Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

When it's running on vegetable oil.

...and smells of chips!

[MrXxxx]

15 hours ago, Harley said:

?  Are you saying you didn't go all in or you went into the wrong type of account?  Interesting because I'm weighing up whether to use a tax wrapped or non-tax wrapped account for some trades.

This is an interesting question that I have been thinking about for a couple of weeks I.e when to buy in a trading account and when to buy into an isa. I assume if you think something is going to make massive capital gains (or is as an income provider from divis) its best in the isa, if not then use CG allowance in trading account....but when we buy do we not hope all trades will go stratospheric?

Thoughts people?

[Bobthebuilder]

Just now, JMD said:

...and smells of chips!

About 15 years ago I stuck a load of veg oil in a Kangoo van. Worked fine.

[Popuplights]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

About 15 years ago I stuck a load of veg oil in a Kangoo van. Worked fine.

Yes, used to stick veg oil into my old Peugeot 806. Easy decision when veg oil was less than a pound a litre. Take a funnel to the supermarket, fill up there and chuck the empties in their bins!!

[leonardratso]

last one, i promise, right now;

[Hancock]

36 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Yes, used to stick veg oil into my old Peugeot 806. Easy decision when veg oil was less than a pound a litre. Take a funnel to the supermarket, fill up there and chuck the empties in their bins!!

Do you get the same miles per litre?

[Popuplights]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

Do you get the same miles per litre?

Yes, used to mix it 50/50 with diesel. Couldn't tell the difference. You can't do it with modern diesels though, something to do with the pump lubrication

[Bricormortis]

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

he loves pi, not the chicken variety, the 22/7 one and somehow pi is worked into everything predicted at some point.

I used to listen years back, never subscribed though, but got bored of it, from what i could see the predictions looked to be no worse or better than anyone else's in the same boat/genre. Its difficult to know since there are broad vague brush strokes that could be interpreted as being correct or not, but not really specific enough to test or backtest.

Im not convinced myself, but maybe others see it more clearly or can actually extract a specific winning meaning from his blathering to work on?

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

This is an interesting question that I have been thinking about for a couple of weeks I.e when to buy in a trading account and when to buy into an isa. I assume if you think something is going to make massive capital gains (or is as an income provider from divis) its best in the isa, if not then use CG allowance in trading account....but when we buy do we not hope all trades will go stratospheric?

Thoughts people?

Anything that i intend to hold for more than 2 or 3 years is in a sipp or isa. Out of that, stuff that could have large capital gains is more tilted to the isa

[geordie_lurch]

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

[AWW]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

[Errol]

What is the West doing?

 

China to build 30 'fully connected' 5G factories by 2023

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has said the nation plans to accelerate its rollout of wireless technology, setting up 30 "fully connected" 5G factories in ten key industries in the next two years.

The action plan highlighted that the next three years (2021-2023) will be a period of rapid growth for China's industrial Internet. During that period emerging business formats will prevail, including intelligent manufacturing, network-based collaboration, and personalized customization, MIIT said.

MIIT data shows that China has already developed over 70 industrial internet platforms, connecting around 60 million sets of industrial equipment and more than 400,000 industrial enterprises.

https://www.rt.com/business/513511-china-30-connected-5g-factories/

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Errol said:

including intelligent manufacturing, network-based collaboration, and personalized customization

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

This is an interesting question that I have been thinking about for a couple of weeks I.e when to buy in a trading account and when to buy into an isa. I assume if you think something is going to make massive capital gains (or is as an income provider from divis) its best in the isa, if not then use CG allowance in trading account....but when we buy do we not hope all trades will go stratospheric?

Thoughts people?

For me, it's about utlising CGT gains, allowances, and losses AND being able to reclaim foreign withholding taxes when the div income ever becomes big enough.  I need to sit down and model it.  Sadly I'm probably not making enough to warrant the thought ATM!

[Harley]

1 minute ago, Chewing Grass said:

This is where the West, especially Germany is going to fall flat on its face as they are too inflexible to even contemplate personalised customisation of product.

I was in Germany during the dot.com boom and bust.  It was great to see the younger Germans break free and become quite independent and entrepreneurial but sad when that got crushed in the bust.

[Noallegiance]

30 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Polticians warning of moral hazard.

Interesting.

Hopefully they'll get ignored just like the coal thing.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bricormortis said:

Viceroy / anyone......

What is Martin Armstrong's track record on forecasting ?

I enjoy reading the snippits you post, but calling his computer Socrates has something of the showman about it and then there is an under tone of hysteria. Combining those 2 traits makes me think of a particular pathology,such as in Freudian terms ( i know i know ) a "genital hysteric" perhaps.

When I first read the latest snippit above I felt he had contradicted himself,   re reading his thoughts im not so sure now. Any ways what are the chances of his calls being correct ?

Makes me pause to wonder how far/deep we need to go with this macro forecast stuff.  Not to say we don't but the extent.  For example, I started off doing deep dives on our beloved industries to the exclusion of others.  Fair enough but that has matured into an alert system that has an open mind regarding anything that pops up and looking for trends in the actual current data.  I don't need to know the whole book in advance but am sufficiently happy to be on alert for such things.  So timing calls really are unnecessary for me.  I do like to seek and test hypotheses though based on actual tradable data.  Somewhere in there lies the optimal balance between the two.

[Noallegiance]

42 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Shell are down nearly 3% again today and BP are trailing behind as they are only down 2.2% so far but it's only Monday

I know this thread is all about the macro but it 'feels' to me like several of the oilies are going to continue to drop a decent amount amount from here this week but hopefully I'm wrong and they will level off and consolidate before heading higher again 

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

[Loki]

42 minutes ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Someone should send those fucking idiots the gridwatch site address

[janch]

Another thing missing from the debate about EVs etc is the terrible pollution mainly in China and parts of Africa form the mining for rare metals used in the manufacture of new tech.  The greenies ignore this aspect:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9179751/Toxic-secrets-mobile-phone-called-green-world-depends-mining-metals.htm

The ESG credentials are terrible when this is taken into account.

[Democorruptcy]

25 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

I have a tab open for ISA, SIPP and a couple of potential trades. If the prices aren't updating in the ISA, there is no chance of the trade getting a quote. By comparison the IG Index prices are updating fine. It's like HL lost a link to the LSE but it seems OK now.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, AWW said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bank-of-england-told-to-get-out-of-oil-and-gas-bonds-qfgrtcvms

Ex-Governor Carney is now on the climate change side.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/12/01/mark-carneys-new-climate-change-job-comes-with-new-clout.html

 

[geordie_lurch]

54 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm trying to by more BP and Repsol on the dip without success. HL site having issues.

They are only a few % away from the 'stop losses' I set to ditch 50% of BP and Shell just in case they re test the March lows so I can bank some profits in this Stocks and Shares ISA. However I'm fully prepared I might have to buy them again for anything upto 10% more than I sell them for if my gamble doesn't pay off.

[JMD]

This guy's channel is interesting. We post many macro podcasts here which i find great, the opinions of the professional commentators are useful, but this is something slightly different...    

I've linked two of his videos below, first showing his preferred 35%gold/65%stock portfolio, and why it beats other portfolio mix/allocations. The other is his portfolio re-balancing strategy. Great thing is, as he is a mathematician, the videos take you through his 'proof'.

I'm no mathematician, but DurhamBorn or others here might find the maths side insightful (or on the other hand, might say the maths is garbage!).  

Anyway, due to this guys investing success he is actually retiring early, in the next month or so. He will apparently continue to post his You Tube videos, but will also be starting a subscription website where he'll do even deeper dives and research into gold... he sees a money collapse coming because of massive fiat printing, etc, so his investment risks/time-horizons chime with this thread. 

By Request Mixes of Stocks, Bonds, and Gold - YouTube

Asymptotic Rebalancing and Why the Financial Experts get Gold Wrong - YouTube