Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[geordie_lurch]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its starting isnt it 

I hope it doesn't change too soon as Barclays are dragging their heels over a 10 year 1.99% fix mortgage application I have in with them

[Sugarlips]

6 minutes ago, No One said:

GME skyrocketing again for fuck-knows what reason

All the meme stocks came back from the dead bigly at at the close, I can’t keep up, I imagine it’s Elon having a laugh with some pocket change..

[No One]

can anyone explain?

 

[Hunty]

22 minutes ago, No One said:

can anyone explain?

 

Fed's the only game in town. Everything else is just lipstick and blusher.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Any other recommendations? - as always I’ll do my own research.....

Japan is ideal for a value investor atm with good financials, valuations and yields.  A good chance of beating the index with some good old fashioned stock picking. Trouble is it's hard to access from an ISA.  Seems only Saxo Bank and my application to them was a total fail - a very poor performance so I ran away.  HK?  Better ISA broker access and plenty of materials type companies, although prices are a bit choppy atm.

IMO, naff all else out there atm from a value pov, apart from energy (although the monthlies are ok, the daily and weeklies are currently overbought).  See my past post lamenting the current state of the markets.

There are plenty of possible themes out there for some good talk but the prices aren't there yet (either overbought or correcting).

 

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

On the listing for Vangold, (a silver junior), it reads "As of 06/06/2020 they have no debt and ~C$2.38M cash."

I would warn there's been some major changes since then.  They've raised finance, bought a nearby mine (El Cubo, recently closed by Endeavour - wasn't economic at $16 silver), and have a plan for trucking a large pile of ancient tailings from their El Pinguico mine to be processed.

Alls I'm saying is, not the most up to date.  (I've been considering vangold for a punt myself).

Crap management?  ... certainly sounds like 'VAN gold' blew their own bloody doors off!!                                                                        Also a big thank you for the warning about the site data.

[Harley]

Went to move some REP, etc to my ISA today since it looked like my broker had primary market access so thought I could tax shelter some divs. 

They wanted a 1% forex commission (better than most!) or £50 for a £5k trade, plus deal commission, plus £10 local tax.  With the same again with any further buys or sells.  Forex each time given it's an ISA.  No way!  My other brokers charge say 0.1% forex with lower comissions.  Rip off, plus it turned out no primary market access, just CDIs with relatively miniscule volume (like 67k CDI versus 6-7m on the primary market!).  Plus several GDRs and ADRs seem to be ISA no-nos. 

Too much ISA not so good methinks given the restricted markets, instruments, and currency holding (i.e. GBP only).  At least I can hold currencies in my SIPP, etc so can buy in bulk when cheap.  Fine for FTSE but you can only go so far before you're buying dross and/or are overallocated.

PS:  Had high hopes for the Saxo ISA but alas PPP on their part so got out PDQ.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, nirvana said:

I'm back already!

Putting myself in the 'hall o shame'......did I say I sold a lot o RDSB? bastard went up 52p!

Stop fiddling with yer 'long term trades' you arsehole...........on a plus note BP went up even more! 

NURSE! customer in aisle 2!

Good!

I have two separate accounts/brokers to segregate trades from investments and make sure I wear the right hat before logging into either!  I even had to write down my system for each so as not to get confused!

Monthly price action on BP looks better than RDSB but has relatively poor financials.  Both entered the overbought zone on the daily and neither offer a bargain on the weekly.  Both seem a bit ignored compared to the US, etc.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, No One said:

can anyone explain?

 

Powell tells them he is going to print brrrr. Market goes up. Market forgets that he is going to print. Market goes down. So Powell tells them again brrrrr. He actually did it two consecutive days. He tells them the same thing over and over again and they keep going up in response. Should really only bounce on new information or actual printing.

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Powell tells them he is going to print brrrr. Market goes up. Market forgets that he is going to print. Market goes down. So Powell tells them again brrrrr. He actually did it two consecutive days. He tells them the same thing over and over again and they keep going up in response. Should really only bounce on new information or actual printing.

i try to tell my 'normie' friends about this stuff, like the amount of printing done in 2020 by the US, and what is coming, but they see it as real as astrology.  I think billions of people - no exaggeration - are going to get raw dogged and will be looking for a huge scapegoat when they have to eat beans on toast to stay alive.

Who will the scapegoat be?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, No One said:

GME skyrocketing again for fuck-knows what reason

I think it is related to options expiring this week. Looks like a lot of shares required to service calls. If people really are refusing to sell then the effective free float is very low to handle all this. Assuming the calls were sold naked.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME

Of course until they do sell and it crashes. The exit at the top is narrow. The circuit breaker kicking in just before close will have forced some to keep hold of their shares overnight.

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

I hope it doesn't change too soon as Barclays are dragging their heels over a 10 year 1.99% fix mortgage application I have in with them

Best of luck.

We got our formal offer today from Barclays. 7 year fix at 1.49%. Took a week from the agreement in principle.

[ThoughtCriminal]

CP, is that as dramatic as it sounds? 

[feed]

Also this earlier today 

https://www.teletrader.com/exxonmobil-to-sell-uk-north-sea-assets-for-over-1b/news/details/54719160?internal=1

ExxonMobil announced on Wednesday it signed an agreement to sell most of its non-operated upstream assets in the United Kingdom central and northern North Sea to private-equity fund HitecVision for over $1 billion

[Lightscribe]

18 minutes ago, wherebee said:

i try to tell my 'normie' friends about this stuff, like the amount of printing done in 2020 by the US, and what is coming, but they see it as real as astrology.  I think billions of people - no exaggeration - are going to get raw dogged and will be looking for a huge scapegoat when they have to eat beans on toast to stay alive.

Who will the scapegoat be?

In this country literally they’ll blame Brexit. I’ve discussed a global recession happening over the years with my partners friends (pre brexit vote), and the devastation it will cause then the inflation hitting afterwards.

Despite all of that they were blaming Brexit last week for all the shops closing down. I couldn’t help spelling out ‘GLOBAL’. and saying, ‘It’s a global recession which Covid was the a catalyst not the cause and the it will have the same economic effects worldwide’.

The eyes then glaze over and on to another subject.

 

[JMD]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

First coma scores of 2021.Some results not yet collated on the sites I use.17 is normally a buy but in a year like last year,you have to use some common sense.XOM and Imperial awaiting more data.Blanks are not in.

Company	Share price	Date	Chart	Inc	BS	CF	Sector	SCS
Baker Hughes	USD-23.14	18/02/21	3	1	3	2	5	14
BP	GBP-2.69	18/02/21	5	1	2	1	5	14
Can Nat Res
Chevron	USD 99.61	24/02/21	2	1	4	2	5	14
Conoco Phillips	USD-48.43	18/02/21	2	1	3	2	5	13
Devon	USD-21.59	24/02/21	5	1	2	2	5	15
Enbridge	USD 36.52	24/02/21	2	3	3	4	5	17
ENI	E 9.464	24/02/21	5	1	3	2	5	16
Equinor
Exxon Mobil	USD 55.45	24/02/21	4	1
Imperial Oil	USD 16.65	24/02/21	4	1	4
Kinder Morgan	USD 15.29	24/02/21	4	2	3	4	5	18
Lukoil
Occidental
OMV AG	USD 50.53	24/02/21	2	4	5	4	5	20
Phillips 66
Pioneer
Repsol	E 10.162	24/02/21	4	1	3	3	5	16
RDSB	GBP-1337	18/02/21	5	1	3	5	5	19
SLB	USD-26.04	18/02/21	5	1	2	3	5	16
Total	E36.66	18/02/21	3	1	3	3	5	15

 

 

 

Notes on the Coma Scores

1) Based on Glasgow Coma Score used in assessing levels of conciousness in patients.Designed for 'spray n pray' ie buying a cross section of stocks in the sector.1 is poor value,5 is great value.Higher the score the better the prospects at that price point.

2) Only as good as the data that goes in.I use investing.com or marketwatch which rely on the data provided by the companies.They are snapshot in time,much like a CQC inspection.

3) Chart scores are based on my long term set up.I'm not a chartist.

4) Balance sheet scores-this year,any company where the goodwill constitutes 100% of the equity will get a score in red.50% an amber score.Lessons of the Scottish Play.Some sectors eg Telecoms,carry much higher debt levels than others but do so at better rates.

5) There's clearly an element of 'ceteris paribus', so DYOR as ever,but the sector score is my take on whether the sector offers good value.

SP, thanks for posting this. When you point out that telecoms carry large debts, but crucially at better rates, I wonder is this info is available on the sites you use, MarketWatch or investing.com? Tbh, accurately judging a companies debt profile is something I struggle with, so any hints or tips you could give would be great. 

[JMD]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'll hopefully be working through the miners next week.A lot haven't go their data up yet,but they and the telecoms are next.

I'm only doing gold miners mainly but post the ones you're after and I'll include them if the data is avaialable and then you can see them in the context of the wider sector.

Thank you SP, that's a very generous offer. I will reply tomorrow with a (v. small) list.

[Mapper]

3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Who will the scapegoat be?

 

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

In this country literally they’ll blame Brexit

Whatever happens you know who will end up paying for it.

It won't be the rich, they have the means to avoid paying.

It won't be the poor, they have nothing saved.

Yep, it'll be us. All the ones who've made an effort. Taxes, capital controls, bail-ins the list goes on. They'll come for it.

 

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I think it is related to options expiring this week. Looks like a lot of shares required to service calls. If people really are refusing to sell then the effective free float is very low to handle all this. Assuming the calls were sold naked.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME

Of course until they do sell and it crashes. The exit at the top is narrow. The circuit breaker kicking in just before close will have forced some to keep hold of their shares overnight.

Same thesis as last month.

[MrXxxx]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Japan is ideal for a value investor atm with good financials, valuations and yields.  A good chance of beating the index with some good old fashioned stock picking. Trouble is it's hard to access from an ISA.  Seems only Saxo Bank and my application to them was a total fail - a very poor performance so I ran away.  HK?  Better ISA broker access and plenty of materials type companies, although prices are a bit choppy atm.

IMO, naff all else out there atm from a value pov, apart from energy (although the monthlies are ok, the daily and weeklies are currently overbought).  See my past post lamenting the current state of the markets.

There are plenty of possible themes out there for some good talk but the prices aren't there yet (either overbought or correcting).

 

Agree `keep your powder dry` for when you need it/can use it to better effect, and at the moment with inflation rates the way they are you are not losing much keeping it in cash.

[Barnsey]

Alan Wan, 38, who owns 13 residential properties in Britain, launched classes in Hong Kong two years ago – at the height of anti-government protests in Hong Kong – aimed at potential investors in properties in and around Manchester.

So far, his "UK Property Owner Association" class has attracted around 1,500 students. Enrolment spiked in the second half of last year after Beijing imposed the national security law.

One of Wan's students, 30-year old Isla Kwok, who moved to Manchester in late January waiting to start a degree, is using the rental income she receives from a terraced house bought in 2019 to finance the cost of renting a smaller flat and mortgage payments.

She plans to re-mortgage her first property to buy a second one this year after getting a residence permit, as mortgage interest rates will be much lower.

"Once you've started your first property, it's much easier to create more income to ease the financial pressure of living here," Kwok said.

EVERYONE expecting a taper tantrum now, so is it inevitable? Or is there another way?

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Alan Wan, 38, who owns 13 residential properties in Britain, launched classes in Hong Kong two years ago – at the height of anti-government protests in Hong Kong – aimed at potential investors in properties in and around Manchester.

So far, his "UK Property Owner Association" class has attracted around 1,500 students. Enrolment spiked in the second half of last year after Beijing imposed the national security law.

One of Wan's students, 30-year old Isla Kwok, who moved to Manchester in late January waiting to start a degree, is using the rental income she receives from a terraced house bought in 2019 to finance the cost of renting a smaller flat and mortgage payments.

She plans to re-mortgage her first property to buy a second one this year after getting a residence permit, as mortgage interest rates will be much lower.

"Once you've started your first property, it's much easier to create more income to ease the financial pressure of living here," Kwok said.

Down with landlord scum! 👀

 

I mean, savvy investors 😂

 

These incoming Hong kongers are going to be about as popular as anally contracted AIDS

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Mapper said:

 

Whatever happens you know who will end up paying for it.

It won't be the rich, they have the means to avoid paying.

It won't be the poor, they have nothing saved.

Yep, it'll be us. All the ones who've made an effort. Taxes, capital controls, bail-ins the list goes on. They'll come for it.

 

Sorry I think you are wrong, the poor don't have anything to `tap`/tax, it will be those in the middle who earn/live within their means that will be shafted.

[Loki]

8 hours ago, wherebee said:

Who will the scapegoat be?

Kulaks. 

[Noallegiance]

47 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Alan Wan, 38, who owns 13 residential properties in Britain, launched classes in Hong Kong two years ago – at the height of anti-government protests in Hong Kong – aimed at potential investors in properties in and around Manchester.

So far, his "UK Property Owner Association" class has attracted around 1,500 students. Enrolment spiked in the second half of last year after Beijing imposed the national security law.

One of Wan's students, 30-year old Isla Kwok, who moved to Manchester in late January waiting to start a degree, is using the rental income she receives from a terraced house bought in 2019 to finance the cost of renting a smaller flat and mortgage payments.

She plans to re-mortgage her first property to buy a second one this year after getting a residence permit, as mortgage interest rates will be much lower.

"Once you've started your first property, it's much easier to create more income to ease the financial pressure of living here," Kwok said.

EVERYONE expecting a taper tantrum now, so is it inevitable? Or is there another way?

Did nobody tell them about s24?