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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Just now, Harley said:

A bit but hopefully the right kind.  Any concerns about paper PMs or ETF type stuff?

yeah.  I would never hold paper gold unless I lived somewhere like China (where you want stuff outside the country in case you need to flee).

The ETFs - yes and no.  I have no doubt, none, that in the next BK some ETFs will prove to be worthless - they will be synthetics based on magic numbers and bullshit.  I think - and I could be wrong - that ETFs like GDX and GDXJ are not magic numbers and bullshit; as far as I can recall when I investigated them 5+ years back they actually bought shares in mining companies.

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Any thoughts on how all this potentially wider hedge fund trouble could play out for us?  Derivative central (remember DBs comment a while back)?  Threats and opportunities?  Maybe a default sector rotation?  Maybe pullbacks in commodities with a chance to top up?  Maybe a move to USD and USTs or will this mark a turning from that?  Or just kids and their loud music?  I need to review the data tonight for some trades, but also need to step back and look at allocations and risks.  Will be in the Asian markets later to kick things off.

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10 minutes ago, Harley said:

Any thoughts on how all this potentially wider hedge fund trouble could play out for us?  Derivative central (remember DBs comment a while back)?  Threats and opportunities?  Maybe a default sector rotation?  Maybe pullbacks in commodities with a chance to top up?  Maybe a move to USD and USTs or will this mark a turning from that?  Or just kids and their loud music?  I need to review the data tonight for some trades, but also need to step back and look at allocations and risks.  Will be in the Asian markets later to kick things off.

Buy the new Reddit etf? 🤪

I do like the meme speak, buying 1 share of GME is “going full retard”

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1 minute ago, Sugarlips said:

Buy the new Reddit etf? 🤪

I do like the meme speak, buying 1 share of GME is “going full retard”

Why do people think there is always a sector rotation? A crash is a crash. Cash is king. The most undervalued asset right now.

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Democorruptcy
15 minutes ago, Harley said:

Any thoughts on how all this potentially wider hedge fund trouble could play out for us?  Derivative central (remember DBs comment a while back)?  Threats and opportunities?  Maybe a default sector rotation?  Maybe pullbacks in commodities with a chance to top up?  Maybe a move to USD and USTs or will this mark a turning from that?  Or just kids and their loud music?  I need to review the data tonight for some trades, but also need to step back and look at allocations and risks.  Will be in the Asian markets later to kick things off.

Well I don't want this lot to go all climate changey and bugger the oil firms up somehow.

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5 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Buy the new Reddit etf? 🤪

I do like the meme speak, buying 1 share of GME is “going full retard”

and they are all autistic retards

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2 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Why do people think there is always a sector rotation? A crash is a crash. Cash is king. The most undervalued asset right now.

got to agree, 200k out of? 1.6 or 1.8M ? could be a start i suppose, im getting a good old drubbing all over the shop, im not that worried myself but doesnt seem like a big enough hard enough sell off to be the BK, but who knows eh.

I must admit ive been dribbling my work pension to cash every few weeks, so its now 30% in cash and the rest all over the shop, but i might step that up in preparation for a wait out and then a buy back.

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36 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Why do people think there is always a sector rotation? A crash is a crash. Cash is king. The most undervalued asset right now.

IMO we will get one at some point.

Currently, a relative play.  Short covering by selling longs and what are the longs in.....and what not?  Sure an initial wipe, to varying degrees.  Maybe an options play?

Edit: Many of our beloveds haven't done that well on a comparable basis - the longs, and profits for others, are in tech, etc.

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Looks like I called the top a few weeks ago to much derision on here. 200k of my dads pension gone. 

I sold out 10% of my total holdings over the past week or so.  All those stocks are down a bit since, which is nice.  I want to see what becomes of the Gamestop reddit raids before I go back in.  

 

The holdings were all in long term inflationary stocks, so I do want them to be in my portfolio in 5 years, but as someone smarter than me on here said, sell and then buy more units, get more dividends.

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30 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

got to agree, 200k out of? 1.6 or 1.8M ? could be a start i suppose, im getting a good old drubbing all over the shop, im not that worried myself but doesnt seem like a big enough hard enough sell off to be the BK, but who knows eh.

I must admit ive been dribbling my work pension to cash every few weeks, so its now 30% in cash and the rest all over the shop, but i might step that up in preparation for a wait out and then a buy back.

Majority of mine are doing fine.  HK has been under a cloud but shows signs of life, Japan mixed but maybe topping so a pullback due, Russia similar, down a bit with resources overall but a potential dip buying opportunity in the right ones, UK doing OK with even the dogs like Microfocus up well. But as I said, we are at a key point to either break up or head down to maybe start a channel (or complete that "W" they once talked about).  PMs, left to their own, maybe need time to complete their pullback and bonds still looking weak.  But I've a similar cash allocation which is a worry at times like this even in short term bond ETFs.  Thats all looking at the monthly technicals and what's coming to them.  With 30% I can hedge the risks by taking the hit and adding later if need be at the same time as not having to find a re-entry.  I never want to be all in or all out, nor worry about daily moves.  If however I was fully allocated then I would be tempted to trade a top slice of my holds now and then.

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ThoughtCriminal
24 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

Looks like I called the top a few weeks ago to much derision on here. 200k of my dads pension gone. 

Oh I can beat that. 

 

I said about 6 months ago on here that the likes of Robin Hood marked a paradigm shift and could have the power to shift markets. 

 

I wasn't clever enough to make money out of this stunning foresight though, so I'll just gloat momentarily and then I'll shut the fuck up 🤷‍♂️

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Can one of you crystal ball guys tell me when Reddit are gonna find out about FRES?

Also, who cares when this market top is. Unless big oil gets taken out, in which case we're back to the stone age anyway, we're positioning for 5-7 years out.

Would love to see a decent pump on silver here though. Fingers crossed.

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33 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

got to agree, 200k out of? 1.6 or 1.8M ? could be a start i suppose, im getting a good old drubbing all over the shop, im not that worried myself but doesnt seem like a big enough hard enough sell off to be the BK, but who knows eh.

I must admit ive been dribbling my work pension to cash every few weeks, so its now 30% in cash and the rest all over the shop, but i might step that up in preparation for a wait out and then a buy back.

1.7m top

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2 minutes ago, RJT1979 said:

1.7m top

12% would not bother me if my rationale remains valid and I don't need the money tomorrow.  Given my abilities, I'm more likely to lose more trying to avoid it!!!

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41 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well I don't want this lot to go all climate changey and bugger the oil firms up somehow.

I don't think they will.  Looks like a lot are ex-4chan.  That's about as far away from wokedom as you can get.

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3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

image.thumb.jpeg.1a6d7996085b32e747bedd85c2863d5b.jpegimage.thumb.jpeg.9829f903d98860190e248905f4e4a3f0.jpeg
 

It’s somewhat the kindling of a financial revolution. However, I suspect very soon it will be stamped down upon as financial terrorism. :)

But then maybe it would just pop up or morph somewhere else.  We used to have an empire and wars to keep ours occupied.  Gotta keep your troops busy!

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ThoughtCriminal

Well it looks like they're going to make a concerted effort against silver next. The reddit generals are marshaling the troops as we speak. 

 

This will be different gravy though. The CIA will start suiciding them before they let them get away with this. 

 

Still, I have to salute them for having the balls, audacity and stupidity to think they can pull it off. 

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Democorruptcy

The Big Short's Michael Burry and his Gamestop plan is in this article from Sep 2019.

Though he is supposedly against what's happening now

Quote

 

However, what is going on now – there should be legal and regulatory repercussions. This is unnatural, insane, and dangerous.”

Burry, whose investment firm reported owning a 2.4% stake in GameStop as of Sept. 30, said in an email interview on Tuesday that he’s now “neither long nor short.” He declined to comment on when he sold the stock.

https://bioreports.net/michael-burry-calls-gamestop-rally-unnatural-insane-dangerous/

 

 

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Democorruptcy
11 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well it looks like they're going to make a concerted effort against silver next. The reddit generals are marshaling the troops as we speak. 

 

This will be different gravy though. The CIA will start suiciding them before they let them get away with this. 

 

Still, I have to salute them for having the balls, audacity and stupidity to think they can pull it off. 

"Against silver" or against the silver shorters and for silver?

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