Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

Cant quite get my head around a point at 36min in this video [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9_2l0tIkv4&feature=youtu.be]...she states that Gold does better than Silver when disinflation reduction in real yields [OK with this] YET Silver does better than Gold when reflationary reduction in real yields...don't understand the latter, is it something to do with Silver being industrial and in a reflationary environment the nominal yield rising would suggest more production/manufacturing/growth?

 

[headrow]

Remember Wynnstay getting discussed on this thread a while back , what a ride. Backed the truck up when they fell to 200p , at that price they were yielding 7% , closed at 459p today.

Whoever first brought it up on this thread , thank you very much. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

There’s something odd going on with Centamin. IG haven’t allowed anyone to open up a long position for a good few weeks; and they’ve just announced that from Friday (due to increased volatility (for a stock that’s spent the past three months largely trading between 110 and 130 pence)) that you’ll need to post 100% margin on all leveraged positions (Hochschild is also on the bad boy list along with a load of 3x leveraged funds and penny stocks). It’s all very strange. I’m probably over thinking it, but they must be concerned about something - and as a bucket shop they don’t hedge, so a price increase is bad for them. Maybe the rumours of a Barrick takeover aren’t that far fetched

I had a weekly trade signal on HOC a few weeks back.  Currently long.  CEY too but passed and it's now down which is odd but turning now on the daily.

[macca]

13 hours ago, spygirl said:

I doubt those figures.

 

you can google it

An estimated 379,000 people moved to the country from outside of the EU in the 12 months to September 2019, the highest number since records began in 1975.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, C-gull said:

Is there potentially any correlation with the various Reddit pump and dumpers? The horde seems to have been spraying money at different sectors for a few days at a time, and could be that they're wondering if cheap goldies might be in the crosshairs next?

It'd take more nous than I have but there's probably good money to be made front running the meme stock pump and dumps

There have been a few good posts on there about oil lately. Along the lines you will see here. Oil will be needed for longer, shale will not recover quickly, renewables cannot provide baseload. They're looking mainly at XOM and BP as a medium term 12-18 months play. The businesses are too large for them to pump and dump. It is a sign of more capital heading that way. People are waking up. Not the depth of knowledge that Cattle Prod and DB kindly share with us but similar conclusions. I spoke to a friend yesterday who works in the trading desk at one of the oil companies a lot of us have shares in. Very bullish long term for the industry.

Some have also identified Uranium. That does have the possibility of popping. If it does there is a day or two to get out near the peak.

Otherwise it is mostly momentum plays.  Also Ark Investments ETFs focussed on new technologies that we can't buy in Europe.

[Hancock]

3 minutes ago, macca said:

you can google it

An estimated 379,000 people moved to the country from outside of the EU in the 12 months to September 2019, the highest number since records began in 1975.

That's a lot of engineers and doctors.

[wherebee]

22 minutes ago, macca said:

you can google it

An estimated 379,000 people moved to the country from outside of the EU in the 12 months to September 2019, the highest number since records began in 1975.

so not last year then.  the year before.

[MvR]

On 13/02/2021 at 09:11, AWW said:

Slightly tangential question - does anyone here generate additional income from their portfolio by selling call options for stocks they own?

I do, though I've mostly been selling straddles against the stock to take in even more premium. It means I'm exposed to the downside with the short put, so generally, unless I'm particularly bullish short term, I'll only hold half of my intended maximum holding in stock, so if my short put is exercised I don't mind.

I usually do this on the weeklies, to expire the following week. It's been working out alright so far.  I've been getting higher returns than holding the stock on it's own, with a lot less volatility.

I've also been doing it mostly in SLV and GLD,  which are unusual in that implied volatility (i.e. options prices) spike when the stock spikes up, rather than down, as it does with normal stocks.  Panics in PMs are usually in the upward direction.

This means if say SLV spikes like it did the other day, I can roll out my very-soon-to-expire, in-the-money calls to the following week, whilst raising the strike price quite a lot, and still collect a decent premium. 

[AWW]

@MvRThanks for the reply - I found your thread.

[sleepwello'nights]

10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Good afternoon Boys & Girls!

 

My GOLLY ...whatever you think of Mr Hunter, his prediction is looking GOOD, Markets ROARING ahead...FFS even my portfolio TODAY is at an ALL TIME HIGH of + 31%

 

 

Yay, the last melt up has started. 

[wherebee]

37 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Yay, the last melt up has started. 

I've been taking a bit off the top of those holdings which I think will crash in a BK or any pullback.  The oilies, however, I am not planning on selling unless I hit 200% with any of them (pretty close in XOM!) when I will sell 25% and see that as locked in profit.

In any BK, I would see no reason why oilies wouldn't drop somewhat (although not as much as tech and 'normal' stocks).  Happy to be challenged in my thinking.

[C-gull]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

There have been a few good posts on there about oil lately. Along the lines you will see here. Oil will be needed for longer, shale will not recover quickly, renewables cannot provide baseload. They're looking mainly at XOM and BP as a medium term 12-18 months play. The businesses are too large for them to pump and dump. It is a sign of more capital heading that way. People are waking up. Not the depth of knowledge that Cattle Prod and DB kindly share with us but similar conclusions. I spoke to a friend yesterday who works in the trading desk at one of the oil companies a lot of us have shares in. Very bullish long term for the industry.

Some have also identified Uranium. That does have the possibility of popping. If it does there is a day or two to get out near the peak.

Otherwise it is mostly momentum plays.  Also Ark Investments ETFs focussed on new technologies that we can't buy in Europe.

Interesting, thanks very much. Do you follow any groups on there that you think are worth a look? r/options and r/thetagang are interesting but a bit above my head. I timed my Shell buys less well than a lot of you guys here but I finally turned black today. Like a lot of the other posts though, just think it's a shame I won't be able to get much more while their still hated

[Hunty]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I've been taking a bit off the top of those holdings which I think will crash in a BK or any pullback.  The oilies, however, I am not planning on selling unless I hit 200% with any of them (pretty close in XOM!) when I will sell 25% and see that as locked in profit.

In any BK, I would see no reason why oilies wouldn't drop somewhat (although not as much as tech and 'normal' stocks).  Happy to be challenged in my thinking.

RE. BP.

It's volatility is a trader's wet dream. Same with Shell.

Buy in structured tranches. Sell in highs. Buy in dips.

It's a sit on the couch and make easy money stock. A traders stock. Long time hold. Not my choice. But we all are entitled to our own opinion. None right none wrong.

It gives an income if your pot is of a size so to offer a range of buy and sell points.

I am biased. ~£500k AV 2.65.

Worst case scenario. A bond paying 2% above their arsewit inflation figure.

Energy is money is the economy. All else is makeup.

My opinion.

GLA.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hunty said:

RE. BP.

It's volatility is a trader's wet dream. Same with Shell.

Buy in structured tranches. Sell in highs. Buy in dips.

It's a sit on the couch and make easy money stock. A traders stock. Long time hold. Not my choice. But we all are entitled to our own opinion. None right none wrong.

It gives an income if your pot is of a size so to offer a range of buy and sell points.

I am biased. ~£500k AV 2.65.

Worst case scenario. A bond paying 2% above their arsewit inflation figure.

Energy is money is the economy. All else is makeup.

My opinion.

GLA.

Thanks hunty - always good to have other views.  I don't have that much - maybe 130k in oilies and 70k in other stuff - do don't feel like jumping in and out an awful lot, especially as the timezone here means I am asleep when the UK and US markets are mostly awake (which means unless I put lots of stops in, I'm at a disadvantage).

I think the biggest lesson from this thread for me is don't be afraid to take profits on the way up.

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, macca said:

you can google it

An estimated 379,000 people moved to the country from outside of the EU in the 12 months to September 2019, the highest number since records began in 1975.

As we've seen with the EU ers, who werre counted as 3m in 2016 and are now counted as ~6m+, the UKs migration figures are bunk.

Id suggest that the outside of EU migration figures have been much higher in the last 20 years.

What we've got now is a slightly more accurate number.

 

 

 

[Boon]

6 hours ago, Hunty said:

RE. BP.

It's volatility is a trader's wet dream. Same with Shell.

Buy in structured tranches. Sell in highs. Buy in dips.

It's a sit on the couch and make easy money stock. A traders stock. Long time hold. Not my choice. But we all are entitled to our own opinion. None right none wrong.

It gives an income if your pot is of a size so to offer a range of buy and sell points.

I am biased. ~£500k AV 2.65.

Worst case scenario. A bond paying 2% above their arsewit inflation figure.

Energy is money is the economy. All else is makeup.

My opinion.

GLA.

I've done well out of BP so far as I've done as you have said, I didn't enjoy buying it all the way down but I am glad that I did, as I've been selling the tranches on the way back up. My average price is still around 250.

What kind of price do you think it is not a trading stock? 350? 450?

[geordie_lurch]

In case anyone else has some Merian Gold and Silver it seems it's now called Jupiter Gold and Silver which confused me this morning

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 hours ago, C-gull said:

Interesting, thanks very much. Do you follow any groups on there that you think are worth a look? r/options and r/thetagang are interesting but a bit above my head. I timed my Shell buys less well than a lot of you guys here but I finally turned black today. Like a lot of the other posts though, just think it's a shame I won't be able to get much more while their still hated

I researched through the site. I started at wallstreetbets and followed users who had interesting things to say. Quite hard to find as there are so many nonsense posts there. Mostly looking at due diligence (DD) posts. Don't take anyone at face value as there are people trying to pump and dump. Needs your own research on top. It's only the longer term stuff I'm interested in. The shorter term plays could be too close to a top.

To be honest I'm mostly getting confirmation bias. There have been people pushing Ford as they think their new US models are very good and like the move to electric vehicles. I'm not sure on that as I don't see them doing well in the rest of the world. That is getting away from the macro and therefore this thread.

[Loki]

12 hours ago, Loki said:

@Castlevania I know it's in a different league to IG but I will see if Trading 212 is allowing buy CFDs on Centamin and Hochschild tomorrow when the markets open and see what happens.

@Castlevania no neither of these are available on CFD buy

[Castlevania]

53 minutes ago, Loki said:

@Castlevania no neither of these are available on CFD buy

It’s all very strange.

Hochschild’s annual results are out on Thursday.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

21 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

...

Its from out the bins right?  asking for a friend.

 

OK I'll help ya friend out!

 

YEP you got it ...FIRST have a watch of the videos below, ONE they are HILARIOUS...it's UNBELIEVABLE what they are getting for FREE... BUT it pisses me off that we can NOT do this in the UK as its illegal, ffs WHY? ...no doubt cos of some BS about health & safety?!

 

 

 

Pause to CHECK this video at 0:34 seconds AND look at the state of this woman's T-shirt!

FFS she is SAVING Thousands of dollars and can't afford a decent 2nd one!

 

 

Here's my 10 STAR TIP for raiding UK bins/skips LEGALLY!

 

Just pop into your local small store and have a conversation about their going out of date and throw out grub. My SUPER-SCRIMPER next door neighbours got to know the local shop owners AND for some odd reason i got in on the act!!!

 

The deal is - if my LARGE bag is full it's a £fiver donation and when I've worked it out with the real prices, its 10% I'm paying, so I'm sure ya agree not too bad!

 

I'm ONLY scratching the surface, as this may become a serious HOBBY!

 

Check this OUT:

 

"Thrifty mum has scored almost £100,000 worth of freebies in a decade of raiding bins"

 

 

[leonardratso]

 

KAZ MINERALS PLC - Take-Over

 

Recommended Cash Acquisition by Nova Resources B.V. (NOVA).

GBP7.80 for each Kaz Minerals Plc (KAZ) share held.

You Have The Following Option:

1	Accept the Offer on your holding of 48 KAZ MINERALS PLC ORD GBP0.20 shares.
	We will process your instruction on or after 03 March 2021 23:59 and your election will be applied to your holding at this time. If you elect to accept the Offer, your shares will not be available for you to sell, or to accept any other Offer unless this Offer lapses. Please note that if you accept the Offer and proceed to sell your shares, you may be liable to buy back costs.

---

Important Information & Other Key Dates:

On 28th October 2020, the Board of NOVA and Independent Committee of KAZ announced they had reached an agreement on the terms of a recommended cash offer (Offer) for all of the issued and to be issued share capital of KAZ. Subsequently, on 4th February 2021 the Offer was significantly increased.

The increased Offer Price represents a premium of approximately 52 percent to the Closing Price of GBP5.124 per KAZ Minerals Share on 2nd October 2020 (being the last Business Day prior to agreement in respect of the Original Offer having been reached with the Independent Committee).

The Independent Directors, having been so advised by Citigroup and UBS consider the terms of the Offer to be fair and reasonable. Accordingly, the KAZ Directors will unanimously recommend that the KAZ Shareholders accept the Offer.

If NOVA receives acceptances under the Offer in respect of, and/or otherwise acquires 90 percent or more of the KAZ shares and assuming that all of the other conditions of the Offer have been satisfied or waived, NOVA intends to exercise its rights pursuant to the provisions of Chapter 3 of Part 28 of the Companies Act to acquire compulsorily the remaining KAZ shares on the same terms as the Offer.

Also, if the Offer becomes or is declared unconditional in all respects, with sufficient acceptances having been received, NOVA intends to procure that KAZ will make an application for the cancellation of the listing of the KAZ Shares on the Official List and for the cancellation of trading of the KAZ Shares on the London Stock Exchange's (LSE) main market for listed securities.

Please be aware that should you choose to accept the Offer, your entitlement will not be released until the Offer has been declared unconditional in all respects, as stipulated in the Takeover Code. Once the Offer has been declared unconditional in all respects, payment is expected to no sooner than 10 working days following the date of such announcement or our advice date, whichever is the later. You can monitor the progress of the Offer's acceptances through any regulatory news provider. However, we will notify you once your entitlement has been credited to your account.

If you wish to accept the Offer, please do so as soon as possible as the Offer may not be extended.

Before making any decision please take into consideration all relevant factors of the event including the current share price and any possible tax implications. If you require any further information in making your decision please contact an appropriate professional advisor.

Should you choose not to accept the Offer at this time, we will contact you again if the Offer is extended, the terms of the Offer change, the stock is compulsorily acquired or if we are notified that the Offer is closing.

Please note that acceptance to this Offer will only be applied to the number of shares you hold at the time we process your instruction.

Please note that should you elect to accept the Offer, your shares will be removed from your account after our Advice Date and will not be available for you to sell.

Should you wish to find more information about the Offer, please visit https://www.kazminerals.com/investors/announcement/details/

---

 

[leonardratso]

i aint got many of these so not much uplift to me.

Actually wasnt watching, its lower than current price.

[Bricormortis]

US treasury 10 year yield now 1.26

Bitcoin breaks $50,000

[DoINeedOne]

Miners been having a rough few weeks, makes me want to buy some