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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Yadda yadda yadda
3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Anyone else feel mild disappointment at the prospect of not being contrarian any more?!

Whilst it is enjoyable you only want to be contrarian at the right times, when things are changing. Everyone else joining in will help to make our assets overvalued. At some point it will again be time to be contrarian.

Might see people pile in, followed by a pullback and lots of them selling out again. Following DB's mantra that the market will hurt the most people. So we may be discredited yet for another burst of contrarianness before it truly becomes mainstream.

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8 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Whilst it is enjoyable you only want to be contrarian at the right times, when things are changing. Everyone else joining in will help to make our assets overvalued. At some point it will again be time to be contrarian.

Might see people pile in, followed by a pullback and lots of them selling out again. Following DB's mantra that the market will hurt the most people. So we may be discredited yet for another burst of contrarianness before it truly becomes mainstream.

I will change direction back to contrarian investing and sell my PMs in the ‘unloved’ FAANGs and tech stocks when I see gold/silver vending machines and ‘cash 4 gold’ shops on every run down high street.

When 70+ year olds are paying to attend seminars on blockchains and crypto I also know the BTC will be at a precarious point for government regulation. I will however still be holding Chainlink ;)

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10 hours ago, wherebee said:

My wife and I have specifically talked about her getting a council job again, for this very reason.  Public sector will do very nicely until woke and broke are seen as the same bad thing.

Mine is a nurse and worked in the private sector,but left and went to the council where they respond to people who have falls etc in their own homes.Most of the people she works with take between 1 month and 3 months sick every year,fully paid.Her bosses have the best jobs going,they really do do nothing at all.She has a Sipp im structuring so she can use that and take no lump from council pension,just take the full monthly income.Her bosses are usually too busy looking after their BTLs.

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Bricks & Mortar
1 hour ago, Loki said:

Very cool:D

Actually @DurhamBorn aka Mr Diesel what do you think of the 3.0 D4D in the Hilux? Part of the reason i want a petrol truck is the big bills diesels can potentially incur (injectors, common rail, turbo, DPF. etc)

i don't do the miles to warrant a diesel either and petrol is slightly cheaper

Ha! Same here. 
Need a new truck because the old one has the tin worm.  Considering a Toyota Dyna.  Wondering if I can import one from Japan, or if shipping costs will kill me.  All the Dynas made in Portugal were 3.0D4D.  But if I import from Japan, I could get a 2.0 petrol instead and save several grand.    Does about 6000 miles a year. 

So, I'm thinking the diesel might do 25mpg, and the petrol 15mpg.  Present day, the petrol costs £750 a year more.  I guess that would increase with inflation, but so too would the cost of injectors, DPF's, fuel pumps and the like.

In practice, I'll probably just buy a truck, petrol or diesel, if it looks good condition, and especially if its setup the way I want it (with a tipper or tail-lift).

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ThoughtCriminal
17 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Ha! Same here. 
Need a new truck because the old one has the tin worm.  Considering a Toyota Dyna.  Wondering if I can import one from Japan, or if shipping costs will kill me.  All the Dynas made in Portugal were 3.0D4D.  But if I import from Japan, I could get a 2.0 petrol instead and save several grand.    Does about 6000 miles a year. 

So, I'm thinking the diesel might do 25mpg, and the petrol 15mpg.  Present day, the petrol costs £750 a year more.  I guess that would increase with inflation, but so too would the cost of injectors, DPF's, fuel pumps and the like.

In practice, I'll probably just buy a truck, petrol or diesel, if it looks good condition, and especially if its setup the way I want it (with a tipper or tail-lift).

Buy through salvage site, saves thousands. 

 

I'm currently bidding on nissan navara, top spec, worth 18k "straight", 15 repaired. I'll have it on the road for 11500 if I win it. 

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Slightly OT but in my experience, almost all cars that have "issues" just haven't been looked after. Fuel pumps fail when run dry. DPFs when cars are used for school runs only. I get friends and relatives asking me the most basic questions about cars all the time. One of the Mrs' mates brought a Skoda hatchback round last year, as it was making "a clanking noise". It didn't have any oil in it - engine ruined. "Oh I wondered why it always left a puddle in the road", she said. People expect cars to behave like any old white good nowadays.

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32 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Ha! Same here. 
Need a new truck because the old one has the tin worm.  Considering a Toyota Dyna.  Wondering if I can import one from Japan, or if shipping costs will kill me.  All the Dynas made in Portugal were 3.0D4D.  But if I import from Japan, I could get a 2.0 petrol instead and save several grand.    Does about 6000 miles a year. 

So, I'm thinking the diesel might do 25mpg, and the petrol 15mpg.  Present day, the petrol costs £750 a year more.  I guess that would increase with inflation, but so too would the cost of injectors, DPF's, fuel pumps and the like.

In practice, I'll probably just buy a truck, petrol or diesel, if it looks good condition, and especially if its setup the way I want it (with a tipper or tail-lift).

Give JDM auction watch a shout and we'll arrange a group buy:Jumping:

 

But yeah my thinking is the exact same as yours.

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42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Mine is a nurse and worked in the private sector,but left and went to the council where they respond to people who have falls etc in their own homes.Most of the people she works with take between 1 month and 3 months sick every year,fully paid.Her bosses have the best jobs going,they really do do nothing at all.She has a Sipp im structuring so she can use that and take no lump from council pension,just take the full monthly income.Her bosses are usually too busy looking after their BTLs.

If she's not planning on taking any of her council pension as a lump sum it may be possible for her to make AVCs, and to take the whole AVC pot tax free when the council pension goes into payment on the basis that the tax free 25% is worked out as 25% of the main pension plus the AVCs.

https://www.lgpsmember.org/more/AVCoptions.php

 

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OK, this is getting silly.  Portfolio up another 4% today.  Almost 17% up since 1st Jan, whilst the rest of the market has gone sideways.

Too much, too fast.  Making me jittery that it's all going to crash and L'll be full of non sellers remorse

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2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Whilst it is enjoyable you only want to be contrarian at the right times, when things are changing. Everyone else joining in will help to make our assets overvalued. At some point it will again be time to be contrarian.

Might see people pile in, followed by a pullback and lots of them selling out again. Following DB's mantra that the market will hurt the most people. So we may be discredited yet for another burst of contrarianness before it truly becomes mainstream.

Iv found over the years being contrarian is very difficult and it was when i started to put the work into a macro roadmap that i was able to remove most emotion from it.As you say its also important that we make our money when for a while we arent contrarian,when sentiment turns our way.I guess its a bit like going to the races.We get there first,to get the best spots etc and miss the traffic,and we leave before the last race,because we know its a nightmare leaving with the crowds.

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Yadda yadda yadda
2 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Well look at that @DurhamBorn

 

Darlo. Interesting. Fast trains to London. I don't really know much about the town though, only been there a couple of times.

15 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv found over the years being contrarian is very difficult and it was when i started to put the work into a macro roadmap that i was able to remove most emotion from it.As you say its also important that we make our money when for a while we arent contrarian,when sentiment turns our way.I guess its a bit like going to the races.We get there first,to get the best spots etc and miss the traffic,and we leave before the last race,because we know its a nightmare leaving with the crowds.

What, you don't chase your losses on the last race!

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3 hours ago, nomadic said:

I haven't paid council tax for years. Vanlife in the UK and living overseas.

Being homeless has some advantages.

Thinking about doing this if I don't buy my place cheap. I have a couple of places to stay when it's too cold or I don't fancy it. It's my plan B.

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"We want to let you know that from 31 March 2021, the price of some of your BT products and services will increase in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rate of inflation (0.6%), plus 3.9%"

Drip, drip, drip...

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Yadda yadda yadda
14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well i might go back into employment,macro strategist for the treasury in Darlo xD,can someone forward Dishi the thread.

Sorry, no. Fixing the country goes against policy.

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24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well i might go back into employment,macro strategist for the treasury in Darlo xD,can someone forward Dishi the thread.

And I've got Kendrick's housing mob moving to nearby Wolverhampton

 

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sancho panza

PM miners coma scores on the doors.Interesting to see the FCF some of the mid tiers and up are kicking off.Incredible.

Ref the balance sheets,it's like noone and his dog have been lending them money for a decade.

Obviously normal spray n pray rules apply.I still score teh sector a 4 as whilst share prices have risen since 2018,the underlying has too.

I've had a reorganisation of our PM miners in my mind for some time-particualrly hiving off the royalty co.s, and this is food for thought.Particularly more Barrick/KGC/EGO/AU/B2G/Yamana. @Cattle Prod mentioned KGC the other day and it doesn't dissappoint

Ref some of the chart scores,I debated at length on barrick and Kinross as they were on the cusp of 4's/3's.erred on side of caution,not that it matters much when you look at the income and cashflow scores.

 

@JMD Silvercrest/Mag Silver don't have recurring revenues and coma scoring only really works imho opinion on a sector with revenues/profits/losses/cashflfows.Fortuna and any otehrs without data haven't been put onto marketwatch yet.

 

 

Share                         Price             Date           Chart   Income  BS    CF         Sector     SCS

Agnico USD 60.61 23/02/21 1 2 4 2 4 13
Alamos USD 7.55 03/03/21 3 4 5 3 4 19
Anglogold USD 20.89 23/02/21 3 5 3 5 4 20
B2Gold USD 4.55 03/03/21 2 5 5 5 4 21
Barrick USD 18.67 01/03/21 3 4 4 5 4 20
Buenaventura             4 4
Eldorado USD 11.01 03/03/21 3 4 5 5 4 21
FNV             4 4
Freeport USD 37.55 23/02/21 1 2 2 2 4 11
Fresnillo GBP 9.42 03/03/21 3 3 4 3 4 17
Gold fields USD 8.69 23/02/21 2 5 3 4 4 18
Gold resource USD 2.69 01/03/21 4 1 5 3 4 17
Harmony USD 4.05 23/02/21 4 1 3 3 4 15
Hochschild GBP 2.13 01/03/21 4 2 3 5 4 18
IAM gold USD 3.02 01/03/21 3 3 4 2 4 16
Kinross USD 6.73 23/02/21 3 5 4 5 4 21
Kirkland USD 33.24 01/03/21 2 4 5 4 4 19
New gold USD 1.65 01/03/21 4 1 2 1 4 12
Newcrest USD 20.04 23/02/21 3 3 4 3 4 17
Newmont USD 54.52 01/03/21 1 4 4 4 4 17
Oceana CAD 1.78 01/03/21 4 1 4 1 4 14
Osisko Gold Royalty USD 9.80 01/03/21 3 2 4 1 4 14
Pan African GBP 00.184 23/02/21 2 5 3 3 4 17
Pan American USD 32.18 01/03/21 1 3 5 3 4 16
Petropavlosk             4 4
Polymetal             4 5
Royal Gold USD 103.29 01/03/21 1 2 5 2 4 14
Sandstorm USD 6.07 01/03/21 3 2 5 4 4 18
Sibanye USD 18.91 01/03/21 1 2 3 5 4 15
SSR USD 13.87 01/03/21 3 3 4 4 4 18
Wesdome             4 4
Wheaton             4 4
Yamana USD 4.015 01/03/21 4 4 3 5 4 20
                 
                 
                 
Silvercrest                
First Majestic UD 17.28 03/03/21 1 2 4 2 4 13
Endeavour Silver CAD 7.94 03/03/21 1 2 5 2 4 14
Fortuna Silver CAD 9.33 03/03/21 1          
Mag Silver USD 18.71 03/03/21 1         1
Silvercorp USD 5.69 03/03/21 2 3 4 3 4 16
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Allowances froze until 2026 is a massive kick in the guts for ordinary workers.Huge.Obvious they are going for inflation to decimate the allowances.

The corporation tax increase will see huge moves offshore.

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6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

PM miners coma scores on the doors.Interesting to see the FCF some of the mid tiers and up are kicking off.Incredible.

Ref the balance sheets,it's like noone and his dog have been lending them money for a decade.

Obviously normal spray n pray rules apply.I still score teh sector a 4 as whilst share prices have risen since 2018,the underlying has too.

I've had a reorganisation of our PM miners in my mind for some time-particualrly hiving off the royalty co.s, and this is food for thought.Particularly more Barrick/KGC/EGO/AU/B2G/Yamana. @Cattle Prod mentioned KGC the other day and it doesn't dissappoint

Ref some of the chart scores,I debated at length on barrick and Kinross as they were on the cusp of 4's/3's.erred on side of caution,not that it matters much when you look at the income and cashflow scores.

 

@JMD Silvercrest/Mag Silver don't have recurring revenues and coma scoring only really works imho opinion on a sector with revenues/profits/losses/cashflfows.Fortuna and any otehrs without data haven't been put onto marketwatch yet.

 

 

Share                         Price             Date           Chart   Income  BS    CF         Sector     SCS

Agnico USD 60.61 23/02/21 1 2 4 2 4 13
Alamos USD 7.55 03/03/21 3 4 5 3 4 19
Anglogold USD 20.89 23/02/21 3 5 3 5 4 20
B2Gold USD 4.55 03/03/21 2 5 5 5 4 21
Barrick USD 18.67 01/03/21 3 4 4 5 4 20
Buenaventura             4 4
Eldorado USD 11.01 03/03/21 3 4 5 5 4 21
FNV             4 4
Freeport USD 37.55 23/02/21 1 2 2 2 4 11
Fresnillo GBP 9.42 03/03/21 3 3 4 3 4 17
Gold fields USD 8.69 23/02/21 2 5 3 4 4 18
Gold resource USD 2.69 01/03/21 4 1 5 3 4 17
Harmony USD 4.05 23/02/21 4 1 3 3 4 15
Hochschild GBP 2.13 01/03/21 4 2 3 5 4 18
IAM gold USD 3.02 01/03/21 3 3 4 2 4 16
Kinross USD 6.73 23/02/21 3 5 4 5 4 21
Kirkland USD 33.24 01/03/21 2 4 5 4 4 19
New gold USD 1.65 01/03/21 4 1 2 1 4 12
Newcrest USD 20.04 23/02/21 3 3 4 3 4 17
Newmont USD 54.52 01/03/21 1 4 4 4 4 17
Oceana CAD 1.78 01/03/21 4 1 4 1 4 14
Osisko Gold Royalty USD 9.80 01/03/21 3 2 4 1 4 14
Pan African GBP 00.184 23/02/21 2 5 3 3 4 17
Pan American USD 32.18 01/03/21 1 3 5 3 4 16
Petropavlosk             4 4
Polymetal             4 5
Royal Gold USD 103.29 01/03/21 1 2 5 2 4 14
Sandstorm USD 6.07 01/03/21 3 2 5 4 4 18
Sibanye USD 18.91 01/03/21 1 2 3 5 4 15
SSR USD 13.87 01/03/21 3 3 4 4 4 18
Wesdome             4 4
Wheaton             4 4
Yamana USD 4.015 01/03/21 4 4 3 5 4 20
                 
                 
                 
Silvercrest                
First Majestic UD 17.28 03/03/21 1 2 4 2 4 13
Endeavour Silver CAD 7.94 03/03/21 1 2 5 2 4 14
Fortuna Silver CAD 9.33 03/03/21 1          
Mag Silver USD 18.71 03/03/21 1         1
Silvercorp USD 5.69 03/03/21 2 3 4 3 4 16

Could you remind me how you evaluate the Income part? It seems awfully low for HMY but it depends on criteria you're using.

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1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

F***ING hell, income tax threshold frozen for 4 years! From the final increase next year to 2026.

Hitting low paid workers hard.Crazy.Most dont understand it though so are lambs to the slaughter.5 years freeze does huge damage.

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