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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Yadda yadda yadda
10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It doesn’t make sense to ship stuff from France to Ireland and then to the U.K. Unless it was much cheaper.

Yes, I'm sure that is nonsense. There was plenty of talk before Brexit of goods traveling from France/Belgium/Holland through the UK to Ireland. They were looking at routes direct to Ireland from the continent.

There are always exceptions to any rule but sailing around England, unloading in Ireland and then sailing back again would be daft. Unless there was a product that had a larger market in Ireland than England. Can't be many of those.

Might be the opportunity for some smuggling through Northern Ireland.

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Democorruptcy
9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It doesn’t make sense to ship stuff from France to Ireland and then to the U.K. Unless it was much cheaper.

I thought it seemed a long way around. I had a look and there's Cherbourg to Dublin. Maybe more could go Bilbao to Rosslare then to South Wales to cut Holyhead out. As long as my home delivery doesn't start having gaps, especially the Guinness.

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Democorruptcy
18 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

RMG update!

Amazon have started delivering their own items in my local area but so far only in the busiest postcode and this has seen a noticeable drop in work.

Royal Mail needs to get rid of the USO or it won't be able to compete.

Edit: I didn't know Herpes was on auto-replace with Herpes xD

From December

Quote

 

Amazon and Herpes are in talks to handle the Post Office’s packages, in a potentially major boost for Britain’s 11,500 branches.

The Post Office yesterday revealed it had signed its first “non-exclusivity” deal with Royal Mail, in a move that will loosen ties that have been in place for hundreds of years.

Silicon Valley giant Amazon and Herpes, a US parcel delivery firm, are understood to be among those attempting to fill the gaps.

Royal Mail remains the biggest parcel delivery company in the UK, handling around 1.2bn packages in 2018.

However, Herpes, whose clients include retailers such as John Lewis, and Amazon deliver around 550m parcels in the UK each year between them.

A deal with state-owned Post Office will be seen as a major salvo to Royal Mail’s stranglehold over the parcel industry. Until now the Post Office has only handled Royal Mail items

https://www.cityam.com/amazon-circles-post-office-as-it-loosens-ties-with-royal-mail/

 

 

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20 minutes ago, JMD said:

older peoples opinions are key to this debate.

The way I see it is that older people have had their lives and I don't know why all the emphasis has been on keeping them alive.  I think the people who've had it worst are young adults and children. 

A year is a very long time in the life of a child and most of them have been stuck at home for this length of time without seeing their friends and with/without meaningful education.  At best it's been hit and miss with parents frantically trying to homeschool and do their own jobs at the same time.

Young adults were poised to go into their first jobs/go to college or university/go travelling etc and break away from their (helicopter) parents.  Instead they are cooped up with them for an unknown lenght of time.  I'm not sure I would have been able to stand it at that age.  My nephew had his first term at university much of it in lockdown and now is at home with online lectures and no practicals.  Instead the lecturer does a demonstration over zoom.

We surely can't go on like this for much longer.

My father dropped dead of a heart attack at age 49 and never lived to see his pension.  I stopped work and downsized my house as soon as I could living off some of the equity until my state pension kicked in. 

I certainly don't have a lot of income but I'd rather downsize until I live in a camper van than undergo the wage slavery of my previous existence.

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34 minutes ago, JMD said:

Spygirl, I agre. Covid is a bit like nature's fuse to our demographic time bomb problem. Btw i don't expect the politicians to simply light that fuse but I do expect society - political/media/health experts - to debate it properly.                                                                                                                                                         Excuse me asking, but if you'd like to share, I would be interested in what your mam's thoughts were as you say this was a conversation you both had. I ask because I think older peoples opinions are key to this debate.

She worked at an old folks home, parttime, up to her early 70s.

Shes seen tye crappy end of life.

She thinks you need to put people down.

Once they are over 80, dementia, incontinent etce what the fucking point if keeping them living?

If someone is infirm, mobile, can hold a conversation and relatively normal, fine, no issue.

 

 

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working woman
1 hour ago, Harley said:

I had a crisis of confidence this week questioning what I had done.  But I am ready for a new chapter/adventure!

I noticed it -  a few of your posts were unlike you.  

Have you read Rich Dad Poor Dad (Robert Kyosaki)  and the 4 Quadrants showing where you get your money from? 

               They are: Employee, Self-Employed, Business Owner and Investor. I would add a 5th - Benefits.

I found it interesting as people become very comfortable being in one quadrant and find it hard to move into other ones.  

You have moved from being an Employee to an Investor, which is hard to do.  It is like changing careers. 

RK says if you want to be Financially Independent, you need to eventauly operate out of the Investor quadrant.

I am currently in the quadrants of employee, self employed and Investor and know that I want to end up as an Investor only.  

Everyone is on their own journey and it is hard seeing what is going on in the Benefits Quadrant, but if you stick with the Investor Quadrant, in the long term you will be financially better off. 

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, spygirl said:

She worked at an old folks home, parttime, up to her early 70s.

Shes seen tye crappy end of life.

She thinks you need to put people down.

Once they are over 80, dementia, incontinent etce what the fucking point if keeping them living?

If someone is infirm, mobile, can hold a conversation and relatively normal, fine, no issue.

 

 

Thanks. Her views sound very much like my own parent's. 

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On 19/12/2020 at 13:27, wherebee said:

I'd say one thing to consider re inflation proofing your life are clothes.

 

I remember when a pair of jeans was a major purchase.  Noone under 40 will think of clothes as something to budget for.  If you are unlikely to change your size much, buying 3-4 pairs of good quality jeans or trousers, and a bunch of tshirts and shirts, could be very sensible.

We filled up on socks and underwear at the start of the pandemic due to supply chain fears for australia.  I think we will double dip, stick them in a suitcase, in sealed packets, and leave them until needed.  

I could see the days of cheap clothing for the west being over.

I remember my first pair of (Lee) jeans ( I bought myself) cost twenty quid in 1980. That's going on 100 quid today.:o

Seem to remember Brutus set the ball rolling rolling in the early seventies here in the UK. Not much jeans wearing before that.

I discovered an interesting factoid this week. The famous Brutus jeans ad. from 1976 pre- dated the song. Stone me down, Dudas copied the tv ad and released the chart hit in 1977 not the other way around.

 

Brutus jeans ad 1976...

 

 

 

Copied by Dudas....

 

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37 minutes ago, janch said:

The way I see it is that older people have had their lives and I don't know why all the emphasis has been on keeping them alive.  I think the people who've had it worst are young adults and children. 

A year is a very long time in the life of a child and most of them have been stuck at home for this length of time without seeing their friends and with/without meaningful education.  At best it's been hit and miss with parents frantically trying to homeschool and do their own jobs at the same time.

Young adults were poised to go into their first jobs/go to college or university/go travelling etc and break away from their (helicopter) parents.  Instead they are cooped up with them for an unknown lenght of time.  I'm not sure I would have been able to stand it at that age.  My nephew had his first term at university much of it in lockdown and now is at home with online lectures and no practicals.  Instead the lecturer does a demonstration over zoom.

We surely can't go on like this for much longer.

My father dropped dead of a heart attack at age 49 and never lived to see his pension.  I stopped work and downsized my house as soon as I could living off some of the equity until my state pension kicked in. 

I certainly don't have a lot of income but I'd rather downsize until I live in a camper van than undergo the wage slavery of my previous existence.

I agree. But would add that - in terms of the young being hit hardest - I think looking back at this period in future years, many commentators will say this was really about the government 'managing the expectation of the younger generations' into that 'new normal' paradigm they keep mentioning... Sounds a bit dark thing to say maybe, but personally the Covid scales were lifted from my eyes last March 'lockdown' (even the use of language is for me an indicator).

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2 hours ago, Hunty said:

Shorts Petrofac Link

Once those pesky shorts clear out the bedwetters. Close their postions.

Boom.

She'll be fine. Massively oversold. If she goes under £1 next week, a steal in my opinion. Will be allocationg more the lower she goes.

DYOR.

As a complete beginner here, I'm looking for (constructive) criticism on some simple metrics I'm using for screening companies (I haven't got to doing deep-dives yet, which I guess will involve reading their financial reports...). In particular, I may be making implicit assumptions about the value of financial terms, or missing key things.

At the moment I'm just taking ratios of a few numbers straight from the HL site, and I've picked Petrofac (thank you Hunty!), since it looks very good by these metrics, and it was a company I thought about last year, but didn't buy because of its legal troubles.

I have chosen metrics which scale inversely with share price, so I can get a view of what a buy-point would be, and I have expressed most things as percentages, so I can compare several metrics without thinking. I haven't thought what my targets are for each metric, but they feel (probably deceptively) simple to interpret.

Petrofac (104p)

Dividend yield: 9.1%

Earnings/price: 57% (!)

Profit after tax as % of market cap: 18% (2020), 17% (2019), -8% (2018)

Net assets / market cap: 2.6 (2020), 2.8 (2019), 2.7 (2018)

Net tangible assets / market cap: 2.1 (2020), 2.5 (2019), 2.2 (2018)

To me, this looks very very cheap, even if the management is rubbish, since earnings & profitability are high, and if something went wrong, it could be liquidated for more than the cost of buying it.

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11 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

I remember my first pair of (Lee) jeans ( I bought myself) cost twenty quid in 1980. That's going on 100 quid today.:o

Seem to remember Brutus set the ball rolling rolling in the early seventies here in the UK. Not much jeans wearing before that.

I discovered an interesting factoid this week. The famous Brutus jeans ad. from 1976 pre- dated the song. Stone me down, Dudas copied the tv ad and released the chart hit in 1977 not the other way around.

 

Brutus jeans ad 1976...

 

 

 

Copied by Dudas....

 

Similar thing happened with the Coke '...teach the world to sing' advert. Advertising was very creative back then. Today things are different, unoriginal and hardly ever funny or thoughtful - I guess there are too many woke rules which stifle ideas?

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3 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

As a complete beginner here, I'm looking for (constructive) criticism on some simple metrics I'm using for screening companies (I haven't got to doing deep-dives yet, which I guess will involve reading their financial reports...). In particular, I may be making implicit assumptions about the value of financial terms, or missing key things.

At the moment I'm just taking ratios of a few numbers straight from the HL site, and I've picked Petrofac (thank you Hunty!), since it looks very good by these metrics, and it was a company I thought about last year, but didn't buy because of its legal troubles.

I have chosen metrics which scale inversely with share price, so I can get a view of what a buy-point would be, and I have expressed most things as percentages, so I can compare several metrics without thinking. I haven't thought what my targets are for each metric, but they feel (probably deceptively) simple to interpret.

Petrofac (104p)

Dividend yield: 9.1%

Earnings/price: 57% (!)

Profit after tax as % of market cap: 18% (2020), 17% (2019), -8% (2018)

Net assets / market cap: 2.6 (2020), 2.8 (2019), 2.7 (2018)

Net tangible assets / market cap: 2.1 (2020), 2.5 (2019), 2.2 (2018)

To me, this looks very very cheap, even if the management is rubbish, since earnings & profitability are high, and if something went wrong, it could be liquidated for more than the cost of buying it.

Interesting. Isn't that what 'old school' value investors were able to do back in the 80's - buy stocks at market price that were below the companies actual asset value? 

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20 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

As a complete beginner here, I'm looking for (constructive) criticism on some simple metrics I'm using for screening companies (I haven't got to doing deep-dives yet, which I guess will involve reading their financial reports...). In particular, I may be making implicit assumptions about the value of financial terms, or missing key things.

At the moment I'm just taking ratios of a few numbers straight from the HL site, and I've picked Petrofac (thank you Hunty!), since it looks very good by these metrics, and it was a company I thought about last year, but didn't buy because of its legal troubles.

I have chosen metrics which scale inversely with share price, so I can get a view of what a buy-point would be, and I have expressed most things as percentages, so I can compare several metrics without thinking. I haven't thought what my targets are for each metric, but they feel (probably deceptively) simple to interpret.

Petrofac (104p)

Dividend yield: 9.1%

Earnings/price: 57% (!)

Profit after tax as % of market cap: 18% (2020), 17% (2019), -8% (2018)

Net assets / market cap: 2.6 (2020), 2.8 (2019), 2.7 (2018)

Net tangible assets / market cap: 2.1 (2020), 2.5 (2019), 2.2 (2018)

To me, this looks very very cheap, even if the management is rubbish, since earnings & profitability are high, and if something went wrong, it could be liquidated for more than the cost of buying it.

I worked on a Petrofac job in Shetland, they were losing money hand over fist on it, and the management did not have a clue. Seems to be run by Jinglys living in the Middle East.

After seeing that job i'd not put a brass farthing in it.

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9 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Problem with COVID is it was quickly co-opted as another front in the culture war, and there's now a dataset or analysis to suit every hypothesis.

I followed Dr Clare Craig for a while, but quickly realised she's as bad as the scamdemic rampers. She tweeted this study a while back, citing a conclusion that was the *exact* opposite of what was written in the text of the article: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30180-8/fulltext

But I can't link the tweet, she's deleted everything from last year - that in itself is a huge red flag.

Literally the only data and analysis I feel I can now trust is my own observations made from immediate family, friends, acquaintances (NB: ignoring test results, just looking at illness).

My conclusion: the truth is somewhere in the middle - there's no plague-level killer on the loose, but this isn't a normal flu season either. I've certainly never seen flu rip through a fit and healthy family of 8 adults aged 20 to 60, put every last one of them on their arse for weeks on end, and hospitalise 2 of them.

As ever, DYOR (and I mean that literally).

Couldn't agree more with this. I admit I was swayed by the sceptics' arguments last summer as the doom predictions failed to materialise and the Nightingales laid empty.  My wife's an ICU nurse - as the days shortened, any talk about false positives got increasingly withering looks, then 9 people died on one shift and I decided to just be quiet.  No, it's not the plague, but then it's like nothing she's seen before either. 

This is probably the best thing I've read on the whole thing:

https://quillette.com/2021/01/16/rise-of-the-coronavirus-cranks/

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Democorruptcy
55 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

As a complete beginner here, I'm looking for (constructive) criticism on some simple metrics I'm using for screening companies (I haven't got to doing deep-dives yet, which I guess will involve reading their financial reports...). In particular, I may be making implicit assumptions about the value of financial terms, or missing key things.

At the moment I'm just taking ratios of a few numbers straight from the HL site, and I've picked Petrofac (thank you Hunty!), since it looks very good by these metrics, and it was a company I thought about last year, but didn't buy because of its legal troubles.

I have chosen metrics which scale inversely with share price, so I can get a view of what a buy-point would be, and I have expressed most things as percentages, so I can compare several metrics without thinking. I haven't thought what my targets are for each metric, but they feel (probably deceptively) simple to interpret.

Petrofac (104p)

Dividend yield: 9.1%

Earnings/price: 57% (!)

Profit after tax as % of market cap: 18% (2020), 17% (2019), -8% (2018)

Net assets / market cap: 2.6 (2020), 2.8 (2019), 2.7 (2018)

Net tangible assets / market cap: 2.1 (2020), 2.5 (2019), 2.2 (2018)

To me, this looks very very cheap, even if the management is rubbish, since earnings & profitability are high, and if something went wrong, it could be liquidated for more than the cost of buying it.

I have no comment about Petrofac but if you are doing a system using the HL Dividend yield be careful.

It's made up by dividing their last dividend payment by their current share price. It doesn't say "N/A" if a firm isn't currently paying a dividend. If a firm suspends their dividend then their share price will most likely fall. This then makes the dividend yield look higher, say 10p/£1 = 10% now, instead of the 10p/£2 = 5% they might have paid, before they announced no next dividend so the share price dropped by 50%. A juicy looking 10%, when they may have only paid 5% last time and not be going to pay anything at the moment. I think it's scandalous and have told them but all I seemed to get in reply was a shrug of their shoulders. They obviously get commission and ongoing fees when people buy shares for juicy non existent dividends!

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2 hours ago, working woman said:

the 100 and 200 day Moving Averages are nowhere near meeting yet.             

Interesting.  I get the earlier bit about the MAs but what about the above - good or bad? 

We need to create a little space to discuss entry points otherwise the macro stuff will have limited practical purpose.

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I handed my notice in last week Harley again.One of the best paid companies in the area by a long way.I doubt they get very many people giving notice.I know il never regret it,the same as i never have.My time is worth more than any employer will pay me.Cant wait to get cooking again,my kids can be calling in on the way home from work for quality healthy home cooked meals.My dad will be getting took out again and all the other simple things in life.Looking forward to doing a few jobs on the house and my kids houses etc,im loving my big new ladders,something i actually paid full price for.

Above all though my tax bill will fall to almost zero outside of council tax.Why fund our idiot government?

I read that and get that exciting chill you get reminding myself of what it was like (I did similar) and still feel most mornings. To be your own free agent (because additionally I'm no longer too fussed if I cop it tomorrow).  To walk another path, one largely of your own choosing.  I felt similar when I first went contracting.  Things you look back on with fear - fear you might never have done them!  Savour and enjoy your chosen path.  He who dares wins Rodders, he who dares.  Cushty!

PS:. Did my partners tax return last night (HRMC have finally given up and accept I'm out of it all!).  Nice bit of planning and a refund now due!  I can currently do no wrong!

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AlfredTheLittle
30 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I have no comment about Petrofac but if you are doing a system using the HL Dividend yield be careful.

It's made up by dividing their last dividend payment by their current share price. It doesn't say "N/A" if a firm isn't currently paying a dividend. If a firm suspends their dividend then their share price will most likely fall. This then makes the dividend yield look higher, say 10p/£1 = 10% now, instead of the 10p/£2 = 5% they might have paid, before they announced no next dividend so the share price dropped by 50%. A juicy looking 10%, when they may have only paid 5% last time and not be going to pay anything at the moment. I think it's scandalous and have told them but all I seemed to get in reply was a shrug of their shoulders. They obviously get commission and ongoing fees when people buy shares for juicy non existent dividends!

It's just automated, if they had to monitor dividend announcements it would be a lot more work. I guess they would probably be subscribing to the information from a third party, so maybe there's room for someone to come in and do a better job!

In relation to petrofac specifically, I believe they have suspended the dividend, and the share price is so low because they also might be getting a huge fine shortly in connection with bribery... possibly a good time to buy, possibly a terrible time, who knows

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Democorruptcy
1 minute ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

It's just automated, if they had to monitor dividend announcements it would be a lot more work. I guess they would probably be subscribing to the information from a third party, so maybe there's room for someone to come in and do a better job!

In relation to petrofac specifically, I believe they have suspended the dividend, and the share price is so low because they also might be getting a huge fine shortly in connection with bribery... possibly a good time to buy, possibly a terrible time, who knows

I don't think it should be a big problem. They should ask their data source to put a zero in the field. Then it's cross checked and the site displays "N/A" if the value is zero. It isn't like there are millions of firms deciding to suspend a dividend every day. Someone could maintain a database and put the zero in then cross check it and display "N/A". Problem is there's no incentive for HL to sort it because it may lose them share purchases chasing dividends. I'm not suggesting they are the only ones who do it that way.

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

I read that and get that exciting chill you get reminding myself of what it was like (I did similar) and still feel most mornings. To be your own free agent (because additionally I'm no longer too fussed if I cop it tomorrow).  To walk another path, one largely of your own choosing.  I felt similar when I first went contracting.  Things you look back on with fear - fear you might never have done them!  Savour and enjoy your chosen path.  He who dares wins Rodders, he who dares.  Cushty!

PS:. Did my partners tax return last night (HRMC have finally given up and accept I'm out of it all!).  Nice bit of planning and a refund now due!  I can currently do no wrong!

Absolutely. I packed in a relatively well paid safe job 16 years ago and launched myself into self employment. Not one regret. I can now pick and choose who I will work for and what I would like to be paid. Not an easy road by any means but one that is more satisfying*

 

* unless it goes tits up I suppose.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Another big signal would be if they decided to drop the required number of PCR cycles. This doc suggests we use 'up to 40'.

In November a Portugese court ruled that the tests were unreliable and lockdowns unlawful. "when running PCR tests with 35 cycles or more – the accuracy dropped to 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives"

WHO finally admitted the tests were flawed in December.

 

 

 

23 hours ago, AWW said:

Happened in Portugal.

On 22/01/2021 at 15:49, Cattle Prod said:

But I do catch the sniff of lawsuits about this, could it be that the blasted lawyers save us?!

 

RE: "LAWSUITS regarding LOCK-DOWNS"
 
I've listened to quite a bit of this including Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi's quote of WORLD-WIDE lawsuits being undertaken?
 
REALLY?
 
IMO ...WORLD-WIDE Gov's are basically legalised CROOKS, tell me what the F*** can a COURT do, other than THROW it out of court?!
 
Case in point:
 
"Portugal returning to virus lock down Friday, says PM"
 
OR...I'm i missing something, PLEASE do chime in and enlighten me!
 
NOW I've got me rant out the way, here's something to entertain YOU ALL, yep this is a REAL bozo & co meeting!xD
 
 
 
 
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13 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

My conclusion: the truth is somewhere in the middle - there's no plague-level killer on the loose, but this isn't a normal flu season either. I've certainly never seen flu rip through a fit and healthy family of 8 adults aged 20 to 60, put every last one of them on their arse for weeks on end, and hospitalise 2 of them.

As ever, DYOR (and I mean that literally).

It's worth reemphaszing that there's a huge difference between covid scepticism and lockdown scepticism.

The current lockdown isn't 'in the middle' of responses to an above average flu season/defintiely not the equivalent of the Spainish flu,especially if you have a cancer that's going undiagnosed/elective surgery cancelled etc etc.

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13 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Problem with COVID is it was quickly co-opted as another front in the culture war, and there's now a dataset or analysis to suit every hypothesis.

This comment deserves prominence as it's absolutely bang on the money.

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12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Fully agree that if the USA opens up, our idiots will too. I think the reason Boris is suddenly cautious is that we're out on our own with vaccinations. Like going into lockdown (thanks a bunch, Italy) they'll want political cover to come out. Israel will stand on its own two feet though, I'm watching them with interest.

A big signal will be if they decide to record deaths of covid rather than with. Could be done at the stroke of a pen, and would probably halve that curve or more. 

As we've discussed since the start of this mess,there are a couple of things that could finish the pandemic off in one go statiscally and they are the reclassification of covid deaths as dying of covid not with it and also dropping the cycle count on PCR for postives to say 20.

Lookat the recent ICU data I psoted,pneumonia ICU pts currently down 60%+ on 2019,covid up.MI pts down 50%+,covid up.People have stopped dying froma range of the nromal causes currently.

Why Israel?

10 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

100% this - what used to be *hopes* for how one's health would be post-retirement in the 80s are now expectations, give or take. 

I'm regularly in old folks homes and some of them are beyond grim.Even the nice ones have this instutional feel that alienates the contrarian in me.No thank you..I've told the Mrs that I'm not going,it's the fields and fresh air for me when I go.

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