Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[No One]

On 25/02/2021 at 22:29, wherebee said:

This.

HKers will improve, overall, the UK.  If there was no immigration to date, I could make an argument against Hkers, but as the country has fucked itself demographically anyway, you might as well bring in a load who will vote against socialism and wokeism, cannot be accused of racism, and generally follow the rules and pay taxes.

Plus - I suspect the landlord class is going to get raped in the next decade by whichever government wins power.  This could be sucking in the geese for plucking.

No, its wont.

 

Whilts I agree Hkers are probably the best of all the possible migrant groups, there will still be:

a) increased housing costs

b) a depression of wages

both of which are against the core of many of the people who joined HPC at first and later this site

[Cosmic]

36 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Wooh there.

The coast and the exposed hill cans be cold.

But its not a huge difference- 3-5% at worse. It's not Moscow - or even Paris.

What you've got to look for us microclimates.

The moors near me are pretty unpopulated bar sone idiot sheep farm.

But when you go into valleys n dips you've loads of sheltered cottages.

 

Yep I'm at 1000ft, as I walk down 700ft in to the valley you see the plants that are flowering/budding earlier. Just keep off the hills and extreme low points of valleys and you'll be fine

Our office is on the canal, lots of folks living on the boats. Can't say it appeals... seems to take a character as you might say.

[Sugarlips]

3 hours ago, No One said:

No, its wont.

 

Whilts I agree Hkers are probably the best of all the possible migrant groups, there will still be:

a) increased housing costs

b) a depression of wages

both of which are against the core of many of the people who joined HPC at first and later this site

They can also be quite rude, self entitled and insular in my experience but yes better than some

[JMD]

5 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Hi @JMD,

I think when @DB mentioned this figure it consisted of his PTA of £12500 plus the first 25% Tax Free allowance on any sum taken from a DC type pension [not CGT]. I am hoping you could also get the CGT on top of this hence my though/discussion point a couple of pages ago about potentially transferring an employers DC pension into a SIPP and then selling of some shares/stock each you to maximize the CGT allowance as well....Maybe @FrankHovis may see this and comment as I believe he has a background in this area.

Mr Xxxx thanks, you are correct. I wrote my question quickly and carelessly, the '25%' portion of sipp income withdrawal of course refers to the amount allowed to be extracted tax free, and is nothing to do with CGT allowances. I'm still learning, but understanding how to keep under the various tax free limits is such a powerful tool for retaining your income/wealth. And my big thanks go out to DB for talking regularly on this thread about the topic.

[Barnsey]

12 hours ago, Hancock said:

Surely making people poorer is disinflationary.

Stagflationary?

 

[Noallegiance]

Just cos...

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Currently in Stafford, almost the north, 1hr 15mins from Euston, under an hour with HS2.

Same

Hear this all the time, the price divergence has occurred almost perfectly in line with this 40 year disinflation cycle. Not convinced this will remain the case.

WOlf has had some great data on declining retns in San Fran/New York etc and on rising rents in Cleveland and other forgotten cities.Hoem working etc etc

Working in the field I do,I can see Londinium depopulating quickly when people can swap a one bed flat for a four bed hosue in Northants/Leics.

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

@working woman dont let that put you off. About 65% of fuel is tax, so if the price of oil doubles to $130, price of fuel goes up about 50%, not 100%. Not exact, but you get the picture. Then you get a tranche of your favourite divi paying oilie that'll pay you your full fuel bill per year. Hey presto you're fully hedged and have fuel costs covered!

I fill up my old banger with the expensive diesel.Bloke in the garage always looks stunned given a tank is 10% of the car's value.

Any basment dweller got any knowledge on whether it's worht it?My mechanic says so but the hive mind here may have a more nuanced take.

[sancho panza]

26 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Stagflationary?

 

Interesting.SO oil isn't the only commodity ro rise before a recession..coindicence doesn't mean correlation etc

WHeat prices

https://www.macrotrends.net/2534/wheat-prices-historical-chart-data

[leonardratso]

44 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

WOlf has had some great data on declining retns in San Fran/New York etc and on rising rents in Cleveland and other forgotten cities.Hoem working etc etc

Working in the field I do,I can see Londinium depopulating quickly when people can swap a one bed flat for a four bed hosue in Northants/Leics.

I fill up my old banger with the expensive diesel.Bloke in the garage always looks stunned given a tank is 10% of the car's value.

Any basment dweller got any knowledge on whether it's worht it?My mechanic says so but the hive mind here may have a more nuanced take.

i half and half it, my DPF light likes to come on if i just use cheapo fuel all the time, and that then requires a swift hill climb in third at 60 to 70 mph to get the revs up and blow the fucker out. Its a real pain in the arse and wont do the car any good, happened maybe 2 or 3 times over the last couple of years, might just be a faulty sensor but goes away after a quick blast, seems to happen when i just let it stand for ages without running it or when it doesnt get a decent high speed run to get hot for a while. Piece of old shit would be fine if it didnt have all this gubbins emissions crap on it.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

i half and half it, my DPF light likes to come on if i just use cheapo fuel all the time, and that then requires a swift hill climb in third at 60 to 70 mph to get the revs up and blow the fucker out. Its a real pain in the arse and wont do the car any good, happened maybe 2 or 3 times over the last couple of years, might just be a faulty sensor but goes away after a quick blast, seems to happen when i just let it stand for ages without running it or when it doesnt get a decent high speed run to get hot for a while. Piece of old shit would be fine if it didnt have all this gubbins emissions crap on it.

 

Use this in the tank every 4000 miles,you can get it from small parts shops for around £6 or £7.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/DAE-Dae005-Diesel-System-Conditioner/dp/B01GCQJEMA

You can get the DPF cut out and mapped out if you can be arsed.

The little parts shops also sell this,add some in everytime you fill up,or every few times.It improves crap diesel to fantastic

 

[leonardratso]

best diesel;

[Barnsey]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

Use this in the tank every 4000 miles,you can get it from small parts shops for around £6 or £7.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/DAE-Dae005-Diesel-System-Conditioner/dp/B01GCQJEMA

You can get the DPF cut out and mapped out if you can be arsed.

The little parts shops also sell this,add some in everytime you fill up,or every few times.It improves crap diesel to fantastic

 

I'm a big fan of Millers Diesel Power Ecomax, 500ml bottle so 10 full tank doses, £1.30 a tank. Much more effective than paying for premium diesel. Great stuff, definitely not snake oil.

[Barnsey]

Don't underestimate those forced into saving for a year...

People of all ages desperate to get back to the way things were, even more so in the aftermath of a global health crisis during which many lost others, or came close to death themselves.

 

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Don't underestimate those forced into saving for a year...

People of all ages desperate to get back to the way things were, even more so in the aftermath of a global health crisis during which many lost others, or came close to death themselves.

 

This is my fear, one massive splurge before people realise they have no job to go back to.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Don't underestimate those forced into saving for a year...

People of all ages desperate to get back to the way things were, even more so in the aftermath of a global health crisis during which many lost others, or came close to death themselves.

 

A lot of people will be more aware of their mortality and thinking that they want to see the world before they die. Fair enough, if you have the money why not?

I wouldn't be booking a cruise as the rules in all the various destinations could change. Some of the people who were booked into cancelled cruises from this last year have credits to spend.

[nomadic]

17 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Exactly what I did and retired at 48. Why more people in London do not do this is beyond me. Where do you have in mind retiring to. My next step if my investments run good might be a small farm/holding.

If your investments go south then there is always Portugal while you have a spare €20k to buy a small holding. Weather is better too. 

[Barnsey]

Looking good peeps!

But first?

 

[DurhamBorn]

By users of global liquidity he means spending US dollars of course.In normal times they suck in printed dollars for oil and buy other goods or invest them.Its the way global growth works.Fed is the start of the chain,energy is next.Fed prints,it goes to energy producers,they spend,liquidity increases.When Fed prints but oil price is down hard they have to sell assets to buy goods.So they do use global liquidity then to consume without providing the counter asset ie oil.Liquidity is actually up a lot,but its sat in M1 so there is a draw in dollars in the system outside of M1 and yet to move into M3.Once it moves to M3 as it will,maybe not all as some excess savings are kept it will flow to the Saudis etc and they will then be spending those $s in the world economy.Consumers with M1 dont drive inflation,its what energy producers do with the $ when it moves to M3.M3 increasing is the increase on energy use.

[geordie_lurch]

XOM a thread favourite is about to head higher according to ZH here
 

Quote

Shares of the oil and gas giant spiked Monday pre-market after CNBC's David Faber reported that Jeff Ubben would be joining the company's board. In addition, Mike Angelakis - the former CFO of Comcast and a "green" activist - was also said to be joining the board. 

"Mike Angelakis, the chairman and chief executive officer of Atairos and former CFO of Comcast, is also joining the board," CNBC reported. According to Angelakis' bio, he "was the Chairman of the Board for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, a member of the Board of Directors of Duke Energy and Hewlett Packard Enterprises, and a trustee of Babson College."

So perhaps Exxon now has themselves a liaison for when the Federal Reserve focuses on fighting climate change.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

XOM a thread favourite is about to head higher according to ZH here
 

 

The unseen faces have talked all the muppets to sell the very stocks that are going to see all that printed money pass through.Those lovely woke funds have been had.Its getting a bit bullish though,might be another smackdown yet to shake out more weak hands.Its amazing how many will sell with a 15% profit after a wobble.

Copper has likely ran as China built out its power network during the pandemic,so that could top out soon,but that should then see gas demand increase with the lag.

[Bricks & Mortar]

Endeavour Silver numbers much improved.  Stock up 3% so far today.

http://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/03/01/2184067/0/en/Endeavour-Silver-Reports-19-9-Million-Earnings-in-the-Fourth-Quarter-2020-and-1-2-Million-Earnings-for-the-Full-Year-2020.html

[DurhamBorn]

Interesting day today.Had two job offers,both giving the usual talk before they got to salary.I told both i would only consider the jobs for 4 months at the end of the tax year so late autumn time as they were 30% too low minimum and so would only consider when i had a years tax allowance to use up.Silence,then the usual,oh but there are prospects .Of course i dont want a job,not at the start of a tax year or maybe ever again,but i think its good to tell employers they are way under the needed rate.Of course the problem is others will take anything.

Loads of employers wanting staff in manufacturing up here.One iv been tipped off about have closed their French factory and sending work here.Yank firm,they dont like French labour laws.

Hoefully we will see wage inflation here in the north soon.

[Popuplights]

8 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

This is my fear, one massive splurge before people realise they have no job to go back to.

Sounds like me!

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 up.Silence,then the usual,oh but there are prospects .Of course i dont want a job,not at the start of a tax year or maybe ever again,but i think its good to tell employers they are way under the needed rate. Of course the problem is others will take anything.

Exactly Mr DB, never really wanted a job in my entire life, as i contractor i've been threatened with the line of not being employed on the next job unless i dance to some bellends tune.

Which is my cue for walking off the job and leaving them in the shit.

However i am on a great number right now working for sound and intelligent people, so hopefully will keep in with them for the next decade until i retire from working the equivalent of less than of 1 day a week!

Kind of empowering that they know you don't give a shit, well it would be if i gave a shit about being empowered.

 

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Interesting day today.Had two job offers,both giving the usual talk before they got to salary.I told both i would only consider the jobs for 4 months at the end of the tax year so late autumn time as they were 30% too low minimum and so would only consider when i had a years tax allowance to use up.Silence,then the usual,oh but there are prospects .Of course i dont want a job,not at the start of a tax year or maybe ever again,but i think its good to tell employers they are way under the needed rate.Of course the problem is others will take anything.

Loads of employers wanting staff in manufacturing up here.One iv been tipped off about have closed their French factory and sending work here.Yank firm,they dont like French labour laws.

Hoefully we will see wage inflation here in the north soon.

Bloody Brexit and the new manufacturing jobs and moving jobs from the EU to the UK.......oh, wait.