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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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7 hours ago, JMD said:

I mentioned recently am looking to add some more silver miners. Anyway these look good resources for silver and gold miners... That is, if you like lots and lots(!!) of data, reserves, etc.

Honey Badger Silver

New Found Gold

Timberline Resources

White Gold

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2 hours ago, CVG said:

Also originally from SE. Inspired by DB's recent suggestion, I quite fancy this one in Darlington. If I was still WFH then I might have home office envy. Is that an intercom on the table? "Get the dinner on. I'll be home in 5 minutes"

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/102411980#/

One of the best areas in Darlo,all have big gardens and the west side is the posh side.East coast mainline station to Kings Cross in 2hr10mins,coast 25 mins,Lake District 1hr 20mins etc.

That seperate office is a nice addition.Let me know when you move xD

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24 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Can someone smarter than me elaborate on this from DH please:

"With the economy opening up around the world, you are going to see cyclical earnings ramp up as you see operating leverage at work. It's what always happens coming out of a recession."

Cyclicals have high fixed costs where turnover above that means big profits.If a bus breaks even with 12 passengers then it makes £3 profit per journey with 13,they make £6 profit with 14 passengers,so profits double on only an 8% increase in turnover.

Oil companies are similar.BP needs around $40 to cover everything,so oil from $50 to $60 doubles profits.

Amazon only has margins of around 2% and turnover increasing doesnt leverage anything as their input costs rise at the same pace.

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5 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

This....

Maybe pick and choose from their TOP 10s....

I wondered about the trading costs becoming prohibitive compared to a fund but I suppose it's a small percentage

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https://www.teletrader.com/sunak-to-increase-uk-corporation-tax-report/news/details/54724020?internal=1

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will increase the corporation tax rate in an effort to restore Britain's public finances, from the current 19% to reportedly 25% or higher, Financial Times shared on Wednesday, citing officials working on United Kingdom's Budget plan.

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I'm back already!

Putting myself in the 'hall o shame'......did I say I sold a lot o RDSB? bastard went up 52p!

Stop fiddling with yer 'long term trades' you arsehole...........on a plus note BP went up even more! :Jumping:

NURSE! customer in aisle 2!

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2 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.teletrader.com/sunak-to-increase-uk-corporation-tax-report/news/details/54724020?internal=1

British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak will increase the corporation tax rate in an effort to restore Britain's public finances, from the current 19% to reportedly 25% or higher, Financial Times shared on Wednesday, citing officials working on United Kingdom's Budget plan.

More offshoring of profits and the tax take will hardly rise.Unless he says 1% a year for 5 years or something.Of course its really stealing from pensions as dividends fall.It does make companies invest though as its better to lower profits.They compare to the US,but they have much lower taxes in other areas.If true it seems the Tories would rather destroy the economy than cut a penny from benefits.

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3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I'm back already!

Putting myself in the 'hall o shame'......did I say I sold a lot o RDSB? bastard went up 52p!

Stop fiddling with yer 'long term trades' you arsehole...........on a plus note BP went up even more! :Jumping:

NURSE! customer in aisle 2!

I told you before to go and do something else,ride your bike,go looking for mushrooms ,or bake some steak pies O.o

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Just now, DurhamBorn said:

More offshoring of profits and the tax take will hardly rise.Unless he says 1% a year for 5 years or something.Of course its really stealing from pensions as dividends fall.It does make companies invest though as its better to lower profits.They compare to the US,but they have much lower taxes in other areas.If true it seems the Tories would rather destroy the economy than cut a penny from benefits.

Are they having to make these decisions as it's too early to cut bennies? What would bennies be replaced with? Benny cut once the government has reflation jobs to offer?

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3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that it is looking carefully at issuing a digital US dollar.
  • Powell called the potential digital dollar a "high priority" project, according to the testimony.
  • The potential issuance of a digital dollar would come amid a surge in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, which briefly surpassed $1 trillion in market value last week.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday that the Fed is "looking carefully" at whether it should issue a digital US dollar.

A digital currency developed by the fed is a "high priority project for us," Powell told Congress, but he added that there are "significant technical and policy questions" related to a digital US dollar.

"We are committed to solving the technology problems, and consulting very broadly with the public and very transparently with all interested constituencies as to whether we should do this," Powell said.

As the world's reserve currency, Powell stressed that the US doesn't have to be first in issuing a digital dollar, but it needs "to get it right."

This is something we're investing time and labor in, across the Federal Reserve system," Powell said.

The move would come amid a surge in popularity for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and ethereum. Bitcoin briefly reached $1 trillion in market value last week and traded above $58,000 over the weekend. 
 

Wonder what effect this will have? 

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8 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Problem is after all this time trying to do the sensible thing I really want to buy something debt free. Actually to be more honest, what I really want to do is go to bed at night knowing that what I have is mine and nobody can kick me out of it. But it's that attitude that has got me where I am today - nowhere.

 

I hear you.  But I do think the risk now is that those WITH debt do better than those WITHOUT debt as inflation rips and (as long as you fixed rates) debt is inflated away hugely.  It's how my parents went from scraping by in 1979 to owning a million pound house mortgage free two decades later - inflation in house prices whilst the debt went backwards.

If I was buying now and I could get a low fix for 10/15 years, I would be filling my boots AS LONG AS the area in the UK was free of enrichment. I do think times are going to get pretty tough for people by 2030, and if you look back 100 years, a key indicator of a safe life was how far you lived from the poorest areas.

 

Edit: portfolio up another 2% overnight.  Take that, tech bubble believers!

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1 hour ago, Hancock said:

 

Lets hope they default, less for banks to lend ... £100bln in fees is a nice little earner ... seems Jonny Foreigner wants the taxpayer to fund the fees via business rate holiday. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/24/heathrow-sinks-2bn-loss-pandemic/

image.png.0bfc555654d3d3e7e33f6488b605fd0a.png

 

image.png.2c29990b80d8d2e0556d1f52974a7add.png

It amazes every time when i see companies with such a debt mountain that somehow continue to trade. Debt is king it seems.

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9 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

I'm feeling your pain this morning. Similar amount in savings myself, been waiting to buy and busting a gut to save more, always outpaced by HPI. I am now expecting massive inflation, against which house prices may rise nominally but fall in real terms. So sitting here with the wife looking on Rightmove and trying to decide whether to:

  • Try to buy a roof over our heads with our cash savings whilst holding on to our inflation proof assets - this would mean a max purchase price of £150k, which is just about doable if we buy some shithole in the bottom of a bigger shithole in shitsville
  • Buy a place in France for the same money, have plenty of space, land, weather etc. Downside is the travel restrictions and a different language & culture, and a wife who can see the practical reasons for doing it but her heart is not in it
  • Chuck all the cash into a basket of shares and keep renting and hoping for the best.

I feel so utterly disenfranchised with this country, I can't even put it into words. I know so many people here will feel the same, but I feel like I've been responsible, prudent, never taken a penny from the state and always made my own way. I've paid masses of tax over the years. And what have I got for it? Butt fucked, that's what. I read @Harleyin another post saying it felt like being in a room with the walls closing in. Yes, exactly, and there are no doors or windows that I can see.

I know it's also said often on here, but I am not a gambler, and never wanted to be. I just wanted a quiet peaceful life, looking after me and mine and not bothering anyone else. I have honestly never felt so bereft of hope in my life as I have these last few days.

At least there's always Rachel Riley.

Agree, and this Covid shit is the last straw. I am now looking at planning my escape...where?...I don't know, but I am going to take my liquid assets overseas, grab some work whatsoever it is when I can, move around and pause occasionally until I find somewhere that seems worthwhile....lets be honest whatever happens, wherever I am a) its got to be cheaper than `surviving` in the UK, and b) it will offer me more opportunities, as the UK now has little to offer unless you are  happy to spend the rest of your life on benefits and watching TV all day.

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On interest rates,i was pre-approved for £50k loan with Barclays at 2.9% a year ago.Just checked and its now pre-approved for £35k at 5.9%.My credit history is bullet proof,,shows the QE as expected is going to government for fiscal sending not banks.

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10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On interest rates,i was pre-approved for £50k loan with Barclays at 2.9% a year ago.Just checked and its now pre-approved for £35k at 5.9%.My credit history is bullet proof,,shows the QE as expected is going to government for fiscal sending not banks.

Also warned on various emails that credit cards just upped their requirements too

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