Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

It’s palpable isn’t it. Perhaps for me it’s because I’ve worked throughout lockdown and have seen the effects and all the permanently closed businesses in London first hand. We all have a basic understanding on here of the macroeconomic climate we’ve been anticipating for and can see it unfolding in front of our eyes. There’s no way out of this without economic fallout, none, zip, zero, one way or the other and they know it too. It’s now just how far the narrative can be stretched until everyone realises that the Emperor isn’t wearing any clothes.

The masses however have been working happily from home completely oblivious, they don’t understand or care about complicated things such as the global economy as long as things just get back to ‘normal’.  By ‘normal’ that means shops and entertainment open, being able to go on holiday and life picking up where it left off and just pretending that last year didn’t happen. After all house prices have gone up, WFH for the foreseeable, no commute or childcare, saved shedloads of money with everything closed, whats not to like?

The problems will only arise when they realise that ‘normal’ isn’t coming back.

Lightscribe, i agree with the points you make. But your use of the term 'normal', and that people expect to return to such, reminded me of an article I have just read. Ater reading the article i was surprised at how radical the authors thinking was given that the authors were just representatives (black rock, etc) of a conservative European financial forum. In other words, even before C-19 it was pretty much an open secret that those times were anything but 'normal'. For example they discuss the need for large direct spending by government, and by passing the banks, on green, infrastructure projects, UBI, etc. Article is called: Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy Coordination.                                       It was written late 2019, so bit late in the day perhaps, and also realise this thread has been expecting those type of ideas to happen, but I was struck by their political frankness... Here's a quote... 'There is growing political discontent across major economies – and central banks are one of the targets. Widening inequality has fostered a backlash against elites. There are many drivers of inequality, including at its root technology, winner-take-all dynamics and globalisation. The GFC and the resulting forced bailout of financial Institutions deemed too big to fail has added fuel to this backlash.'                                                    If a minor think-tanks can publish this kind of stuff, our politicians must have been thinking/planning? along these lines for some time?!?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, invalid said:

Pleased to see one of my goldies in the news:

Centamin 2020 profit soars and dividend outlook reaffirmed

Centamin PLC on Monday said its profit jumped more than 80% in 2020, with the gold miner also achieving record revenue helped by booming bullion prices.

 

The following from the article made me think of the parallels with oil companies:

"Earnings rose despite output falling."

 

And this reminded me as something often mentioned on this thread:

"the group generated significant free cash flow, of USD142 million, a 91% increase, making it possible to propose and pay dividends attributable to 2020 of USD104 million"

 

Edit to add:

"Centamin continues to maintain a robust financial strategy, with cash and liquid assets of US$310 million as at 31 December 2020, with no debt, hedging or streaming in place."

 

 

Interesting as they came up as one of only 29 possible LSE value candidates on my screen.  Also oversold on the monthlies.  What happened in Oct 20 for the 39% fall in price.  Hardly moved on price today.  Not much love out there!

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

EDIT to add on my soup TIP!

 

ALWAYS add turmeric powder and cayenne pepper...

 

WHY?

 

The turmeric preserves food - so ya can glass jar up ya soup to last a WEEK!

 

3 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

I used to work with a retired copper. He was very nice, but he was also about 6 for 4 and built like a brick shithouse. The sort of man you'd have to be utterly retarded to even consider starting a fight with.

One of my wife's friends from school is in the police now. She's also very nice, but it's about 5 foot 2, and looks like a marathon runner.

The old fella would be late 60's by now, but he's still the one I'd want to have on my side in a fight.

 

 

YES there's some STUNNING female police about, you wouldn't mind being attested by this particular police woman would ya?!

 

 

 

OK, I'm off...only checking in to say i'm ...still ALIVE!

 

I'll see myself out ..."wheel spinning" on my zimmer frame!

 

@Lightscribe

 

 

[Castlevania]

49 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting as they came up as one of only 29 possible LSE value candidates on my screen.  Also oversold on the monthlies.  What happened in Oct 20 for the 39% fall in price.  Hardly moved on price today.  Not much love out there!

 

Warning on production volumes. 

[invalid]

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Warning on production volumes. 

They had to close one of their mines for 'safety' reasons. Something to do with unstable ground. They said a new geo study would decide if the mine may reopen at a later date.

 

To me this really does draw a parallel with the oil companies, the resources are there and its just a question of if the price will support the cost of extraction. Just like oil, the gold will never run out, there will always be some left in the ground somewhere. And as posted earlier, higher profits with lower output.

It seems a good fit with a lot of what has been discussed on this thread over the years.

[ThoughtCriminal]

4 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

ST Microelectronics must be in a good position here.

Full lineup of automotive electronics & sensors, and their own European-based fabs. 

Made the mistake of looking up their five year chart. They're up ten-fold 🙄

[ThoughtCriminal]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

On top of that,the Police appear to have moved to graduate recruits and away from taking ex military types and teaching them some law.Hence you end up on some jobs,ask for back up and a couple of really polite nice girls come along.

I've seen a fair few of the hard nosed police types I used to see on my rounds retire/get desk job/leave in the last few years.At that recent stabbing,I looked around and in all honesty,most of the attending police looked well manicured/coiffured but very hesitant/scared as it was quite a volatile situation.It was unsual as usually there's a few more experienced types around but still.I don't want to be too critical,as I wouldn't want to be a policeman but I'm just trying to explain the changes that have occurred from my perpsective

 

@Bobthebuilder

 

This was one of the main factors behind me leaving the prison service. 

 

I joined in 2003 and I learned the ropes from ex squaddies and NCOs, every prison was staffed by around 80% ex forces. They'd been around and seen a thing or two, all solid blokes you'd want next you in a tight spot. 

 

Then around 2010 they started recruiting more and more women and it became an absolute joke. 

 

Because I'm a big unit I always had to get kitted up and man the shield when a prisoner smashed a cell up and armed himself. 

 

One day my old school boss said "Fuck this, pointed at three female officers and said 'you get paid the same as him, get kitted up for a cell extraction, you're the three man team today'. 

 

Two of them started crying. My boss insisted though so in they went and in cartoon style the prison threw them out of the cell one at a time and they went sliding along the floor with this bewildered look on their faces. 

 

I just wanted to make the point that there are so many institutions in this country that once led the world: we really did have the best police, army prison service etc, but theyre now hollowed out, living on the reputations earned by better men who are long gone. 

 

Most people havent realised this yet and the destruction of our liberties without a whimper due to covid hysteria is just the first in a series of shocks coming down the line. 

 

We live in a giant potemkin village called Britain. 

 

Way off topic I know, so I'll leave it there. 

[Barnsey]

BK imminent 

 

[Transistor Man]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Made the mistake of looking up their five year chart. They're up ten-fold 🙄

Ah yes. I didn’t look. That’s what getting a new IR sensor in the iPhone will do. Still, those French and Italian fabs will come in handy. 

[leonardratso]

28 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

BK imminent 

 

show shine moment, think i might sell out now.

[ThoughtCriminal]

6 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Ah yes. I didn’t look. That’s what getting a new IR sensor in the iPhone will do. Still, those French and Italian fabs will come in handy. 

Yes, I don't doubt they'll still go up well from here, I just hate that feeling of knowing they've gone up so much lol

 

Wasn't knocking you btw 👍

[Bricormortis]

https://www.h2-view.com/story/worcester-bosch-and-baxi-hydrogen-boilers-to-feature-in-the-uks-100-hydrogen-home-public-demonstration/

The hydrogen house project is aligned with a larger scheme detailed in the Prime Minister’s Ten point plan – establishing a hydrogen neighbourhood in 2023, a hydrogen village by 2025, and a hydrogen town before the end of the decade.

[leonardratso]

and a hydrogen bomb by 2030

[JREWING]

5 hours ago, Harley said:

Interesting as they came up as one of only 29 possible LSE value candidates on my screen.  Also oversold on the monthlies.  What happened in Oct 20 for the 39% fall in price.  Hardly moved on price today.  Not much love out there!

 

I've been loading up CEY Harley.

Nice average of 102.75p

I'm expecting a nice lift on these when Gold gets on it's toes.

Divs yield of 6.4% to boot.

Director bought £50k today aswell. He paid 103.8

Great results. No debt, no brainer.

 

[Errol]

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

BK imminent 

 

This is utterly insane. If you are in the theatre the fire has already started. Run for your life.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Errol said:

This is utterly insane. If you are in the theatre the fire has already started. Run for your life.

I find the lack of this nonsense in PMs (For now) reassuring.  Quite funny when you think of their history vs crypto and how old 'astrology' is.  (I know she is just an airhead and not a real astrologer, whatever one of those is)

[Funn3r]

On 22/03/2021 at 13:41, StrugglingMillennial said:

Thinking of topping my physical silver holdings with some coins.

Does it matter that much if its britannias or maple leafs? Quite a price difference between the two.

Does buying physical silver even make sense when you have to pay 20% VAT on top? Unless it goes to the moon and you don't care?

[AWW]

4 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Does buying physical silver even make sense when you have to pay 20% VAT on top? Unless it goes to the moon and you don't care?

I was going to say the same thing; I used to buy VAT free silver from suppliers based in Belgium, but that's not an option anymore. I think I'd take a look at Bullion Vault if I wanted to buy silver now.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JREWING said:

I've been loading up CEY Harley.

Nice average of 102.75p

I'm expecting a nice lift on these when Gold gets on it's toes.

Divs yield of 6.4% to boot.

Director bought £50k today aswell. He paid 103.8

Great results. No debt, no brainer.

 

I quite like buying stuff on bad news (the mine). Probably will have a nibble.  Gold miners were popping up on my value screens given their financials before my break.  They were not there on the technicals though but I will look tomorrow.  Anything with a minimum 3% div, which should cover a few.  Yup, gold miners as value/div plays!!!!!

PS:  Me getting back into things financial is blooming hard work but it's proving quite good to look at things afresh.  Already got some good ideas on how I can better approach things than before. 

[wherebee]

Well, first day in almost a year where every US stock of mine is in the red on dailies.  

 

BK start?  or a pullback before more rising?

[Majorpain]

This is good timing, the last time it was blocked was six day war in 1967!  Captain has done a good job of getting it well stuck on the bank.

[Bus Stop Boxer]

58 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

This is good timing, the last time it was blocked was six day war in 1967!  Captain has done a good job of getting it well stuck on the bank.

Take a look at Greg Mannarinos latest vids on YT. Hes been on about "events" in the oil industry to get price going for some time.

[sleepwello'nights]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Does buying physical silver even make sense when you have to pay 20% VAT on top? Unless it goes to the moon and you don't care?

I bought a small number of silver coins from Coininvest a couple of weeks ago. I haven't been charged VAT.

[Mapper]

7 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

living on the reputations earned by better men who are long gone. 

What makes this expontentially more tragic is that the only entity that seems to realise this is the Chinese Communist Party. 

[Funn3r]

19 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I bought a small number of silver coins from Coininvest a couple of weeks ago. I haven't been charged VAT.

Have they been delivered yet? Their FAQ says you don't pay VAT when you order, but the delivery company wants the VAT off you plus some collection fee. A bit like when you get the sodding RM card through your door saying that will be £0.73 VAT plus 8 quid fee.