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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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48 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

The FRED website has retired a bunch of money supply curves, funny timing. Just when the Fed needs to start messing about with them.

Yup but the non-seasonally adjusted or seasonly adjusted charts doesn’t look any better :)

 

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UST bond auction did not go well?  IBTL unconfirmed signs of life on the daily but IMO monthly needs further falls to clear.  Equity drama would help  More downside in UST prices, higher rates, pop, then reversal, lower rates, higher DXY?

 

 

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geordie_lurch

Just had a long overdue catch up with a mate who is in the bathrooms trade - manufacturing and fitting and got onto inflation and he said everything is up minimum 4% but average 7% with some harder to get 15% or more. He also said he still has more work than him and his team can cope with too - never been busier than these last 12 months!

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12 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Just had a long overdue catch up with a mate who is in the bathrooms trade - manufacturing and fitting and got onto inflation and he said everything is up minimum 4% but average 7% with some harder to get 15% or more. He also said he still has more work than him and his team can cope with too - never been busier than these last 12 months!

All steel items we use (racking, electrical trunking etc) has gone up by 20% from our suppliers

If you can get it 

( I say our, I'm still self employed. The firm i do the most work for at present)

Edit: also @geordie_lurchmy manager says he knows someone who ships bathroom stuff from China and containers have gone from $1500 to $15000. Sounds excessive to me but that's what i was told. Can't guarantee accuracy though maybe he misheard

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13 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

At this point in the evening (UK) I'd like to use my undeniable knowledge about financial markets to bring to everyone's attention that, technically speaking, lots of things seem to be taking a shit.

Jaw-boning only last 24 hours now, does it?

The taking a shit is progressing to  dysentery this morningxD

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ThoughtCriminal

The best part of the whole green hysteria is that we currently have one of the lowest levels of Co2 in the history of the planet. 

 

We're going to destroy ourselves for nothing. 

 

Parallels with covid are noticeable. 

 

Never fails to make me smile. 

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16 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Get ready for more money to flow into property, gold for the masses. Not condoning, but a realistic expectation.

 

He is not targeting pensioners as they are no longer adding to their pot.

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3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

He is not targeting pensioners as they are no longer adding to their pot.

Agreed, stupid title, "future pensioners". Seems like an unachievable limit for many but inflation will bring many within reach.

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21 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Get ready for more money to flow into property, gold for the masses. Not condoning, but a realistic expectation.

 

Chicken feed.  Presumably not applicable to judges, doctors, etc.....again!

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Just now, Harley said:

Chicken feed.  Presumably not applicable to judges, doctors, etc.....again!

£250mln is a couple of bungs to Tory sponsors and pub landlords for PPE.

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Talking Monkey
4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed, stupid title, "future pensioners"

That's yet another ladder pulled up for the young, once that lifetime limit is frozen for a few years it might stay there for a lot longer

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Just now, Harley said:

Chicken feed.  Presumably not applicable to judges, doctors, etc.....again!

If inflation and a BK does hit equities, more people will look at property as an accessible hard asset, especially if flats are on sale. If rents are rising this could make BTL attractive again despite tax benefits being reduced. Most people aren't looking at precious metals.

Again, I don't condone this, just trying to figure out where money will flow next.

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Just now, Talking Monkey said:

That's yet another ladder pulled up for the young, once that lifetime limit is frozen for a few years it might stay there for a lot longer

Yes but to be fair £1 million should be enough to retire on.

Just need to tax property wealth, but to do so will show that it doesn't actually exist for most.

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6 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Yes but to be fair £1 million should be enough to retire on.

Just need to tax property wealth, but to do so will show that it doesn't actually exist for most.

Assuming a freakishly constant 2.5% inflation rate, if left frozen that's £300k in today's money for a young employee starting out. Abstract example in many aspects but if long term inflation exceeds this...

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5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Assuming a freakishly constant 2.5% inflation rate, if left frozen that's £300k in today's money for a young employee starting out. Abstract example in many aspects but if long term inflation exceeds this...

Whatever the case maybe the richer people in society are going to have to be contributing more, as the working and middle class are skint paying for their overpriced slave boxes ..... the 1%ers had a hell of a run for 4 decades.

Inevitably it will be income as opposed to assets that gets taxed.

IMHO they're announcing this so they can then freeze the basic tax threshold at 12.5k for several years ... as Harley states the money raised from this is chicken feed.

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Fully Detached
1 minute ago, Loki said:

Big kahuna

Believed to be a bust, possibly deflationary, later this year

Ah, thanks - I figured it was a bust and not a Burger King but couldn't for the life of me work it out :) 

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20 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Could someone tell me what BK is please?

Its what a girl from Sheffield told me in a B+B in Hornby Road Blackpool,"oh thats a BK"

I thought, i never expected her to know that a huge BK ,a massive deflationary bust, where assets fall huge percentages would be a big possibility once the Fed started to tighten policy on a hugely leveraged economy ;)

It might of been Doncaster she was from.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its what a girl from Sheffield told me in a B+B in Hornby Road Blackpool,"oh thats a BK"

I thought, i never expected her to know that a huge BK ,a massive deflationary bust, where assets fall huge percentages would be a big possibility once the Fed started to tighten policy on a hugely leveraged economy ;)

It might of been Doncaster she was from.

mate, we've all suffered from a massive deflation when faced with a hot bird once in a while.  Blue pills and try again.

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9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its what a girl from Sheffield told me in a B+B in Hornby Road Blackpool,"oh thats a BK"

I thought, i never expected her to know that a huge BK ,a massive deflationary bust, where assets fall huge percentages would be a big possibility once the Fed started to tighten policy on a hugely leveraged economy ;)

It might of been Doncaster she was from.

Could’ve been hungry for a Burger King? Which if true would’ve been better than if your efforts had made her long for a Wimpy Burger..

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