Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

Reminder - Tax day, 23 March 2021: https://www.charitytaxgroup.org.uk/news-post/2021/tax-day-follow-budget/

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Squandered, but that is the point, to get reflation part of the equation is a need for job creation and with most the money the govt can print/borrow now already gone, there seems to be very little left for infrastructure projects where people to dig holes and others to fill them ... the only one needless jobs we have are of people sitting behind desks in the public sector.

The idea appears to be that the Government will subsidise business to build infrastructure. Digital infrastructure will be the likes of BT using the super deduction. Free ports needs clarification but that should see investment in ports, industrial units and distribution. There will be a UK infrastructure bank based in Leeds. More info required.

Nothing on roads and rail.

[planit]

12 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

This is the big thing that just doesn't sit right about the whole blockchain argument, especially along side the climate change panic, the colossal amount of energy that goes in to it just seems to be largely ignored...

There is no reason why running the blockchain and 'signing' the transactions should use huge amounts of energy.

Mining on the other hand is a complete waste of resources and should/could be banned if we are in a 'climate crisis'

 

Blockchain is a way of doing things like posting an invoice.

Bitcoin will become worthless if a better option comes for storing value, like emailing invoices instead of posting. Who posts invoices any more.

There is no way I would use Bitcoin to store value if there was another 'Bitcoin' that was backed by a basket of  investments or commodities that was publicly available to view and scrutinise.

So one way of governments to put an end to Bitcoin is to offer a better alternative (which they obviously won't do, they will act like a spoilt kid losing a board game and just pick up the whole game and throw it in the bin).

 

Sorry, I will give myself 50 lashes for derailing the thread with Shitcoin talk. Please do not reply, I am meant to be revising 

[Talking Monkey]

33 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Squandered, but that is the point, to get reflation part of the equation is a need for job creation and with most the money the govt can print/borrow now already gone, there seems to be very little left for infrastructure projects where people to dig holes and others to fill them ... the only needless jobs we have are of people sitting behind desks in the public sector.

It does look like it has been squandered, that borrowing could have been put to far better use setting the country up with work class infrastructure, cutting edge hospitals, that type of thing

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

What do people think of the etf miner funds I.e. gdgb, gjgb?

They’re the GBP versions of the GDX and GDXJ right? 

[Hancock]

29 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The idea appears to be that the Government will subsidise business to build infrastructure. Digital infrastructure will be the likes of BT using the super deduction. Free ports needs clarification but that should see investment in ports, industrial units and distribution. There will be a UK infrastructure bank based in Leeds. More info required.

Nothing on roads and rail.

But on the other hand if interest rates spike and credit is limited then private companies wont have the means to borrow or even borrow recklessly as the govt can.

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

PS. All you southerners moaning about house prices. Well now is the time to move up north like I did and get on with it and stop moaning. Unless you think you are so special.

 

I think we all would given the chance. DB’s done such a good job of advertising Durham he may really just have a job on the tourist advisory board and has been pulling the wool over our eyes all this time with this investing malarkey. I mean £2.15 pints and fish and chips for under a fiver, I’m already sold.

We’d probably all be property hoarders rivalling Furgus Wilson buying up all the under £100k houses for friends and family so it may as well be renamed Dosbodham. 

Unfortunately unless I trade in the other half, I wouldn’t be able to get her to move from the south due to friends and family. My job would be transferable anywhere although less money obviously but that wouldn’t be an issue, but I physically need to be there (I could be called anywhere on site across London). If I could work remotely I’d have a lot more options.

As it stands the plan is to outpace the system and embark on a very specific inflation aimed FIRE approach. Either that or the back up plan to get rid of all savings and investments into an overpriced shared ownership (rental side covered by government), go part-time, have another child and join the tax credits brigade until pension age.

If I did do that I would advertise it as far and wide so others realised they could do the same. The younger generation really need to realise to refuse to play the rigged game. The government have disgusted me with the budget (although we all knew it was coming). The slogan helping turn generation rent into generation buy would make me livid if I cared anymore. It should be ‘actively destroying generation rent to save our skins’.  The one plus point is even the general public have started to wake up and see straight through it.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Did anyone catch Sunak's comment about pension funds now being allowed to invest in riskier securities?  I think it was related to green projects.  I was only half listening but sounded like he slipped it in and quickly moved on, which raised alarm bells for me.  

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/03/03/budget-2021-govt-to-reform-investment-rules-for-pension-schemes/

Its to allow pension schemes to charge more so they can invest in assets that cost more to hold.So NEST can sell a cleaners shares in their pension in Bp at £2 and invest it some woke project and charge them extra fees.

Of course it also means they can invest in lots of different areas.It is another way on the roadmap though because it means less bonds,more real assets and thats the story of the cycle.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

17 minutes ago, Hancock said:

But on the other hand if interest rates spike and credit is limited then private companies wont have the means to borrow or even borrow recklessly as the govt can.

There is a limited window whilst interest rates are low. That affects the Government too. By subsidising industry to borrow they should get leverage on their portion. Risk that industry doesn't increase investment beyond planned levels. However, mitigated by time limited subsidy. Should bring investment forward.

I would like to see more Government infrastructure spending too. This is either a clever way to maximise the spending by incentivising business or a clever way to give money to mates and get nice jobs later. Might even be both.

[C-gull]

2 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

What do people think of the etf miner funds I.e. gdgb, gjgb?

I've been suggested to take a look at GDXJ on here in the past

[nomadic]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

This doesn't seem as daft as it sounds. It is just a modern version of the limited edition album with extra artwork and bonus tracks. Lots of people don't own music now, they stream it. If you pay for a download it is tied to your account. You don't really own it. This you do. You can sell it, which you can't do with other downloads.

Of course it will probably be very expensive. It looks like there is some sort of clawback where at least some of the resale profit goes back to the band. Then there is the huge use of electricity to run the Blockchain if this becomes big. Just buy more energy companies.

It isn't for me and there are dotcom vibes about lots of things at the moment 

I am going to be dabbling with NFT and digital art. Will report back if I achieve any success!

I do like these new opportunities that come along once in a while. Could be very profitable for early adopters.

I was early into selling on the web. I set up a site where businesses could accept credit card payments online in 2001. I did exceptionally well until the payment clearance company pulled the plug on me!

[DurhamBorn]

As @Lightscribe says its not easy to just up sticks and move north for a lot of people and thats fully understandable.However for anyone who maybe could you should really consider it hard and move quickly if you can.Darlington is a prime candidate because of its transort links.It sits on the A1,the A66 and the East coast mainline and has an airport that takes around 10 minutes to get to.My area of Bishop Auckland and then Durham itself are also great areas.Id avoid all the old pit villages.They are dirt cheap but they have low level problems and being new and southern you wont be able to go around and thump people.

If i was looking to the coast id buy now in Redcar.Its not as well linked as Darlington,but you have a beautiful coast heading south like Whitby etc and its minutes from the A19 and then the A1 from there.Massive investment is going to go in right on the doorstep.It has 2 train stations and the area around the racecourse and also where the Redcar east train satation is are good areas.

There is also north of Teesside,places like Sedgefield,and south of Darlington,more expensive,but lovely places like Richmond.

We have known on this thread for a good few years what was coming,but the budget had shown we are right.Direction of travel is clear.

 

[DoINeedOne]

Worth listening to it all but the few minutes from the time stamp posted just shows how everything is fucked with low interest rates 

10M in 2 year treasuries in 2007 earned 500k interest a year

Few years later that same 10M earned just 13k

[Dogtania]

Obviously not looking for advice and sorry for not searching hard enough, there is so much here and I've only scanned a few pages back to see any mention.

A while back when I ducked into here I saw an oil fund that seemed to take a broad swath of companies covering a lot.  I can't recall the name but think it was discussed in relation to the fund that may have been closing(?) Ninety one enhanced natural resources.

Just trying to set and forget whilst taking a bit of a punt on oil despite the headwinds against.

 

[Hardhat]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

What do people think of the etf miner funds I.e. gdgb, gjgb?

Solid way to get exposure to PM miners, track the gold/silver price, but probably won't provide fireworks like individual miners might without massive moves in the price of PMs.

[BearingUp]

Re the move north from south, we did it 20 years ago and have never regretted it. First 2 years were in Durham, which is superb, but a bit pricey compared to the likes of Darlo. I was self employed with most of my contracts still ‘darn sarth’, but dead easy to get to London in under 3 hours on the ECML. 
 
We live in Yorkshire now where there are loads of great, well priced communities, although parts of as the Golden Triangle based around Otley, North Leeds and Harrogate can be a bit pricey and a bit too posh for my liking.

Tough call to move to an area away from family and friends, but you may find the genuine friendliness of your new community can more than compensate. I believe we have a gradient of friendliness running through the county with the NE at a 10, Yorkshire a 7 and London and the SE pretty close to zero.

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

More than half live off the state,benefits and wages.Most dont understand tax allowances and fiscal drag.Lambs to the slaughter.Luckily they left pensions and ISAs alone and we can leverage their inflation.

Its prob as a result of the half finished TC changes  from Gidiot.

He raised the tax free earning limit high. The got blocked on TC/UC reforms.

What UKGOV needs to do is withdraw access to bennies from the non Brits.

Start charging them for public services.

UK has ~12m money sink benefits to get rid of.

Levying charges for access to schooling could raise a lot of money.

After that, they can start dropping the youngest UC/TC hcild age to 11 and raise the hours to qualify.

This stuff should have happened in 2010.

 

[Lightscribe]

12 minutes ago, Dogtania said:

Obviously not looking for advice and sorry for not searching hard enough, there is so much here and I've only scanned a few pages back to see any mention.

A while back when I ducked into here I saw an oil fund that seemed to take a broad swath of companies covering a lot.  I can't recall the name but think it was discussed in relation to the fund that may have been closing(?) Ninety one enhanced natural resources.

Just trying to set and forget whilst taking a bit of a punt on oil despite the headwinds against.

 

Guinness global energy - class x. Already up on the funds I’ve invested as a catch all. Hat tip CP.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, C-gull said:

I've been suggested to take a look at GDXJ on here in the past

I sold a bunch of GDXJ when it hit a top of around 60.  Now down in the 40's.  It did nothing for years, then more than doubled, then dropped back.  If gold does boom, I'd expect it to hit 100+.  but that could be a week away or 10 years away...

[spygirl]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

As @Lightscribe says its not easy to just up sticks and move north for a lot of people and thats fully understandable.However for anyone who maybe could you should really consider it hard and move quickly if you can.Darlington is a prime candidate because of its transort links.It sits on the A1,the A66 and the East coast mainline and has an airport that takes around 10 minutes to get to.My area of Bishop Auckland and then Durham itself are also great areas.Id avoid all the old pit villages.They are dirt cheap but they have low level problems and being new and southern you wont be able to go around and thump people.

If i was looking to the coast id buy now in Redcar.Its not as well linked as Darlington,but you have a beautiful coast heading south like Whitby etc and its minutes from the A19 and then the A1 from there.Massive investment is going to go in right on the doorstep.It has 2 train stations and the area around the racecourse and also where the Redcar east train satation is are good areas.

There is also north of Teesside,places like Sedgefield,and south of Darlington,more expensive,but lovely places like Richmond.

We have known on this thread for a good few years what was coming,but the budget had shown we are right.Direction of travel is clear.

 

Despite the downer, RedKas nice - my Mum goes for bus trips there. The beach is great.

Just be aware were Redcar ends and South Bank starts.

The whole area of the Tees river frontage, around to Redcar is  great and v undeveloped.

If - and I think this is happening - theres a skew away from pouring money into London and to the North, then the North is looking promising.

Saltburn is nice and only 2 miles further South.

 

 

[King Penda]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

Same idea as a photograph signed by a famous photographer, 1 of a limited run of 100.

Some value, but not really.

Like Pokemon cards

[wherebee]

2 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Like Pokemon cards

I KNEW you collected Poke'her'mon cards.

 

[King Penda]

4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I KNEW you collected Poke'her'mon cards.

 

Just the names

[Jesus Wept]

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Very strong dotcom vibes, along with crypto mania, Robin Hood, gamestop and tesla feels like the later stage of the dotcom boom

The NASDAQ TESLA bubble burst on 12th February at 14095 pts..... IMHO.

I am so tempted to go x3 leveraged short - I reckon it will go sub 9000 pts by end of year and Tesla sub $400 soon.

[Noallegiance]

If the market correction and US 10Y keep on their trajectories, what chance of an early intervention before the scheduled FOMC?

They've got form for it now.