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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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8 hours ago, harp said:

Yep.
Every. Fucking. Time.
He's the most arrogant cunt on twitter. Can't stand him personally. Only good thing is he has a pretty daughter ;)

BUT. I'm poised and ready to go all in PMs. Only then will I think he is an outstanding genius....with a pretty daughter!

She’s fit but Jordan Peterson’s daughter wins in my book..

 

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6 hours ago, Loki said:

The trades/construction got fucked in 2009, and we got told not be racist etc etc you know it off by heart

 I've waited years for this.  

Enjoy, you sanctimonious cunts. 

And not just screams of 'racism', but we are also charged with stealing the national wealth from our former 'slave' empire countries. All crap of course, but the woke lefty types still join in with the demands for so called reparations to be paid!! Oh well, to be expected I guess, and just standard fare amongst the vocal minority, but unfortunately increasingly opinionated and influential, victim culture/identity-politics driven sociopath types!!! I don't like such people, perhaps you can tell?                                                                                    Anyway, the arguments are so divisive and ignorant. What I mean is, the so called 'wealth' enjoyed by the West is temporary and very illusory. Our 'decadant' (as the Russians used to term it) capitalist system encourages debt, which is really a device for bringing forward tomorrow's wealth in order to spend/consume it today. But as we have no means to repay our ever increasing loans, we will ultimately just default on the loans and which effectively means we are 'stealing' from the future. So 'stealing' yes, but from future generations, and definitely not from Asia, Africa or South America.

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Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

My only issue ahead of the BK is whetehr I sell our oilies and it's a big question.One of the few sectors that could make it through the carnage like the big miners in 2000/2002.The key to that was the low valuations for which the oilies are ticking boxes even at these levels.

It's the $80 shakeout that offers the opportunity.being a gambler,I'm tempted by a double up trade ahead of the BK ie I'd prob sell BP if I was offered £5.50-£6 and look to buy back cheaper.But selling BP at £4.50 doesn't really offer me the risk reward at that price.

Having said that the options markets are avalialable for ehdging.

 

key thing is to look for the nuances.Here it's where that volume is.Is the put/call raio skewed heavily one way or the other?which companies are dominating the volume?if it's the faang stocks then the headline has little meaning for me as aside from me buying some shorts as we transition to the strong dollar phase.

I've been starting to eye Barrick since $23 bucks. @Cattle Prod is right,real rates are going down as inflation comes through ergo gold heading higher.

Like you,I think thats the back up the truck point.There are huge opporutnities here in the next month in gold I think.Defo tempted to rebuy some of the ones we sold Aug/Sept time.ALthough most likely it'll be a 3 -7 month trade so look to lever some calls

I jsut feel tehre's a sellers mod in the goldies which could .see sub $15 barrick,sub $3 HMY.There's jsut no good news out there which is normally a good time to pick some up jsut as everyone saying gold redundant because of crypto.

SP quick one do you see barrick sub 15 in the next few weeks or in the BK.

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2 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Will we see a twitching in the mortgage market?

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/26/flexi-apprentices-work-one-company-rishi-sunaks-126m-jobs-boost/

Tens of thousands of young people will be able to make it on to the housing ladder under a Government-backed mortgage scheme to be unveiled by Rishi Sunak in next week’s Budget.

Under plans to turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, the Treasury will offer lenders a guarantee to ensure they can issue mortgages to first-time buyers and current homeowners covering 95 per cent of property value, up to £600,000.

This means buyers will need just a five per cent deposit. The proposals have been drawn up by Treasury officials in recent weeks, with discussions with banks well advanced.

It is expected to closely resemble the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced by David Cameron’s administration.

On Friday night, the Chancellor said: “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95 per cent mortgages, many more products will become available, helping people to achieve their dream and get on the housing ladder.”

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3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/26/flexi-apprentices-work-one-company-rishi-sunaks-126m-jobs-boost/

Tens of thousands of young people will be able to make it on to the housing ladder under a Government-backed mortgage scheme to be unveiled by Rishi Sunak in next week’s Budget.

Under plans to turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, the Treasury will offer lenders a guarantee to ensure they can issue mortgages to first-time buyers and current homeowners covering 95 per cent of property value, up to £600,000.

This means buyers will need just a five per cent deposit. The proposals have been drawn up by Treasury officials in recent weeks, with discussions with banks well advanced.

It is expected to closely resemble the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced by David Cameron’s administration.

On Friday night, the Chancellor said: “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95 per cent mortgages, many more products will become available, helping people to achieve their dream and get on the housing ladder.”

What was the one thing we all discussed on here and said that they would do as it was the ‘last chance saloon’ option?

Absolute tosspots the lot of them. Actively destroying the future for the younger generation. Just confirms to me my belief in crypto and a currency reset. These loans won’t be designed to be ever paid back or to ever ‘balance the books’.

It’s a fast train to clown world now and there’ll be no stops as the trains gone out of service.

 

2FE36C2C-0741-482B-8654-7AF36A4A31AB.jpeg

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25 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

What was the one thing we all discussed on here and said that they would do as it was the ‘last chance saloon’ option?

Absolute tosspots the lot of them. Actively destroying the future for the younger generation. Just confirms to me my belief in crypto and a currency reset. These loans won’t be designed to be ever paid back or to ever ‘balance the books’.

It’s a fast train to clown world now and there’ll be no stops as the trains gone out of service.

 

2FE36C2C-0741-482B-8654-7AF36A4A31AB.jpeg

It is a disgrace, but will it happen- I would hazard a guess that it won’t. Sunak can say what he wants, but if we look at this weeks events- the Feds actions/inactions dictate the outcome. If they tighten in the Summer which it is starting to look like they will- the BOE will have it’s hands tied- just like the ECB are now. This isn’t 2009, industry is now the key and driver to the UK and any other countries economy that wants to develop in the next 10 years not housing- Sunak knows this but he can’t be seen sending it down the river without a good send off.

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The Australian, saturday edition

"Australian energy giant Woodside has become the latest major company to reduce its presence in Myanmar, announcing it has placed all business decisions there under review and will pull out its offshore drilling team until the outlook for the country and its political stability improves.

The ASX-listed company made the announcement on Saturday after The Weekend Australian reported it was under rising pressure to reveal details of its gas exploration contracts in Myanmar"

One of the reasons I am so grateful to DB is that without him encouraging me to think about this in early 2020, I would never have been ready in time from an investment point of view.  As chaos spreads around the world from COVID and inflation impacts, I can see more and more supply issues arising.  Now, the item above is probably just a blip in terms of global gas supply, but it all adds up on future supply availability....

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4 hours ago, Hancock said:

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/26/flexi-apprentices-work-one-company-rishi-sunaks-126m-jobs-boost/

Tens of thousands of young people will be able to make it on to the housing ladder under a Government-backed mortgage scheme to be unveiled by Rishi Sunak in next week’s Budget.

Under plans to turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, the Treasury will offer lenders a guarantee to ensure they can issue mortgages to first-time buyers and current homeowners covering 95 per cent of property value, up to £600,000.

This means buyers will need just a five per cent deposit. The proposals have been drawn up by Treasury officials in recent weeks, with discussions with banks well advanced.

It is expected to closely resemble the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced by David Cameron’s administration.

On Friday night, the Chancellor said: “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95 per cent mortgages, many more products will become available, helping people to achieve their dream and get on the housing ladder.”

As expected, and we ain't seen nothing yet. Sweden has 105 year mortgages, although granted down from a more ridiculous 140 years in 2016. 30 year fixed mortgages the norm across the pond.

Wealthy Hong Kongers buying up property in our city centres to rent out, highly educated immigration on the way, and this. All news stories within the space of a single week. What else I wonder? As the old Aussie perv used to say, "can you see what it is yet?".

Sadly there is an intrinsic, written in granite understanding amongst central banks and government that consumer confidence is directly tied to the direction of the price of housing, and will remain the case until the demographic time bomb forces wage inflation. As we've just discussed, UK Gov PLC will try their best to offset this with educated immigration from much poorer nations, with a much greater willingness to procreate and grow their families than our increasingly bisexual generation Z population. Just look around the world at the destinations most sought after by highly educated immigrants and the corresponding house prices (NZ, Australia, Canada, Singapore). Sunak wants this.

I spent years being angry, but you have to take a step back and look at things and probabilities without emotion as much as possible as it'll destroy you.

 

 

We're currently at X

1873026487_uk-house-prices-20203.jpg.093a8470a7d6acf52c2234f09820a7a1.jpg

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geordie_lurch
4 hours ago, Hancock said:

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

Yep and I really can't see any other way those losses and all of the other money printing that's been going on worldwide isn't going to be written off in some sort of 'reset' event :ph34r:

I say this after having now spent over 12 months trying to make sense of all this Covid virus and associated crap. The simplest explanation I can come up with for it all is that they needed one last excuse to get the debt high enough where they can justify imposing a debt jubilee and force us into their new Central Bank Digital Currencies. The excuse given still be that it's an unprecedented emergency due to Covid and needed to save the financial system just like 2008 but on steroids.

I'm still not sure if our ISAs and any funds in banks will be forced to take a haircut but I can't see any other explanation for the levels of printing, destruction of small businesses and getting so many used to existing on benefits but am open to other explanations O.o

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12 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

If everyone is expecting a BK, it's already in the price. So market will go up. BK will happen when everyone is expecting the market to rise forever ("the new bond market" I can hear), except hopefully us basement cretins B|

It’s the opposite, no? If you were concerned of markets falling you’d buy puts. Puts give you the right but not the obligation to sell at a fixed price I.e. you’d make money in a falling market. The fact everyone’s buying calls suggests they’re expecting markets to keep on rising.

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ThoughtCriminal

SP, CP (or any other P)

 

Do you have any good recommendations for reading up on using puts and calls? 

 

I thought there was a subforum on here where the options boys hung out, but I can't find it. 

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2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

What was the one thing we all discussed on here and said that they would do as it was the ‘last chance saloon’ option?

Absolute tosspots the lot of them. Actively destroying the future for the younger generation. Just confirms to me my belief in crypto and a currency reset. These loans won’t be designed to be ever paid back or to ever ‘balance the books’.

It’s a fast train to clown world now and there’ll be no stops as the trains gone out of service.

 

2FE36C2C-0741-482B-8654-7AF36A4A31AB.jpeg

Yep, likely never paid back.  Just like the majority of student loans.  What could possibly go wrong?

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14 minutes ago, feed said:

https://www.teletrader.com/house-passes-1-9t-covid-relief/news/details/54753560?internal=1

The United States House of Representatives on Saturday advanced the $1.9 trillion large support package proposed by President Joe Biden.

I was wondering what the delay was. Now I get it. Wait until the market looks shaky then turn the tap on.

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5 hours ago, Hancock said:

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/26/flexi-apprentices-work-one-company-rishi-sunaks-126m-jobs-boost/

Tens of thousands of young people will be able to make it on to the housing ladder under a Government-backed mortgage scheme to be unveiled by Rishi Sunak in next week’s Budget.

Under plans to turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, the Treasury will offer lenders a guarantee to ensure they can issue mortgages to first-time buyers and current homeowners covering 95 per cent of property value, up to £600,000.

This means buyers will need just a five per cent deposit. The proposals have been drawn up by Treasury officials in recent weeks, with discussions with banks well advanced.

It is expected to closely resemble the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced by David Cameron’s administration.

On Friday night, the Chancellor said: “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95 per cent mortgages, many more products will become available, helping people to achieve their dream and get on the housing ladder.”

Utter cunt, but am I not correct in remembering that HTB had a pretty low uptake?

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5 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I was wondering what the delay was. Now I get it. Wait until the market looks shaky then turn the tap on.

 I thought the delay was due to a requirement for a 60% majority to get it through and not all democrats were on board initially.

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ThoughtCriminal
2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

As expected, and we ain't seen nothing yet. Sweden has 105 year mortgages, although granted down from a more ridiculous 140 years in 2016. 30 year fixed mortgages the norm across the pond.

I don't understand those 100 year mortgages in Sweden, their house prices are much cheaper than ours. 

 

The average swede would faint if they had to buy here. 

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3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I don't understand those 100 year mortgages in Sweden, their house prices are much cheaper than ours. 

 

The average swede would faint if they had to buy here. 

In the big cities prices are eye watering.

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12 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Utter cunt, but am I not correct in remembering that HTB had a pretty low uptake?

My guess is most will probably struggle even with the 5% deposit.

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56 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

SP, CP (or any other P)

 

Do you have any good recommendations for reading up on using puts and calls? 

 

I thought there was a subforum on here where the options boys hung out, but I can't find it. 

 

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The government scheme will likely lead to falling house prices,not rising because demand for renting will start to fall and continue to fall.The government here is trying to move billions of future housing benefit cost by getting peole to own instead.There is actually little risk to government as long as these are 25 year repayment mortgages.The first 5% is the buyers risk,then each year around 2% of the capital is repaid slowly increasing.In 5 years 15% will be paid off.

This policy is simply designed to trap younger people into working longer,and remove a large percentage in future from housing benefits.Of course this fails if they are allowed to use the system over and over,or if it is a one off.

In other news 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/27/soaring-prices-fuel-hopes-new-commoditiessupercycle/

This is why you need to work on a roadmap and do cross market work.While everyone was selling oilies the roadmap was clear increased green spending was a route likely to be used at the end of the dis-inflation and that would see a big increase in energy demand.This thread was full of people when BP were £2 and Repsol Euro6 saying they are going to nothing,im down 10% etc.Whipsawed by sentiment rather than put in some effort.

Of course its highly likely the market will have to shake out people,but most funds have already dumped the sector.

It sticks with me thinking about the agency workers in my last job doing the line supply on £9 an hour with NEST pensions.That woke idiot women in charge sold all their inflation hedges at the bottom.Iv often thought contrarian investing with a macro strategy would fade away over time as information became more available,yet it seems not.The opposite.

Copper is doing so well because China will be spending hard on its power system.40% of Chinas copper use goes on its power system.That means with a lag power demand is about to increase in China,likely from the middle of this year.Maybe the start of the great natural gas bull.

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33 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

 I thought the delay was due to a requirement for a 60% majority to get it through and not all democrats were on board initially.

That's the pantomime freak-show story version.

I'm an incurable cynic now. 

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