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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.The BBC is probably one of the biggest dangers to this country.The media as a whole is disgusting.That mine in Cumbria is very high quality met coal for steel making,not the sort that comes to the surface just behind my back garden.I kid you not,the Durham coal seam comes to the surface just behind my house,hence being surrounded by old drift mines.

The woke left has worked its way into all our institutions.Years ago the real working class left would of fought back against such rubbish,but not anymore.Working class people getting decent paid jobs,its an outrage.

Its these jackets they're fucken huge and constantly coming in and going out ... that is the actual yard but there is usually more than that there.

Foundations for offshore wind turbines stored Vlissingen harbour; these platforms are called jacket. waiting to be shipped to new north sea Borssele wind farm, Netherlands - CUF47931 - Mischa Keijser/Westend61

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4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly.The BBC is probably one of the biggest dangers to this country.The media as a whole is disgusting.That mine in Cumbria is very high quality met coal for steel making,not the sort that comes to the surface just behind my back garden.I kid you not,the Durham coal seam comes to the surface just behind my house,hence being surrounded by old drift mines.

The woke left has worked its way into all our institutions.Years ago the real working class left would of fought back against such rubbish,but not anymore.Working class people getting decent paid jobs,its an outrage.

The new breed middle class of Northumberland turned down some coal gasification the other year.

If it wasnt for coal most the people of Northumberland and their ancestors would not have been born.
https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/business/business-news/hundreds-jobs-could-coming-north-10707417

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Transistor Man
2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

 

The key components of the superheater and reheater in these new plants will be nickel-based superalloys. 

So, higher operating temperature and pressure equals more efficiency, less coal use per MWh. And it can make a big difference.

But requires mastering some very advanced materials technology. 

I see Siemens are supplying the “boilers” (nothing boils). 

Apparently: Siemens has exclusive licence to the Benson boiler (the supercritical steam generator design) 

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3 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes a compliment.

Though i admit i don't always understand... for example, a few days back you wrote about '...grabbing some Asians'!! (though i accept that thought perhaps says more about me? - and do note no-one else here 'took the bait' and queried you about it!!)  

Oh good, ta!  I meant buying some asian market stocks (HK, Japan, Singapore).  Alas any other such meaning long since left my life!

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47 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I occasionally work on the offshore windmills, prior to them being fixed into the bottom of the sea.

They're made with cheap Chinese steel that is then shipped to the Middle East where barely skilled Indian labour is flown in to knock them up (very badly). 

From there they're shipped to Holland for further inspection at which point they realise they standard of welding etc.. is not up to spec.

At which point they fly over a hundred or more Brits to inspect them, re-weld them, which obviously involves scaffolders, painters, managers, etc... Then after months of arguing about money someone gives the go-ahead to drop them in the N Sea.

This has been going on for at least a decade.

No wonder our steel industry is on the death bed.

Interesting about the cheap steel. I've had quite a few screws recently where the steel is so soft they just round straight away even if you're being careful. Was hanging a door recently with some hinges I bought from Screwfix. The screws that came with the hinges, two of them the heads snapped off as I screwed them in. You'd think there would be minimum standards for steel depending on the use, especially a windmill.

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2 hours ago, JMD said:

Many interesting thoughts there Harley. Hope you get some interesting feedback from the 'wise wizards' that occupy here.

Not sure about your '...tipping at windmills' remark though. You might have SanchoPanza's 'boss' D. Quixote on your back about that casual comment!?!

 

For me though i was particularly taken by what you said, if i have understood you correctly, about buying funds because i thought you had been against buying the funds. However, recently you've written a lot about not being able to find value stocks at decent prices, so maybe that is the reason for change? 

I ask because that reasoning would certainly chime with me because after my own investigations - though not quiet finished delving into the equity sectors - i am thinking that (apart from the pm's, oil, telecoms, and other reflation sector stocks, which i already very-very happily own) - i will need to take another look at the fund managers. I had previously kinda ditched the idea of using funds, however i have concluded that it is too difficult/impossible task for me to allocate entirely to only individual stocks. And i guess there are 'obviously'(?) sectors such as asia/em's/small caps and others, where exposure to these (hopefully) future growth sectors can only be got (by the average retail investor, in terms of skill, effort and platform access) by buying the relevant funds. 

 

I do worry about the institutional, etc risks with ETFs and funds and trusts.  But a controlled allocation in my floor fund may be appropriate.  After all nothing is risk free - like me trying to select my own stocks!   And I have to admit my first look at the trusts suggest they have handled things well this past year.  So maybe a bit of this and that in my portfolio to cover all the bases.

I've always found Sancho's user name and avatar the absolute best - very clever indeed!  A whole investment metaphor there!

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5 minutes ago, Starsend said:

Interesting about the cheap steel. I've had quite a few screws recently where the steel is so soft they just round straight away even if you're being careful. Was hanging a door recently with some hinges I bought from Screwfix. The screws that came with the hinges, two of them the heads snapped off as I screwed them in. You'd think there would be minimum standards for steel depending on the use, especially a windmill.

Possibly why. 

But i meant its cheap as in $$$$ terms as they use coal to produce the steel, but it is also renowned as being shite as the quality controllers are asleep on the job.

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3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

DYOR etc

 

You used to be able to move to Belgium to realise capital gains tax free but they closed that.  Of course, had to be a lot to make it bearable!

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2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

BBC giving it the full on whinge treatment about the UK opening a coal mine and compromising its 'greenness' as world leader in exporting its manufacturing to other less green countries without explaining that its coal for making very high quality steel in blast furnesses, not burning it to elektwicity.

I buy asian coal producers.  I like buying Asian coal producers. And I like looking at the charts of my asian coal producers.   I don't like the BBC.  I don't buy a tv licence.  I like not buying a tv licence.  And I don't like looking at the BBC.  And that's all I have to say about the BBC.

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One of the big new trends in carbon capture will be natural carbon offsets,mostly planting trees and today buried in some text from BP and Rosneft is just that ,translated it means Rosneft is going to keep pumping but plant lots of trees across Siberia so BP can be carbon neutral by 2050.Trading new forest carbon credits should become a huge business during the cycle.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/rosneft-and-bp-agree-to-cooperate-on-carbon-management-and-sustainability.html

The companies intend to work together on opportunities for low carbon solutions in downstream ‎businesses, including the development of advanced fuel as well as evaluate the potential for the ‎development of natural forest sinks and trading of forest carbon-offsets credits. The companies will ‎cooperate in sustainable development and social investment, including biodiversity.

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2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I assume for the latter its small US stocks rather than divi paying UK stocks?

Whatever pops.  Only a question of how much after the DD.  The world for total return value plays but had to cut back on trades to the US and UK as too much work.  Less so the UK though given the stamp duty (being tight!).

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6 hours ago, nomadic said:

I don't want to get too far off topic but happy to write a whole load about living here post-Brexit and dealing with paperwork, but will seek another section for that. Any ideas where in Forum?

Great idea...perhaps we could have a subsection with the same format for individual countries @spunko?

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Whatever pops.  Only a question of how much after the DD.  The world for total return value plays but had to cut back on trades to the US and UK as too much work.  Less so the UK though given the stamp duty (being tight!).

Mmm, your comment supported something I have been thinking about/a solution....just to confirm, by "world for total return value plays" you mean the CGT part of the equation rather than divis [and its allowance]?

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4 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

The efficiency of a thermal power plant can be increase by using higher temperature steam. 

In addition, depending on its temperature and pressure water can be a solid, liquid, vapour, gas..... or - at high enough temperature and pressure - a supercritical fluid.

This state is neither liquid nor gas. 

In a conventional power plant, effort is made to stop steam from condensing towards the end of it’s flow through the turbines. 

If you use super critical steam, you don’t have to worry about steam condensing. Improving the efficiency of the power conversion cycle.

The temperature and pressure limits for a power plant are set by the materials used in the steam generator. 

The key components of the superheater and reheater in these new plants will be nickel-based superalloys. 

So, higher operating temperature and pressure equals more efficiency, less coal use per MWh. And it can make a big difference.

But requires mastering some very advanced materials technology. 

TM,echoing what @Bobthebuilder said,thanks ever so much that precy.Really explained it well for me.Fascinating stuff.

2 hours ago, Hancock said:

Possibly why. 

But i meant its cheap as in $$$$ terms as they use coal to produce the steel, but it is also renowned as being shite as the quality controllers are asleep on the job.

Stupid question,are you saying that the steel produced by leccy is better than that produced by coal?heat is heat surely?

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4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

BBC giving it the full on whinge treatment about the UK opening a coal mine and compromising its 'greenness' as world leader in exporting its manufacturing to other less green countries without explaining that its coal for making very high quality steel in blast furnesses, not burning it to elektwicity.

What the BBC article actually said:

"Ministers have defended the decision over the coal mine as a local planning matter, but have stressed that industries such as steel production require coking coal - which would have to be imported if it was not produced in the UK.

The mine will produce coking coal - a grade that is used in steel-making. Although 85% of it is destined for export to Europe, government sources hinted that a need for continuing domestic steel production was another reason for not opposing the mine."

Whatever the rights / wrongs of that coal mine, at least the BBC did mention both sides of the argument. See https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-55923731.

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Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, Harley said:

You used to be able to move to Belgium to realise capital gains tax free but they closed that.  Of course, had to be a lot to make it bearable!

 

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UnconventionalWisdom
12 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I like to have a play with the figures.

All this FIRE talk reminded me of 'Wish I Could Afford One". Update in Jan and he's gone down under

Was always great to read his posts on TOS. Thanks for posting the link- last time i checked the site hadn't been updated. Glad he appears to be doing well.

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Yadda yadda yadda

Any thoughts on Qualcomm? Been smacked down following earnings report. It isn't cheap, it isn't a dividend play and it isn't decomplex either. However, it will benefit from telecoms infrastructure expenditure. 5G, IoT.

I'm tempted but can't help thinking it will take a swan dive in a BK scenario.

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Democorruptcy
On 23/01/2021 at 15:48, working woman said:

 

As the last few contributions to the thread have been about Technical Analysis, which I am finding interesting, as a novice, here is my small contribution - Golden Crosses (Buy Signals). 

BP      -  the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very near to making a Golden Cross.

           - the 100 and 200 day Moving Averages are nowhere near meeting yet.             

RDSB - the 50 day and 200 day Moving Averages made a Golden Cross on the 4th Jan.

           - the 100 day and 200 day Moving Averages are very close to making a Golden Cross.  

I know this thread has a longer term view, but am aware some people may also want to do short-term trading as well. If anyone is interested, I am happy to post when I spot any Golden Crosses.

Your BP Golden Cross looks like it's practically there? https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BP.L

Point & Figure charts aren't supposed to be for short term trading? Today RDSB has given a Low Pole Reversal alert

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=RDSB.L,PWTADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]

That's supposed to be positive

Quote

 

The low pole reversal is seen when a chart falls below a previous low by at least 3 boxes, before reversing to rise by at least 50 percent of the fall. The reversal implies that the supply that was making the prices fall has been absorbed and demand is taking over. The pattern is an alert that higher prices could be seen in the future. The ideal buy point would be on another reversal back down to be closer to the stop-loss point. This would also set up a double top breakout if the prices reverse up and break over the current column's high

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:pnf_charts:pnf_alerts

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Mmm, your comment supported something I have been thinking about/a solution....just to confirm, by "world for total return value plays" you mean the CGT part of the equation rather than divis [and its allowance]?

I gave up on pure FTSE high div stocks per dividendata.com, etc both because the FTSE was too small a pool so I was picking up marginal plays whose price performance later cost me (e.g. Card Factory) and because I started to look more closely at the financials and many were not good.  Part of the downside of using an FTSE focussed ISA and SIPP.  I still have a number of such legacy stocks to dump.

I now just look for total return (min 3% div plus good capital gains potential) in more financially and macro sound companies.  That's taken me international, more towards Asia, etc.  If I can put them in an ISA or SIPP (the later especially for US stocks given the better US tax treatment on divs) so well and good but I don't let the tax status or account type primarily drive my investment decisions anymore.  I may open a Saxo ISA given its better global coverage. 

I could also increase the maximum I can invest in any one share to reduce my FTSE holdings (currently set at 25) to the better ones but that'll increase/concentrate risk. 

I'll add I prefer a more trading attitude overall as I've become addicted to taking profits and moving on, something I'm forced into anyway as the value plays I look for, bar a BK, are currently scarce.

So a total return approach in sound companies, wherever that leads me, plus more shorter term trades based purely on price action.  All this only with my upside funds.

A bit of a journey/evolution but it works for me atm.  Far more focussed and efficient than before.

PS: I used to buy initial stakes in good total return prospects and then add on dips but now I just wait for technical buy signals on stocks passing a fundamental screen, regardless of sector or country, and then buy if they pass further due diligence.  That is, despite all the possible clever pre-thinking, I just wait until the price action gives me a green light to look.  I don't want to lose money by buying a good story but at a too high a price!  It's also interesting to see how certain industries take the lead, like we had insurers/assurers a few weeks back and then regional banks (not that I bought!)

This all hinges on the efficacy of my screens and technical buy signals which I keep under review.

PPS: A lot simpler in practice, especially when the screens have been set up.

PPPS:. I use monthly price data for the total return stuff and weekly data for the trades.  I'm too old and busy for daily and inter-day stuff.  RMG, if it had better financials, would be my exemplar.  Bought most on a technical buy, held long term, and just top sliced some good profits (like a good gardener).

PPPPS: I've also learnt when things are quiet on the equity front I should just leave well alone and not try and make work.  Indeed, it usually means I should be looking elsewhere (e.g. other asset classes, preparing for a BK, etc).

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8 minutes ago, Harley said:

I now just look for total return (min 3% div plus good capital gains potential) in more financially and macro sound companies.  That's taken me international, more towards Asia, etc.  If I can put them in an ISA or SIPP (the later especially for US stocks given the better US tax treatment on divs) so well and good but I don't let the tax status or account type primarily drive my investment decisions anymore.  I may open a Saxo ISA given its better global coverage. I

Harley - 

having worked in Asia for so long, I trust less than zero percent of the figures produced by governments and companies in the region, so I stay away from Asian companies as a rule (excluding Aussies and some JVs).  How do you factor in the fraud risk?  

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44 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Your BP Golden Cross looks like it's practically there? https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BP.L

Point & Figure charts aren't supposed to be for short term trading? Today RDSB has given a Low Pole Reversal alert

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=RDSB.L,PWTADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!!!2!20]

That's supposed to be positive

 

 

Back in. Brent on fire.

Some blue numbers flashing me thinks.

RDSB/A and BP offering charity shop prices at M&S/Harrods quality. No brainer.

Woke twats. 

Cold bath anyone.

 

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35 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Harley - 

having worked in Asia for so long, I trust less than zero percent of the figures produced by governments and companies in the region, so I stay away from Asian companies as a rule (excluding Aussies and some JVs).  How do you factor in the fraud risk?  

By controlling my exposure.  I analyse and limit my holdings multiple ways, including exchange.  I also avoid those conglomerate type companies loved in Japan, etc.  Too much confusion and scope.  I like single sector plays.  However, I think the prevailing view you mention may get challenged a bit come a BK as I see some very dodgy US, etc accounts too!

PS:. Asia is actually AsiaPac and includes Australia.  Picked up WPL on a buy a good few weeks ago and am hoping.....for more!

PPS: Mitsubishi Gas.  Everyone piled into APD in the US, as did I but late and I missed the low.  I'm sitting on a small loss now with a good chance of more to come.  I tagged Gas at the lows, a far better alternative play for me.  Wish I had more but it was early days.  Maybe time to top slice.  US stocks are often bloated on price, debt, intangibles, etc.

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3 hours ago, Harley said:

Oh good, ta!  I meant buying some asian market stocks (HK, Japan, Singapore).  Alas any other such meaning long since left my life!

Ok, as we are both now back on thread topic, do you have any view on the Asian bank DBS Group Holdings, SGX:D05? It's based in Singapore and looks solid and attracting much attention for its new digital assets division.

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45 minutes ago, JMD said:

Ok, as we are both now back on thread topic, do you have any view on the Asian bank DBS Group Holdings, SGX:D05? It's based in Singapore and looks solid and attracting much attention for its new digital assets division.

Singapore and digital assets are hot atm.  Smart contracts and all that (ref for example the Macrovoices podcast).  They want to move into that space and are apparently being very supportive and attractive to the smart nomads.  Banks are banks so not my thing!  But I watch Singapore closely as its smart and hopefully will continue to do well, especially given HK.  I wish DBS would let me open a brokerage account as I trust their regulator more than most!

PS:. This is a macro thread so I think some of the very recent big picture discussions about how to approach investing to capitalise on the macro picture are more on thread and ultimately more beneficial than individual stock picks.  Happy to talk fishing rods not fish.

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