Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

2 hours ago, JREWING said:

I've always been buy it low. Wait for how long and sell at a profit. Diversified gives me too many things to focus on

yeah I hear ya.....RDSB was circa £9 to circa £14 twice in a row......who gives a crap about divis when you can BTFD like that and cash out for a decent profit???

[nirvana]

28 minutes ago, JREWING said:

Never sold at a loss in my life

Bravo that's balls o steel or you're very patient.....maybe I need to grab myself some chinese balls to play with 

[Errol]

[M S E Refugee]

2 hours ago, Vendetta said:

That’s my problem.

I have no idea what to buy....

I’m relatively cash rich.

All I want is reasonable dividend paying stocks that keep pace with inflation and in 15 years time will still be worth a bit.

 

At the moment my ‘top 3’ are:

GSK

BT

Telefonica

And I am not even convinced on them...

Everything else looks overvalued or too risky. 
 

Anyone any ideas or suggestions. 
 

I would have loved to have got some miners last year. RIO, BHP, AAL etc...

 

Fuck... 

(holding already: BP, RDSB, VOD, IMB, BAT, ENB, REP, GSK, VZ, Gold and Silver).

I quite like some of American and Canadian REITS such as Stag Industrial ,Pembina Pipeline and Shaw Communications.

They all pay out monthly dividends rather than quarterly.

[harp]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

@harp

Is this you? 

No! But it’s just what David cunter does. Put that twat out to grass 

 

[Errol]

Following a nuclear-powered icebreaker, a Russian tanker has sailed through the frigid Northern Sea Route for the first time ever in February

The Christophe de Margerie, a liquefied natural gas tanker operated by Russian shipping firm Sovcomflot, made history this week when it docked at the remote Arctic terminal of Sabetta, after sailing through the normally ice-locked Northern Sea Route (NSR) from Jiangsu in China. Traveling solo through the Bering Strait, it then followed a nuclear icebreaker, the 50 Let Pobedy, along Russia’s northern coast until it reached Sabetta on Friday.

https://www.rt.com/russia/516232-northern-passage-nuclear-icebreaker-reaction/

[Barnsey]

10 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Here's a potential BK trigger in the autumn, @sancho panza:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/23/beware-soaring-bond-yields-dont-pull-trigger-just-yet/

Matches up with what I posted from Nordea, but now that this is becoming consensus, what could they do to avoid this given the last tantrum is still recent history?

In other news, as expected...

 

[Barnsey]

£450 of helicopter money for HK residents (an idea to be replicated globally?)

And inflation/reflation on the way

Even for us...

 

[wherebee]

On 14/02/2021 at 11:47, wherebee said:

Having travelled in the US for decades on and off, for business, the decline of the mall was visible 5+ years ago.  I remember passing the same mall ten years apart and being shocked how run down it looked.  Online shopping, multiculturalism, etc, kill public shopping experiences.

 can see a two-tone world, where in some countries malls are still going, in others dead and gone.  for those latter countries, the losses to lenders will be immense.

caught my eye today; bearing in mind much of australia was not locked down and has not had a pandemic.  Imagine the numbers in other countries:

"Shopping centre landlord Scentre, the operator of Westfield malls, has posted a 42.5 per cent plunge in its 2021 annual earnings to $766.1 million, after the pandemic disruption ate into its rent collection."

[wherebee]

18 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

£450 of helicopter money for HK residents (an idea to be replicated globally?)

 

hong kong has done that before though.  their government structure is set up so if the island makes a profit they give money back.  last time I think was 2000 dollars.  

This might be a reaction to the pandemic, but it's not an outlier.  Now, if singapore starts doing it...

[Lightscribe]

13 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Repsol have been pretty good for me since October.

Going to be topping up my SIPP in March and SISA in April, not sure I wanna buy anything at the moment, it feels like the calm before the storm.

Repsol has seen my biggest gain so far in the sector. Although I’m sure the strength of the £ has something to do with that also.

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

... (and gold) must be near (weeks) a turn. 

A turn which way? It's been going sideways for 7 months.  

[Harley]

15 hours ago, nirvana said:

If only I could control this boredom a bit more successfully 

Get a dog.  Jack Russell if you're a bit hyperactive!

[Harley]

15 hours ago, nirvana said:

I'm not convinced by this 'diversified portfolio' approach anymore......everything just stalks the stock markets nowadays cos that's where all the newly printed money is going.......

I'll sleep on it but I might sell everything and stick it all on Nasdaq moving up and down....and US Oil......the oilies are moving like dogshite compared to the underlying 

Agreed. I was looking at post Feb20 correlations like equity/bonds.  Not seeing the love!  Too much money out there?  Need a crash/reset to clear.  Ctl-alt-del!

[Harley]

13 hours ago, Vendetta said:

That’s my problem.

I have no idea what to buy....

I’m relatively cash rich.

All I want is reasonable dividend paying stocks that keep pace with inflation and in 15 years time will still be worth a bit.

 

At the moment my ‘top 3’ are:

GSK

BT

Telefonica

And I am not even convinced on them...

Everything else looks overvalued or too risky. 
 

Anyone any ideas or suggestions. 
 

I would have loved to have got some miners last year. RIO, BHP, AAL etc...

 

Fuck... 

(holding already: BP, RDSB, VOD, IMB, BAT, ENB, REP, GSK, VZ, Gold and Silver).

Japan?  GSK chart looks a dog atm.

[JREWING]

Anyone missed it.

Good watch.

Link

In the second half, Max interviews Mitch Feierstein of Planet Ponzi about his thoughts on Stan Druckenmiller going “very, very short on dollar” and if the time is finally right for Japan after a decades-long deflation. Link

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Repsol has seen my biggest gain so far in the sector. Although I’m sure the strength of the £ has something to do with that also.

Strong pound hurts returns on foreign holdings.If you bought last March then sterling moves against the euro means a 5% lower price for Repsol today.Its done fantastic for us,i actually tagged the bottom on it with a big buy,and it still looks great value.

[Lightscribe]

48 minutes ago, Harley said:

Get a dog.  Jack Russell if you're a bit hyperactive!

Or trade crypto with up to x100 leverage, certainly not for the faint of heart! 
 

https://www.bitmex.com

[Yadda yadda yadda]

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Strong pound hurts returns on foreign holdings.If you bought last March then sterling moves against the euro means a 5% lower price for Repsol today.Its done fantastic for us,i actually tagged the bottom on it with a big buy,and it still looks great value.

Stronger pound helps with the buying though! I see we tagged 1.42 USD in a spike this morning. Expecting a turn down for the pound soon? If foreign holidays get the ok that will lead to Euro demand.

[JMD]

I mentioned recently am looking to add some more silver miners. Anyway these look good resources for silver and gold miners... That is, if you like lots and lots(!!) of data, reserves, etc.

The Gold site is restricted to subscription, though not all of it i think, e.g. click 'companies'. Silver site is open access.

Data, tools and analysis for gold and silver stock investors (goldstockdata.com)

List of Silver Mining Stocks - Silver Stock Data

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Get a dog.  Jack Russell if you're a bit hyperactive!

Nah I'm in love with bikes, baguettes and errrrr buttocks.....I mean sunshine! 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

It's been going down, clearly. Latest lower low was last week.

This is true. I'm a twat. And visually impaired. And impatient. Consider myself prodded.

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, JMD said:

I mentioned recently am looking to add some more silver miners. Anyway these look good resources for silver and gold miners... That is, if you like lots and lots(!!) of data, reserves, etc.

The Gold site is restricted to subscription, though not all of it i think, e.g. click 'companies'. Silver site is open access.

Data, tools and analysis for gold and silver stock investors (goldstockdata.com)

List of Silver Mining Stocks - Silver Stock Data

 

After taking profit from Great Panther, I’m now inclined to put something into Silver Bear knowing absolutely nothing about the company, debt, resources or output.

Although Silver Bear doesn’t really have a positive vibe to it, I may buy a majority stake and demand it be renamed to Silver Moon Hawk instead.

https://www.goldstockdata.com/company/425-Silver-Bear-Resources-Plc.html

[nirvana]

35 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I see we tagged 1.42 USD in a spike this morning

good eyes sir, I saw that too, SELL THE RIPS! 

[Bricks & Mortar]

26 minutes ago, JMD said:

I mentioned recently am looking to add some more silver miners. Anyway these look good resources for silver and gold miners... That is, if you like lots and lots(!!) of data, reserves, etc.

The Gold site is restricted to subscription, though not all of it i think, e.g. click 'companies'. Silver site is open access.

Data, tools and analysis for gold and silver stock investors (goldstockdata.com)

List of Silver Mining Stocks - Silver Stock Data

 

On the listing for Vangold, (a silver junior), it reads "As of 06/06/2020 they have no debt and ~C$2.38M cash."

I would warn there's been some major changes since then.  They've raised finance, bought a nearby mine (El Cubo, recently closed by Endeavour - wasn't economic at $16 silver), and have a plan for trucking a large pile of ancient tailings from their El Pinguico mine to be processed.

Alls I'm saying is, not the most up to date.  (I've been considering vangold for a punt myself).