Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[No One]

18 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

To add another anecdote

Spoke to a friend that is involved with reviewing grant applications for the governments SMART scheme:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/smart-innovation-funding-for-game-changing-ideas-from-business

He told me they are pumping out a lot of money. You could probably do your application in crayon + text speak and get funding

That would be great except I dont have an idea.

[Loki]

18 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

To add another anecdote

Spoke to a friend that is involved with reviewing grant applications for the governments SMART scheme:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/smart-innovation-funding-for-game-changing-ideas-from-business

He told me they are pumping out a lot of money. You could probably do your application in crayon + text speak and get funding

Quote

An overview of the grants that organisations can get to carry out ambitious, disruptive R&D projects with a high potential for commercial success.

I suppose re-opening the economy and letting the pandemic that never was become a memory is too obvious.

[harp]

4 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Nope. Handing HK over without a fight was a disgrace. A necessary disgrace but vile none the less. They're our people, they and their ancestors have contributed massively to this country and the least we can do is offer them an escape route from totalitarianism. 

Yep. But this cuntry would rather take in Romaniam gypsies and boat people because it's what the 'left' expect, and demand.

 

[DurhamBorn]

6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

I wish this were the case with Silver Lake Resources (which confusingly is actually a gold play), I’m well down on them having been averaging in on the dips for months. If we do get a gold spike I’m getting out of this one (which probably means it’s a great time to buy).

 

@DurhamBorn do you have a currency preferences once 86 is hit? GBP & AUD both running hot recently, should we be moving some to SGP for example? Singapore is widely touted as the new HK as an eastern financial markets hub.

CAD and the Dollar,but im not sure yet on allocation,as i prefer tobacco etc as sterling falling protection.

[AWW]

34 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

To add another anecdote

Spoke to a friend that is involved with reviewing grant applications for the governments SMART scheme:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/smart-innovation-funding-for-game-changing-ideas-from-business

He told me they are pumping out a lot of money. You could probably do your application in crayon + text speak and get funding

It's a miracle that anyone with the sort of personality that makes a successful entrepreneur ever gets to the end of the application process. I started an application for this scheme not too long ago and decided that it's a fantastic example of how the government just doesn't understand entrepreneurs and small business.

Example: "how you will consider equality, diversity and inclusion implications in the development and design of your innovation (for example unintended exclusion of minority groups)"

[Jesus Wept]

6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

TLT is a fund of long duration treasuries, IBTL is close cousin. I do not know much about the bond market, but I can see that yields are very overbought, and TLT is very oversold. Yields broke 1.5 today, and various assets are having a tizz about it. It could go on, but this is where the Fed needs to signal it's next move. I'm not into bonds, but I bought gold today based on what I saw in the bond market. Hope this helps, but dyodd as ever.

 

22 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

...........technically speaking, lots of things seem to be taking a shit.

 

I am sure the first time I heard the term “inflection point” .... it was @DurhamBorntalking about a year ago.....

How do we take advantage of this? 
 

 

[AWW]

This is a fascinating chart. Check out the capital flows into bonds vs equities over the past decade.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, kibuc said:

It touches on what I'm currently thinking about. If the predicted rise in interest rates to, say, 3% comes as a reaction to inflation running 4-5%, then it's still a favourable scenarion for gold. Is 4-5% this Summer anything more than a pipe dream? I really don't know, in UK there seems to be a lot of people just waiting for the economy to reopen so they can start making up for a lost year, a real coiled spring, but there are also dead people walking who are unemployed in everything but name, they just don't know it yet. I imagine it must be similar across the pond.

My road map says they need inflation at around 3% above rates for the whole cycle.Of course that wont be linear,but i expect 3% inflation in the UK by late summer.If the Fed starts a tightening cycle around the same time UK is in a massive fiscal hole.BOE will have to stop printing.

[Noallegiance]

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

 

@DurhamBorn How do we take advantage of this? 

Print goddamnit! Print!

[Noallegiance]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

This is a fascinating chart. Check out the capital flows into bonds vs equities over the past decade.

Yeah but JPowell said there's no bubbles and they're, like, totally hard to see until they pop dontchaknow.

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My road map says they need inflation at around 3% above rates for the whole cycle.Of course that wont be linear,but i expect 3% inflation in the UK by late summer.If the Fed starts a tightening cycle around the same time UK is in a massive fiscal hole.BOE will have to stop printing.

Imagine that this year.

Yay! We're out of lockd......oh.

[Lightscribe]

It can only end well...

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

To add another anecdote

Spoke to a friend that is involved with reviewing grant applications for the governments SMART scheme:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/smart-innovation-funding-for-game-changing-ideas-from-business

He told me they are pumping out a lot of money. You could probably do your application in crayon + text speak and get funding

I am seeing grant monies flying about all over the place as part of my day job. Earning some decent fees because of it but it is somewhat terrifying to witness first hand.

It's like having box seats for a play entitled "gadzooks!, 'tis the endeth of fiat"

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Nope. Handing HK over without a fight was a disgrace. A necessary disgrace but vile none the less. They're our people, they and their ancestors have contributed massively to this country and the least we can do is offer them an escape route from totalitarianism. 

This.

HKers will improve, overall, the UK.  If there was no immigration to date, I could make an argument against Hkers, but as the country has fucked itself demographically anyway, you might as well bring in a load who will vote against socialism and wokeism, cannot be accused of racism, and generally follow the rules and pay taxes.

Plus - I suspect the landlord class is going to get raped in the next decade by whichever government wins power.  This could be sucking in the geese for plucking.

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

This.

HKers will improve, overall, the UK.  If there was no immigration to date, I could make an argument against Hkers, but as the country has fucked itself demographically anyway, you might as well bring in a load who will vote against socialism and wokeism, cannot be accused of racism, and generally follow the rules and pay taxes.

Plus - I suspect the landlord class is going to get raped in the next decade by whichever government wins power.  This could be sucking in the geese for plucking.

Interesting that you reckon it's finally here the raping of the landlord class, hope so.

[Hancock]

57 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.BOE will have to stop printing.

That will be a beautiful day.

[sancho panza]

On 24/02/2021 at 19:31, Cattle Prod said:

Something I've been watching: the ratio of XLE to the underlying @sancho panza. It's been lagging, as we discussed. But the pattern of it has been in something of a bull wedge (down means XLE lags the oil price). XLE has led price since the start of Feb, and broken out of the wedge now. It doesn't necessarily mean that XLE (and our other favourite big oilies) will continue catching up to price, it could also mean that they will fall less when prices do. This might also be nothing, I'm not a great fan of looking for patterns in ratios. We'll see. Just a thought.

Edit:

It's using Brent not WTI as the underlying, which would be more accurate, but the bloody spike low makes a mess of the charts.

I'm intrigued by ratio's.They do provide an excellent long term timing method using monthlies in the gold silver but you only really get a clear signal once a decade in that one.

Which website are you using?is it trading view?I'd love to ahev a play with those.

Having said that,I jsut checked XLE and Brent over the shorter timeframe and the correlation  is impressive.

from the oct 30 bottom

 

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Plus - I suspect the landlord class is going to get raped in the next decade by whichever government wins power. 

HK'ers are Chinese they're about as British as Malaysians, but i'm all for their skinny women under 40 coming here. 

The landlord class have bought and paid for many of their houses in the last 25 years, they will continue fucking us.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

skinny women under 40 coming here.

Wtf i love immigration now

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

HK'ers are Chinese they're about as British as Malaysians, but i'm all for their skinny women under 40 coming here. 

The landlord class have bought and paid for many of their houses in the last 25 years, they will continue fucking us.

Hk girls won't touch your knob with someone elses hands unless you have a big bank balance and a beemer on the drive.  Material focused doesn't even begin to cover it.

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Hk girls won't touch your knob with someone elses hands unless you have a big bank balance and a beemer on the drive.  Material focused doesn't even begin to cover it.

Ahh but will they be impressed with my crypto funny money, my rare lego sets and my antique sterling silver (below spot) fruit bowls, tankards and candle sticks?

 

[Hancock]

7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Hk girls won't touch your knob with someone elses hands unless you have a big bank balance and a beemer on the drive.  Material focused doesn't even begin to cover it.

Ive a big bank balance, and a Derv Astra ... if that doesnt get them moist then nowt will.

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, thanks for posting this. When you point out that telecoms carry large debts, but crucially at better rates, I wonder is this info is available on the sites you use, MarketWatch or investing.com? Tbh, accurately judging a companies debt profile is something I struggle with, so any hints or tips you could give would be great. 

details are on pages like this.The 2056 3% bond for E1bn is the stuff of basement dweller legend.

https://investors.vodafone.com/debt-investors/bonds-outstanding-eu-and-us

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Oil etc is running faster than id thought and if it keeps going it will push us back into recession,probably 6 months after lockdown ends,im loathe to do a sell wait buy back ,but im leaning more and more to that.

Just speaking thoughts to the thread to help formulate them.

 

That's the key thing we need to identify is what is the price of the black stuff that sends everything t1ts up like the last three times.

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Monetary base usually drives the dollar and oil in tandem,but if the Fed stops QE and treasuries fall oil might run even after a dollar turn as capital flows out of bonds and growth into inflation areas.

We need to do a lot of work on this because i dont want to be holding the baby,but at the same time i dont want to jump out before another 35%+ increase in out sectors on top of the big gains already.

I think you've exactly descrubed the conundrum here.I'm maybe a bit to oil focused but I feel tehre's more to run.Saem with UST yields.

 

10 hours ago, kibuc said:

I saw it this morning and I thought it would put quite a spanner in the works of his metals forecast. Maybe I'm seeing things exactly opposite to how I should see them, but surely higher rates should be a big headwind for PMs?

However, David sticks to his prediction of $2500 at the same time, so I reckon he must be seeing real rates actually heading lower, so inflation overshooting that 3% rates target? I'm super dumb about all this.

Lyn Alden was talking about real rates being the main mover behind the yellow stuff a while back.I'll see if I can dig out the chart but it was a compelling theisis the way she presented it.If yields move up but inflation mvoes furhter then it's game on.

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

 

Silvies--- Fortuna Silver, Mag Silver, SilverCrest Metals, Silvercorp, SSRM, Endeavour Silver, First Majestic, Fresnillo, Pan American Silver

Silver Juniors--- Santacruz, Impact Minerals, Defiance Silver, Aurcana, Impact Silver, Kootenay Silver, Silver Mines ltd, Excellon Resources, Skeena Resources, Adriatic Metals, Alexco Resource, Bear Creek Mining, Americas Gold Silver

...oh, and a silver miner recommended to me by Errol yesterday!, Honey Badger Silver (be rude not to include it)

I'll have a butcher's.coma scores only work with producers ie companies with long term revenues imho.

 

3 hours ago, AWW said:

Here's some anecdata for the thread. The only work I've been offered in the last six months has been at day rates that had been cut in half, so I didn't work. Since the weekend's announcement, my phone has been ringing off the hook - I have four interviews booked in, all at rates just slightly below per-Covid rates (actually, a little higher in USD terms) - and there are more jobs on the boards every time I check.

The determining factor if I get offered more than one gig is going to be who bids highest.

These are all 6 to 12 month remote contracts, whereas previously I'd have been in an office in the City or Canary Wharf.

Inflationary? Tick. Commercial property fucked? Tick.

Interesting I was reading this the other day.

Lloydfs profits down 78% and it's reducing office space by 20% next year.Coloquially known as 'the start'.

Hard to see CRE losses not kicking off the next UK banking crisis that noone sees coming.

[Barnsey]

 

[geordie_lurch]

8 hours ago, Hancock said:

Ive a big bank balance, and a Derv Astra ... if that doesnt get them moist then nowt will.

 

8 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Ahh but will they be impressed with my crypto funny money, my rare lego sets and my antique sterling silver (below spot) fruit bowls, tankards and candle sticks?

 

Out of reps but