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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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23 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Too big. And too gold ;)

If you're willing to drop down to mid-tier, I'd say Harmony is criminally undervalued. Then again, it's only relevant if we assume that value will ever matter again. Anyway, check out their latest report from the 23rd of Feb. 336% increase in net profit YoY, 58% reduction in net debt, declared divi. Must... Resist...
https://www.harmony.co.za/invest/company-announcements/2021/item/1206-harmony-reports-record-cash-flows-enhances-asset-base-through-its-growth-strategy-and-declares-an-interim-dividend

That's one of only a couple of NRs I could be bothered to read this year, the other one being about First Majestic and their $250mil lawsuit :) It takes such a caliber of news to get my interest these days ;)

I promised myself some more HMY at sub-$4, just gone in (originally in at $1.60 in December 2018, thanks to the good burghers of this thread).

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On 24/02/2021 at 16:26, sancho panza said:

I'll hopefully be working through the miners next week. A lot haven't go their data up yet,but they and the telecoms are next.

I'm only doing gold miners mainly but post the ones you're after and I'll include them if the data is available and then you can see them in the context of the wider sector.

SP, thank you again for you kind offer. I couldn't decide which ones, so i thought why not post my whole silver stocks portfolio!! Please don't be alarmed... I don't expect you to do them all. And as you say, the value will be in seeing some of my stocks in the context of your overall gold/silver PM miner SCS's. So apologies in advance - But i really couldn't decide which ones to list in regard to making the decision as to which ones to buy more of. You see, I initially bought these ones because they kept being mentioned favorably, in various forums (including of course here), articles, in terms of reserves, extraction costs, management, financials, etc.  

If anyone might be interested - These miners are my intended holds until 2026+, my main decision/criteria is now to either buy more of same ones, or to replace with better. I did a comparison last August, against the slvp/silj funds over 1/5 year periods, and i beat each for both periods, by between approx. 15-30% respectively. Anyway i've prattled on enough. Hope i haven't broken any house rules by posting this.   

 

Silvies--- Fortuna Silver, Mag Silver, SilverCrest Metals, Silvercorp, SSRM, Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, Fresnillo, Pan American Silver

Silver Juniors--- Santacruz, Impact Minerals, Defiance Silver, Aurcana, Impact Silver, Kootenay Silver, Silver Mines ltd, Excellon Resources, Skeena Resources, Adriatic Metals, Alexco Resource, Bear Creek Mining, Americas Gold Silver

...oh, and a silver miner recommended to me by Errol yesterday!, Honey Badger Silver (be rude not to include it)

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Quote

 

Close-Only Mode Lifted on 25 CFD Stocks


The close-only mode for the following 25 CFD stocks has been lifted and they are now available for purchasing.


1. Apple
2. Microsoft
3. Amazon
4. Alphabet
5. Facebook
6. NVIDIA
7. PayPal
8. Intel
9. Netflix
10. Comcast
11. Adobe
12. Broadcom
13. Cisco
14. PepsiCo
15. Texas Instruments
16. Qualcomm
17. Costco
18. T-Mobile
19. Amgen
20. Starbucks
21. Charter Communications
22. Applied Materials
23. Intuit
24. Advanced Micro Devices
25. Micron Technology

 

From Trading 212 notification.

Hmmmm...what do they know?
 

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11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Hmmmm...what do they know?

the SEC are gonna investigate Musk for tweeting about doggy coin...

NASDAQ is currently shitting the bed and taking other markets with it....

Although some gurus on Twatter are saying GAMESTOP has broken the markets again...

funny I was just gonna start a 'diamond hands thread' but it'll probably be like tumbleweed in there xD

 

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5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

:D People talking about Gamestop when the 10yr spikes 10% in a day.

Aye but I think Nasdaq smelt it before the bond spike....apparently there was fuck all interest in an auction but that might just be Tyler exaggerating again...

 

EvFzfxxWgA4UMzU.jpeg

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14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Something is breaking. Decision time, Jerome...

Lets be honest, the only decision that's he's going to be making is what level of "Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr" to set the printer at.

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ALGOS bought the dip again, panic over :ph34r:

cunt bollock bastards :wanker: they just spiked Nasdaq up only to slam the bastard down.......I can smell what they're doing but my concentration is a bit unreliable :S

think I need some diamond hands, doggy style xD

 

doggie diamond hands.jpg

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A tremendous # on the lung

Looking at Lloyds Bank latest results, I note they have a loan to deposit ratio of 98% - roughly about 440billion of each.

I thought banks lent out far more than they took in deposits? What am I missing? 

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Bricks & Mortar

IBTL, (an ETF based on 20 year US treasuries, and considered by some on these pages as a possible place to shelter a BK event)...

Well, it's looking pretty attractive today, at 366p.   Back in March, it topped out at 519p, and that's where I'll be hoping it goes back to in a BK event.

 

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2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

From ZH here via The Telegraph - Bill Ackman is also worried about early inflation...

The Telegraph reports that the fund manager has identified a surprise rise in interest rates as the next big risk for markets.

"We will see a spike in inflation as early as the middle of the year," Ackman said.

"It is already starting to happen. At some point if rates move enough than it becomes a market risk event."

Ackman said he had bought "instruments that pay off in a large way in the event of a surprising move in rates".

"There is a finite amount of money we can lose which is not material to the fund and if we are right on rates then we make a lot of money," he added. "We want to protect ourselves against huge market-moving events. We look to buy insurance against disaster."

The 'disaster' he sees coming is due to Biden's huge $1.9 trillion stimulus package sowing the seeds of a surge in inflationary pressures.

“That is happening at a time when rates are zero, coupled with the psychological effects of being locked up for a year. That combination will lead to a lot of demand in the economy. Supply won't be able to meet that demand," he said.

Specifically, Ackman warns that a continued rise in inflation would spell more pain for investors in tech and high-growth companies.

“In order to justify the high price of high-flying tech companies you need to have enormous continued growth and eventually have them generate profits," he said.

"The current level of interest rates mean that investors are willing to wait a long time for companies to generate lots of money. A move [higher] in interest rates is a big threat to growth companies."

Ackman remains long stocks albeit in what he calls "more predictable" businesses - so not ultra-growth momo darlings - just as he did through his last massive (and successful) hedging program and we suspect, unlike last time when he claimed "I hope we lose money on this latest hedge", this time, given his penchant for less-hyper-growth stocks and his comments on the asymmetric nature of the hedge payoff if the future doesn't turn out in the panglossian manner it is priced for, he may be looking to profit both ways.

Pershing Square has a listing on the LSE if anyone wants to invest in his fund.

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

From Trading 212 notification.

Hmmmm...what do they know?
 

The people who were long have been selling as the share prices fall. Trading 212 have successfully risk managed their exposure and made money. Now they want more people to go long and hopefully if the stocks continue falling they’ll make bank.

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37 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Looking at Lloyds Bank latest results, I note they have a loan to deposit ratio of 98% - roughly about 440billion of each.

I thought banks lent out far more than they took in deposits? What am I missing? 

No. They need to balance the books. They lend out far more than they hold as shareholders equity if that’s what you were thinking?

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9 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

IBTL, (an ETF based on 20 year US treasuries, and considered by some on these pages as a possible place to shelter a BK event)...

Well, it's looking pretty attractive today, at 366p.   Back in March, it topped out at 519p, and that's where I'll be hoping it goes back to in a BK event.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Could be very good timing, TLT might have bottomed today.

IBTL looks like an interesting fund and a good way of getting exposure to treasury bonds. Would you mind giving a little bit of background to your thinking? (Stupid question - I am learning - what is TLT ?) .....

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Yadda yadda yadda
35 minutes ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Looking at Lloyds Bank latest results, I note they have a loan to deposit ratio of 98% - roughly about 440billion of each.

I thought banks lent out far more than they took in deposits? What am I missing? 

£100 comes in, £98 is lent out to the economy. That £98 ends up back in the bank(ing system). They lend out another £96. That comes back and they lend out £94. Etc. So they lend out 98% (or whatever high percentage) of what comes in but it is recycled and multiplied through the economy. You can see how this is a mechanism through which velocity leads to inflation.

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Bobthebuilder
2 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

No. They need to balance the books.

That's interesting. Last time I bought any Lloyds shares they had £99 lent out to £1 on deposit.

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5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

£100 comes in, £98 is lent out to the economy. That £98 ends up back in the bank(ing system). They lend out another £96. That comes back and they lend out £94. Etc. So they lend out 98% (or whatever high percentage) of what comes in but it is recycled and multiplied through the economy. You can see how this is a mechanism through which velocity leads to inflation.

This is incorrect. The banks create deposits when they issue loans. Issuing loans creates the money supply.

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14 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The people who were long have been selling as the share prices fall. Trading 212 have successfully risk managed their exposure and made money. Now they want more people to go long and hopefully if the stocks continue falling they’ll make bank.

Good luck to them! I withdrew the vast majority of my 'play' funds from T212 CFD yesterday.  I am not one of the 70 odd percent that lose money, I came in at just over breakeven so a year and a bit of dabbling cost me nothing and made me £500.  I'm happy with that considering it was just punts and holding CFDs for longer than ideally they would be held.

Work is picking up and I don't have the time or patience any more.  

(Expect silver to rally hard in the next week or so. xD)

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1 hour ago, A tremendous # on the lung said:

Looking at Lloyds Bank latest results, I note they have a loan to deposit ratio of 98% - roughly about 440billion of each.

I thought banks lent out far more than they took in deposits? What am I missing? 

That's actually a tad high. You'd usually expect 80-something.

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Here's some anecdata for the thread. The only work I've been offered in the last six months has been at day rates that had been cut in half, so I didn't work. Since the weekend's announcement, my phone has been ringing off the hook - I have four interviews booked in, all at rates just slightly below per-Covid rates (actually, a little higher in USD terms) - and there are more jobs on the boards every time I check.

The determining factor if I get offered more than one gig is going to be who bids highest.

These are all 6 to 12 month remote contracts, whereas previously I'd have been in an office in the City or Canary Wharf.

Inflationary? Tick. Commercial property fucked? Tick.

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

 

IBTL looks like an interesting fund and a good way of getting exposure to treasury bonds. Would you mind giving a little bit of background to your thinking? (Stupid question - I am learning - what is TLT ?) .....

TLT is about the same as IBTL.  An ETF based on US treasury bonds.  But TLT isUS-based and doesn't have a KID.   IBTL is a UK available equivalent.

Afraid I'm also inexperienced with bonds.  My thinking goes
1.  TLT mentioned years ago, on these pages, as a possible BK safe haven.
2.  When the EU shut down US based ETF's, someone on these pages mentioned IBTL as an alternative.
3.  I've kept an eye on it since, and saw what it did in March crash, which I hope it'd repeat in a BK.

 

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reformed nice guy

To add another anecdote

Spoke to a friend that is involved with reviewing grant applications for the governments SMART scheme:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/smart-innovation-funding-for-game-changing-ideas-from-business

He told me they are pumping out a lot of money. You could probably do your application in crayon + text speak and get funding

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At this point in the evening (UK) I'd like to use my undeniable knowledge about financial markets to bring to everyone's attention that, technically speaking, lots of things seem to be taking a shit.

Jaw-boning only last 24 hours now, does it?

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