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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Yadda yadda yadda
1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, it was them that were shorting it would seem worse. All they are doing is buying. Though of course TPTB would call manipulation because they don't like it. It's not that much different to a talking head going on Bloomberg and they put the ticker up show the stock rising as he speaks. That's often to pump and dump to rob the retail investors! This whole episode largely relates to improvements in technology, it couldn't have been done in the old days. The high tech firms like to make their money but won't like technology working against them if it lowers their share prices in a general market sell off.

VIX was -8% now -4%.

I was just coming here to suggest that if wsb is illegitimate then so is CNBC. They even declare their holdings.

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Yes, it is all excellent stuff.

Could this make a massive buying opportunity?

The end of the month sees some of the hedge funds having to pay out - if they can't, could it be another LTCM where there is a bailout?

And then what happens next month when more options come up for expiry? To me I think some of the new shorts (which were taken out at much higher levels) will end up getting extremely rich as well. Can WSB afford to keep defending the prices month after month?

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Yadda yadda yadda
Just now, Boon said:

Yes, it is all excellent stuff.

Could this make a massive buying opportunity?

The end of the month sees some of the hedge funds having to pay out - if they can't, could it be another LTCM where there is a bailout?

And then what happens next month when more options come up for expiry? To me I think some of the new shorts (which were taken out at much higher levels) will end up getting extremely rich as well. Can WSB afford to keep defending the prices month after month?

Interesting point. The price structure of the shorts will be changing. Long dated shorts purchased now will probably be big winners. Big risk though as it is a red rag to a bull.

Do people think this discussion should be moved away from @DurhamBorn's macro thread? It is interesting and could affect the wider market substantially so there is a case for it staying here.

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Democorruptcy
1 minute ago, Boon said:

Yes, it is all excellent stuff.

Could this make a massive buying opportunity?

The end of the month sees some of the hedge funds having to pay out - if they can't, could it be another LTCM where there is a bailout?

And then what happens next month when more options come up for expiry? To me I think some of the new shorts (which were taken out at much higher levels) will end up getting extremely rich as well. Can WSB afford to keep defending the prices month after month?

If WSB get paid out on this, they will have lots of profit to roll up onto their next one. The TPTB must surely realise that?

Re buying opportunity it depends how quickly it's stopped. If nothing is done today there could be a dip at US opening. At that point trading platforms will fall over. Limit orders might possibly get filled. I've put some in but obviously buys might look value today but not if things carry on.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Boon said:

Yes, it is all excellent stuff.

Could this make a massive buying opportunity?

The end of the month sees some of the hedge funds having to pay out - if they can't, could it be another LTCM where there is a bailout?

And then what happens next month when more options come up for expiry? To me I think some of the new shorts (which were taken out at much higher levels) will end up getting extremely rich as well. Can WSB afford to keep defending the prices month after month?

No, and this is where it will end in tears I think.  either the gvt steps in and closes it down somehow, and people lose money, or momentum is lost and the stock reverts, and people lose money.

 

But as per upthread, if a lot of the retail investors are only losing 100 bucks, 500 bucks, or losing money they have on credit and they plan to go bankrupt, it's still good.  The real victory is not everyone on the retail side making money, but the sight of some millionares and billionares sweating fucking bricks and having to sell a mansion or two to stay out of prison.

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geordie_lurch
6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Do people think this discussion should be moved away from @DurhamBorn's macro thread? It is interesting and could affect the wider market substantially so there is a case for it staying here.

There's another thread already set up for it below but I agree it has wider implications and could be one of the things that brings about the BK a lot of us thought might be on the way O.o

 

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geordie_lurch
6 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

@HuntyBP just hit 2.72!

Yes I'm watching it and Shell again today but not sure it's going to stay above that today but who knows O.o

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I think the real interesting one is the silver market. Making something 'too big to fail' actually fail would have massive fallouts. I still think the unwritten story here is that there are whales using it as cover, every single media story has given reddit the credit for it.

In the worst case scenario I think the govt could backstop Gamestop losses and then pass new rules to make it harder to speculate.

Surely it can only be good for crypto, the only thing certain out of this is that the dislike for authorities will increase.

 

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2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Or just go Victorian and use pre-1920 currency all the way to down to a threepence weighing 1.4g B|

I've got a large bag of silver 3d. Bought them for about 60 to 70p each. They are way higher than that on ebay now. Wish I'd bought more to tbh. Could be a nice trading coin in the future if the silver price spikes very high (in that it will be affordable to the masses)

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10 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

I've got a large of silver 3d. Bought them for about 60 to 70p each. They are way higher than that on ebay now. Wish I'd bought more to tbh. Could be a nice trading coin in the future if the silver price spikes very high (in that it will be affordable to the masses)

Im ready for the Victorian post apocalypse B|

 

C8948EAE-18CB-4D99-BD11-E2B5517BD27C.jpeg

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12 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

I've got a large of silver 3d. Bought them for about 60 to 70p each. They are way higher than that on ebay now. Wish I'd bought more to tbh. Could be a nice trading coin in the future if the silver price spikes very high (in that it will be affordable to the masses)

How much silver is in them? 

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ThoughtCriminal

Glenn Greenwald bang on the money as usual. 

 

We need a revolution. Hanging from lampposts, the full Monty. 

 

The fact that I, a burkean conservative, am saying this just speaks volumes. 

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8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't like how the miners look on the monthlies I have to say. I've sold some, and bought more potash and oil. I'm aware they're making money hand over fist at the moment, but it's signalling more sideways to me.

Edit:

I may be getting shook out, lets see...

I think that I just bought your RIO!

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33 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Do people think this discussion should be moved away from @DurhamBorn's macro thread? It is interesting and could affect the wider market substantially so there is a case for it staying here.

Maybe.  I agree, it is interesting and there is a case for it staying here.  Conversely, there is a solid case for the discussion to be placed in Shares Trading section, or in maybe even in the related Gamespot thread!

Generally, we are all accustomed to filtering out noise, be it on this thread or in general life.  Let's face it, given this week's market conditions it could be argued that WSB/Reddit content provides a little 'noise variety' from the obligatory price down/stock dumping bleating.

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33 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

There's another thread already set up for it below but I agree it has wider implications and could be one of the things that brings about the BK a lot of us thought might be on the way

We defo need to analyse such developments for an anatomy of a potential BK but maybe excessive individual stock talk, apart from exemplars of wider macro (e.g. sectoral) trends, is heading off topic?

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50 minutes ago, wherebee said:

But as per upthread, if a lot of the retail investors are only losing 100 bucks, 500 bucks, or losing money they have on credit and they plan to go bankrupt, it's still good.  The real victory is not everyone on the retail side making money, but the sight of some millionares and billionares sweating fucking bricks and having to sell a mansion or two to stay out of prison.

That's the problem being in the 1% (maybe not the 0.1% though) - one to very many @ $500 per head!

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Yadda yadda yadda
36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Glenn Greenwald bang on the money as usual. 

 

We need a revolution. Hanging from lampposts, the full Monty. 

 

The fact that I, a burkean conservative, am saying this just speaks volumes. 

Spot on talking about empowering people against the powerful. WSB have taken advantage of knowledge. Would they have known about the outsize short interest years ago? No. It is the dissemination of knowledge that the powerful hate. Just like the deliberate maintenance of illiteracy amongst the masses in the past.

This thread is about the sharing of knowledge to mutual benefit. Thanks all for that. Greatly appreciated.

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