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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't think it should be a big problem. They should ask their data source to put a zero in the field. Then it's cross checked and the site displays "N/A" if the value is zero. It isn't like there are millions of firms deciding to suspend a dividend every day. Someone could maintain a database and put the zero in then cross check it and display "N/A". Problem is there's no incentive for HL to sort it because it may lose them share purchases chasing dividends. I'm not suggesting they are the only ones who do it that way.

Why I look at the 5 year average div but even then some data providers have a wierd way of calculating that which I can't replicate.

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8 hours ago, Hunty said:

Shorts Petrofac Link

Once those pesky shorts clear out the bedwetters. Close their postions.

Boom.

She'll be fine. Massively oversold. If she goes under £1 next week, a steal in my opinion. Will be allocationg more the lower she goes.

DYOR.

Have you seen the balance sheet?

image.png.cd1f6a17017d968e008fce7b4a67bbe3.png

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34 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

It's worth reemphaszing that there's a huge difference between covid scepticism and lockdown scepticism.

The current lockdown isn't 'in the middle' of responses to an above average flu season/defintiely not the equivalent of the Spainish flu,especially if you have a cancer that's going undiagnosed/elective surgery cancelled etc etc.

This exactly, the quillette piece alluded to previously was a hatchet job on a number of people who are sceptics of lockdown- not covid. Lockdown is and will be seen by history as a significant failing of the woke/weak west once the dust has settled. Stockholm syndrome is always a risk- and even now I have times when I think- maybe we are doing the right thing- until I deal with the suicidal patient with 2 under 12s on a Friday afternoon, or when my friend tells me of their 5 year old who has had a nervous breakdown due to fear of the virus,  all the way through to the ONS data showing home deaths are the highest they’ve ever been on record, or the data showing that UK deaths in 2020 are no worse than 12 years ago-  then I see straight again and realise what a capricious group of politicians and scientists we have leading our country.

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5 hours ago, Presuming Ed said:

Couldn't agree more with this. I admit I was swayed by the sceptics' arguments last summer as the doom predictions failed to materialise and the Nightingales laid empty.  My wife's an ICU nurse - as the days shortened, any talk about false positives got increasingly withering looks, then 9 people died on one shift and I decided to just be quiet.  No, it's not the plague, but then it's like nothing she's seen before either. 

This is probably the best thing I've read on the whole thing:

https://quillette.com/2021/01/16/rise-of-the-coronavirus-cranks/

I have no wish to denigrate your wife's experience.ICU's are busy at the minute for a number of reasons.Not least covid but also the fact that our govt knew the winter repsiratory season would be upon us now and appear to have made limited preparations.

I work as a Paramedic and my experience is more varied.I work very closely at times with people who are covid +ve,with pretty minimal PPE-just pointing out I have skin in the game-and whilst covid is a lot worse than the average flu season over the last five years,in terms of all cause mortality,we've lived through much worse years in terms of deaths per 1000 in the last twenty.

The problem is that clinicians mainly see what they see.Your wife will be seeing staff shortages,bed shortages,increased deaths and that would reflect her and her colleagues reality.I work pre hospitally and so would see the problems that arise from GP's not physically seeing pts,the rise and rise of mental health issues/effects of prolonged isolation.

My biggest issue with all that's written about covid is exactly that.It's all about covid.In my opinion we should be looking at the health of a nation as a whole before committing to extremes of responses.Our govt,along with many others,have merely copied the next country up the line from China at the top(although there are exceptions).

For me,I'm far more worried about my kids mental health and their economic/societal future than I am about my own covid risk-we all have our frailties.My mother,who has a few comorbidities and is at an age where she's predisposed to suffer with covid,is far more concerned about the my kids generation than she is about her own.

These are just my opinions-dyor etc.

 

Decl-I am a lockdown sceptic.I,(along with a small number of other clincians and non clincians),believe that there's little correlation to be found between lockdowns and the spread of covid.I also think the costs of the lockdown will far outwigh the benefits in a number of ways.

 

 

 

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Something interesting I just listened to.

In large scale money printing gold hit a bear market last time post 2011.

Why would it react different this time?

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4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Something interesting I just listened to.

In large scale money printing gold hit a bear market last time post 2011.

Why would it react different this time?

Everything seems to move the same/be correlated at the moment, I guess it will until suddenly it doesn't

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2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Lockdown is and will be seen by history as a significant failing of the woke/weak west once the dust has settled. 

I thought the victors wrote history, and the journalists who are woke, weak, neoliberals are the victors.

write

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5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Have you seen the balance sheet?

image.png.cd1f6a17017d968e008fce7b4a67bbe3.png

Alas I bought Petrofac before I did such things but what's wrong (or good) about it?  Very bad debt to equity?

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8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Decl-I am a lockdown sceptic.I,(along with a small number of other clincians and non clincians),believe that there's little correlation to be found between lockdowns and the spread of covid.I also think the costs of the lockdown will far outwigh the benefits in a number of ways.

SP, without wanting to derail the thread too much more, but ... what is the lockdown-sceptic take on New Zealand? Their domestic economy has seemingly been operating near normal (in terms of civic freedoms) for a few months now, capacity crowds at Rugby matches etc.

To the extent that a single case of community transmission is now news-worthy in NZ: https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300213129/covid19-northland-woman-tests-positive-for-covid19-after-leaving-managed-isolation

My layman's view: an elimination strategy *can* work if you live on an island and you're willing to do what's necessary (rather than what's popular).

Edit to add: the real mistake is weak/partial reactive measures with no strategic framework. Elimination can work. "Live with it" could have worked. This make-it-up-as-we-go-along middle ground we find ourselves in in the UK is the real disaster: neither fish nor fowl.

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51 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

SP, without wanting to derail the thread too much more, but ... what is the lockdown-sceptic take on New Zealand? Their domestic economy has seemingly been operating near normal (in terms of civic freedoms) for a few months now, capacity crowds at Rugby matches etc.

To the extent that a single case of community transmission is now news-worthy in NZ: https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300213129/covid19-northland-woman-tests-positive-for-covid19-after-leaving-managed-isolation

My layman's view: an elimination strategy *can* work if you live on an island and you're willing to do what's necessary (rather than what's popular).

Edit to add: the real mistake is weak/partial reactive measures with no strategic framework. Elimination can work. "Live with it" could have worked. This make-it-up-as-we-go-along middle ground we find ourselves in in the UK is the real disaster: neither fish nor fowl.

But i know from family and friends in NZ that some sectors are really hurting.  Agriculture, for example, with exports to China by air largely stopped - lots of the high end NZ stuff went by air.  Tourism, also dead (but I say fuckem to that bit, frankly).  

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AlfredTheLittle
1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

SP, without wanting to derail the thread too much more, but ... what is the lockdown-sceptic take on New Zealand? Their domestic economy has seemingly been operating near normal (in terms of civic freedoms) for a few months now, capacity crowds at Rugby matches etc.

To the extent that a single case of community transmission is now news-worthy in NZ: https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300213129/covid19-northland-woman-tests-positive-for-covid19-after-leaving-managed-isolation

My layman's view: an elimination strategy *can* work if you live on an island and you're willing to do what's necessary (rather than what's popular).

Edit to add: the real mistake is weak/partial reactive measures with no strategic framework. Elimination can work. "Live with it" could have worked. This make-it-up-as-we-go-along middle ground we find ourselves in in the UK is the real disaster: neither fish nor fowl.

Look at death rates. The countries with the highest covid death rates don't have exceptional death rates overall compared to previous years. Obviously if you obsessively focus on covid it's going to seem to be everywhere and you'll think everyone's in danger

Any country could operate the economy as near normal regardless of covid if it wanted to, just by stopping the hysterics, there's no need to eliminate covid first.

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5 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Look at death rates. The countries with the highest covid death rates don't have exceptional death rates overall compared to previous years. Obviously if you obsessively focus on covid it's going to seem to be everywhere and you'll think everyone's in danger

Any country could operate the economy as near normal regardless of covid if it wanted to, just by stopping the hysterics, there's no need to eliminate covid first.

In a country where the national conversation was predominantly/wholly rational, I'd agree (hence: Sweden?).

Can't see how the hysterics stop in the UK. We're a hysterical country with a hysterical media. Hysteria is, sadly, part and parcel of the national psyche.

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9 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Something interesting I just listened to.

In large scale money printing gold hit a bear market last time post 2011.

Why would it react different this time?

Last time the liquidity went on re-building bank balance sheets,this time its direct fiscal injections into the economy.

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Democorruptcy
17 hours ago, working woman said:

 

As the last few contributions to the thread have been about Technical Analysis, which I am finding interesting, as a novice, here is my small contribution - Golden Crosses (Buy Signals). 

BP      -  the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very near to making a Golden Cross.

           - the 100 and 200 day Moving Averages are nowhere near meeting yet.             

RDSB - the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages made a Golden Cross on the 4th Jan.

           - the 100 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very close to making a Golden Cross.  

I know this thread has a longer term view, but am aware some people may also want to do short-term trading as well. If anyone is interested, I am happy to post when I spot any Golden Crosses.

Selecting Jan 4th as the start date for RDSB it shows a big tick up. Robotic trades?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/share-charts

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Last time the liquidity went on re-building bank balance sheets,this time its direct fiscal injections into the economy.

So it's naturally flowing toward real things rather than spreadsheets?

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23 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

So it's naturally flowing toward real things rather than spreadsheets?

Last time it was replacing liquidity already destroyed and stuck in housing debts.This time its going to consumption.

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2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Chatting to a British friend long term resident in Norway last week. "Don't know why the media is always banging on about Sweden, Norway or Finland didnt lock down either. Just some minor restrictions at the start, and general guidance. The people here were having none of it, pushed back".

Then I heard yesterday that their PM went on national TV and actually apologised to the nation, saying we shouldn't have panicked in the spring.

He's living a completely normal life right now.

Oslo has just gone into shutdown. It also has the highest % asylum seeker and Muslim population in Norway.

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Democorruptcy
48 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Q's for discussion:

1. Should you home be included when calculating your portfolio?

2. Depending on 1. what % would be maximally prudent?

If it's mortgage free are you going to add the imputed rent?

What about your SIPP balance or the transfer value of a company pension?

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Last time it was replacing liquidity already destroyed and stuck in housing debts.This time its going to consumption.

Sorry I don't understand. How does fuelling consumption move PMs upward?

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23 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Sorry I don't understand. How does fuelling consumption move PMs upward?

PMs go up with the money base over the cycle,the money base is increasing at a very fast rate.Last time it went into a bank balance sheet black hole.

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1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Q's for discussion:

1. Should you home be included when calculating your portfolio?

2. Depending on 1. what % would be maximally prudent?

I count my home as minus £295 a month.Its paid for,but thats the cost of all the direct debits to keep it going.I count its capital value as zero even though its fully paid for.My fathers house is more likely to go in my portfolio when he pops than mine is.In my mind,i get the value of living in my house mortgage free,but its my children who get the capital value.

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5 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

In a country where the national conversation was predominantly/wholly rational, I'd agree (hence: Sweden?).

Can't see how the hysterics stop in the UK. We're a hysterical country with a hysterical media. Hysteria is, sadly, part and parcel of the national psyche.

Agreed.                                                                                                                                                                           But specifically regarding the West's covid policy response, it is why I think (occasional?) comment about it here on this thread is useful. After all we talk of 'irrational markets' and how we might try to understand and navigate them. Similarly, the 'hysterical society' we increasingly live in must also be understood - after all such terminology, for the majority of British citizens, used to be mostly narrative - however these concepts/interventions/behaviours are now directly impacting all our lives... I think we have been given glimpses of what DurhamBorn, has several times written, that if/when things turn totally to s**t he hopes to be no longer here!                                                                                                                                                                  ...Of course, it is simple for me to write this stuff, but quiet another thing to actually formulate a plan of escape from this ever encroaching asylum!?! 

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I count my home as minus £295 a month.Its paid for,but thats the cost of all the direct debits to keep it going.I count its capital value as zero even though its fully paid for.My fathers house is more likely to go in my portfolio when he pops than mine is.In my mind,i get the value of living in my house mortgage free,but its my children who get the capital value.

Precisely. And you (apologies if it wasn't you DB) opened a discussion recently about borrowing say 100k against your house and investing it in divi stocks to cover your house expenses, not to mention inflation inflating away much of your debt take-on. ...Though employing a strategy like this sounds a bit too much like becoming a 'mini hedge-fund'!!! ...Ultimately it comes down to personal risk/reward. But I think it is an interesting discussion.

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2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Chatting to a British friend long term resident in Norway last week. "Don't know why the media is always banging on about Sweden; Norway or Finland didnt lock down either. Just some minor restrictions at the start, and general guidance. The people here were having none of it, pushed back".

Then I heard yesterday that their PM went on national TV and actually apologised to the nation, saying we shouldn't have panicked in the spring.

He's living a completely normal life right now.

Its 2 weeks in quarantine for those of us who visit, was offered 2 weeks in a hotel then 2 weeks offshore but turned it down for the good of my mind.

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