Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

11 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

don't see how people are going to get pay rises

Easily,they wont work otherwise.Inflation flows through everything.It lifts almost all costs higher.However that doesnt say their wages will keep up,it could be 3% wage increase 4% inflation.Someone in a pension drawdown might see at best flatline after costs,but more likely before costs.They could be seeing 2% costs,5% drawdown 4% inflation a year over the cycle.

Its the old the one eyed man is king in the land of the blind.

[Harley]

14 hours ago, Vendetta said:

CMOP

CMOD

Commodity indexes by Bloomberg. 
 

Plus there are lot of other metal plays etc...

Here is the watchlist I set up in April 2020.

Fuck.... if I’d had a bit more liquidity / money and understood ISAs and investing properly back then I might have played things slightly differently.

Mind this is probably hindsight and confirmation bias.... should’ve  could’ve .... would’ve....

Question is..... is it too late now? I think so .... Big Kahuna coming maybe? I am reluctant to put money in a fund / stock that has gone up so much already....  mind if it is the start of a commodity super cycle..... ??? 🤔 

I just want the tech bubble and bitcoin to pop in next 6 months and take everything out in a big deflationary big kahuna - so everything goes down the shitter and people are desperate to cover margin.....except OIL and telecoms and a few value stocks like fags and GSK.

Then the governments just print print print.... but maybe that’s already happened....

 

If that's an extract of your portfolio then we defo need an "envy" button!  It always seems so obvious with hindsight!

PS:  Nah, honestly, well done, so a "cheers" instead!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

I’m using them. For years they were one of the few brokers with an easy to use website. There may be better options nowadays but I’m happy with them. Their fees are good value as long as you avoid buying funds. The dividend yield number I always knew to be wrong. They do seem to be spending money on updating their technology - I can now buy Italian shares without having to phone them up.

I didnt know they were offering Italian shares,i wish they would offer Japan many of interest over there.

[SpectrumFX]

4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Isn't DBs thesis that, although there could well be a BK, the sectors you've listed will still do well enough over the course of the 20s to just ride it out?

 

I suppose the split will be between those who let it ride and those who exit hoping to buy back in post dip

 

 

A timed exit and later buyback is obviously the best outcome.

The trouble is timing it.

What do you do if you sell too soon? I can imagine spending 6 months sitting in cash watching the markets going up and up, and then giving up and buying back in just before the crash.

My one big takeaway from HPC was that you can outsmart yourself, and end up sitting around - perhaps for decades - perfectly prepared for the rational sensible thing that you're absolutely certain will happen. And then it doesn't happen. Or at least not within a timescale that makes it any bloody use to you.

[Harley]

17 hours ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

What's the best play on this? Is there a general ETF or similar?

You might find this article interesting:

https://justetf.com/uk/how-to/invest-in-commodities.html

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 minute ago, SpectrumFX said:

A timed exit and later buyback is obviously the best outcome.

The trouble is timing it.

What do you do if you sell too soon? I can imagine spending 6 months sitting in cash watching the markets going up and up, and then giving up and buying back in just before the crash.

My one big takeaway from HPC was that you can outsmart yourself, and end up sitting around - perhaps for decades - perfectly prepared for the rational sensible thing that you're absolutely certain will happen. And then it doesn't happen. Or at least not within a timescale that makes it any bloody use to you.

Yup. 

 

"In the long term were all dead" hangs over us all. 

[Castlevania]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I didnt know they were offering Italian shares,i wish they would offer Japan many of interest over there.

I’ve only bought Eni and Telecom Italia. They claim to have everything listed on the Italian Stock Exchange available.

AJBell allow you to buy Japanese stocks but have to be bought in standard lot sizes - which can easily mean having to buy in the tens of thousands of pounds. Quite a few Japanese companies do have ADR’s available, which can be bought via HL.

[wherebee]

5 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

A timed exit and later buyback is obviously the best outcome.

The trouble is timing it.

What do you do if you sell too soon? I can imagine spending 6 months sitting in cash watching the markets going up and up, and then giving up and buying back in just before the crash/

the other risk is bail ins and changes to investment rules for retail.  what if the government decides that retail investors can only invest through approved investment funds in future if they have less than 250k to invest? I could easily see that being pushed after gamestop and any BK that wipes our mom and pops.

if you already have investments, you might avoid that fate.  cash on the sidelines..?

my big fear are bail ins.  If I have money sitting in an aussie bank and it goes under, I could easily see the gvt here taking 20% off everyone to keep the Big 4 going.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

My one big takeaway from HPC was that you can outsmart yourself, and end up sitting around - perhaps for decades - perfectly prepared for the rational sensible thing that you're absolutely certain will happen. And then it doesn't happen. Or at least not within a timescale that makes it any bloody use to you.

.......'Cause it's all true!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Easily,they wont work otherwise.Inflation flows through everything.It lifts almost all costs higher.However that doesnt say their wages will keep up,it could be 3% wage increase 4% inflation.Someone in a pension drawdown might see at best flatline after costs,but more likely before costs.They could be seeing 2% costs,5% drawdown 4% inflation a year over the cycle.

Its the old the one eyed man is king in the land of the blind.

I take it this is another reason why house prices will fall at least in the south east, in addition to interest rate rises. If food and energy costs are rising by more than salaries then less money remains for mortgages or rent.

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve only bought Eni and Telecom Italia. They claim to have everything listed on the Italian Stock Exchange available.

AJBell allow you to buy Japanese stocks but have to be bought in standard lot sizes - which can easily mean having to buy in the tens of thousands of pounds. Quite a few Japanese companies do have ADR’s available, which can be bought via HL.

I think HL was always more for funds and the fact their clients might like to add the odd UK blue chip.Their Sipp fees are very low for anyone just holding shares or investment trusts.Maybe with all the other trading apps they are starting to offer lots more countries.

[Mapper]

9 minutes ago, wherebee said:

what if the government decides that retail investors can only invest through approved investment funds in future if they have less than 250k to invest? I could easily see that being pushed after gamestop and any BK that wipes our mom and pops.

That makes me feel sick reading it.

It's terrifying really, and it will all be done with a "it's for your safety, we're looking out for you, trust us" spin.

Most people will lap it up, too.

[Alex]

20 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I could easily see the gvt here taking 20% off everyone to keep the Big 4 going.

I reckon they'd take the lot.

[AlfredTheLittle]

17 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

 

 

[NogintheNog]

53 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

My one big takeaway from HPC was that you can outsmart yourself, and end up sitting around - perhaps for decades - perfectly prepared for the rational sensible thing that you're absolutely certain will happen. And then it doesn't happen. Or at least not within a timescale that makes it any bloody use to you.

I know an acquaintance who has been in cash and a little bit of gold since 2006-7. He listened to the talking heads and sold his property > cash. Been there ever since which has done him no favours at all, barely any growth and he would now need a far bigger mortgage to buy his old house back.... He has always slated my continual investments in Stocks and Shares ISA and SIPPs.

I think the BK will be in the 'non essentials', we're not all gonna be driving round in Teslas, but we will be filling the tanks of our ICE cars and trucks for decades! Long BP, Shell etc. Though I'll likely take some profits if we get to $100 oil.

54 minutes ago, wherebee said:

my big fear are bail ins.  If I have money sitting in an aussie bank and it goes under, I could easily see the gvt here taking 20% off everyone to keep the Big 4 going.

Always a concern no doubt. But if they do that Gold/Silver goes to the moon. Bitcoin will probably be somewhere out near Pluto.

[JREWING]

We talk about this “BIG KAHUNA”.

I don’t know how old you lot are, I’m 53 this year, and feel it. I joined HPC in Oct 2003, having sold to rent in the September of 2003; so put my money where my mouth was. I was eagerly awaiting the big crash.

Telling everyone who was sad enough to listen how the housing market was going to crash. I was going to buy back in at 1996 prices. The site was full of rampant posters all going crazy on how house prices had doubled, Could not go on any longer we all said. Bloodbath, Big K. No rabbits to be pulled outta this one we thought. F00k me how wrong I was, we all were.

Fuck me. I’m an old man now; I might not be here in 2030. If I am, what kind of health issues may I have? The way the world is going; well who know’s if you want to be here in 2030? It’s f00king crazy.

If you had told me back in 2003, what has happened since then will happen, as it has happened. I would have put you over my knee and smacked your ass.

NIRP, HTB, QE, TFL, Shitcoin, Fludemic, Johnson as PM, cross gender confused young adults and all the other crazy shit which has gone on.

Well if you can predict what will happen between today and 2030. If I get there, well I’ll see you there,and I bet you would never believe it; what will happen, has happened, relative to what you think may happen as of today.

Wouldn’t surprise me if we are not all living in little pods, allowed out for one hour a day, food delivered by designated inmates, and no travel outside your designated community. You will be happy, why because they told you you are happy.

 

[AWW]

29 minutes ago, JREWING said:

You will be happy, why because they told you you are happy.

 

The thing is, probably half the population would be happy with that. As long as there's sport to bet on, singing "celebs" to watch on TV and cat videos to "like".

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

AJBell allow you to buy Japanese stocks but have to be bought in standard lot sizes - which can easily mean having to buy in the tens of thousands of pounds.

I'm not sure how much that is an AJB thing as fixed lot sizes also apply in say IB, as well as for some other Asian markets.  Not that this runs into the tens of thousands of pounds.

Can you buy these Japanese stocks via AJB on-line or are they a telephone trade?

Update:. Ah, could possibly live with the £min as I could first accumulate elsewhere but not telephone or out of hours...

"We offer dealing in Australian, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore markets by phone only and there is a minimum investment size of £10,000.

Orders in these markets will only be accepted between 8am and 5pm on UK business days. For some shares you will need to place your deal as a limit order; our dealing services team can confirm this for you.

Japanese, Hong Kong and Singapore shares are traded in ‘board lot sizes’ which represent the recognised exchange trading unit. The board lot sizes vary for different exchanges and securities and you can only buy shares in the standard unit of trading for the security. Our dealing services team will confirm the lot sizes for you when you place your order. If you hold any shares outside of these standard lot sizes these will dealt in what is known as the odd lot market and prices for these will be slightly lower than that of the same security in the board lot market due to their lower liquidity. Please note that limit orders are not possible for the amount of your order that is dealt in the odd lot market."

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

Bitcoin will probably be somewhere out near Pluto

It'll get there anyway looking at it's chart!

[Bobthebuilder]

43 minutes ago, JREWING said:

 

I don’t know how old you lot are, I’m 53 this year, and feel it. I joined HPC in Oct 2003

Pretty much the same age, I found TOS in 2003/2004. It's been a mental ride so far that's for sure. Who would have guessed back then just for how long they have kept the plates spinning. TBH I wouldn't change a thing if I could go back, worked out ok so far.

Building a pension is my aim for the next few years, looking to get good divi payers on the dips, I have learnt to be patient and wait for the moment.

[Hancock]

2 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

A timed exit and later buyback is obviously the best outcome.

The trouble is timing it.

Kind of reminds me of those on HPC who STR in 2007 or before.

They all lost their shirts and fucked up badly.

The shouty Scottish bloke who is on the radio from time to time being one of them  ... 1 other guy on there STR'd moved back in with his mother and still hadn't bought back even up until a few years ago ... he seemed very depressed.

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

Telling everyone who was sad enough to listen how the housing market was going to crash. I was going to buy back in at 1996 prices. 

 

Yep that was me, i'd sit with property developers telling them the price of their slaves boxes would crash as it was the biggest bubble in history. (to be fair they did as this was in Bulgaria)

But in regards to having no freedom, i think if the govt can no longer print money to pay plebs to watch over us in a variety of ways then there may be a window of freedom ... until they tighten the screw further.

[Hancock]

33 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

. TBH I wouldn't change a thing if I could go back, worked out ok so far.

Had to untick you, fuck me there are endless things i would change, such a buying a property at 2003 epic bubble utterly insane levels ... . Or better still emigrated properly not my half arsed attempt that involved returning to the UK for work.

[Bricormortis]

40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Pretty much the same age, I found TOS in 2003/2004. It's been a mental ride so far that's for sure. Who would have guessed back then just for how long they have kept the plates spinning. TBH I wouldn't change a thing if I could go back, worked out ok so far.

Building a pension is my aim for the next few years, looking to get good divi payers on the dips, I have learnt to be patient and wait for the moment.

Thats the one.

[Harley]

I was happy renting, even missing out on the gains, given my belief in a HPC (having come back to the UK and seeing it as relatively insane).  But then they took interest rates to the floor and so I could not subsidise the rent with interest.  And of course those low rates (plus easy lending) just beget higher house prices.  Like being in a room with all the walls closing in together.  With hindsight I should have been more aggressive in moving into equities but this was my house, not investment, money.  Ended up buying cheap elsewhere and renovating, which took me on another (enjoyable) path.  B'tards and their bankrupt and stupid money games.  It's polluted everything.