Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

 

Michael Burry on the upcoming inflation. 

 

Quote thread on run up to Weimar is great stuff. Could be describing now. 

[Option5]

48 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

That's the bugger! Norwegian owner. 

 

Knew there was some Scandinavian link there 😂

 

Cheers L! 👍

Its Frontline. Leo just got it for me. 

 

Cheers though Loki 👍

His other businesses, especially Seadrill are in deep shit.

[leonardratso]

17 minutes ago, Option5 said:

His other businesses, especially Seadrill are in deep shit.

hehe, not suprised, every one knows a black and decker wont work underwater.

 

Offshore drilling rig contractor Seadrill has filed for bankruptcy protection at a court in the U.S. state of Texas, it said on Wednesday, the second time in four years the company has entered into so-called Chapter 11 restructuring.The Oslo-listed group controlled by Norwegian-born billionaire John Fredriksen returned to court along with several subsidiaries after failing to win consent from bank lenders to postpone payments on $5…

hahaha, nice cut off point, i can lend them that $5 if they want to pay me back $8 later.

https://www.oedigital.com/seadrill

Another great headline on that page;

Vantage Drilling Agrees to Manage Seadrill Partners' Floaters

I think ill give black and decker a call and see if they can manage my floaters.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

IMO many resource stocks are overbought ATM.  They can stay overbought but usually the best of the price action has happened by then and price gets more volatile with an increased risk of going nowhere.  All over the longer (monthly) term.

Agree,i sold BHP as i was up around 100% on them in a year.The time to buy them was last March.Iv owned them and Anglo around 7 times in my life and il own them again,just not now.They are fantastic companies,but i always buy them when they are hated.I actually think BHP are worth around £26 a share,but i wanted 65% over the cycle and so they had to go.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

 

Michael Burry on the upcoming inflation. 

 

Quote thread on run up to Weimar is great stuff. Could be describing now. 

They arent even hiding it.They need it,they want it,and they will get it.Western economies are in a systemic risk zone.We wont get hyperinflation though,just high,nasty inflation.It will be brutal to people who have fixed incomes or pensions invested in the wrong areas.Its laughable how people think growth companies will save them from an inflation cycle.Its the worst area to be invested in.The hated sectors are the protection and they are hardly owned.

[Errol]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be brutal to people who have fixed incomes 

So basically the entire working population then?

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

So basically the entire working population then?

No,the entire unworking population.

[ashestoashes]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

So basically the entire working population then?

don't see how people are going to get pay rises

[ThoughtCriminal]

Now there's a scary chart. 

[Jesus Wept]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Now there's a scary chart. 

This chart is quite something isn’t it?
 

It suggests a Big Kahuna ....no? 
 

Maybe time to sit and build cash? 

[Castlevania]

On 05/02/2021 at 23:16, Democorruptcy said:

It does get my goat because I suggested HL changed it last year. I'm not convinced some newbies won't get sucked in, while interest are so low.

Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today had a moan about HL’s dividend data being wrong and contacted HL to tell them. HL are apparently “looking to correct these issues”. Don’t hold your breath.

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

This chart is quite something isn’t it?
 

It suggests a Big Kahuna ....no? 
 

Maybe time to sit and build cash? 

They certainly seem to have detached from their normal pattern. 

 

So either a new paradigm or maybe the BK will be even bigger than DH thinks? 

[ThoughtCriminal]

2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today had a moan about HL’s dividend data being wrong and contacted HL to tell them. HL are apparently “looking to correct these issues”. Don’t hold your breath.

Arent most on here using HL? 

 

Or are they starting to go off the boil? 

[Calcutta]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

Ian Cowie in the Sunday Times today had a moan about HL’s dividend data being wrong and contacted HL to tell them. HL are apparently “looking to correct these issues”. Don’t hold your breath.

Spent half an hour filling in the form and scrolling thru hundreds of pages of calendar to find my date of birth only to find out their 'continue' button won't work on my phone. So yeah nah not fancying this fellas chances. 

Lot of shares are on the way up. I have to come clean and admit I'm looking at BA starting to recover a little and can't stop thinking how sweet it would be to own an airline... 

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Arent most on here using HL? 

 

Or are they starting to go off the boil? 

I’m using them. For years they were one of the few brokers with an easy to use website. There may be better options nowadays but I’m happy with them. Their fees are good value as long as you avoid buying funds. The dividend yield number I always knew to be wrong. They do seem to be spending money on updating their technology - I can now buy Italian shares without having to phone them up.

[JREWING]

20 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

This chart is quite something isn’t it?
 

It suggests a Big Kahuna ....no? 
 

Maybe time to sit and build cash? 

Now Divi week has been and gone. The glorious leader sets out our escape over the barbed wire.

I see a few pence to be made some nice entry points. Low P/E ratio's out there.

BATS, IMB, GSK, BP.

The miner's look like a good buy. Polymetal, Fres, CEY, I think we could see a bullish week.

I don't see a big K. More a transition stock rotation away from speculation into needs and musts.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

DH now explicitly predicting a depression in the 30s.

 

Is that new? I know he's always hinted at dark times ahead, but I don't recall him using the D word before. 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

DH now explicitly predicting a depression in the 30s.

Jogged my brain cells, 1930s

[M S E Refugee]

I think that it may be prudent to move into cash as Mr Hunters targets are achieved.

As soon as the S&P reaches around 4500 I will start to move into cash.

Tesla will be the catalyst, It is the most valuable Car company on the Planet even though it doesn't sell many Cars, absolute madness!

[Noallegiance]

[ThoughtCriminal]

8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that it may be prudent to move into cash as Mr Hunters targets are achieved.

As soon as the S&P reaches around 4500 I will start to move into cash.

Tesla will be the catalyst, It is the most valuable Car company on the Planet even though it doesn't sell many Cars, absolute madness!

Agree

Tesla is a big bundle of insanity and is begging to be shorted by those who have the balls. 

 

I'll kick myself for not being amongst them lol

[Jesus Wept]

7 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I think that it may be prudent to move into cash as Mr Hunters targets are achieved.

As soon as the S&P reaches around 4500 I will start to move into cash.

Tesla will be the catalyst, It is the most valuable Car company on the Planet even though it doesn't sell many Cars, absolute madness!

As inflation builds... do we...

Move into cash or move further into:

Oil, Potash,Telcos, Industrials/ Infrastructure , Miners, Silver, Metals, Commodities, Value dividend stocks..?

What’s your timing on this? 

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

As inflation builds... do we...

Move into cash or move further into:

Oil, Potash,Telcos, Industrials/ Infrastructure , Miners, Silver, Metals, Commodities, Value dividend stocks..?

What’s your timing on this? 

I will take my cue from the big brains on this Forum.

They haven't let me down yet and have provided fantastic insight into things I would never have looked at in a million years.

Even though I am really happy with my portfolio I would expect Tesla to take everything down with it.

[ThoughtCriminal]

30 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

As inflation builds... do we...

Move into cash or move further into:

Oil, Potash,Telcos, Industrials/ Infrastructure , Miners, Silver, Metals, Commodities, Value dividend stocks..?

What’s your timing on this? 

Isn't DBs thesis that, although there could well be a BK, the sectors you've listed will still do well enough over the course of the 20s to just ride it out?

 

I suppose the split will be between those who let it ride and those who exit hoping to buy back in post dip

 

 

[Harley]

Re.  US ETFs and UK retail investors:

https://justetf.com/uk/academy/us-etfs-how-to-buy-the-best-equivalent-etfs-in-the-uk.html

Nice to see them trying, although the test alternative I looked at was a poor substitute.

Note the disappointing comment about the likely continuation of the current regime, at least for now.