Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

mate, we've all suffered from a massive deflation when faced with a hot bird once in a while.  Blue pills and try again.

I liked the jellies better,they worked in 10 minutes instead of an hour so i could decide at the last minute 

Market shaking out weak hands today,very nice.Doesnt want people bagging the profits.CBs and governments are in a pincer move now.They have huge structural deficits,but CBs cant engage much longer.I expect the CBs will have to act on the short end soon and that will mean more and more government debt moves down the curve.Liquidity down the curve means a transfer to the private sector,mainly reflation areas.CBs have no choice now to allow the long end to stay higher and that will force down growth stocks values.

 

 

[geordie_lurch]

Jim Rickards is going all in with The Great Reset being their plan alongside the forced implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency on us all like I have been trying to bring up where I think this is all heading in this thread...
Emphasis mine

Quote

Now, the euro (along with the Chinese yuan) is moving quickly to become a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). A CBDC combines a traditional currency with the blockchain technology of a cryptocurrency.

It’s an important move in the direction of eliminating cash and forcing users into a 100% digital system using credit cards, debit cards, and smartphone apps.

Why are China and Europe so focused on eliminating cash?

Use It or Lose It

I’ve said all along that you cannot put negative interest rates on consumers until you eliminate cash. Otherwise, savers would just withdraw cash from the banks and stuff it in mattresses to avoid the negative rates. Implicitly, the European Central Bank (ECB) seems to agree.

One of the ECB Board members says that negative rates (really confiscation) will be applied as a “penalty” against “hoarding” cash. In plain English, that means they will create digital money, force you to spend it, and if you don’t spend it, they will take it away as a “negative rate.”

...

Once the cattle (that’s us) have been herded into the digital slaughterhouse, we will be told to “use it or lose it” when it comes to our own money. In other words, either we spend the money, or the government will take it away.

Of course, the spending can be channelled into politically correct causes by excluding unpopular vendors such as gun dealers or conservative social media platforms from the payment system. This represents total domination of human behavior through world money + digital currencies + confiscation.

 

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-reset-is-here/

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Jim Rickards is going all in with The Great Reset being their plan and the implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-reset-is-here/

Goodbye freedom. 

 

I think this alludes to what DB said comes AFTER we're all (hopefully) stinking rich by 2030: dystopian hellscape 

[Hancock]

Haldane comments -

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/26/post-lockdown-demand-may-spark-inflation-surge-warns-haldane/

[Fully Detached]

14 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Jim Rickards is going all in with The Great Reset being their plan alongside the forced implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency on us all like I have been bringing up in this thread...

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-reset-is-here/

Exactly what I was just discussing with the Mrs about 10 minutes before seeing your post. Much rolling of eyes. I am going to go and have another go now.

[Barnsey]

7 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Haldane comments -

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/26/post-lockdown-demand-may-spark-inflation-surge-warns-haldane/

Maybe a taper tantrum is on the way, but by heck they'll have to loosen up again fast if this is just a pent up demand flurry amongst a high deflationary unemployment rate. Interesting times.

[leonardratso]

lloyds changed some T+Cs, some are brexit i suppose, some might be cost savings, some are probably just to hide shit;

Section 12 - Corporate actions

• We will no longer provide copies of annual reports, accounts or other information issued to shareholders, securities holders or unit holders.

• If a corporate action happens in relation to investments held in your account we will use reasonable endeavours to tell you about any rights attached to your investments, unless we consider it impractical to do so.

Section 15 - Complaints and compensation

• We have removed the wording that refers to the European Commission’s Online Dispute Resolution website as this is no longer relevant. We will investigate any complaint in accordance with the regulatory requirements. If we cannot resolve your complaint to your satisfaction, you may have a right to complain directly to the Financial Ombudsman Service or take civil action.

Section 17 - Our liability, governing law, regulation and tax reporting

• We may need you to give us further information, documents or certifications about your identity, tax residence and US Citizenship status.

[leonardratso]

2 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Exactly what I was just discussing with the Mrs about 10 minutes before seeing your post. Much rolling of eyes. I am going to go and have another go now.

is she drunk? or orgasmic - with this eye rolling?

Might be a squint.

[Sugarlips]

15 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Jim Rickards is going all in with The Great Reset being their plan alongside the forced implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency on us all like I have been bringing up in this thread... Emphasis mine

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-reset-is-here/

Martin Armstrong is in agreement with all of that that it’s all planned and that CoVID is just to get everyone used to complying and not traveling so they can impose climate related controls on us all next before the 2030 WEF manifestos are enacted.

Both Martin and Jim openly confirm that they are consultants to various governments so should have pretty reasonable insights into where the agenda is headed

[Fully Detached]

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

is she drunk? or orgasmic - with this eye rolling?

It's hard to tell, especially when she starts swearing.

[Heart's Ease]

27 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Jim Rickards is going all in with The Great Reset being their plan alongside the forced implementation of Central Bank Digital Currency on us all like I have been trying to bring up where I think this is all heading in this thread...
Emphasis mine

https://dailyreckoning.com/the-great-reset-is-here/

Interesting. Jim Rickards has been unsupportive of bitcoin since the get go. Watched a presentation he gave maybe a year ago where he thought bitcoin's true value was $200-300 and would only be used by criminals. I wonder where he sees Bitcoins role in the future. 

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

£250mln is a couple of bungs to Tory sponsors and pub landlords for PPE.

Will put a huge dent in the £2Trillion I'm sure.

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Assuming a freakishly constant 2.5% inflation rate, if left frozen that's £300k in today's money for a young employee starting out. Abstract example in many aspects but if long term inflation exceeds this...

The first rule of this thread can not be emphasised more and that is the preservation of wealth by having a wide spread in the right sectors to front run inflation. Any growth on your investments that this thread discusses must be seen as a bonus and not a get rich quick .

 

With the passage of time it is clear now that in 2008 it was the banks that went bust. In 2020 it is governments world wide that are going bust. The QE we are now seeing is their bailout.

[geordie_lurch]

17 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

With the passage of time it is clear now that in 2008 it was the banks that went bust. In 2020 it is governments world wide that are going bust. The QE we are now seeing is their bailout.

What a great line @Agent ZigZag

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

The first rule of this thread can not be emphasised more and that is the preservation of wealth by having a wide spread in the right sectors to front run inflation. Any growth on your investments that this thread discusses must be seen as a bonus and not a get rich quick .

 

With the passage of time it is clear now that in 2008 it was the banks that went bust. In 2020 it is governments world wide that are going bust. The QE we are now seeing is their bailout.

Thats right and its what most are missing.This is fiscal printing,its not mostly going through the clearing system.For the theft of wealth its about a zillion times worse than bailing out banks,and that was shocking enough.

An example would be two ex girlfriends of mine.

Girlfriend A has now 3 kids and doesnt work.She has one of them down as disabled.She gets £2300 a month.The printing now is going direct to her to consume without doing any work.Everything she consumes then is someone elses labour or saved labour.Thats all saving are ,saved labour,your own or someone elses.

Girlfriend B had and still has a good job,circa £36k a year here in the North east.During the Blair/Brown years she ran up £84k of credit card debts and loans mostly on cars and holidays etc.She went bankrupt.Still has her good income though.So she consumed other peoples labour and saved labour but it was the banks who helped her steal it and it was the banks being bailed out.

So what is the difference?

A lot from a macro angle.

Girlfriend B and the banks were bailed out on PAST consumption,they were made whole.Deflationary.

Girlfriend A is now being bailed out on PRESENT and FUTURE spending.Inflationary.

B had already consumed,A is going to consume.

[headrow]

Just sold all my RSA Insurance as i was waiting to see if they paid a dividend (they didn't) but the takeover is going through and i can't be arsed to wait , sold up and put the 12k straight in IBTL. Rode this gravy train once , i want to ride it again.

[headrow]

5 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

People quote some absurd amounts of money needed to retire on.

People seem to forget, when you get old you spend very little. Basic stuff can be bought second hand, food is cheap, if you are lucky enough to own your own place, a couple of hundred quid aweek is fine.

I'm retired, own a small house, no mortgage. I get by fine and dandy on £210 a week. Bills and food are around £450 a month, leaves £100 a week to do what ever with.

I'm 53 and quit work 5 years ago. I live on the 1k a month rent money , easily doable and i have a safety net of 25k a year income from my isa which allows me to sleep very easily . I pay very little tax and just sit around most days getting stoned and pottering around my garden/workshop before i go back indoors and get pissed. I'm totally unemployable now but i'd rather be dead than go back to work. I have a proper stress free life that i wouldn't swap for anything.

[feed]

15 minutes ago, headrow said:

I'm 53 and quit work 5 years ago. I live on the 1k a month rent money , easily doable and i have a safety net of 25k a year income from my isa which allows me to sleep very easily . I pay very little tax and just sit around most days getting stoned and pottering around my garden/workshop before i go back indoors and get pissed. I'm totally unemployable now but i'd rather be dead than go back to work. I have a proper stress free life that i wouldn't swap for anything.

If you have an ISA that pays you £25k a year, you clearly did something right.  But it shouldn’t really be much of a surprise that you can sleep easy with a post tax income of £25k, that’s equivalent to a £31.5k or so salary. 
 

[Barnsey]

 

 

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, PrincessDrac said:

People quote some absurd amounts of money needed to retire on.

People seem to forget, when you get old you spend very little. Basic stuff can be bought second hand, food is cheap, if you are lucky enough to own your own place, a couple of hundred quid aweek is fine.

I'm retired, own a small house, no mortgage. I get by fine and dandy on £210 a week. Bills and food are around £450 a month, leaves £100 a week to do what ever with.

Yeah, if it wasn't for the hookers and coke I'd be the same.

 

I spend f all and live well, so it boggles my mind when I see people saying they'd have to keep working if they "only" won a million on the lottery. 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The best part of the whole green hysteria is that we currently have one of the lowest levels of Co2 in the history of the planet.

We're going to destroy ourselves for nothing. 

 

Parallels with covid are noticeable. 

 

Never fails to make me smile. 

So basically,the panicdemic was the warm up act?

3 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Could someone tell me what BK is please?

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

So basically,the panicdemic was the warm up act?

 

Absolutely. 

 

Anyone who still thinks any of this was about a virus is off their effing rocker. 

 

I won't derail the thread so just watch the laughable bullshit that was coming from China early last year. Then ask yourself why it wasn't replicated ANYWHERE else on the planet. 

 

Then you have to ask what it's purpose was. I think we now know. 

 

 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats right and its what most are missing.This is fiscal printing,its not mostly going through the clearing system.For the theft of wealth its about a zillion times worse than bailing out banks,and that was shocking enough.

An example would be two ex girlfriends of mine.

Girlfriend A has now 3 kids and doesnt work.She has one of them down as disabled.She gets £2300 a month.The printing now is going direct to her to consume without doing any work.Everything she consumes then is someone elses labour or saved labour.Thats all saving are ,saved labour,your own or someone elses.

Girlfriend B had and still has a good job,circa £36k a year here in the North east.During the Blair/Brown years she ran up £84k of credit card debts and loans mostly on cars and holidays etc.She went bankrupt.Still has her good income though.So she consumed other peoples labour and saved labour but it was the banks who helped her steal it and it was the banks being bailed out.

So what is the difference?

A lot from a macro angle.

Girlfriend B and the banks were bailed out on PAST consumption,they were made whole.Deflationary.

Girlfriend A is now being bailed out on PRESENT and FUTURE spending.Inflationary.

B had already consumed,A is going to consume.

Super explanation DB.The wrost aspect for me is that she's living off promises made on behalf of future generations by the spendthrift boomer generation of today(I'm a late boomer so tkae it on the chin)

'Everything she consumes then is someone elses labour or saved labour.'...too true.

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

The first rule of this thread can not be emphasised more and that is the preservation of wealth by having a wide spread in the right sectors to front run inflation. Any growth on your investments that this thread discusses must be seen as a bonus and not a get rich quick .

 

With the passage of time it is clear now that in 2008 it was the banks that went bust. In 2020 it is governments world wide that are going bust. The QE we are now seeing is their bailout.

Talking of wealth preservation.Here's a chart from Jan 1st to may 1st 2020.Slaient point is that ZROZ(which reinvests the income from bonds) outperformed during the crisi months.Interesting that after the first wave of buying in UST's there was a selling wave as the margin calls came and then aother big wave up.

Red is the UST 10 yr

Gold is gold

US 30 yr is black

[Underwhelmed]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Goodbye freedom. 

 

I think this alludes to what DB said comes AFTER we're all (hopefully) stinking rich by 2030: dystopian hellscape 

Same as Greg Mannarino, bit reluctant to post his vid as it's more trading than macro and he's an acquired taste but today's daily vid is interesting

 

[Talking Monkey]

24 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Absolutely. 

 

Anyone who still thinks any of this was about a virus is off their effing rocker. 

 

I won't derail the thread so just watch the laughable bullshit that was coming from China early last year. Then ask yourself why it wasn't replicated ANYWHERE else on the planet. 

 

Then you have to ask what it's purpose was. I think we now know. 

 

 

Exactly that we didn't see any of that anywhere else. The scale and intricacy of the con is huge