Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[arrow]

32 minutes ago, nirvana said:

despite the shit show at BP, US oil is rocking it's arse off today.....looks like it wants to hit 55

HODL 

Aaaannnnndddd it hit 55 

Whether it lasts, I don't know, but, as Cattle Prod has pointed out, the msm should be looking at supply. The inventories are reducing and soon, weeks/months maybe?, the supply won't be able to match demand. But, the msm keep banging on about demand and are looking the wrong way

[Yadda yadda yadda]

49 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, a Mr Vlad Putin told me and Yadda Yadda Yadda to buy it. That's how it works isn't it? 

(decl: I do own it btw; Not advice of course, unless that is Mr 'P' tells you so!!)

Yes. He sent a nice chap round. Big lad. He stood behind me as I bought making sure I didn't get the wrong thing.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 minutes ago, arrow said:

Whether it lasts, I don't know, but, as Cattle Prod has pointed out, the msm should be looking at supply. The inventories are reducing and soon, weeks/months maybe?, the supply won't be able to match demand. But, the msm keep banging on about demand and are looking the wrong way

I wonder what public (and institutional investor) sentiment towards oil investment and exploration will be once fuel prices start rising...

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've just had a look at GME. That is a proper dumping. Still a long way to go.

[geordie_lurch]

12 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I've just had a look at GME. That is a proper dumping. Still a long way to go.

Same as BP at the USA open by the looks of it nearly -5% now

I'm really not happy with HL as they have one of my Fill of Kill orders now stuck at "Submitted for dealing" for nearly 30 mins after it suddenly went to that from pending when I tried to cancel it meaning I still can't buy what I wanted manually

EDIT They filled it in the end some 32 mins after opening

[nirvana]

26 minutes ago, arrow said:

the msm keep banging on

I don't do the news anymore, sound advice from Morrissey 

Stop watching the news
Because the news contrives to frighten you
To make you feel small and alone
To make you feel that your mind isn't your own

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Same as BP at the USA open by the looks of it nearly -5% now

I'm really not happy with HL as they have one of my Fill of Kill orders now stuck at "Submitted for dealing" for nearly 30 mins after it suddenly went to that from pending when I tried to cancel it meaning I still can't buy what I wanted manually

EDIT They filled it in the end some 32 mins after opening

My BP 2.51 was just hit, if I bought yours don't forget to let me off the stamp duty!

[geordie_lurch]

18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

My BP 2.51 was just hit, if I bought yours don't forget to let me off the stamp duty!

No wasn't mine - I sold my last at 258

[Loki]

Are you selling BP at a loss? 

[geordie_lurch]

9 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are you selling BP at a loss? 

A small one - around £100 total I think as I bought all of it sub 300p but my last BP orders was at 288p I think.

I know you all think I'm mad fiddling around with things like this but I already moved the funds freed up into XOM and Gazprom and have a decent existing allocation of RDSB for an average price of under 1150. 

Basically I have also managed to get more oilies exposure overall ditching BP and I think my risk and hopefully rewards are better spread around like this

 

[Harley]

Genedrive up 27% today or a year's heating oil in real money.  That's what happens when someone throws you out of the office before you've placed all your trades for the day!  Need to get a lock for that door!

And what's so bad about UK oil and gas companies versus their US, Russian, Australian, and Chinese counterparts?

Systems do seem a bit stressed atm - even TradingView, etc taking its time.

[DurhamBorn]

Main thing on BP results is the debt coming down.They are marking everything down and cleaning up the balance sheet so its much cleaner for the cycle turn underway.They said share buy backs by the end of the year,but thats based on oil between $45 and $50 and they will be using Brent so its likely they will start earlier,or when they do start they will be able to go hard quickly.

Id much prefer the shares stay down until the buy backs get underway because the lower the share count the better for later in the cycle.Hopefully they can keep being hated for a good while yet.Im also hoping the same for Imperial Brands.They should be able to launch buy backs within 18 months so i hope the shares stay hated for many a year yet.

[arrow]

3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Thanks for taking the time to let me know that @arrow as I'd missed that. I will have to rethink things my end then as that info kind of defeats the point of a stop loss

As far as I know, there are only 4 brokers that will give you direct access to the ftse

One of the brokers, Interactive Brokers, has direct market access to multiple markets. Unfortunately, its UK operation doesn't offer ISAs or SIPPs, though they were considering them at one stage.

From the london stock exchange website,

 

"Direct Market Access

When you execute a trade through your broker, you may not realise that it rarely happens directly on London Stock Exchange order books. 

Instead, brokers have traditionally had to request prices from specialist market makers, known as Retail Service Providers (RSPs). These intermediaries offered prices in retail-size (relatively small) volumes and you could only trade at the price they provided. 

However, more and more brokers are now offering a service called Direct Market Access (DMA), which allows you to place your orders directly on our order books in the same way that institutional investors do.
Key advantages

    Level playing field: Every order is of equal status on the order book, prioritised only in terms of price and time 
    Visibility: Orders are visible to the entire market, allowing all market participants a full contribution to central market liquidity 
    Depth of order book: The order book shows the number of buyers versus the number of sellers and at what price they are willing to trade 
    Set your own price: Limit orders can be entered at whatever price you choose and are available to the entire market 
    Tighter spreads: As limit orders are displayed publicly rather than held privately, market spreads become tighter. This benefits the order placer, giving them a better chance of getting executed at the right price; the market as a whole also benefits from a tighter public reference price to work from 
    Auction participation: You can participate in the pre-market and post-market auctions where the highest or lowest price often occurs 
    Peace of mind: Regulation and market supervision by the Exchange 
    Certainty: The order book is always available during trading hours. 

 
Direct Market Access providers

 

Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers (U.K.) Limited (regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) is a member firm of the Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBG). IBG together with its subsidiaries, is an automated global electronic market maker and broker specialising in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures, CFDs, options, and foreign exchange instruments as a member of more than 100 marketplaces around the world.

Find more on Interactive Brokers member page.

IG Markets
Get inside the market spread with L2 Dealer. Use IG Market’s free platform to trade UK shares with free market depth data* supplied by the London Stock Exchange.Trading like a market professional, you can examine Level 2 price information for any stock, and even place your own orders into the order book. Any trade you make is automatically replicated as a CFD position, so you benefit from the convenience and value of CFD trading.

Find more on IG Markets member page.

FinecoBank
FinecoBank is an online bank which offers an integrated business model with a one-stop-solution.  Fineco combines in one single multicurrency platform trading and investment products, in addition Fineco Bank offers a range of international and payment solutions including a double currency debit card and a multi-currency service free of charge. Fineco is the Europe’s most used trading platform thanks to its robust technology and constant innovation, providing access to 27 global markets including stocks, bonds, ETFs, futures, options, CFDs and structured products.

Find more on FinecoBank member page.

iDealing
iDealing has provided Direct Market Access to the London Stock Exchange Order books for Cash Equities since 2006. Clients may participate in all eligible auctions and may also send "Good Till" orders up to the maximum eligible time.CFDs and Spreadbets on London Stock Exchange securities are also provided.

Find more on iDealing member page.
Direct Market Access FAQs
What are the benefits of DMA over traditional forms of buying/selling shares?

General benefits of direct access and order book trading include the speed of execution and the potential for better pricing than investors may otherwise receive by using a third-party broker/dealer. This suggests that investment performance can be improved regardless of the number of trades per day, or per year.

The ability to join the buyers and sellers order book columns can create opportunities to buy or sell well within the perceived spread, a potential cost saving on a transaction."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/personal-investing/tools/direct-market-access?lang=en

[Starsend]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Depends which one you want.  Per reading their profiles, they are different businesses.  Depends if you want all or part of the business.

A quick look on Investing.com......

Gazprom Neft' PAO  (SIBN:MOEX) is a vertically integrated oil company operating in the Russian Federation, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and internationally. The Company's principal activities include exploration, production and development of crude oil and gas, production of refined petroleum products and distribution and marketing operations through its retail outlets. The Company manages its operations in two segments: Upstream and Downstream. The Company's Upstream segment (exploration and production) includes exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas (including joint ventures results), and oil field services. The Downstream segment (refining and marketing) processes crude into refined products and purchases, sells and transports crude and refined petroleum products. The Company offers products and services for motorists and a range of businesses. It offers Gazprom Neft Engine Oils and G-Energy premium oils brands for use in the passenger vehicles.

Gazprom PAO (GAZP:MOEX) operates gas pipeline systems. The Company's principal activities include exploration and production of gas; transportation of gas; sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad; gas storage; production of crude oil and gas condensate; processing of oil, gas condensate and other hydrocarbons, and sales of refined products, and electric and heat energy generation and sales. The Company's segments include Production of gas, Transportation, Distribution of gas, Gas storage, Production of crude oil and gas condensate, Refining, Electric and heat energy generation and sales, and Other. The Production of gas segment is engaged in the exploration and production of gas. The Transportation segment is engaged in the transportation of gas. The Distribution of gas segment is engaged in the sales of gas within the Russian Federation and abroad. The Gas storage segment is engaged in the storage of extracted and purchased gas in underground gas storages.

To add: Gazprom PAO owns 92.66% of Gazprom Neft.  BP owns a smallish slice of Gazprom PAO via Roseneft.

IMO the likes of HL do not offer sufficient company data. 

Thanks Harley, pretty sure now that OGZD is the one I want, tempting as the 13% yield on the other one.

[Starsend]

59 minutes ago, arrow said:

As far as I know, there are only 4 brokers that will give you direct access to the ftse

One of the brokers, Interactive Brokers, has direct market access to multiple markets. Unfortunately, its UK operation doesn't offer ISAs or SIPPs, though they were considering them at one stage.

From the london stock exchange website,

 

"Direct Market Access

When you execute a trade through your broker, you may not realise that it rarely happens directly on London Stock Exchange order books. 

Instead, brokers have traditionally had to request prices from specialist market makers, known as Retail Service Providers (RSPs). These intermediaries offered prices in retail-size (relatively small) volumes and you could only trade at the price they provided. 

However, more and more brokers are now offering a service called Direct Market Access (DMA), which allows you to place your orders directly on our order books in the same way that institutional investors do.
Key advantages

    Level playing field: Every order is of equal status on the order book, prioritised only in terms of price and time 
    Visibility: Orders are visible to the entire market, allowing all market participants a full contribution to central market liquidity 
    Depth of order book: The order book shows the number of buyers versus the number of sellers and at what price they are willing to trade 
    Set your own price: Limit orders can be entered at whatever price you choose and are available to the entire market 
    Tighter spreads: As limit orders are displayed publicly rather than held privately, market spreads become tighter. This benefits the order placer, giving them a better chance of getting executed at the right price; the market as a whole also benefits from a tighter public reference price to work from 
    Auction participation: You can participate in the pre-market and post-market auctions where the highest or lowest price often occurs 
    Peace of mind: Regulation and market supervision by the Exchange 
    Certainty: The order book is always available during trading hours. 

 
Direct Market Access providers

 

Interactive Brokers
Interactive Brokers (U.K.) Limited (regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority) is a member firm of the Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBG). IBG together with its subsidiaries, is an automated global electronic market maker and broker specialising in routing orders and executing and processing trades in securities, futures, CFDs, options, and foreign exchange instruments as a member of more than 100 marketplaces around the world.

Find more on Interactive Brokers member page.

IG Markets
Get inside the market spread with L2 Dealer. Use IG Market’s free platform to trade UK shares with free market depth data* supplied by the London Stock Exchange.Trading like a market professional, you can examine Level 2 price information for any stock, and even place your own orders into the order book. Any trade you make is automatically replicated as a CFD position, so you benefit from the convenience and value of CFD trading.

Find more on IG Markets member page.

FinecoBank
FinecoBank is an online bank which offers an integrated business model with a one-stop-solution.  Fineco combines in one single multicurrency platform trading and investment products, in addition Fineco Bank offers a range of international and payment solutions including a double currency debit card and a multi-currency service free of charge. Fineco is the Europe’s most used trading platform thanks to its robust technology and constant innovation, providing access to 27 global markets including stocks, bonds, ETFs, futures, options, CFDs and structured products.

Find more on FinecoBank member page.

iDealing
iDealing has provided Direct Market Access to the London Stock Exchange Order books for Cash Equities since 2006. Clients may participate in all eligible auctions and may also send "Good Till" orders up to the maximum eligible time.CFDs and Spreadbets on London Stock Exchange securities are also provided.

Find more on iDealing member page.
Direct Market Access FAQs
What are the benefits of DMA over traditional forms of buying/selling shares?

General benefits of direct access and order book trading include the speed of execution and the potential for better pricing than investors may otherwise receive by using a third-party broker/dealer. This suggests that investment performance can be improved regardless of the number of trades per day, or per year.

The ability to join the buyers and sellers order book columns can create opportunities to buy or sell well within the perceived spread, a potential cost saving on a transaction."

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/personal-investing/tools/direct-market-access?lang=en

That's useful information. I've been meaning to look into setting up with a DMA provider for a while. I've been using the likes of CMC for years but I've had to limit the amount of money I keep with them as I don't trust them.

I went long on WTI at $12. They shook me out by increasing the holding cost from about 3% to over 200%. In hindsight I'd have still done well to hold but I didn't know how long WTI would remain suppressed.

It's the only time in many years that they've pulled a stunt like that but once is enough to destroy your trust in them completely and forever.

May still have to use them for some trades but be good to spread the risk across some other providers.

[nirvana]

DaveH is getting pissed on twitter, threatening to block all the 'silversqueezers' 

[Errol]

12 minutes ago, nirvana said:

DaveH is getting pissed on twitter, threatening to block all the 'silversqueezers' 

Not sure why. They are absolutely correct - just the time frame required is much longer than they think.

In any event, the paper price can be ignored. Just keep on buying physical when you can.

[Starsend]

22 minutes ago, Starsend said:

.

 

[Starsend]

More evidence of the big disconnect between physical silver and paper:

 

£50 for a one ounce bar. Holy cow, and he's sold hundreds.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1-oz-Johnson-Matthey-Silver-Bar-999-Silver-Uk-Bullion-Seller/261599099212?hash=item3ce885794c%3Ag%3ASG0AAOxy3HJTHY6b&LH_BIN=1

 

About a quarter of a troy ounce for £27.35 + £2.38pp (work out at £109 per ounce ). Again hundreds sold.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1-x-7-77g-German-Eagle-Silver-999-Investment-Ingot-UK-INSURED-MAILING/133559954363

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Starsend said:

More evidence of the big disconnect between physical silver and paper:

 

£50 for a one ounce bar. Holy cow, and he's sold hundreds.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1-oz-Johnson-Matthey-Silver-Bar-999-Silver-Uk-Bullion-Seller/261599099212?hash=item3ce885794c%3Ag%3ASG0AAOxy3HJTHY6b&LH_BIN=1

 

About a quarter of a troy ounce for £27.35 + £2.38pp (work out at £109 per ounce ). Again hundreds sold.

https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/1-x-7-77g-German-Eagle-Silver-999-Investment-Ingot-UK-INSURED-MAILING/133559954363

 

Ebay seller since 2012, so doesn't mean all the previous sales were at that price?

[harp]

29 minutes ago, nirvana said:

DaveH is getting pissed on twitter, threatening to block all the 'silversqueezers' 

He really is a fucking cock that guy.

[feed]

13 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Ebay seller since 2012, so doesn't mean all the previous sales were at that price?

you can track last 3 months sales or so.  They've been £50 since Oct 4th.  Looks like he's been selling 3~4 a week, until this last week when it move up to 9.  Not a massive surge, but's it's indicative of whats happened to Silver on ebay over this weekend.  

[Loki]

One worker is dead and two others have been injured in an early morning mud rush at the New Afton mine, located 17 kilometres west of Kamloops, B.C.
Mine owner New Gold Inc. said in a media release that a contract driller is presumed to have been killed while two New Gold employees received non-life threatening injuries.
Work at the mine has been suspended and New Gold said RCMP and the provincial safety authorities are on scene.
New Afton mine produces gold, silver and copper.

[Majorpain]

57 minutes ago, Errol said:

Not sure why. They are absolutely correct - just the time frame required is much longer than they think.

In any event, the paper price can be ignored. Just keep on buying physical when you can.

Agreed, it will take at least a week for any real effect of physical buying to take hold, although lots of people will be putting in a shift to try and keep the show on the road comex derivative wise.  They are not going to let their cash cow piggy bank go without a fight.

[Starsend]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I saw that, I'd closed my account with them before that happened. Can't remember why, but I didn't like them anymore despite the booze they sent me at Christmas

OGZD is the one I have too fwiw

They've never sent me any free booze 

Who do you use now if you don't mind me asking?