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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Have you got girlfriend B's number? Sounds like a fun girl 😂

Both sound like good examples as to why it's best to keep women at arm's length financially.

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Yadda yadda yadda
34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I thought call options were in anticipation of a rising market, yet everyone is expecting a BK. 

 

What am I missing here??? 

Note the dates on those charts. The ratio is up to last Friday. The volume is up to the end of January. What changed this week?

Has he deleted the other tweet already?

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ThoughtCriminal

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabo-we-are-about-lose-all-price-discovery-and-never-go-back-again-without-systemic-crash

 

I know ZH is blasphemy on here, but I think this is a good article. 

 

Basically arguing that price discovery is about to be destroyed forever due to the combination of yield curve control and QE to infinity. 

 

"There would still be unlimited liquidity for equities: and after all, it’s been weeks since we saw any major increases in QE, when any good Minsky-reader knows that you have to keep increasing such liquidity if you want to keep asset prices elevating (it’s the change in the change in debt/liquidity that drives things); "

 

 

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Note the dates on those charts. The ratio is up to last Friday. The volume is up to the end of January. What changed this week?

Has he deleted the other tweet already?

Yes, he deletes everything. 

 

The annoying bastard. 

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6 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I think 1680 as its a major fibb level, and even if I don't believe in fibb levels most of the market does.

My schoolboy TA also says we'll see 1680. At that point I will back up the truck and half fill it with miners, and get hold of a tube of sovs, if physical is available at a reasonable premium.

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19 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

One reply:

 

Sweet that he thinks there are millions of 'programmers' making up the British underclass. Soppy cunt has probably never had to wear steel toe caps or batter a drug dealer for setting up in his street. 

Funny how the anti-immigration talk now is coming from the professional classes, most of whom voted remain. Somebody should tell them its fine, competition is healthy, wages and conditions will only suffer if they're lazy bigots.

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3 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Funny how the anti-immigration talk now is coming from the professional classes, most of whom voted remain. Somebody should tell them its fine, competition is healthy, wages and conditions will only suffer if they're lazy bigots.

The trades/construction got fucked in 2009, and we got told not be racist etc etc you know it off by heart

 I've waited years for this.  

Enjoy, you sanctimonious cunts. 

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Yadda yadda yadda
5 minutes ago, Loki said:

The trades/construction got fucked in 2009, and we got told not be racist etc etc you know it off by heart

 I've waited years for this.  

Enjoy, you sanctimonious cunts. 

At the time the BBC was telling everyone how wonderful it was that there were lots of good and cheap tradesmen. They soon forgot that boast as they pretended immigration wasn't pushing down wages.

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6 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Sweet that he thinks there are millions of 'programmers' making up the British underclass. Soppy cunt has probably never had to wear steel toe caps or batter a drug dealer for setting up in his street. 

Funny how the anti-immigration talk now is coming from the professional classes, most of whom voted remain. Somebody should tell them its fine, competition is healthy, wages and conditions will only suffer if they're lazy bigots.

Offshoring was always going to come to the professions. The easy meat was picked off first. It is harder to find a cheap, foreign coder than a cheap, foreign plumber, but they do exist, and often have a far better grasp of mathematics than British coders, as they get a more rigorous maths education.

Most people in a profession think they're somehow special and therefore immune from the impact of immigration. Ironically, they're also the sort of people who bemoan "English exceptionalism".

I say this as a "professional", albeit one who realises that being professional at moving ones and zeroes around (formerly) in a fancy office is no better or worse than being professional at installing boilers.

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4 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

At the time the BBC was telling everyone how wonderful it was that there were lots of good and cheap tradesmen. They soon forgot that boast as they pretended immigration wasn't pushing down wages.

I had to make a minor edit xD  Of course, the 'discerning' customer is only interested in the appearance of the finished work - not whether it's actually any good or not.  

What I mean is, their lack of deep understanding makes it easy to believe they can hold those two points in their head and not find a contradiction.

 

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Bobthebuilder
2 minutes ago, AWW said:

I say this as a "professional", albeit one who realises that being professional at moving ones and zeroes around (formerly) in a fancy office is no better or worse than being professional at installing boilers.

People have been installing boilers for hundreds of years and will continue to do so for another 200. (I have no idea how long boilers will be in use, just a  guess).

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Yadda yadda yadda
8 minutes ago, Loki said:

I had to make a minor edit xD  Of course, the 'discerning' customer is only interested in the appearance of the finished work - not whether it's actually any good or not.  

What I mean is, their lack of deep understanding makes it easy to believe they can hold those two points in their head and not find a contradiction.

 

The perception of being good....

According to the bbc

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Every single job i've done in my 25 years has been replaced by an Indian.  Not one of them in this country. No doubt when i leave, my last job will be as well.  Coming for the professions seems somewhat redundant.  

The benefit of on shoring, well at least there is some tax take.  

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11 minutes ago, feed said:


Every single job i've done in my 25 years has been replaced by an Indian.  Not one of them in this country. No doubt when i leave, my last job will be as well.  Coming for the professions seems somewhat redundant.  

The benefit of on shoring, well at least there is some tax take.  

Same here, except after a year they have called me asking for help.

Which part of "Fuck Off" do they have difficulty understanding.

Those jobs are now appearing in my inbox.

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Chewing Grass

We have two African Engineers, one is Nigerian (from a middle class background) and a very pleasant bloke, the other is a big fella who loves fast food again from West Africa somewhere. Both of them are well in over their depth and were recruited due to the self inflicted skills gap of the late 90's and noughties. They are effectively bums on seats ripping off our clients and forcing others to work harder to cover for them. They make the Indians look good.

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Bus Stop Boxer
3 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Silver at £19/oz.

Yet physical silver is either still out of stock in a lot of places or trading at £25/oz.

 

Sovs were £309 on Baird earlier and available.

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49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/26/fed-has-lost-control-bond-markets-europe-victim/

World waking up slowly to what we have been saying all along.The key now is that companies have their debt structured in a way that they can redeem most without rolling over because rolling over is going to mean higher coupons.

 

This is the thing with a HPC, one day its all doom and gloom, then the next it looks as if its on its way .... (even though its a Doombrose article)

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Interesting he mentions old school measures see $275,i see $200 with an outlier at $300.That $80 level could be shakeout area though.Im more bothered about that.

Imagine the rest of the economy if oil is trading at those levels.Transporting heavy lower value goods will really suffer.

 

My only issue ahead of the BK is whetehr I sell our oilies and it's a big question.One of the few sectors that could make it through the carnage like the big miners in 2000/2002.The key to that was the low valuations for which the oilies are ticking boxes even at these levels.

It's the $80 shakeout that offers the opportunity.being a gambler,I'm tempted by a double up trade ahead of the BK ie I'd prob sell BP if I was offered £5.50-£6 and look to buy back cheaper.But selling BP at £4.50 doesn't really offer me the risk reward at that price.

Having said that the options markets are avalialable for ehdging.

 

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like Burry was being his usual contrarian self and thinks the call option explosion is about to be exposed as folly in a big way. 

Screenshot_20210226_202547_com.twitter.android.jpg

key thing is to look for the nuances.Here it's where that volume is.Is the put/call raio skewed heavily one way or the other?which companies are dominating the volume?if it's the faang stocks then the headline has little meaning for me as aside from me buying some shorts as we transition to the strong dollar phase.

3 hours ago, AWW said:

My schoolboy TA also says we'll see 1680. At that point I will back up the truck and half fill it with miners, and get hold of a tube of sovs, if physical is available at a reasonable premium.

I've been starting to eye Barrick since $23 bucks. @Cattle Prod is right,real rates are going down as inflation comes through ergo gold heading higher.

Like you,I think thats the back up the truck point.There are huge opporutnities here in the next month in gold I think.Defo tempted to rebuy some of the ones we sold Aug/Sept time.ALthough most likely it'll be a 3 -7 month trade so look to lever some calls

I jsut feel tehre's a sellers mod in the goldies which could .see sub $15 barrick,sub $3 HMY.There's jsut no good news out there which is normally a good time to pick some up jsut as everyone saying gold redundant because of crypto.

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Australia finished Friday with a nice bit of doomporn on the market reports:

Australian:

"The Australian dollar dived and investors wiped $51bn off the local sharemarket, while 10-year bond yields surged to a 12-month high, at the end of a torrid week as the global “bondcano” began to erupt with surging yields starting to cause broadbased risk aversion in global markets."

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2 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Australia finished Friday with a nice bit of doomporn on the market reports:

Australian:

"The Australian dollar dived and investors wiped $51bn off the local sharemarket, while 10-year bond yields surged to a 12-month high, at the end of a torrid week as the global “bondcano” began to erupt with surging yields starting to cause broadbased risk aversion in global markets."

my portfolio down 1.1% on the day, but still up 16% since start of year (cf 5% for my benchmarks).  I'm happy.

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