Noallegiance said:

Well, in the defence of the current situation, UK Gov has seen fit to create a situation that means they have to give out money to stop personal bankruptcy of almost everyone. Weird, but here we are.

However, it may not stop.

I'll add, a large portion of personal value, development and drive comes from working for one's self or in a small business. So the rewards are not solely financial. The human ego needs to feel valued. Otherwise one ends up 20+ stone and claiming it's everyone else's fault, which I contend has led to the rash of people with their own gravity fields in this country. That cannot cause a rush of pleasure and self-worth when looking in the mirror. No amount of free currency can compensate.

Small businesses means an independent class of people largely outside government control i.e. of independent means.

Get rid of them and they become dependent on the 'goodwill of the state'.

In a democracy the government serves the people, when you have the above the people serve the government and it matters very little as to what they think.

[AWW]

It depends whether you define yourself by your work. I could see someone who lives on benefits and does some volunteering and spends time with their young kids being more fulfilled than someone who works a 50 hour week in a stressful job and sees the kids at weekends though.

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, AWW said:

It depends whether you define yourself by your work. I could see someone who lives on benefits and does some volunteering and spends time with their young kids being more fulfilled than someone who works a 50 hour week in a stressful job and sees the kids at weekends though.

Excellent, we will all live on benefits, just need them to be paid to everbody who wants them irrespective of their parental status.

I have always wanted to be fulfilled rather than driven.

I am discriminated against.

[feed]

Ask not why the muggles are being given free money, ask how you can get it from them.
Big tobacco is one, what else?

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, feed said:

Ask not why the muggles are being given free money, ask how you can get it from them.
Big tobacco is one, what else?

Gambling companies

[feed]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Gambling companies

Funny isn't it, Caesars take William Hill, MGM after entain

[Democorruptcy]

37 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

A £500 bonus for benefits claimants would mostly go on imports.

125 bottles of £4 wine in England or 100 of the same bottles at £5 in Wales or Scotland.

[feed]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

125 bottles of £4 wine in England or 100 of the same bottles at £5 in Wales or Scotland.

at £4 a bottle that's giving, what 3/4, back in VAT and duty.  

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, feed said:

Ask not why the muggles are being given free money, ask how you can get it from them.
Big tobacco is one, what else?

A guy i work with loses £1k a month gambling,he showed me the slots he plays on.Playtech slots.I own Playtech.I dont enjoy the fact,its just the way it is.Wetherspoons of course when they are open.On tobacco im really watching these vape releases by BAT in Manchester,mood enhancing vapes could be a huge business and it would be regulated so likely only the big tobacco companies would control it.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, feed said:

Funny isn't it, Caesars take William Hill, MGM after entain

Failure of UK government.Massive failure.The UK lead the world in gambling tech.We could of built 2 or 3 massive companies.Instead woke government decided to demonise them all.Now we will/are losing them all the US takeovers.Iv made big money on it,i bought a lot of Playtech at £1.67 for instance,and Hills below a quid,but still think its another example of our shit politicians.

[geordie_lurch]

A good video from the Peak Prosperity lot...

Will An Oil Price Spike Be The Next Blow To The Economy? Art Berman predicts a 30% price increase in 2021

 

[DurhamBorn]

35 minutes ago, AWW said:

It depends whether you define yourself by your work. I could see someone who lives on benefits and does some volunteering and spends time with their young kids being more fulfilled than someone who works a 50 hour week in a stressful job and sees the kids at weekends though.

Iv always been 100% fulfilled when not working,and hardly ever in work.I think a lot of that is knowing how the system works.Missing seeing my son play his first football match at school,while paying tax for all the people there seeing their sons who were on benefits.That sort of thing.Its one reason i learned macro.Im leaving work in Feb again,maybe for the last time,or i might do a few 4 month stints to use up the tax allowance.One reason is i want to look after my grandchildren 2 days a week so my children can work without been fleeced on childcare.Other family members covering another day.

I have memories,knowledge,experience,insight that i want to pass on to my grandchildren to prepare them for the world.

My children are also doing really well,and should all be mortgage free before 35 years old in nice houses.Iv given them no money ,but i fix their cars and their roofs,i cook pies and drop them off,i cook them a meal once a week so they can have a night after work without cooking,and they know 100% that im there for them.

Work for most people is crap,and it should be used to get to a position where you dont have to,or can go part time etc,because the system now is stacked against people who work in a massive way.

[feed]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A guy i work with loses £1k a month gambling,he showed me the slots he plays on.Playtech slots.I own Playtech.I dont enjoy the fact,its just the way it is.Wetherspoons of course when they are open.On tobacco im really watching these vape releases by BAT in Manchester,mood enhancing vapes could be a huge business and it would be regulated so likely only the big tobacco companies would control it.

I guess we've missed some of the juice on JDW. But could be an interesting sector if we do get a sugar rush once the locks are opened. 

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv always been 100% fulfilled when not working,and hardly ever in work.I think a lot of that is knowing how the system works.Missing seeing my son play his first football match at school,while paying tax for all the people there seeing their sons who were on benefits.That sort of thing.Its one reason i learned macro.Im leaving work in Feb again,maybe for the last time,or i might do a few 4 month stints to use up the tax allowance.One reason is i want to look after my grandchildren 2 days a week so my children can work without been fleeced on childcare.Other family members covering another day.

I have memories,knowledge,experience,insight that i want to pass on to my grandchildren to prepare them for the world.

My children are also doing really well,and should all be mortgage free before 35 years old in nice houses.Iv given them no money ,but i fix their cars and their roofs,i cook pies and drop them off,i cook them a meal once a week so they can have a night after work without cooking,and they know 100% that im there for them.

Work for most people is crap,and it should be used to get to a position where you dont have to,or can go part time etc,because the system now is stacked against people who work in a massive way.

You do it the right way and pass knowledge on. Both to your family and to us on here. Inspirational.

You will pay your way. Others will pay more than their share. Whilst others will take without putting in. Morally you are in the right. Those that overpay are taken for mugs. The freeriders are morally in the wrong but also at risk long term if the benefits are slashed by necessity. Depends on your morals of course.

[Noallegiance]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv always been 100% fulfilled when not working,and hardly ever in work.I think a lot of that is knowing how the system works.Missing seeing my son play his first football match at school,while paying tax for all the people there seeing their sons who were on benefits.That sort of thing.Its one reason i learned macro.Im leaving work in Feb again,maybe for the last time,or i might do a few 4 month stints to use up the tax allowance.One reason is i want to look after my grandchildren 2 days a week so my children can work without been fleeced on childcare.Other family members covering another day.

I have memories,knowledge,experience,insight that i want to pass on to my grandchildren to prepare them for the world.

My children are also doing really well,and should all be mortgage free before 35 years old in nice houses.Iv given them no money ,but i fix their cars and their roofs,i cook pies and drop them off,i cook them a meal once a week so they can have a night after work without cooking,and they know 100% that im there for them.

Work for most people is crap,and it should be used to get to a position where you dont have to,or can go part time etc,because the system now is stacked against people who work in a massive way.

Great points well made.

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

You do it the right way and pass knowledge on. Both to your family and to us on here. Inspirational.

You will pay your way. Others will pay more than their share. Whilst others will take without putting in. Morally you are in the right. Those that overpay are taken for mugs. The freeriders are morally in the wrong but also at risk long term if the benefits are slashed by necessity. Depends on your morals of course.

The thing is though i fully support a welfare system,its crucial to western style systems.Ours was pretty decent up until the Blair/Brown years and then the Tories failing to row it back.Take a girl i know and her husband,26.They dont work,they get £280 a week in cash,the rent and council tax paid on a brand new house on a new estate where other people next door have to pay £130k.They sit and hes getting fat playing his x box all day.All she does is goes shopping with her mother.He has had a few jobs but he has taken days off after a couple of weeks and then gets finished.There is zero incentive to work because they cant think past next week.They cant think if we get a full time and part time job we will be  £200 a week better off.We can then buy a house and pay it off over 20 years so at 45 we will be mortgage free with kids up.We can then work full time and save to retire at 60 and look after out grandkids.Nope,they simply think we will do nothing and let the person next door pay for us.

Now what if instead of £280 a week they were gettin £150?.Food,bills etc would be paid,but not much spare at all.No takeways every other night,no shopping every day with mother.Then the incentive changes.

Our welfare system is far too generous.Thats all.The problem is the window seems to of passed to cut,and they are instead giving even more out free to mothers taking photos of their terrible free food with £25 nails done on a new iphone.Iv never once seen an article on TV where the reporter shows a poor sod leaving the house at 5am starting an old car,going to work in a warehouse and showing how his tax and lower wages are directly funding fatso to play on his x box.

 

[Noallegiance]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The thing is though i fully support a welfare system,its crucial to western style systems.Ours was pretty decent up until the Blair/Brown years and then the Tories failing to row it back.Take a girl i know and her husband,26.They dont work,they get £280 a week in cash,the rent and council tax paid on a brand new house on a new estate where other people next door have to pay £130k.They sit and hes getting fat playing his x box all day.All she does is goes shopping with her mother.He has had a few jobs but he has taken days off after a couple of weeks and then gets finished.There is zero incentive to work because they cant think past next week.They cant think if we get a full time and part time job we will be  £200 a week better off.We can then buy a house and pay it off over 20 years so at 45 we will be mortgage free with kids up.We can then work full time and save to retire at 60 and look after out grandkids.Nope,they simply think we will do nothing and let the person next door pay for us.

Now what if instead of £280 a week they were gettin £150?.Food,bills etc would be paid,but not much spare at all.No takeways every other night,no shopping every day with mother.Then the incentive changes.

Our welfare system is far too generous.Thats all.The problem is the window seems to of passed to cut,and they are instead giving even more out free to mothers taking photos of their terrible free food with £25 nails done on a new iphone.Iv never once seen an article on TV where the reporter shows a poor sod leaving the house at 5am starting an old car,going to work in a warehouse and showing how his tax and lower wages are directly funding fatso to play on his x box.

 

Any chance you see a change in this as part of the next cycle?

To be honest it's fucking annoying.

[Talking Monkey]

47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The thing is though i fully support a welfare system,its crucial to western style systems.Ours was pretty decent up until the Blair/Brown years and then the Tories failing to row it back.Take a girl i know and her husband,26.They dont work,they get £280 a week in cash,the rent and council tax paid on a brand new house on a new estate where other people next door have to pay £130k.They sit and hes getting fat playing his x box all day.All she does is goes shopping with her mother.He has had a few jobs but he has taken days off after a couple of weeks and then gets finished.There is zero incentive to work because they cant think past next week.They cant think if we get a full time and part time job we will be  £200 a week better off.We can then buy a house and pay it off over 20 years so at 45 we will be mortgage free with kids up.We can then work full time and save to retire at 60 and look after out grandkids.Nope,they simply think we will do nothing and let the person next door pay for us.

Now what if instead of £280 a week they were gettin £150?.Food,bills etc would be paid,but not much spare at all.No takeways every other night,no shopping every day with mother.Then the incentive changes.

Our welfare system is far too generous.Thats all.The problem is the window seems to of passed to cut,and they are instead giving even more out free to mothers taking photos of their terrible free food with £25 nails done on a new iphone.Iv never once seen an article on TV where the reporter shows a poor sod leaving the house at 5am starting an old car,going to work in a warehouse and showing how his tax and lower wages are directly funding fatso to play on his x box.

 

We can't be more than a couple of years from relentless cuts coming in can we DB. What's your view on how a benefits lifestyle will be mid decade, will it be much closer to a fairly basic lifestyle instead of the relative comfort as compared to say the guy working in the warehouse

[AWW]

This cycle is the perfect time to cut the benefits bill. Government just need to run the annual increases behind inflation.

[janch]

2 hours ago, feed said:

Ask not why the muggles are being given free money, ask how you can get it from them.
Big tobacco is one, what else?

I've got some IMB, PTEC and Diageo so all bases covered

Not trading advice etc etc

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The thing is though i fully support a welfare system,its crucial to western style systems.Ours was pretty decent up until the Blair/Brown years and then the Tories failing to row it back.Take a girl i know and her husband,26.They dont work,they get £280 a week in cash,the rent and council tax paid on a brand new house on a new estate where other people next door have to pay £130k.They sit and hes getting fat playing his x box all day.All she does is goes shopping with her mother.He has had a few jobs but he has taken days off after a couple of weeks and then gets finished.There is zero incentive to work because they cant think past next week.They cant think if we get a full time and part time job we will be  £200 a week better off.We can then buy a house and pay it off over 20 years so at 45 we will be mortgage free with kids up.We can then work full time and save to retire at 60 and look after out grandkids.Nope,they simply think we will do nothing and let the person next door pay for us.

Now what if instead of £280 a week they were gettin £150?.Food,bills etc would be paid,but not much spare at all.No takeways every other night,no shopping every day with mother.Then the incentive changes.

Our welfare system is far too generous.Thats all.The problem is the window seems to of passed to cut,and they are instead giving even more out free to mothers taking photos of their terrible free food with £25 nails done on a new iphone.Iv never once seen an article on TV where the reporter shows a poor sod leaving the house at 5am starting an old car,going to work in a warehouse and showing how his tax and lower wages are directly funding fatso to play on his x box.

 

Having worked in Third World countries I know hunger is a great way of focussing the mind....and why I give benefit claimants very short shrift when they start complaining about their lot.

[MrXxxx]

Good Macrovoices podcast this week, especially interesting is 45-46 min (basically the 'options' available to govts), and 57-59 min (basically how the people are going to get 'robbed').

[AWW]

3 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Excellent, we will all live on benefits, just need them to be paid to everbody who wants them irrespective of their parental status.

I have always wanted to be fulfilled rather than driven.

I am discriminated against.

There's actually quite an interesting discussion to be had here, given the march of automation.

What do you do when you only need 5% of the population in work to keep the lights on? This discussion is always approached from the angle of "what do the 95% live on?", with UBI being the usual answer.

But there is another question that needs to be answered - how do you reward the 5% who are still working? I've never seen this discussed seriously.

Personally, I'm all for shortening the working week. We did it after the industrial revolution, but not after the computer revolution. Not formally, anyway, although it's pretty common for office bods to do 3 or 4 day week after taking into account idle web browsing.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

But there is another question that needs to be answered - how do you reward the 5% who are still working? I've never seen this discussed seriously.

They get the same UBI as everyone else is the obvious answer I suppose.

[AWW]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

They get the same UBI as everyone else is the obvious answer I suppose.

Exactly - so where is the incentive to work?