Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

8 hours ago, kibuc said:

"We want to let you know that from 31 March 2021, the price of some of your BT products and services will increase in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rate of inflation (0.6%), plus 3.9%"

Drip, drip, drip...

Wierd.  Oh by inflation.....and then well, we'll gross that up by 650%.  Like we'll explain 13% of the increase and put the other 87% down as "other".  Talk about taking the proverbial!

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well i might go back into employment,macro strategist for the treasury in Darlo ,can someone forward Dishi the thread.

Money, our money, really is no object for them.  Like the BBC.  Will they also be flying in the programme manager in charge of the move from the US each week (allegedly)?  Will people move at great expense or will they just hire more locally? 

Unbelievable from what was once the Conservative party.  Well, tbh, not any more.  No way all Ricky's spending is going to get paid back.  They have to be planning on the basis of the end of the current fiat and/or enslavjng the plebs under a burden of debt they created for us.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The corporation tax increase will see huge moves offshore.

If the increases ever happen.  This may be no more than placating the markets for now, whereas freezing the personal allowances is real.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,its amazing how the macro has forced their hands.We knew all this before anyone even considered it.Our forecasts would be laughed at.Better though, the roadmap is fully in play now,we need to focus and outflank this inflation and come out in front.

 

The details about these freeports will be interesting to see if they are like others around the world.  Many are essentially autonomous enclaves governed and controlled by the corporations.  Essentially, they have no/little meaningful UK sovereignty.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm beginnign to see a lot of middle class people I know turning to Lockdown sceptics.They know this no longer makes much sense.The govt can't hide the all cause mortality figures from the UK/Sweden/Florida/Italy/California/New York.

Had to laugh this morning listening to Julia Hartley-Brewer.  Lost interest since she became so "accommodating" but the frustration got the better of her during one interview when, exacerbated, she stormed "your just making these figures up now aren't you"!  Or summing like that!

[DurhamBorn]

39 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

RE BT et al;

(Sharecast News) - BT Group shares surged on Wednesday after chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a new investment tax super deduction policy in the budget.
Under the scheme, companies investing in new plant and machinery assets in the next two years will be able to cut their tax bills by 130% of the cost.

The super deduction will allow businesses to cut their tax bill by up to 25p for every £1 they invest.

BT, which is currently investing millions of pounds to upgrade its UK broadband network to fibre optic, rallied on the news and by 1510 GMT, the shares were trading up 6.2% at 133.65p.

Neil Wilson, chief market analyst at Markets.com, said: "BT has emerged as one of the big winners from the budget as the super deduction tax relief will allow it to offset its fibre infrastructure spending."

He added: "Any capital intensive projects should be winners."

 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, JMD said:

Speak for yourself!! ...For example, some bloke on here - 'Harley' I think hs called (don't think he posts here much(!)) - has recently asked on here for votes just to get him to 10k reps. I point blank refused to play along - how's that for contrarionism?!?                                                                                                                                       Btw, you'll find Harley's post request on the previous page to this one (whilst there, and in case you dought me, you'll note that I haven't voted). ...However, am I just double-bluffing and is this just a blatant ploy attempt to ramp Harley's rep count? You bet it is!! ...Harley is currently stuck on 10,018, but i expect him to surpass this, with you lot sending him on his own personal melt-up before midnight. So get voting, you have been warned!!!                 (my contrarion principles, prevent me of course from participating)

Sorry, missed that.  Been too busy catching up on the dirt in Super Stealth!

And how about this for contrarian - my 10,000 target was actually my get out of posting card!  

Time to seek new challenges!

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sorry, missed that.  Been too busy catching up on the dirt in Super Stealth!

And how about this for contrarian - my 10,000 target was actually my get out of posting card!  

Time to seek new challenges!

Your needed,so forget about that if you dont mind.

[Harley]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Your needed,so forget about that if you dont mind.

Alas I've been told I'm going to be terminated for ignoring that preamble on Super Stealth about keeping it secret.

I just wanted to say

[Agent ZigZag]

The budget today was great as they have finally let the cat out of the bag and laid out the road map for us all.. They have now told us all where the powers that be want the economy and the money to go and where the money will be be directed and spent. I  am now very excited for the future and more relaxed. Remember that the system we live under was designed for them and not for us. So we can all plan accordingly.

I will now crack on with my part conversion of my property to an Air BnB that will be a 1000sqtf  apartment and my second line of potential income is a mobile hot dog fan.( Well the bacon buttie man)  

I had the mind set of this thread ten years ago and was completely wrong on timing and lost money on it because I was arrogant. Now wiser and more mature and grown up here we are. Forget all the small print and negative aspects especially about house prices, that is a southern problem only . In my opinion we are going to have a northern boom, although I must confess they will be robbing Peter to pay Paul for it all.

PS. All you southerners moaning about house prices. Well now is the time to move up north like I did and get on with it and stop moaning. Unless you think you are so special.

 

[23rdian]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Exactly,they have a massive incentive to create inflation just as we always said on here.Freezing the lower allowance is disgusting.Hitting mostly the lowest paid who dont have children.I think they will suffer hugely from this.

I hope so, this particular government really does deserve it.

[Barnsey]

FYI (eyes on China)

Remember they're already well through their pent up industrial demand surge, surely not coming to an end already?

How long will it take us to burn through savings?

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I posted about this the other day in a "How stupid is this bullshit?" kind of way, but after a bit of research it looks like it's rapidly going mainstream. 

 

I seriously think things like this are signals of how fucked up things are. 

 

NFTs make CDOs look like sound financial instruments. 

 

I'm getting strong dotcom vibes. 

[Barnsey]

Something really doesn't sit right with me about this, like many of us on here expect, it'll be inflation and wage increase battles which stoke the fires for 2024. Inflation has been so low for so long, many just can't seem to see the risks ahead.

I do think the super deductable tax regime is strong policy, and can see it being extended well beyond expiry.

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, Hancock said:

OK so the Tories have now spent 400bln, but there doesnt seem to be much set aside for road building, house building etc etc... which is the far quicker route to job creation.

Is this likely to begin, as 15 Billion or so for greeny issues doesnt seem to cut it.

Spent or squandered?

[Jesus Wept]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I posted about this the other day in a "How stupid is this bullshit?" kind of way, but after a bit of research it looks like it's rapidly going mainstream. 

 

I seriously think things like this are signals of how fucked up things are. 

 

NFTs make CDOs look like sound financial instruments. 

 

I'm getting strong dotcom vibes. 

Shoe shine moment. 

A “non fungible token” 

For the love of god..... Jesus wept.....

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Shoe shine moment. 

A “non fungible token” 

For the love of god..... Jesus wept.....

Same idea as a photograph signed by a famous photographer, 1 of a limited run of 100.

Some value, but not really.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I posted about this the other day in a "How stupid is this bullshit?" kind of way, but after a bit of research it looks like it's rapidly going mainstream. 

 

I seriously think things like this are signals of how fucked up things are. 

 

NFTs make CDOs look like sound financial instruments. 

 

I'm getting strong dotcom vibes. 

Very strong dotcom vibes, along with crypto mania, Robin Hood, gamestop and tesla feels like the later stage of the dotcom boom

[MrXxxx]

17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The problem is with the coma scores that they don't really assess individual company potential beyond the chart score which gives an approxiamtion of it's current value(obviously imho natch).

We have largish psotions in a lot of goldies already-although we sold around 30% (by invesment price)of our holdings in Sept(Although I kept the $1-60 HMY).But looking at these scores EGO(we're alreayd in at $8),B2G($2-75 or so),Yamana($3),KGC $3.75 or so) and barrick($15 or so) could all warrnat further invesment as we move to a more difficult phase in terms of the broader investment outlook.

As i've said previously,I'm looking to offload the royalty companies  we own Osisko and Sand and then redeploy that here into the above.

Gradually,our protfolio in PM's is evolving into some solid mid tiers and above,with the leverage being run in some chunkier than they should be psotions in Rio2/Minera Alamos/New Gold.

You know anthing that's not on the list that's worth a look K?

What do people think of the etf miner funds I.e. gdgb, gjgb?

[RWJ]

Did anyone catch Sunak's comment about pension funds now being allowed to invest in riskier securities?  I think it was related to green projects.  I was only half listening but sounded like he slipped it in and quickly moved on, which raised alarm bells for me.  

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/03/03/budget-2021-govt-to-reform-investment-rules-for-pension-schemes/

[AWW]

.

[AWW]

 

8 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

All you southerners moaning about house prices. Well now is the time to move up north like I did and get on with it and stop moaning. Unless you think you are so special.

I don't think there's anything particularly special about wanting to stay where your business is, your family, your friends and your kids' friends are. I'm speaking for my Mrs here really, as I'm from the north myself and wouldn't mind moving back, but she was born and bred in London and has lived here for 40 years. It's not her fault that successive governments decimated wages, created a housing shortage and blew a credit bubble.

I mean, you wouldn't tell people who can't afford a house in the north to get over themselves and move to Bulgaria.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I posted about this the other day in a "How stupid is this bullshit?" kind of way, but after a bit of research it looks like it's rapidly going mainstream. 

 

I seriously think things like this are signals of how fucked up things are. 

 

NFTs make CDOs look like sound financial instruments. 

 

I'm getting strong dotcom vibes. 

This doesn't seem as daft as it sounds. It is just a modern version of the limited edition album with extra artwork and bonus tracks. Lots of people don't own music now, they stream it. If you pay for a download it is tied to your account. You don't really own it. This you do. You can sell it, which you can't do with other downloads.

Of course it will probably be very expensive. It looks like there is some sort of clawback where at least some of the resale profit goes back to the band. Then there is the huge use of electricity to run the Blockchain if this becomes big. Just buy more energy companies.

It isn't for me and there are dotcom vibes about lots of things at the moment 

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Spent or squandered?

Squandered, but that is the point, to get reflation part of the equation is a need for job creation and with most the money the govt can print/borrow now already gone, there seems to be very little left for infrastructure projects where people to dig holes and others to fill them ... the only needless jobs we have are of people sitting behind desks in the public sector.

[Cosmic]

40 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Then there is the huge use of electricity to run the Blockchain if this becomes big. Just buy more energy companies.

This is the big thing that just doesn't sit right about the whole blockchain argument, especially along side the climate change panic, the colossal amount of energy that goes in to it just seems to be largely ignored...