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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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ThoughtCriminal
12 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

In the big cities prices are eye watering.

Like anywhere, but Stockholm nowhere near London prices for instance 

 

A country home in Sweden is about a quarter of the English equivalent 

34 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

 

Cheers C 👍

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geordie_lurch

This made me laugh... "China emits more carbon dioxide in 16 days than Australia does in one year, according to new research published by a free-market think tank." via The Epoch Times or ZH here then you look up how much coal Australia dug up and sent to China...

In 2019, Australia exported A$13.7 billion worth of coal to China. This comprised A$9.7 billion in metallurgical coal for steel making and A$4 billion in thermal coal for electricity generation.

xD

EDIT  I have then just read the following elsewhere here... I give up trying to understand a lot of this :S

Quote

In May last year, China’s government effectively banned the import of Australian coal, by applying stringent import quotas. As of last month coal exports to China from Newcastle, Australia’s busiest coal exporting port, had ceased.

In 2019, Australia exported A$13.7 billion worth of coal to China. This comprised A$9.7 billion in metallurgical coal for steel making and A$4 billion in thermal coal for electricity generation.

The latest official Australian data shows these export levels fell dramatically between November 2019 and November 2020. Comparing the two months, metallurgical and thermal coal exports to China were down 85% and 83% respectively.

Several Chinese provinces experienced power blackouts in late 2020. China’s state-backed media said the shortages were unrelated to the ban on Australian coal. Instead, they blamed cold weather and the recovery in industrial activity after the pandemic.

We dispute this claim. While Australian coal accounts for only about 2% of coal consumption in China, it helps maintain reliable supply for many power stations in China’s southeast coastal provinces.

 

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30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government scheme will likely lead to falling house prices,not rising because demand for renting will start to fall and continue to fall.The government here is trying to move billions of future housing benefit cost by getting peole to own instead.There is actually little risk to government as long as these are 25 year repayment mortgages.The first 5% is the buyers risk,then each year around 2% of the capital is repaid slowly increasing.In 5 years 15% will be paid off.

This policy is simply designed to trap younger people into working longer,and remove a large percentage in future from housing benefits.Of course this fails if they are allowed to use the system over and over,or if it is a one off.

In other news 

I hadn’t thought of it from that perspective but makes sense especially with the BTL tax changes etc- this is more about home ownership than speculation on BTL and the house price inflation that leveraged BTL brings.

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Oil is cheap.  Just paid £200 for 500 litres of heating oil.  OK, not my lowest but not bad.  Storage leads and lags and demand versus supply.  Usage nicely down this season thanks to the log burner.  Out chopping more new wood this weekend! 

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8 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

I hadn’t thought of it from that perspective but makes sense especially with the BTL tax changes etc- this is more about home ownership than speculation on BTL and the house price inflation that leveraged BTL brings.

Then do it at the same time as hitting BTL to pay for it!

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Just a thought... Mortgages for people on universal credit? Costs no more in the short term but probably full of holes I can't think of as I've found bottles of cobra for 1.69 in home bargains, the sun was shining for the first time in 6 months and am thus drunk far too early on a Saturday morning. 

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Riddle of the day:

How come investing in polluting energy companies is immoral but investing in BTL, depriving the young security and a stake in society, is not?

Answer to follow (really!).

 

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Fully Detached
13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Riddle of the day:

How come investing in polluting energy companies is immoral but investing in BTL, depriving the young security and a stake in society, is not?

Answer to follow.

 

D'uh - BTL is a morally superior investment because it provides homes for people who can't afford to... oh, wait.

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From the BBC article:

Former Conservative chancellor Lord Clarke called for Mr Sunak to raise taxes in order to bring the UK's finances under control, and warned "if we don't get it under control before inflation comes back then we will face a financial crisis".

They know.

In the mean time, borrow more than you can pay back and hope you get a house you can end up dying in cos you ain't selling it when it goes pop.

It's a sweet game.

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2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Utter cunt, but am I not correct in remembering that HTB had a pretty low uptake?

Was big enough to make house prices go through the roof from 2013 onwards. Told the markets the Tory cunts wont let the market crash.

This is the worst kind of HTB, one where everyone can get a mortgage and not just for new builds.

This will 100% certainly see prices continue to rise

image.png.fe0fc6023ffb17bca50b82f7a8d5329b.png

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Then do it at the same time as hitting BTL to pay for it!

They hit BTL and 2nd home owners with tax break just months ago, these people are just evil traitorous scum.

 

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government scheme will likely lead to falling house prices,not rising because demand for renting will start to fall and continue to fall.

Short to mid term it will lead to house prices rising.

If govt wanted owners to buy BTL houses they've spent 11 years allowing BTL to continue to grow, with small little kicks to them here and there.

The fact a BTLer can still offset interest payments and an OO cannot shows how much they really want to go after them.

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Oil is cheap.  Just paid £200 for 500 litres of heating oil.  OK, not my lowest but not bad.  Storage leads and lags and demand versus supply.  Usage nicely down this season thanks to the log burner.  Out chopping more new wood this weekend! 

Random question how long does that 500 litres last you

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25 minutes ago, PrincessDrac said:

Thanks for that, I have been looking to buy something gold. I have a lot of physical gold, mainly antique jewelry. But I have been waiting patiently for gold to fall, my brother keeps me informed, he thinks we could be near the bottom, so I will wait.

Barrick $15 ($18.67) and Harmony $3 ($3.79).

So gold miners works for me. Some others I have been looking at to day include, CEY, HOC, POLY, FRES. They all look reasonable. But I will wait until next week. They might go a bit lower. Budget week and all that.

Maybe you already know but just be aware the miners are a volatile rollercoaster ride. Nice when it goes up mind.

Here is the 10 year chart for Barrick  share pice for instance.Barrick Gold Corp performance chart

 

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7 minutes ago, Errol said:

A hit piece on gold from the FT in 2004. Gold was priced at $400 an ounce at the time. xD

Effective saving vehicles are kryptonite to the finance industry. FT is currently giving bitcoin the same treatment.

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3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Like anywhere, but Stockholm nowhere near London prices for instance 

 

A country home in Sweden is about a quarter of the English equivalent 

Cheers C 👍

But with no local jobs that pay well it’s like moveing up north in the uk.I aready know most southern opinions regarding that 

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2 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Just a thought... Mortgages for people on universal credit? Costs no more in the short term but probably full of holes I can't think of as I've found bottles of cobra for 1.69 in home bargains, the sun was shining for the first time in 6 months and am thus drunk far too early on a Saturday morning. 

I could well end up looking around specialist brokers in the future not sure what to do yet .will let Covid vanish then watch what happens to the economy and house prices .

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ThoughtCriminal
6 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

But with no local jobs that pay well it’s like moveing up north in the uk.I aready know most southern opinions regarding that 

But you're missing the point stokie, like for like it's 4 times the price in England. 

 

The only reason southerners don't move north here is inertia. 

 

Logically you could sell up down south and be mortgage free in a nice 3 bed semi for 150k in the north. 

 

Tge quality of life impact and options you create are immeasurable. 

 

Instead it's a life of woe trying to buy the same house for 500k

 

 

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Random question how long does that 500 litres last you

Depends on the time of year.  Usually two to three 500 litre deliveries per year.  Only two needed in the last 12 months given the use of wood.  I used about 500 litres since September 2020, so covering the worst period.  Could have used wood more.  Target is one to two deliveries per year so 1,000 litres a year.

It's partially an old stone house.  I've a large pile of insulation bought way back (cheaper) to put in, plus looking at an air to air heat pump to heat my main living room and heat recovery (more for air quality control though).  Also looking at remote controlled radiator thermostats to finer tune the heating cycles.

Electric is used for cooking, etc and costs about £50 a month.  Looking to install solar.  

Need to recommission a bore hole as water costs have gone high (leak or need to finish the shower install?).

PS:  Nothing better than a wood burner after a walk in the snow, and at Christmas.  

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Bobthebuilder
47 minutes ago, Harley said:

Depends on the time of year.  Usually two to three 500 litre deliveries per year.  Only two needed in the last 12 months given the use of wood.  I used about 500 litres since September 2020, so covering the worst period.  Could have used wood more.  Target is one to two deliveries per year so 1,000 litres a year.

It's partially an old stone house.  I've a large pile of insulation bought way back (cheaper) to put in, plus looking at an air to air heat pump to heat my main living room and heat recovery (more for air quality control though).  Also looking at remote controlled radiator thermostats to finer tune the heating cycles.

Electric is used for cooking, etc and costs about £50 a month.  Looking to install solar.  

Need to recommission a bore hole as water costs have gone high (leak or need to finish the shower install?).

PS:  Nothing better than a wood burner after a walk in the snow, and at Christmas.  

Have you had a look for a back burner on the wood burner? My Gas safe inspector has one, he says he hardly uses any gas at all in the winter, combined with wet solar to top up in the summer. Expensive to install is the only downside.

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Hi, I read this thread everyday but don't post as it's a still over my head a lot of it sadly.

My multinational employer has just announced a payrise of 1%. I keep reading people screaming about cash being trash etc which I get but for the time being I'm definitely going to be poorer and it feels like we are quite a way off people being able to demand pay increases if that happens at all. I have a house deposit I am worried about and stress over housing.

Wage inflation seems the real danger of when I might get left behind, will the reflation companies that have been able to pass on costs to customers lead the way in pay rises? There's a danger I get left behind by further speculation but that's happened already and I believe affordability is at it's limits. Wage inflation will really finish me off.

Just wondered if there are early indicators to look for or a point in the cycle it would happen, feels like there is going to be pain first and we are a few years away at least?

Thanks

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Bobthebuilder
1 minute ago, Rhines said:

My multinational employer has just announced a payrise of 1%

Hello Rhines,

I cannot answer your question, others might do better. I do want to point out I am a self-employed tradesman and I have not had a price work pay rise for 20 years. The government imported too much competition and have depressed wages in my sector.

Welcome to the club.

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