Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

mind ..... I do enjoy a film ! To be fair £10 a month ain’t bad. I don’t have sky or anything else. I remember 20 years ago it cost £5 just to hire a video and you had to go to the shop and return it as well.... and it wasn’t on a HD 65”  LED TV....

When I used to go to Blockbuster to rent a film, my wife would wander around the store with a basket. Popcorn, sweets, pringles and ben & jerry ice cream. Used to cost about £20, twenty years ago.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Hancock said:

Fashion statement these days ... having a dog in the 2020s shows you're a good person by being a dog lover, and enables dog/human selfies to show the world this goodness.

If the `truth be known` and you pick the right breed they are a bit of a `fanny magnet`....just make sure its not a Chihuahua otherwise your mates will refuse to go to the pub with you!

[Loki]

57 minutes ago, AWW said:

"All the companies you invest in are run by middle aged white guys"

You joke but 'True Cost Accounting' for ESG is being proposed.  It's a small step from there to enforced portfolio diversification (Not the good type)

48 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/billionaire-hargreaves-to-sell-420-million-stake-in-wealth-firm?srnd=markets-vp

@CVG poor old Peter is so disgusted with your un-diverse share portfolio thats he’s throwing in the towel and selling up. 
 

I hear he’s spending the $420,000,000 on diversity training .....

 

 

These sell off and retirements always occur because they have insider knowledge ....... something is coming ..... my spidey senses are tingling.....

I can't help but feel this is a bloody important post. 

 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I understand BTC and the reason for it's price rises but no matter how many times I try and understand the significance of treasury yields going up or down my amateur brain doesn't understand - can anyone explain it simply?

The price of money is the most important thing in a market economy.The next most important thing is the demands on that money.At some point the cost of the money goes past ability of the demands on money to pay.

In the end the amount of Fed printing in relation to the long treasury yield determines the price of almost everything,everywhere.

[Bear Hug]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-16/billionaire-hargreaves-to-sell-420-million-stake-in-wealth-firm?srnd=markets-vp

@CVG poor old Peter is so disgusted with your un-diverse share portfolio thats he’s throwing in the towel and selling up. 
 

I hear he’s spending the $420,000,000 on diversity training .....

 

 

These sell off and retirements always occur because they have insider knowledge ....... something is coming ..... my spidey senses are tingling.....

Can't compete with much cheaper new trading platforms, that would be my guess. 

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

I’ve just gone on my email.....

Bloody inflation everywhere I turn ....

 

mind ..... I do enjoy a film ! To be fair £10 a month ain’t bad. I don’t have sky or anything else. I remember 20 years ago it cost £5 just to hire a video and you had to go to the shop and return it as well.... and it wasn’t on a HD 65”  LED TV....

I get Netflix free.My daughters friend has multi package and put it on my tablet for me a few years ago.Stream it from there to my TV etc.Mind you she knows everything i watch now  .

[Transistor Man]

I see Buffett has sold some Apple, and bought some Chevron. And some Verizon.

$4.1 bn and $8.6 bn worth, respectively.

[Loki]

#shortsqueeze #centrica #wallstreetbets #diamondhands #CNA

Humans can ignore this post.

[leonardratso]

25 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I see Buffett has sold some Apple, and bought some Chevron. And some Verizon.

$4.1 bn and $8.6 bn worth, respectively.

sounds like what i did, except i used zimbabwe dollars instead of US $ so the numbers are about the same.

[DurhamBorn]

50 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

I see Buffett has sold some Apple, and bought some Chevron. And some Verizon.

$4.1 bn and $8.6 bn worth, respectively.

Oil and telcos,glad hes catching up with us 

[Sugarlips]

9 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I understand BTC and the reason for it's price rises but no matter how many times I try and understand the significance of treasury yields going up or down my amateur brain doesn't understand - can anyone explain it simply?

Happy to be corrected but from what I’ve learned in the last 12 months on here, treasury yields are (in a general sense) correlated to the interest rate on your mortgage or savings account.

They are especially important in financial markets in terms of signaling direction - except there is a lot of noise and interference these days so it’s not obvious in the short term. This graph might be helpful though. Assuming  @DurhamBorn is right about high inflation, we will get high interest rates which will send the great unwashed’s current paper wealth through the floor:

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, Loki said:

#shortsqueeze #centrica #wallstreetbets #diamondhands #CNA

Humans can ignore this post.

sounds like 'bag holders' to me 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tendies-diamond-hands-your-guide-to-the-lingo-on-wallstreetbets-the-reddit-forum-fueling-gamestops-rise-11611780829

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil and telcos,glad hes catching up with us 

He'll be `going long` on pizza ovens next, mark my words! :-) :-) :-)

[wherebee]

14 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

He'll be `going long` on pizza ovens next, mark my words! :-) :-) :-)

I can't wait until he starts day trading dogecoin.

[harp]

Good results for BAT. Shares drop 6%  

Bought a few more! 

[Jesus Wept]

1 minute ago, harp said:

Good results for BAT. Shares drop 6%  

Bought a few more! 

I have just done the same using some more of BTC profits. Cheers 🍻 

Buy the dip on the unloved shares. Seems to have worked so far....

[Jesus Wept]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil and telcos,glad hes catching up with us 

I need to add some more telcos.

What are you all buying / looking at in this sector?

I have a fair chunk of Vodaphone bought on the dip earlier this year. It’s ticking along nice. Anything else looking good value. I was thinking Telefonica and BT and Verizon.

Here is my watch list set up around April last year. 
 

The usual story of wish I’d had the allowance and cash back then....

Maybe we should copy Buffet and buy Verizon - looks a little unloved - down 16% approximately over last 12 months or so? 

😬

[M S E Refugee]

10 minutes ago, harp said:

Good results for BAT. Shares drop 6%  

Bought a few more! 

I had every intention of buying more Imperial Brands this morning before it goes ex dividend tomorrow.

Couldn't resist putting the the money into BAT instead after the 6% drop.

[Barnsey]

Boost it like Biden: Why the UK needs an economic stimulus four times the size currently planned

https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/boost-it-like-biden

 

US president Joe Biden is in the news for his proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package aimed at revitalising the United States’ economy. He is right to extend economic rescue measures which will help the US economy recover after the pandemic and support struggling families. Closer to home, the planned UK stimulus is less than a quarter of that envisioned by the US, adjusted by the size of the economy. But we estimate that an ambition similar to that of the US would be needed to get the economy back on track, otherwise the UK economy risks falling into a ‘stagnation trap’. 

Countries that have sustained significant reductions in economic activity as a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic are faced with a similar challenge: will the economy bounce back on its own through pent-up demand, or will it require a stimulus? Our analysis suggests a similar answer to that reached by the US president; that too small a stimulus risks a sluggish recovery and could bring permanent economic scarring as a consequence. 

Building on our previous work on stimulus, we argue Rishi Sunak should pass a bold recovery plan worth £190 billion or 8.6 per cent of GDP. So far, he has committed about 2 per cent of GDP. Our proposed measures would be targeted at supporting those firms and households hardest hit by the pandemic, invest in public services and help the growth of ‘future-proof’ industries and jobs. At this March’s budget, the chancellor should look to his transatlantic counterparts and pass support measures commensurate to the size of the economic peril the UK is in.  

[Jesus Wept]

23 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I had every intention of buying more Imperial Brands this morning before it goes ex dividend tomorrow.

Couldn't resist putting the the money into BAT instead after the 6% drop.

I bought some IMB too. It took a little sector hit / fall out from BAT. The dividend if it comes should insulate against capital fall. 
 

My portfolio is heavily weighted toward oil and fags at present! Need to get me some arms dealing, booze and betting stocks.....

Take advantage of the woke attitude of shunning these ‘unethical’ sectors.

[Bricks & Mortar]

48 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Building on our previous work on stimulus, we argue Rishi Sunak should pass a bold recovery plan worth £190 billion or 8.6 per cent of GDP

I think that's rather likely, based on my own previous work on stimulus, which goes something like:

Back of fag packet... so UK GDP in GBP is about 1/10 of US GDP IN USD, and they're going for $1.9 trillion... so, divide by ten and...

EDIT TO ADD - Sterling up to $1.39 yesterday.  Don't want that getting too out of whack, so again... base case is £190 billion.

[Barnsey]

Thought this was really interesting from Fred Hickey, who provided early warning of the pandemic (and was given a lot of grief about it), and is now providing early warning of a rapidly improving situation with decreasing cases/hospitalisations etc

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

I bought some IMB too. It took a little sector hit / fall out from BAT. The dividend if it comes should insulate against capital fall. 
 

My portfolio is heavily weighted toward oil and fags at present! Need to get me some arms dealing, booze and betting stocks.....

Take advantage of the woke attitude of shunning these ‘unethical’ sectors.

You jest V but earlier Robert Kyosaki was on Stansberry research telling Daniela he’s recently been selling some of his pallets of small firearms bullets for 10x what he paid a couple years ago, I think we might’ve missed that trade unless you are envisaging civil war amongst the shelves in Waitrose 😬

[Hardhat]

Relevant news on green hydrogen

https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/european-companies-unveil-plan-massive-solar-hydro/

 

Already a hot sector, but I think I want more hydrogen exposure. Does anyone hold any of the following?

The HyDeal Ambition group includes the following companies and organisations:

• Solar developers: DH2/Dhamma Energy (Spain), Falck Renewables (Italy), Qair (France)
• Electrolysis and engineering specialists: McPhy Energy (France), Vinci Construction (France)
• Gas companies: Enagas (Spain), OGE (Germany), SNAM (Italy), GRTgaz (France), Terega (France)
• Industrial groups: Gazel Energie, (France), Naturgy (Spain), HDF Energie (France)

[nomadic]

18 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ive brought a portable grill thingy to my hotel room to save money on takeaways (as restaurants are shut). Not sure how it will cook this fillet steak though. Or if it'll set off the smoke alarms!

I am staying in a hotel room in the Algarve, Portugal and bought a portable single hob for €15 and cook out on my balcony.

The hotel does a €10 menu delivered to the room, but I am paying less than €13 a night to stay here, so I cook my own. Nice 3 star hotel too with a pool. 

Anyway, I have become a master of cooking on one hob. Even made lasagne the other night. Rarely spend more than €3 per meal. Lunch is usually around €2 a day. I only eat two meals in a strict 8 hour window.

The money I have made with Great Panther alone has paid 3 months living expenses here, with a surprisingly small initial investment!