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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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#debtdeflationcometh

300 good jobs going in Nottingham

Their High st stores have poor footfall per square metre if my research with Junior Panza is anything to go by.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/02/boots-to-cut-300-jobs-at-nottingham-head-office/

Boots has revealed plans to axe 300 office jobs as it continues to grapple with “changed consumer behaviours forever” in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The proposed job cuts will see health and beauty retailer lose about 10 per cent of its workforce at its Beeston head office in Nottinghamshire.

The roles affected will range from various divisions and seniority levels.

 

 

And if the news from the likes of Lloyds Bank about shrinking it's officce footprint weren't bad enough,here come the cart horse cavalry to kill the High St for ever with Woke shops noone wants to buy from.

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2021/02/give-councils-power-to-take-over-vacant-shops-labor/

Councils should be given the power to take over the management of empty shops as part of a plan to revive ailing high streets, Labour is set to announce today.

Local authorities should be given the power to repurpose commercial properties that have been vacant for at least 12 months to bring them back into use, shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds will say.

 

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M S E Refugee
34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Absolutely. 

 

Anyone who still thinks any of this was about a virus is off their effing rocker. 

 

I won't derail the thread so just watch the laughable bullshit that was coming from China early last year. Then ask yourself why it wasn't replicated ANYWHERE else on the planet. 

 

Then you have to ask what it's purpose was. I think we now know. 

 

 

Don't  mention the Coronavirus here.

I come down to the basement to cheer myself up.

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14 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Councils should be given the power to take over the management of empty shops as part of a plan to revive ailing high streets, Labour is set to announce today.

Local authorities should be given the power to repurpose commercial properties that have been vacant for at least 12 months to bring them back into use, shadow chancellor Anneliese Dodds will say.

 

That councils think they have the first clue about setting up and running small businesses, which is what they think they are going to do after "working with" owners to find tenants (and presumably failing) is utterly hilarious. They can't even collect the fucking bins properly.

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5 hours ago, Loki said:

All steel items we use (racking, electrical trunking etc) has gone up by 20% from our suppliers

If you can get it 

( I say our, I'm still self employed. The firm i do the most work for at present)

Edit: also @geordie_lurchmy manager says he knows someone who ships bathroom stuff from China and containers have gone from $1500 to $15000. Sounds excessive to me but that's what i was told. Can't guarantee accuracy though maybe he misheard

Yup my brother ships in from China for his business, container price went from $3500 to $13500.

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2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup my brother shops in from China for his business, container price went from $3500 to $13500.

Agreed. A friend working in the board games industry says their container costs went from $3,000 to $12,000. That was last week so it may have risen since.

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

So basically,the panicdemic was the warm up act?

 

Can we get clarification on who coined the phrase Big Kahuna aka BK on this thread? If it was me could I request that everyone puts a ™ mark afterwards? ;)

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Interesting chat that popped into my twitter feed, guy see similar numbers and timeframe

354937118_Screenshot2021-02-26at15_20_50.thumb.png.4d035f9d957d64ef14b780adc1039556.png

Interesting he mentions old school measures see $275,i see $200 with an outlier at $300.That $80 level could be shakeout area though.Im more bothered about that.

Imagine the rest of the economy if oil is trading at those levels.Transporting heavy lower value goods will really suffer.

 

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5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Get ready for more money to flow into property, gold for the masses. Not condoning, but a realistic expectation.

 

I sort of knew that government would freeze the pension LTA sooner or later - But not as soon as next week!! Anyone with significant pension pot investments should be very worried. I now certainly am because only last year i sold/transferred into a sipp, my employee defined benefit pension. I now need to seriously re-consider what i'm prepared to hold long term in my sipp. Not only do i expect/hope sipp value will go over the current LTA allowance (government may increase the LTA, or might not, who knows). But also the whole risk/reward equation changes for me now, if for example, my final pension pot - or large parts of it - are to be taxed at a (current marginal rate, i believe) of a whopping 55%?!? ...so is it worth the hassle of risking large amounts of own capital, only to be penalised in such a draconian way?    

In more general sense, this type of tax change does underscore the importance of planning/finding ways of holding assets away from the grabbing claws of the tax system - not in an illegal tax evasion way, but simply by ways of avoidance, by buying assets outside of the system that are harder to 'track and trace'!!  

I wonder what others think? I know this is not a new thread topic question, but the chancellor's move next week, if it does happen, kinda crystalises things a lot more i think. Actions like moving abroad, or buying land, in order to try to 'escape' the ravenous tax system, have been mentioned here before. Are there other interesting ideas that people are now thinking about?

...I hope that my above thinking/approach doesn't come across as being 'defeatist'? I prefer to think its more to do with 'future proofing' and 'diversification'!

 

I'll kick off with the following. Definitely not recommending this specific scheme, after all it's a startup venture so risky. But i do think the idea very interesting, and believe that within next 5 years this type of global blockchain/crypto/hard asset financial setup, and/or other more expansive alternatives, will replace significant parts of our current banking system. 

   Kinesis Gold - Presented by Shane Morand - YouTube

 

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44 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup my brother ships in from China for his business, container price went from $3500 to $13500.

I had a fantastic one man band import business for around 6 years and used to bring in 40 foot high cube containers,they are the big ones.I closed it down and sold off all my stock when my roadmap told me it was time to get out.Most of the money from stock went into the gold and silver miners,then potash and oil.Big companies pre book containers,but smaller ones dont,they book one when the goods are ready.That increase in price will wipeout all profit on a container bringing in anything decent sized.Say items in boxes of 60cmx60cmx20cm

Iv been buying lots of 2nd hand things on Facebook marketplace like spare mowers etc,prices will be shooting up soon.Supply chains will be collapsing.

 

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@JMD for myself i dont care about the tax change on pensions because i only ever intend to withdraw the tax allowance + 25% tax free from 55 to 68 and then go into full draw down,take 25% tax free and draw down around £3k a year on to of state pension.I would care if he removed the 25% tax free bit.

I like living frugal and by juggling tax allowances i can live very well,very cheap.Buying all your own tools 2nd hand for instance saves massive amounts of tax as you dont pay people to do jobs.The council tax is the only one im bothered about.

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16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying lots of 2nd hand things on Facebook marketplace like spare mowers etc,prices will be shooting up soon.Supply chains will be collapsing.

 

Don’t give me anymore ideas please. My partner will go mental if I start hoarding broken machinery for spare parts on top of everything else. I’ll end up like this guy.

https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/07/britains-biggest-hoarder-dies-suddenly-leaving-behind-4000000-treasure-trove-13386396/

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Chewing Grass
45 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Here we go...:ph34r:

 

Why? I know plenty of unemployed software people courtesy of Covid and now everyone can successfully WFH who the frick needs a visa to work in a foreign country.

As for the low-skilled we have Millions of them on benefits.

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29 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Why is it within the Chancellor's remit to launch new visas?

he needs to get his useless extended family onto the GBP benefits somehow.

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ThoughtCriminal
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats right and its what most are missing.This is fiscal printing,its not mostly going through the clearing system.For the theft of wealth its about a zillion times worse than bailing out banks,and that was shocking enough.

An example would be two ex girlfriends of mine.

Girlfriend A has now 3 kids and doesnt work.She has one of them down as disabled.She gets £2300 a month.The printing now is going direct to her to consume without doing any work.Everything she consumes then is someone elses labour or saved labour.Thats all saving are ,saved labour,your own or someone elses.

Girlfriend B had and still has a good job,circa £36k a year here in the North east.During the Blair/Brown years she ran up £84k of credit card debts and loans mostly on cars and holidays etc.She went bankrupt.Still has her good income though.So she consumed other peoples labour and saved labour but it was the banks who helped her steal it and it was the banks being bailed out.

So what is the difference?

A lot from a macro angle.

Girlfriend B and the banks were bailed out on PAST consumption,they were made whole.Deflationary.

Girlfriend A is now being bailed out on PRESENT and FUTURE spending.Inflationary.

B had already consumed,A is going to consume.

Have you got girlfriend B's number? Sounds like a fun girl 😂

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41 minutes ago, JMD said:

But also the whole risk/reward equation changes for me now, if for example, my final pension pot - or large parts of it - are to be taxed at a (current marginal rate, i believe) of a whopping 55%?!? ...so is it worth the hassle of risking large amounts of own capital, only to be penalised in such a draconian way? 

Any LTA charge is only paid on the amount over the LTA (at the point of crysallisation of that part) and not the whole pension pot. The 55% tax charge only applies if the pension is taken as a one off lump sum. If you take it as income then the charge is 25% and you then pay income tax (which could be 0, 20% or 40% depending on your marginal rate at the time). So the best way to take it is as income, pay LTA charge at 25% plus marginal income tax rate (over several years). 

If you are ever over the LTA and the BK hits, then that would be the time to crystallise the pension as any LTA charge will be less (or even zero if the total value falls below the LTA). 

There are other things that can be done. For example, HL will allow you to convert part of your SIPP to 3 small pots of £10K. These can then be taken under the small pots rule and dont count against the LTA. That would save you any LTA charge on that £30K. 55% of 30K is 16.5K.

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2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I thought it stretched back on HPC (we’ve all been preparing for some time).... xD

I can check i got barred for saying Help to Buy was creating an epic bubble on top of the bubble ... despite being correct.

cant

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