Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[dgul]

10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hello Rhines,

I cannot answer your question, others might do better. I do want to point out I am a self-employed tradesman and I have not had a price work pay rise for 20 years. The government imported too much competition and have depressed wages in my sector.

Welcome to the club.

Pay rises are for the public sector only.

Until they're not (give it time).

[ThoughtCriminal]

How's this for inflation? 

Bought a load of gear for an azzy job next week from a supplier (we usually get it from the, ahem, black market) and the prices are through the roof compared to a year ago. 

 

Half mask respirator 50, was 22. Some covid inflation there but, fuck me...... 😳

 

Roll of polythene 40, was 30

 

Bags 50, was 42

 

Box of tape 30, was 25 

 

Anyone else in trades etc noticing materials rocketing? 

[leonardratso]

so you just tape plastic bags over this asbestos eh, clever.

[Rhines]

30 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hello Rhines,

I cannot answer your question, others might do better. I do want to point out I am a self-employed tradesman and I have not had a price work pay rise for 20 years. The government imported too much competition and have depressed wages in my sector.

Welcome to the club.

Thanks, I work for a good employer fortunately and I'm generally ok in life apart from housing which is brutal especially in the SW. But grateful to have a job etc. 

Was interested in hearing peoples opinions on the speed of the inflation wage wise because I think I have a window to buy a home or move out of cash, maybe I should have already done that. Sad to worry about this stuff it's the wild west.

[Nomad]

Just been speaking to neighbour, his son is trying to buy a house. He's having difficulty as they are selling so fast. They now have waiting lists. Crazy, how is this going to end. This is in south Dorset.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Hancock said:

Short to mid term it will lead to house prices rising.

If govt wanted owners to buy BTL houses they've spent 11 years allowing BTL to continue to grow, with small little kicks to them here and there.

The fact a BTLer can still offset interest payments and an OO cannot shows how much they really want to go after them.

True,but from the government id probably do the same.

First i need to trap the young into working.

Next i need to get them to vote Tory.

Last i need to stop everyone claiming housing benefit once they retire,become unemployed.

Im not supporting it of course.Like you say putting rent against mortgage payments for Ltds is criminal when OOs cant do the same with their wages.

Every new home formation is more for telcos though

Trapping young people in over priced housing is disgusting,but its the weapon of choice to keep them working.

This budget is going to be very interesting for us all.Even more so the tax one a few weeks later.

[Hancock]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

True,but from the government id probably do the same.

First i need to trap the young into working.

Next i need to get them to vote Tory.

Last i need to stop everyone claiming housing benefit once they retire,become unemployed.

Im not supporting it of course.Like you say putting rent against mortgage payments for Ltds is criminal when OOs cant do the same with their wages.

Every new home formation is more for telcos though

Trapping young people in over priced housing is disgusting,but its the weapon of choice to keep them working.

This budget is going to be very interesting for us all.Even more so the tax one a few weeks later.

All this will do is put house prices up, this pricing more out and putting the housing benefit bill up.

Basic rate taxpayers can still set offset their mortgage interest payments, so long as they dont hit 50k per annum.

Thus the parasitic fucks with say 4-5 BTLs get this tax break. This needs to end this week.

[ThoughtCriminal]

38 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

so you just tape plastic bags over this asbestos eh, clever.

Be a hell of a lot cheaper if I did. Lol

 

1000 Gauge polythene for the sheets and double bagged in special marked bags for the rubble. 

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Be a hell of a lot cheaper if I did. Lol

 

1000 Gauge polythene for the sheets and double bagged in special marked bags for the rubble. 

and sent back to australia? what happens to the asbestos? do they just bury it and forget about it?

[geordie_lurch]

5 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Be a hell of a lot cheaper if I did. Lol. 1000 Gauge polythene for the sheets and double bagged in special marked bags for the rubble. 

I bought a house with an old asbestos flue in it for the hot air heating and wanted it out. After speaking to a builder mate he said you can double bag them in heavy polythene yourself and take them to the local council tip who told me to put them in a special skip. I was super careful to put loads of PVA glue on the parts I needed to break to manoeuvrer them out in as large chunks as I could. This was advised to stop any particles flying about so here's hoping it did the trick!

I'm more worried about the old garage roofs we used to smash and jump on as kids to be honest giving me something dodgy later in life

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

and sent back to australia? what happens to the asbestos? do they just bury it and forget about it?

Landfill in teesside. There's millions of tonnes of it there.

 

Theyre currently building new cells to put it in as there's estimated to be another 100 years worth still in situ. 

 

This country had the biggest hard on for asbestos anywhere in the world. 

 

Luckily for me I suppose, or I'd still be rolling around on the floor with smack heads trying to slash me in HMPS 😂

 

If anyone on here ever needs advice about asbestos then don't hesitate to DM me btw. Even if I'm too far away to do the job I can stop you getting ripped off or potentially killing yourself. 

 

Free advice service is for DOSBODers only. 

 

Unless you have a fit sister...........

[JMD]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The government scheme will likely lead to falling house prices,not rising because demand for renting will start to fall and continue to fall.The government here is trying to move billions of future housing benefit cost by getting peole to own instead.There is actually little risk to government as long as these are 25 year repayment mortgages.The first 5% is the buyers risk,then each year around 2% of the capital is repaid slowly increasing.In 5 years 15% will be paid off.

This policy is simply designed to trap younger people into working longer,and remove a large percentage in future from housing benefits.Of course this fails if they are allowed to use the system over and over,or if it is a one off.

In other news 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/27/soaring-prices-fuel-hopes-new-commoditiessupercycle/

This is why you need to work on a roadmap and do cross market work.While everyone was selling oilies the roadmap was clear increased green spending was a route likely to be used at the end of the dis-inflation and that would see a big increase in energy demand.This thread was full of people when BP were £2 and Repsol Euro6 saying they are going to nothing,im down 10% etc.Whipsawed by sentiment rather than put in some effort.

Of course its highly likely the market will have to shake out people,but most funds have already dumped the sector.

It sticks with me thinking about the agency workers in my last job doing the line supply on £9 an hour with NEST pensions.That woke idiot women in charge sold all their inflation hedges at the bottom.Iv often thought contrarian investing with a macro strategy would fade away over time as information became more available,yet it seems not.The opposite.

Copper is doing so well because China will be spending hard on its power system.40% of Chinas copper use goes on its power system.That means with a lag power demand is about to increase in China,likely from the middle of this year.Maybe the start of the great natural gas bull.

Why will it lead to lower house prices? Surely new government debt schemes just sustain/increase the property bubble we already have? If government were alternatively to massively increase supply via a national house building program then that would help, but I really can't help thinking this would only be effective if done in tandem with squeezing mortgage credit, as easy credit attracts too much money into an asset class, and working people will always remain the pawns in that game scenario.                                                            I think government hands are tied politically/economically and will go for introducing vote winning, radical mortgage products next week. I hope and look forward to the gurus of this thread doing some deep dives into the rules/funding of the new mortgage products. Perhaps there will be an indication that mortgage rate will be decoupled from wider bank rates. And I've said before that we should watch out for a UK version of Freddie Mac. Might be a useful early indicator of how much our government wants to interfere in markets of all kinds going forward.                                                                                                                                                                             In the mean time I shall make a prediction just for a laugh... How about them doing a 99 year, 80% LTV, shared equity, offset mortgage, fixed at 3%? I also think the small print will be very revealling. So maybe it will be a fully portable/flexible loan, allowing mortgage holidays just incase of the unexpected - unemployment/pandemic lockdowns(!). But it will come with penalties - and the clever bit might be that the shared equity loan portion is backed by government, so that over time the government effectively becomes the nation's biggest residential property owner/landlord! ...Shall wait and see how accurate any of this is in the crazily contrived Covid times we now live!!

[Bus Stop Boxer]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Not likely its about to be fully nationalised ... potential losses that is.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/26/flexi-apprentices-work-one-company-rishi-sunaks-126m-jobs-boost/

Tens of thousands of young people will be able to make it on to the housing ladder under a Government-backed mortgage scheme to be unveiled by Rishi Sunak in next week’s Budget.

Under plans to turn “generation rent” into “generation buy”, the Treasury will offer lenders a guarantee to ensure they can issue mortgages to first-time buyers and current homeowners covering 95 per cent of property value, up to £600,000.

This means buyers will need just a five per cent deposit. The proposals have been drawn up by Treasury officials in recent weeks, with discussions with banks well advanced.

It is expected to closely resemble the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, introduced by David Cameron’s administration.

On Friday night, the Chancellor said: “By giving lenders the option of a government guarantee on 95 per cent mortgages, many more products will become available, helping people to achieve their dream and get on the housing ladder.”

Does this apply to all house puchases or just the ones built by the tory party donors big builders?

 

To whom do i speak viz shorting the shit out of the west?

[Bricormortis]

Deleted post

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

I bought a house with an old asbestos flue in it for the hot air heating and wanted it out. After speaking to a builder mate he said you can double bag them in heavy polythene yourself and take them to the local council tip who told me to put them in a special skip. I was super careful to put loads of PVA glue on the parts I needed to break to manoeuvrer them out in as large chunks as I could. This was advised to stop any particles flying about so here's hoping it did the trick!

I'm more worried about the old garage roofs we used to smash and jump on as kids to be honest giving me something dodgy later in life

You'll be ok G, flues and those garage rooves are bonded products made with cement. Very hard for the asbestos to get airborne. 

 

Still wouldn't recommend jumping on garage rooves made of it though.

Especially now you're 43 😂

[ThoughtCriminal]

5 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Does this apply to all house puchases or just the ones built by the tory party donors big builders?

 

To whom do i speak viz shorting the shit out of the west?

I'd like to listen in on that call to the broker: "Hello. I'd like to short western civilisation please". 

 

🤣🤣🤣

[Hancock]

17 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Does this apply to all house puchases or just the ones built by the tory party donors big builders?

 

To whom do i speak viz shorting the shit out of the west?

I believe it is all house purchases and everyone has access to use it.

Like HTB2 which was stopped as it sent prices too high, but theyve seen what it does and decided that is what they want.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Hancock said:

I believe it is all house purchases and everyone has access to use it.

Like HTB2 which was stopped as it sent prices too high, but theyve seen what it does and decided that is what they want.

I noticed in the shop this morning that The Times front page said "mortgage help for first time buyers".

[Hancock]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

I noticed in the shop this morning that The Times front page said "mortgage help for first time buyers".

Yes the MSM are telling us all its wonderful, the comments sections show what the plebs think.

Sometime wonder why the bother with having speeches such as the budget when everything is given to the MSM several days in advance.

We knew it was coming its just sickening to see the levels they will go to, to fuck people like me over.

Not sure if its worse it coming from an immigrant then being fucked over by an indigenous British piece of shite.

[Noallegiance]

Sooooooo I'm fucked. Renting forever because I used my brain or borrowing for a £500,000 house because I have a family and standards.

Absolute cunts. 

[Noallegiance]

Does this government backing mean that if mortgages fail the house gets given to the government?

[Hancock]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Does this government backing mean that if mortgages fail the house gets given to the government?

Bank will sell the house but any loss is a hit for the taxpayer.

Heads the banks and builder win at the taxpayers expense, tails banks and builders win at the taxpayers expense.

But this came from a Thatcherite free market think tank, which sums up how free market Thatcher really was.

[Barnsey]

24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I noticed in the shop this morning that The Times front page said "mortgage help for first time buyers".

To clarify:

The new mortgage scheme is not restricted to first-time buyers or new-build homes, but there will be a £600,000 limit.

It is based on the Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme, which closed to new loans at the end of 2016, a policy the Treasury said "reinvigorated the market for high loan-to-value lending after the 2008 financial crisis".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56218952

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

To clarify:

The new mortgage scheme is not restricted to first-time buyers or new-build homes, but there will be a £600,000 limit.

At a time when they are stopping Help to Buy so it only applies to FTBers, and is limited per region and can only be used on new builds.

It truly is surreal that this is happening. 

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, Hancock said:

At a time when they are stopping Help to Buy so it only applies to FTBers, and is limited per region and can only be used on new builds.

It truly is surreal that this is happening. 

Surreal? Predictable.