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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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9 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Selecting Jan 4th as the start date for RDSB it shows a big tick up. Robotic trades?

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/share-charts

Defo not a buy/sell recommendation (discussion purposes only) but as a newbie the current monthly candle pattern looks key:

Capture.PNG.ddf1e9950f897499e52d446c09d4e47d.PNG

Similar (although milder) to varying extents with BP, etc and an example of the benefit(?) of candles over line charts - retraced to completely clear the previous low (Mar 20) candle before the latest rise.  Plus the Doji(ish) candle at the possible change in trend.  To be correct a Doji signifies market indecision so at the very least the market is pausing on whether to continue the downtrend.

Main issue to me now is whether it (and it's cohorts) will clear the obvious current resistance zone (something common across many FTSE stocks)?  Or are we starting a sideways channel, especially if we have a general market pullback?  The 33% November move was a bit excessive?  But that's the long range (monthly) chart so anything could happen (daily or weekly) before anything the monthlies may have to say actually happens!

Macro because this is a recurring theme atm, just well illustrated by RDSB.

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32 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

here you go, its happening right now;

image.png.557c880a3cd27df7c9cf2fb12e680ad2.png

Of course! :)  But BTC, who says? :ph34r:

PS: Absolutely my last crypto post here, on this lovely macro thread!

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2 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Might help with direction of travel Over next 5-10 years, CANZUK looks pretty much nailed on - Gregory Copley on this-

https://audioboom.com/posts/7777025-if-biden-abandons-the-uk-its-only-choice-will-be-canzuk-gregory-r-copley-defense-and-foreign?playlist_direction=forward

The political fallout alluded to between UK and USA in the Copley piece is interesting and Douglas Murray also weighs in on this with this piece-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9179953/DOUGLAS-MURRAY-Left-stop-fawning-Joe-Biden-fear-wont-end-well.html

 

All expected this.The UK will be helping Australia with weapons.Canada is almost certain to join in.People forget India as well.India hates China and i think will want to engage with Britain much more.BP will do very well as will BAT.

Of course everyone likes to say the UK is weak,but our hunter killer subs could take out the Chinese navy and blockade its ports in a few days.Australia and Canada will be getting a few i expect plus some frigates.

Biden waving the green flag will actually help create the biggest oil and gas boom in history.Suits us fine.

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36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been updating my oil and gas roadmap,and i think the parabolic rise will be brought forward to maybe 2025 from 2028 looking at lots of cross market work.We should start big structural under supply late this year or midway 2022.

LNG looks likely to make the biggest percentage gains,probably 300% to 500%,but oil wont be far behind.

I think lots of where we are going will mean there is no way we are getting 100% electric cars by 2030,not a chance.Instead i think we might see things like blue and bio methanol come to the fore.

Cheers, that's me strategy worked out then.  Buy loads, use the interim divs to pay for the heating oil and the final gains to buy a forest for the log burner or just move somewhere effing warm!

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Democorruptcy
17 minutes ago, Harley said:

Defo not a buy/sell recommendation (discussion purposes only) but as a newbie the current monthly candle pattern looks key:

Capture.PNG.ddf1e9950f897499e52d446c09d4e47d.PNG

Similar (although milder) to varying extents with BP, etc and an example of the benefit(?) of candles over line charts - retraced to completely clear the previous low (Mar 20) candle before the latest rise.  Plus the Doji(ish) candle at the possible change in trend.  To be correct a Doji signifies market indecision so at the very least the market is pausing on whether to continue the downtrend.

Main issue to me now is whether it (and it's cohorts) will clear the obvious current resistance zone (something common across many FTSE stocks)?  Or are we starting a sideways channel, especially if we have a general market pullback?  The 33% November move was a bit excessive?  But that's the long range (monthly) chart so anything could happen (daily or weekly) before anything the monthlies may have to say actually happens!

Macro because this is a recurring theme atm, just well illustrated by RDSB.

Just noticed looking at your quote of my post I put RSDB when I meant BP in reply to @working woman's post about the golden cross. It was BP that ticked up when it happened and RDSB is not there yet. After posting that I checked a few more but they didn't show upticks for the GC, though it seemed to act as a support level after, so far.

Your chart has a very condensed price axis. What are you using for it?

Your conclusion then is on the fence at the moment? I've been selling and taking March profits but don't know what to expect. I can see pluses and minuses.

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Democorruptcy
50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been updating my oil and gas roadmap,and i think the parabolic rise will be brought forward to maybe 2025 from 2028 looking at lots of cross market work.We should start big structural under supply late this year or midway 2022.

LNG looks likely to make the biggest percentage gains,probably 300% to 500%,but oil wont be far behind.

I think lots of where we are going will mean there is no way we are getting 100% electric cars by 2030,not a chance.Instead i think we might see things like blue and bio methanol come to the fore.

 

We could do with a market wobble before a mainstream under supply.  It's being greedy so soon after the other but I'm feeling I could have done better. Greed is good.

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5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

We could do with a market wobble before a mainstream under supply.  It's being greedy so soon after the other but I'm feeling I could have done better. Greed is good.

True,im very happy with profits,only thing i wish different was i went 15% oil 9% potash  and potash trebled oil went up 18%.I wish id gone in equal as i intended to and then upped oil later.Small niggle of course in the scheme of things.It shows how having multiple sectors matters though as i expected oil to rebound before potash and it was the other way around.

 

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37 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Just noticed looking at your quote of my post I put RSDB when I meant BP in reply to @working woman's post about the golden cross. It was BP that ticked up when it happened and RDSB is not there yet. After posting that I checked a few more but they didn't show upticks for the GC, though it seemed to act as a support level after, so far.

Your chart has a very condensed price axis. What are you using for it?

Your conclusion then is on the fence at the moment? I've been selling and taking March profits but don't know what to expect. I can see pluses and minuses.

The key point of my post (to keep it macro!) was it's a bit of the theme.  I could have used BP (indeed I did compare the two) but RDSB is the exemplar.  Yes, I think it's a key point (as always!).  A fair degree of interim and longer term resistance atm.  We could either break through or maybe enter a channel with a downturn.  The Stochastics have meandered with no clear breakout and indeed the faster is already slowing.  MACD may just kiss (again) but then is at a seminal low.  I'm fully allocated to both companies atm (and building into several others) for a buy and hold so I'll wait now to see as there's hopefully plenty of macro upside.  I just wish November hadn't been so much price gain wise.  The chart specific setup is to "auto (fits data to screen)" and it's a monthly time series.  I don't look at much else for buy and holds other than for context and tbh the price itself is of limited interest compared to the chart patterns and technicals!     

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Democorruptcy
4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

True,im very happy with profits,only thing i wish different was i went 15% oil 9% potash  and potash trebled oil went up 18%.I wish id gone in equal as i intended to and then upped oil later.Small niggle of course in the scheme of things.It shows how having multiple sectors matters though as i expected oil to rebound before potash and it was the other way around.

 

I did OK on MOS but that was a could do better, I went in a little too early. Since swapped that for BP for the divis. My biggest regret was thinking of going all in on oil at the bottom in a non tax wrapped account but decided against it largely for not wanting to get back in the tax loop. I should have just opened a big long position on my spread account.

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been updating my oil and gas roadmap,and i think the parabolic rise will be brought forward to maybe 2025 from 2028 looking at lots of cross market work.We should start big structural under supply late this year or midway 2022.

LNG looks likely to make the biggest percentage gains,probably 300% to 500%,but oil wont be far behind.

I think lots of where we are going will mean there is no way we are getting 100% electric cars by 2030,not a chance.Instead i think we might see things like blue and bio methanol come to the fore.

 

DB I always thought the notion of 100% electric cars by 2030 was fanciful I don't think by 2040 either

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

All expected this.The UK will be helping Australia with weapons.

Maybe helps explain BAE's dump and pump in Oct and Nov last year?  Rubbish debt ratio but one to watch?  And/or RR (poor financials again though?)?

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3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Another few weeks and we can drop another 20k into the S/S ISAs. Keep our gains out of the hands of the idiot pols. 

Budget first!  I'm bracing for a bad one - this is their best chance to really stick it to us before Covid quietens down, either out of reality (or is that catch up to reality?) or general fatigue.

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22 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

My biggest regret was thinking of going all in on oil at the bottom in a non tax wrapped account but decided against it largely for not wanting to get back in the tax loop.

?  Are you saying you didn't go all in or you went into the wrong type of account?  Interesting because I'm weighing up whether to use a tax wrapped or non-tax wrapped account for some trades.

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StrugglingMillennial

Just an interesting little chart ive been following over the last year.

I dont know if this has been posted before, probably nothing amazing but alot of stocks seem to have followed its pattern.

5208_T9VhZPAY_l.jpeg.jpg.75aa13d68974d22774af8f342f094c6f.jpg

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20 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB I always thought the notion of 100% electric cars by 2030 was fanciful I don't think by 2040 either

I think metroland has an awakening on this and all the other myopic/fanciful/elitist postmodernist tat in their heads (e.g. log burners, heat pumps, etc), hopefully before the pitchfork stage.

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Democorruptcy
19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB I always thought the notion of 100% electric cars by 2030 was fanciful I don't think by 2040 either

Our latest rule is no new ICE cars from 2030 but old ones are OK. New Hybrid cars and vans can be sold until 2035. There is going to be a consultation about HGV but no date set for it.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/electric-power/111820-uk-government-brings-forward-ban-on-new-ice-cars-10-years-to-2030

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9 minutes ago, Harley said:

Budget first!  I'm bracing for a bad one - this is their best chance to really stick it to us before Covid quietens down, either out of reality (or is that catch up to reality?) or general fatigue.

I'm thinking definitely the 40% tax relief to go. 

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just been updating my oil and gas roadmap,and i think the parabolic rise will be brought forward to maybe 2025 from 2028 looking at lots of cross market work.We should start big structural under supply late this year or midway 2022.

LNG looks likely to make the biggest percentage gains,probably 300% to 500%,but oil wont be far behind.

I think lots of where we are going will mean there is no way we are getting 100% electric cars by 2030,not a chance.Instead i think we might see things like blue and bio methanol come to the fore.

 

Would that then mean any huge inflationary dislocation/collapse is bought forward to closer mid decade rather than end decade, a shame if it does

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Chewing Grass
5 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I'm thinking definitely the 40% tax relief to go. 

Along with the work ethic of this countries most skilled workers as there will be little incentive for pulling your tripe out for Big Co if you are salaried or on 1x overtime rates.

Back in the 70s and early 80s they had to pay 1.5x in the week and 2x at weekend because of the tax situation.

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Democorruptcy
6 minutes ago, Harley said:

?  Are you saying you didn't go all in or you went into the wrong type of account?  Interesting because I'm weighing up whether to use a tax wrapped or non-tax wrapped account for some trades.

I didn't go 'all in' with the money outside my SIPP and ISA, possible house purchase money. I didn't want a non tax wrapped account but should have gone long on my spread account. I wouldn't have declared winnings on that. Last week before I started selling I had over £200k in BP/RDSB tax wrapped. I know you aren't supposed to put too much in one share but I get carried away if I smell value. :$

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