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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.These guys arent stupid.They must see the macro picture growing.Its likely they know the potential and are talking stocks down so they can load up for their families trust funds.Those woke fund managers  are being played by masters of the game.

Exactly this DB I'm sure that there are 100s of billions of dollars of genuine smart money within the trillions of dollars of managed money waiting to pounce. Those masters of the game will have breathtaking levels of nuance, guile and finesse in their strategising.

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4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly that, which I have now clarified.

Hang on. If you were born early 80’s wouldn’t you qualify as a millennial?

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Hang on. If you were born early 80’s wouldn’t you qualify as a millennial?

On the cusp of Gen-X/millennial. But the first millennials are getting to be old, grey bastards too nowadays, time flies eh? :)

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4 hours ago, JMD said:

Why do so many US politicians appear so ancient - or am i just being ageist? And I'm not just referring to sleepy Joe Biddon. What i mean is here in the UK our old politicians are still pretty healthy looking and also mentally agile, whereas in the US they typically look as though they are about to drop dead (there, i said it!). i.e. Yellon is 74 and looks and sounds every one of her very creaky 74 years.

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

Yes, Hong Kong does in a way.  If you get share tranches, and they are worth 10k a year you get taxed on that.  Then if the next years tranches comes in and the shares have gone up to 12k in value, you get taxed 2k extra even though you haven't sold anything.

It's a bit stupid, but they do it to expats to stop them getting paid zero whilst in HK, moving away, and then cashing in all the shares.

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7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Yes, Hong Kong does in a way.  If you get share tranches, and they are worth 10k a year you get taxed on that.  Then if the next years tranches comes in and the shares have gone up to 12k in value, you get taxed 2k extra even though you haven't sold anything.

It's a bit stupid, but they do it to expats to stop them getting paid zero whilst in HK, moving away, and then cashing in all the shares.

They do something similar in the Netherlands. There’s no specific capital gains, or dividend taxation. Instead you pay an effective 1.6% wealth tax rate (technically it’s 40% on the average bank interest rate, but after interest rates dropped they kept this interest rate at a floored 4%) on all your savings (cash, equities etc) based on it’s value at the start of the year. 

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Swedish Doctor predicts end of covid

Sancho predicts Sleepy Joe to solve covid crisis in his first 100 days ....you read it here first.

Buckle up for the rollercoatster ride.....

via Lockdown Sceptics

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see.

shareantibodiessweden.jpg?resize=470%2C2

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

Apart from that, there is another form of bias that will tend to make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. This is the fact that people who already know they’ve had covid generally don’t keep re-testing themselves to confirm it. This group gets bigger and bigger as more and more people get covid, and this will eventually make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. So at some point, there is an inflection point. In the early pandemic, a larger share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would get from a random sample. In the late stages of the pandemic, a smaller share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would see in a random sample.

In the last few weeks the number of people being treated for covid in hospitals in Sweden has been dropping rapidly, as has the share of PCR-tests that are coming back positive. There is much discussion in the media about what the cause might be. Everyone seems to be very surprised. Is it because people are better at working from home? Or because people aren’t traveling as much? Or because more people are wearing face masks?

No-one is discussing the obvious explanation – that so many people have now had covid, and have developed immunity, that the virus is having difficulty finding new hosts. In other words, Sweden’s oddly controversial “herd immunity” strategy worked.

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

But let’s assume 10,323 is correct, for the sake of argument. If 40% of Swedes have had covid, that gives an infection fatality rate of 0,25%. It’s a little higher than the global infection fatality rate determined by professor John Ioannidis, which is likely due to the fact that Sweden’s population is older than the global average. But it’s not much higher, and certainly not high enough to motivate the large scale harm imposed on us by the powers that be. That’s why the fear mongers don’t want you to see that graph. And that’s why I hope you will help me spread it far and wide.

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Yadda yadda yadda
13 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Swedish Doctor predicts end of covid

Sancho predicts Sleepy Joe to solve covid crisis in his first 100 days ....you read it here first.

Buckle up for the rollercoatster ride.....

via Lockdown Sceptics

Here’s a graph that doesn’t get shown in the mass media, and that I’m sure all those who want you to stay fearful of covid don’t want you to see.

shareantibodiessweden.jpg?resize=470%2C2

There is so much that is interesting about this graph. Like I said, it begins in week 28, in other words in early July, which is around the time the first Swedish covid wave was bottoming out. At the time, I personally thought this was due to enough of the population having developed immunity to covid, but we now know that was wrong. Rather, it was due to seasonality – in other words, summer caused covid to disappear.

Your body generally doesn’t keep producing antibodies forever after an infection, rather they wane. Of course, this doesn’t mean immunity is waning, as I discussed on this blog a while back. Although the actively antibody producing cells disappear, memory cells remain, ready to be activated at short notice if you get re-exposed to the pathogen.

After an initial reduction, the proportion with antibodies stabilized at around 10% in August, and stayed that way until October, when it started to rise, in line with the beginning of the second wave. And it’s literally kept rising by a percentage point or two, every week, all autumn and winter so far. In the second week of January 2021, 40% of those tested in Sweden had antibodies to covid.

Funnily enough, mainstream media has so far shown relatively little interest in publicizing this astounding fact. The trend is real, and cannot be denied.

Apart from that, there is another form of bias that will tend to make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. This is the fact that people who already know they’ve had covid generally don’t keep re-testing themselves to confirm it. This group gets bigger and bigger as more and more people get covid, and this will eventually make the proportion with antibodies seem lower than it really is. So at some point, there is an inflection point. In the early pandemic, a larger share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would get from a random sample. In the late stages of the pandemic, a smaller share of those being tested will have antibodies than you would see in a random sample.

In the last few weeks the number of people being treated for covid in hospitals in Sweden has been dropping rapidly, as has the share of PCR-tests that are coming back positive. There is much discussion in the media about what the cause might be. Everyone seems to be very surprised. Is it because people are better at working from home? Or because people aren’t traveling as much? Or because more people are wearing face masks?

No-one is discussing the obvious explanation – that so many people have now had covid, and have developed immunity, that the virus is having difficulty finding new hosts. In other words, Sweden’s oddly controversial “herd immunity” strategy worked.

At the end of the second week of January, 10,323 people had died of/with covid in Sweden. In fact, the real number is probably much lower. A recent study carried out here in Stockholm found that only 17% of those who supposedly died of covid in care homes actually had covid as the primary cause of death.

But let’s assume 10,323 is correct, for the sake of argument. If 40% of Swedes have had covid, that gives an infection fatality rate of 0,25%. It’s a little higher than the global infection fatality rate determined by professor John Ioannidis, which is likely due to the fact that Sweden’s population is older than the global average. But it’s not much higher, and certainly not high enough to motivate the large scale harm imposed on us by the powers that be. That’s why the fear mongers don’t want you to see that graph. And that’s why I hope you will help me spread it far and wide.

Any information on how many people have been tested for antibodies in Sweden? Is it a widespread testing regime? Or is it people who think they've had it?

What antibody testing have we had in this country?

Age range and sex of those with antibodies could also be interesting. I remember a theory that older people were more likely to have an antibody response whilst younger people could often fight it off with T cells.

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geordie_lurch
34 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Bankrupt company way beyond its sell by date going INTO the S&P xD

 

"Update 4:40pm (USA): Well that escalated quickly. Just 20 minutes after Musk's tweet, GME exploded to $240" as explained at Zerohedge here :o

2021-01-26_13-40-18.jpg?itok=_2AGV4aV

 

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7 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Any information on how many people have been tested for antibodies in Sweden? Is it a widespread testing regime? Or is it people who think they've had it?

What antibody testing have we had in this country?

Age range and sex of those with antibodies could also be interesting. I remember a theory that older people were more likely to have an antibody response whilst younger people could often fight it off with T cells.

83,000 done in three weeks in July,so msot likely a decent sample over the year.

In the UK we've had very poor antibody testing>at my work,they went home before the night shift booked on even though we'd been promised it.

You're right re the data.SHame we don't have any.

https://www.thelocal.se/20200723/14-of-antibody-tests-positive-in-sweden

 

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5 hours ago, JMD said:

Taxes on 'unrealised' capitol gains. Can you tax 'unrealised' gains, does any country do this?

NZ does - it's called Foreign Investment Funds (FIF) tax - essentially a wealth tax.  Nz+some Aussie securities are exempt, so based upon the value at the beginning of the year, 5% of your total pot of overseas securities/savings accounts etc is taxed at your income tax rate. Diverts Kiwis from investing abroad with the intent to keep their money in NZ and invest in the local stock market which is tiny. Kiwis therefore mostly invest in houses as there's no inheritance tax and until fairly recently there was no capital gains on investment properties. I know loads of boomers with a portfolio of IPs. Now they have the bright line test of 5 years; outside of this there is no capital gains to pay on your investment properties if you sold them.

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Here we go......

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2021/01/26/uk-unemployment-rises-above-7-and-towards-10/

UK unemployment rises above 7% and towards 10%

Posted on January 26, 2021

There are many different ways of gaining an insight into an economy and the labour market is one of the most significant.

If we now switch to the actual numbers we are told this.

The UK unemployment rate, in the three months to November 2020, was estimated at 5.0%, 1.2 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.

But we see if we go through the numbers that some 1.6 million or so are being kept in employment by the furlough scheme.

Prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic there were on average 2 to 2.5 million people temporarily away from work. Experimental estimates based on returns for individual weeks show that the number of people temporarily away from work rose to around 7.9 million people in April 2020 but has fallen to around 4.1 million people in November 2020.

This is a very broad brush measure but it compares to this.

For September to November 2020, an estimated 1.72 million people were unemployed, up 418,000 on the same period the previous year and up 202,000 on the quarter.

Report this So nearly double and if I was being harsh I would add in 400,000 from the number below too.

There were also around 278,000 people away from work because of the pandemic and receiving no pay in November 2020; this has fallen from around 658,000 in April 2020.

That is how the unemployment rate could be as high as 10%.

 

Employment

Here the situation is a little simpler.

Since February 2020, the number of payroll employees has fallen by 828,000; however, the larger falls were seen at the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

 

Comment

We have seen over the past 24 hours how a loose understanding of statistics can lead to trouble as 8% of the people being over 65 in the AstraZeneca covid vaccine sample got reported as an 8% efficacy rate. I am being polite saying loose understanding as darker forces look to be at play. This in another form is what is happening with the reporting of a 5% unemployment rate which is clearly wrong but gets reported anyway. It looks to be somewhere north of 7% and up to around 10% but we cannot say with any precision.

 

The situation is even worse when we shift to earnings. Regular readers will be aware that I have been a frequent critic of the way the numbers omit important sectors such as the self-employed and in fact any business with less than ten employees. But right now the structure of it ( approved back in the day by a familiar figure Dr.Martin Weale) means the numbers are worse than useless in my opinion.

In fact things are so bad that a number criticised in 1983 by Yes Prime Minister “nobody believes the unemployment numbers” is in fact more on the mark. I am referring here to the claimant count.

The Claimant Count increased slightly in December 2020, to 2.6 million; this includes both those working with low income or hours and those who are not working.

It would give us an unemployment rate of the order of 7.6%.

As to wages well the actual numbers seem to be showing a fall.

This is particularly important to consider at present because both of the two main sources of information about number of employee paid through payroll (HM Revenue and Custom’s Pay As You Earn Real Time Information, and Office for National Statistics’ Monthly Wages and Salaries Survey) identify a year-on-year fall of close to 3%.

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On 26/01/2021 at 10:48, sancho panza said:

Funny you shoudl psot this,I was thinking about the fall of Rome the other day with regard to the USA.End of an era.Just hope we get one more flight to safety in the dollar.

This forecast from 2014 may be on time;

'...This is warning that the ultimate spike high (USD) that will break the US economy appears off into 2021. This is where we expect to see a capital contraction into the USA from outside the country..'
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@sancho panza add in tax credits etc and unemployment is towards 30% in the UK now i suspect.Government created a disaster in welfare over 20 years,now they will see what they have created.Massive amounts of people who wont work,or work more than a few hours.Millions more council and state workers not really needed.The UK is now hugely exposed to inflation.As soon as it goes over 3%,as it will soon enough the BOE will stop funding the deficit.Then the government will have an £150 billion structural deficit on its hands.They are desperate for the US to inject massive amounts of fiscal liquidity as cover for them.If the Fed stops,the UK goes bust.I think everything is now in place to see velocity rocket as we leave lockdown.

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Democorruptcy
23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza add in tax credits etc and unemployment is towards 30% in the UK now i suspect.Government created a disaster in welfare over 20 years,now they will see what they have created.Massive amounts of people who wont work,or work more than a few hours.Millions more council and state workers not really needed.The UK is now hugely exposed to inflation.As soon as it goes over 3%,as it will soon enough the BOE will stop funding the deficit.Then the government will have an £150 billion structural deficit on its hands.They are desperate for the US to inject massive amounts of fiscal liquidity as cover for them.If the Fed stops,the UK goes bust.I think everything is now in place to see velocity rocket as we leave lockdown.

"structural deficit" always reminds me of "The Trillion Pound Horror Story" before our debt went up by 100%! Thicko MPs not knowing the difference between deficit and national debt. Just after the MPs finish is cracking scene with a bath full of water representing debt and an egg cup of £6bn in cuts!

 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Bankrupt company way beyond its sell by date going INTO the S&P xD

 

So what is going on for these companies to go from being worth 3USD per share to 148USD in a mere 6 months, presume its Americas version of the recently bankrupt "Game" store.

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2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

So what is going on for these companies to go from being worth 3USD per share to 148USD in a mere 6 months, presume its Americas version of the recently bankrupt "Game" store.

https://www.cityam.com/reddit-day-traders-out-for-blood-as-they-tell-gamestop-short-sellers-we-want-to-see-the-loss-porn/

OK i see now, got to like this comment-   If we mess up as bad as they [Citron Research] did, we’re wiped out, we have to start from scratch and are back to giving handjobs behind the dumpster at Wendy’s.

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An even better explanation of the financial warfare being waged by Gen Z and the millenials.  Yay to them.

https://jeromysonne.com/the-nihilism-of-r-wallstreetbets/

when the system is fixed to a level that you can't succeed by playing by the rules, you either have to stop playing or break the rules.

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Kobayashi_Maru

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3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

An even better explanation of the financial warfare being waged by Gen Z and the millenials.  Yay to them.

https://jeromysonne.com/the-nihilism-of-r-wallstreetbets/

when the system is fixed to a level that you can't succeed by playing by the rules, you either have to stop playing or break the rules.

https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Kobayashi_Maru

Just found this,its fucken fantastic what they're doing. 21stCentury plebs fight back.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-26/will-wallstreetbets-face-sec-scrutiny-after-gamestop-rally

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I just spent ten minutes having a read of https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

I'm pissing myself at what's going on with GameStop. Now they're going to do it with Nokia and Blackberry.

Almost worth chucking a few hundred quid at, just for the lols.

Just need to get them to turn their attention to CNA.

EDIT: There's a guy on the WSB subreddit who stuck 50k into GME  last year and is now worth 20m. Can't wait for the film.

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32 minutes ago, AWW said:

EDIT: There's a guy on the WSB subreddit who stuck 50k into GME  last year and is now worth 20m. Can't wait for the film.

I can't help but notice that this is never me.

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Talking Monkey
33 minutes ago, AWW said:

I just spent ten minutes having a read of https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/

I'm pissing myself at what's going on with GameStop. Now they're going to do it with Nokia and Blackberry.

Almost worth chucking a few hundred quid at, just for the lols.

Just need to get them to turn their attention to CNA.

EDIT: There's a guy on the WSB subreddit who stuck 50k into GME  last year and is now worth 20m. Can't wait for the film.

Bloody hell if he held on all the way up then well played takes huge discipline

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35 minutes ago, AWW said:

 

EDIT: There's a guy on the WSB subreddit who stuck 50k into GME  last year and is now worth 20m. Can't wait for the film.

I cant get how a bunch of people on a Reddit forum have managed to collectively get billion of dollars.

Surely this guy with £20 million sells as do many like him and it all hits the fan, with most of them losing whatever they put in.

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hmm 2.4 M members on there, say 10 or 20% hoyed in with say £10K each?

or how about 30-40% with 1-5K each?

 

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41 minutes ago, AWW said:

Almost worth chucking a few hundred quid at, just for the lols.

I did this and came out with $2,000. Turns out I'm a wimp as I'd have $10k if I'd held on :CryBaby:

Screenshot 2021-01-27 at 00.17.41.png

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