Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[sancho panza]

On 03/03/2021 at 17:06, Hardhat said:

I'm overweight in PM miners and getting a bit fucked at the moment portfolio wise, but this discussion is making me want to add more 

I am slightly worried that BTC will take over from PMs as a store of value for the younger generation though. I know loads of people my age who hold BTC or other crypto, and barely any that hold PMs or miners.

Given those coma scores,we'll be adding more exposure for sure.Might be options related though.Those free cash flows are incredible and gold can only really impriove from here imho .DYor natch.

On 03/03/2021 at 18:16, Castlevania said:

Was there any reason you excluded Polymetal? Their full year results were released today and from a cursory glance were good.

Less good was that out of all of 20 employees who contracted Covid-19; 5 died. 

the data wasn't on marketwatch when I checked

I'd score them 2,5,3,4,4=18.So one for cash flows rather than capital growth imho.dyor natch.

On 03/03/2021 at 18:50, kibuc said:

At first glance, it's an explorer with yeeears to go before any production (assuming they're even planning to ever produce instead of exploring & selling) so don't expect fireworks in financials. Explorers are money pits and compulsive dilluters until they strike gold, literally. Highest risk, highest reward.

Yeah but with a market cap of nearly CAD $118mn and it's accounts stating the following.Most interesting is para 3 in the political bit.

There are plenty other explorerco's rated more cheaply than that imho.They're burning cash

[sancho panza]

On 04/03/2021 at 10:15, Cosmic Apple said:

This is the big thing that just doesn't sit right about the whole blockchain argument, especially along side the climate change panic, the colossal amount of energy that goes in to it just seems to be largely ignored...

Have to agree CA.I haven't invested yet and I suspect we won't.Aside form the fact that I'd prefer gold,the argument over electricvity is being overlooked.I've heard various reports about the scale of leccy use being huge.

Politically,it jsut doens't work for CB's and teh political elite,which means they'll find a way to usurp it.

On 04/03/2021 at 11:14, DurhamBorn said:

Its to allow pension schemes to charge more so they can invest in assets that cost more to hold.So NEST can sell a cleaners shares in their pension in Bp at £2 and invest it some woke project and charge them extra fees.

Of course it also means they can invest in lots of different areas.It is another way on the roadmap though because it means less bonds,more real assets and thats the story of the cycle.

Criminal looking at BP at £3.22 today.Shocking.You do wonder how much thsoe people really know when they're selling off these chunks .......................................???

[Frank Hovis]

15 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

I hadn't thought how that should be counted in the centuries-long charts of debt-to-GDP ratios. Paging @Frank Hovis: are we potentially at Napoleonic-war levels already, if we include the unfunded public sector pension liabilities, or would you treat them differently, from an enlightened accountant's perspective?

Well it's a debt upon which you can default as you can on state debt but I'd agree that bringing them into account is a fair comparions to pre state pension days.

Government pension liabilities were £6.4 trillion in 2018 (includes state pension of £4.8tn).  I would say leave out the state pension liabilities as being more in line with a benefit as if you don't have a state pension you get pension credit to the same amount. Why work?

Leaves £1.6tn.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/pensionsinthenationalaccountsafullerpictureoftheuksfundedandunfundedpensionobligations/2018

Jan 2021 Debt £2.1tn or 97.9% of GDP

https://julianhjessop.com/2021/02/20/a-quickie-on-the-uk-debt-to-gdp-ratio/

 

Combined: £3.7tn on £2.15tn GDP = 172% - roughly peak WWI.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, 23rdian said:

@DurhamBorn 

Thanks for your posts, could you give a synopsis of what your are doing here for the newbies like me, are you buying oilies and miners due to the bond situation, hedging against inflation coming? Or have I got this arse about face?

I need to protect myself too and just wanted to clarify?

Im not buying now i bought when they were much lower.My main aim is to increase my families wealth by more than inflation takes away.I see success as standing still at the same time as not having to work.The best way would be to follow the thread but be very cautious ,there are likely to be violent shakeouts along the way.

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Ok. Gold miners. All the stuff on my watchlist are up e.g. Barrick; Harmony; IAMGOLD; Eldorado.

Any chance you can expand on why you're interesterd in IAM CV?No pressure and dyor natch?

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

This is just Lloyds l trying to prop up the value of the assets on their balance sheet. Frankly, it's bonkers. I wonder how cheap their borrowing costs will remain if they end up being even more dependent on UK resi...?

It's like 'pump n dump' witrhout the 'dump' as they can't find a willing patsy................shurely means the taxpayer will get hosed ....again.....!!

[No One]

I just sold my small Cineworld holdings as it was down 5%, and I think it hit a resistance point. Will buy them all back if they go bellow 80p.

Can't really cry on a 55% gain.

[AWW]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

We had a 7% correction last week, that's in the range of what happened in previous bull runs. But it happened too quickly, I'm still hoping for another 10% down and a recharge.

I can't help but think that unprecedented stimulus means unprecedented moves. Perhaps we should start to think of 7% being a big correction in the current market.

We're all sitting on 50, 100% gains in a matter of months on some fairly boring stocks. That's not normal, so we shouldn't expect anything else to behave "normally".

[Castlevania]

@DurhamBorn Is there another evening of Italian X-Factor set for tonight? I enjoyed what I saw last night

[DurhamBorn]

I expect the Fed and other CBs to push down on the short end here.Likely to take some wind out of the reflation trade,but be very good for PMs.That should force out liquidity into the real economy.The CBs dont want all their liquidity stuck in the short term pipes.They want inflation above rates to save the solvency of governments.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Any chance you can expand on why you're interesterd in IAM CV?No pressure and dyor natch?

I bought a small amount last year as part of a diversification strategy. In retrospect I should have bought a load more Sibanye which I bought at the same time.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

@DurhamBorn Is there another evening of Italian X-Factor set for tonight? I enjoyed what I saw last night

Yes and tonight the 26 artists all perform their own songs so its full on competition.Then the final tomorrow night they repeat and perform them all again.Same link,they remove the block just before it starts.,about 7.40pm GMT

[Don Coglione]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

This is just Lloyds l trying to prop up the value of the assets on their balance sheet. Frankly, it's bonkers. I wonder how cheap their borrowing costs will remain if they end up being even more dependent on UK resi...?

Exactly.

Repossess. Mark to model. Rent out.

Job done.

[DurhamBorn]

17 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

How far do you think it could knock oil back?

Id expect maybe a quick $5 off WTI,though likely copper will take the brunt.Fed needs the short end at around 1.3% for now i think.They want inflation around 1% higher than the 10 year.

Fed has printed so much to help government,but its no good stuck in M1 because in there the government cant tax it.Fed wants it out into the economy,into M3,so the government can tax it a few times as velocity moves.Governments are only broke if the money stays in M1.Once velocity moves tax income will shoot higher.

[MrXxxx]

On 04/03/2021 at 08:14, RWJ said:

Did anyone catch Sunak's comment about pension funds now being allowed to invest in riskier securities?  I think it was related to green projects.  I was only half listening but sounded like he slipped it in and quickly moved on, which raised alarm bells for me.  

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2021/03/03/budget-2021-govt-to-reform-investment-rules-for-pension-schemes/

No, I think he meant buying uk government bonds! :-)

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, Vendetta said:

That’s some big gains! Well done! Great to see so many people on this thread have made such big paper profits. You thinking of ‘going to cash’ for a while to lock in the gains? 
How long can this bull market continue? You buying much in the near future? If so what? 

Thinking of doing this with the works DC pension until the storm has passed as I have limited choice what to invest it in, but when to do it?...as for the ISA I will stay in the market as although they might drop a little I can't see them going the way of the majority, and I am in these for the long term.

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, BurntBread said:

Building new stock is probably a good thing (unless we get the promised mass exodus following Brexit), and institutional landlords will hopefully be better than most of the small-time BTL-ers.

However, I interpreted the "buy and rent out [...] existing properties" as being a euphemism for the fact they may get swamped by repossessions from bankrupt buy-to-letters. My (perhaps unrealistic) thinking is that there will be so many, that any attempt to sell them, as would be done in normal times, will crash the market and kick an unpluggable hole in Halifax/Lloyds' own balance sheet. They therefore need to keep them as assets on their books, at a price which doesn't include market discovery.

In that scenario, as a major player in PRS lending, they have no choice but to get into the business of actually renting out properties. Then, having made that decision, it's natural to also want to build your own, as they will be easier to manage & maintain, so make the whole division more profitable on average.

So, I'm suggesting it's driven by necessity, and reputational risk is just something they will have to put up with.

So they become the `accidental` landlords as a result of their `accidental` landlords...rather ironic really! :-)

[ThoughtCriminal]

Vix took a hell of a beating today

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

@DurhamBorn I reckon when you've made ya BILLIONS you'll relocate to Italy, and this will be YOU getting interviewed on: 'HOW-any-poor-person' can make a FORTUNE!

OR is that your dad in the video?!

 

Imagine if you did this here on blightly TV..you'd be banged up for a decade!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

9 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/lloyds-bank-to-become-private-landlord---report-7kvhd89udpvb5wp.html

 

 

If you're not shocked, you should be

 

All banks who are currently lending in to this madness know that this is what they will become, one way or another.

"You will own nothing and be happy" right?

[Bus Stop Boxer]

9 hours ago, No One said:

The double speak is mind boggling.

If LLOYDS, as they say, buy up existing housing stock, then they are using capital to increase demand for housing, and forcing the younger ones into rent slavery. So they aren't fucking helping anyone into homeownership quite the opposite, they are helping themselves.

 

These people should have been lynched in 2008.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

My CRUD is up 56% since May.

Exxon and BP back in the green.

Didnt put enough of my 10k punt in to it though.

Am 2k up on 10k overall though, so not a disaster. Flogged Fevertree this week about 20% up.

Should have gone bigger. Annoyed. Had Oxy and Pioneer and another fracker i forget the name. Flogged em off a few weeks back now, once they were evens, purely because of Biden.

Probably a basic error but ill live with it.

Although i need to find someone other than HL to do all this with, as they are killing me on the transaction costs.

£10K makes more for me in 10 months than a hefty 5 figure sum does in a year in a CASH ISA. the oil stocks in May were so tempting. Wish id gone large on the Vanguard ETF too but couldnt hold it in UK ISA.

 

Whats a good industrial/battery metal etf to get stuck in to?

[JMD]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Have to agree CA.I haven't invested yet and I suspect we won't.Aside form the fact that I'd prefer gold,the argument over electricvity is being overlooked.I've heard various reports about the scale of leccy use being huge.

SP, I accept there are plenty of legitimate arguments for/against BTC. But what I found dispiriting when reading up on crypto last year was the bias, tin ear, or straw man arguments frequently wheeled out by the detractors of crypto. Btw I don't think you were doing this, but you did cite the power requirements of crypto mining, and this is something which usually ranks pretty high on the list when crypto detractors discuss their pet hates of the 'coin that should not be named'!                                                                                                                     Anyway I know SP that you place facts highly when it comes to investing so thought youd be interested in the following article which in my opinion answers the whole power debate by putting it into context. Not hard to find and 2 year old article, so I think you have got to wonder about those still wedded to repeatedly using the disingenuous counter narrative.                                                          https://www.energyforgrowth.org/blog/bitcoin-gaming-and-the-chasm-of-global-energy-inequality/

[CVG]

9 hours ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Although i need to find someone other than HL to do all this with, as they are killing me on the transaction costs.

I've no idea what they're wider coverage is like, but I keep all my major UK FTSE ISA business in iWeb. £20 account set up and then a flat £5 on every trade (plus stamp duty). No ongoing charges.

I cannot comment on their FX charges or their spreads.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

I've no idea what they're wider coverage is like, but I keep all my major UK FTSE ISA business in iWeb. £20 account set up and then a flat £5 on every trade (plus stamp duty). No ongoing charges.

I cannot comment on their FX charges or their spreads.

I know this comes up every now and then, but I'm still faithful to ii, free regular investing which suits me fine (you can change the amounts and shares as you wish every month), £9.99 a month but you get £7.99 back for 1 'normal' trade which expires after 3 months.