Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[King Penda]

Just now, geordie_lurch said:

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to digital pounds (plebs only probably) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly horde it.

That would be a longer time frame but possible .no idea how big the black economy is here but they would probably start useing dollars over time

[NogintheNog]

20 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Ref your question, I am quite convinced that governments around the world have fiddled the figures to suit their own agendas since the very beginning of the pandemic, and will continue to do so. In other words, whether the vaccine(s) are successful or not is probably less relevant than what those governments decide they want the truth to be.

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

[NogintheNog]

2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I am not sure how to play this as it looks nailed on that we are heading for a lockdown this Winter.

Johnson and Trudeau have both indicated that Lockdowns are more effective than the vaccines.

I think it is more likely that international holiday travel will take a hit first to ensure that no nasty vaccine resistant variants enter the UK...

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.
 

 

[Agent ZigZag]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

We're in a lull.  Looks like an agenda is indeed being played out unless this is just rearranging the bodies before an enquiry. Your finances may be next up.  Regulation, capital controls, tax changes, etc.  Be prepared.

I hold quiet of bit of silver and gold at Goldmoney, an account that I have held and used for a long time. This has suddenly been frozen after I tried to take delivery. I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc. The full works under the requirement of money laundering. The daft thing is with all on line finance/banking, share accounts etc, they ask no questions regarding money laundering when you give them your money, but as soon you ask for it back you have to jump through hurdles. It is why I like tangible objects. I want to see it and hold it cutting out the middle man.

Looking in from the outside I am of the opinion that there is a huge agenda being played out. Governments around the world simply do not know what to do with the current system that we have in place, that is running out of road. 

[Rave]

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Yes I can see it’s yet to be peer reviewed, it says it in the article. I was merely linking to to it and repeated what it stated within it.

No, you completely misrepresented what was said within it, hence my objection. You stated that taking the Pfizer vaccine makes people 8 times more susceptible to catching the SA variant, and that's simply not what the study shows.

 

7 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The reasoning behind the post was in response to other comments stating that any further suspensions/reviews/age group suitably etc , could delay the global economy bouncing back as quickly as expected, thus providing the catalyst for the BK event we have speculated on.

That's entirely fair enough. But when you're talking about a current vaccine against an ongoing pandemic of an illness that makes some people really ill and sometimes has serious long term ongoing effects, accuracy matters a bit more than usual.

If it was actually true that the Pfizer vaccine made you more likely to catch the SA variant then that would, in my opinion at least, actually be a very good reason to be circumspect about taking it. But as it stands, all the evidence suggests the opposite- that it makes you less likely to catch it. It's just not quite as effective against the SA variant as against the others.

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

The Media misrepresent a lot of things, hence why we need to encourage the critical thinking skills in the populus that you have demonstrated, not media control of `perceived` fake news. As for its relevance, whether it `fake`/misinterpreted or not, it can still move the market hence its importance, I don't recall anyone saying you had to believe it?

It was (and is) absolutely not my intention to police the relevance of posts in this thread. I myself literally only post slightly off topic stuff in it as I have nothing to add to the stock picking or macro discussion; so I only pipe up on subjects I know something about, like EROEI or energy storage round trip efficiency; or being a massive tightwad.

If I posted something along the lines of "Check out this stock I found lads, it's in a hot sector but has a P/E ratio of 1!!11! FILL YOUR BOOTS!" but it turned out that I'd missed a % sign or a decimal point while looking at the figures and actually the P/E was 100, then I'd expect to be pulled up on it, and fairly harshly at that.

[NogintheNog]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

There is risk in taking any medicine, hence all the warnings on any over the counter product. I am in the age at risk group but have not and have no intention of getting any of these vaccines thus far. If I thought I was at risk or knew I was at risk I probably would, but as far as I'm aware I'm not, so I won't.

What the Pharma companies have done is pretty amazing I have to say, but as far as I'm concerned this is nothing more than a huge phase 3 trial on 'new' medicine technology with a product approved for emergency use only. I'm sick to death of hearing that I'm helping the potential spread of Covid, when clearly you are not immunised against the ability to catch Covid, just the effect it may have on you. You can very likely still spread it even after vaccination!

Those countries that get on with getting back to work will come out of this better placed. Those that add more non productive workers to their government payroll will fare worse.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc

hmmmm interesting.......shitcoins to the moon it is then....

Guys I thought us 'basement dwellers' didn't get vaxxed with useless drugs? 

anyone seen this one?

 

[RJT1979]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

They are only like that when you turn up 😉

[JMD]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I hope the UK population will grow a pair and end this madness.

...grow a pair you say?... Sounds like you advocating 'toxic masculinity'?, isn't that now a hate crime?

I jest of course, back in the 'sensible real world' - Public Demonstrations are soon to be made illegal, All-Political-Party consensus, the Media and Legal professions are totally aligned with government thinking...                                                                     so to paraphrase Orwell, 'looking from Britain to Russia, and from Russia to Britain, and from Britain to Russia again; already it was impossible to say which was which'. 

[nirvana]

17 hours ago, Tingles said:

It's a difficult one as I am currently actively reducing my exposure to equities/funds.

Big banks are reporting earnings this week so markets bound to go higher

Apparently the top oil trader at GS is giving it up to be a crypto trader 

[BurntBread]

34 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

People would just accept it as they can use their cards... then they will swap your standard £s to CBDC digital pounds (plebs only, at least at first) and that's when the real fun starts as it will all be tracked and some of it will come with restrictions such as where you can spend it and how long you can selfishly 'hoard ' it

There is something funny about digital currency with a time-limit, which makes me think it's slightly less likely.

Governments love inflation, because it's a tax which working people don't know how to avoid, and typically don't realise it is a tax at all. Once you inflate the money supply, and when things have come back to some kind of equilibrium, then I think the overall result has been to confiscate wealth from two types of people: cash savers and bondholders (for example pensioners). As DB says, this is confiscation of saved labour. Those people who want to avoid the tax can do so by getting out of cash and bonds and into real things (including part-ownership of companies).

By introducing a digital currency with a time-limit, the government would be forcing cash into being just a medium of exchange, rather than a store of value as well. That will actually reduce the pool of people they can steal from through inflation, which is why I'm starting to doubt whether they really want to do this. Admittedly, the theft from bond-holders is much greater than that from cash-savers (not many people have large cash savings, and the leverage from debt is bigger), but it's still removing a part of the benefit (to the government) of inflation, as a tool to farm the population.

Am I making a reasonable point here, or is it just wishful thinking?

[NogintheNog]

7 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

By introducing a digital currency with a time-limit, the government would be forcing cash into being just a medium of exchange, rather than a store of value as well.

Isn't it already just a medium of exchange? It's only a store of value if we switch to deflation, and then TPTB will extract it from your accounts to save the banks....???

To my mind the last time cash or should we say currency was a store of value was pre 2008!

[feed]

Follow the money

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Unless it's extended again, i wouldn't expect to see real change in behaviour before October 

Another lockdown? Watch what Rishi does. 

 

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, feed said:

Follow the money

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Unless it's extended again, i wouldn't expect to see real change in behaviour before October 

Another lockdown? Watch what Rishi does. 

 

They extended the Covid laws in March 2021 for another year. That in itself speaks volumes.

[Lightscribe]

45 minutes ago, Rave said:

No, you completely misrepresented what was said within it, hence my objection. You stated that taking the Pfizer vaccine makes people 8 times more susceptible to catching the SA variant, and that's simply not what the study shows.

I didn’t say catching it, I said ‘at risk’ which I have amended what I should have said above. That’s my last post on the matter, I’ve have already outlined the point I was making.

[Hancock]

1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

6 months, I think

You are correct ... my memory is shite these days!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/25/uk-emergency-covid-rules-extended-another-six-months-coronavirus-act

[DurhamBorn]

Inflation will decide how long this goes on.Once its over 3% and remains there QE will slow down and then stop.Governments then will be facing a huge structural deficit.Then government will have to hold down spending so inflation can do its work.

 

[feed]

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

[JMD]

55 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

NogintheNog, sorry to hear of your own family loss, and I have begun to hear similar stories on radio phone-ins. The alarming thing is that the callers were telling how their relative's death was recorded as covid, despite them not even being tested and of showing no symptoms (like your aunt they had a terminal illness). You say your Aunt was tested, and that she has become part of the figures, but just to be clear can i ask what your Aunt's death certificate had recorded as cause of death, was it the tumour or was it covid?

Excuse me asking, but the reason i do so is that these type of stories coming from hospices, or where the person has died at home, but always from a diagnosed terminal illnesses, but that their deaths are recorded as covid deaths - are for me a proof of the manipulation of the statistics. But alarmingly, when i mention these types of things to others, they are totally unconcerned. What are the true death figures?... i have written before i think them far lower, but even if 120,000 did die in the first year, i personally believe that the casual/cack-handed/callous? closing down of the NHS will cause far more deaths, yet to emerge over the coming few years.

[Chewing Grass]

Just now, feed said:

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

Its looking increasingly likely that I will have to start drawing my first pension (which doesn't trigger MPAA) some time after August courtesy of having worked non stop for the last year, having to shut my Ltd Co, going PAYE and taking a pay cut to boot.

So yes I will be pulling money to cover lost income and minimise haemorrhaging what is left to tax but still won't break even and will be bringing in less money than 2017.

There comes a point when as a worker you have to give-up chasing the impossible.

[King Penda]

16 minutes ago, feed said:

Remember the state fears mass unemployment more than anything else.  The lockdowns are unenforceable without the furlough money.  If it gets extended, then we see another shutdown over winter 21/22

No shutdown.  Then we get people pulling money out of savings to either spend it in an open market, or to cover costs as they lost their income.  And that could be a market crash trigger.

That’s ok if people have saveings most don’t 

[feed]

8 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Good points. The other element is that the BK is unlikely to be triggered from within the UK, but the US. The UK follows, not leads. And the US is not going to lock down again this winter: it will be vaccinated, so there will be no hospital pressure this time. Individual states make their own decisions on lockdowns despite Biden's administration toeing the line, significant states like Texas and Florida are fully open with no restrictions and have banned vaccine passports. It could be that your second option is triggered in the US, and the locked down UK gets whacked with it while paying millions of people to sit at home and do nothing. There are also enough independent voices in Europe that won't tolerate more lockdowns, like Denmark and Germany. I'm thinking that these latest smoke signals from the Johnston Junta are more to do with stupidity and attempted arse covering. It explains why they are not letting the vaccine take credit "but we protected you, vote for us/don't put up in front of a judge".

Completely agree.

I expect there is a battle going on within our state, between the Marxists that want another shutdown, and the career politicians that have an innate sense of self preservation.
Could still go either way, I guess.  But I don’t see them holding onto another lockdown without another massive cash injection and who holds the purse strings.  
 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, stokiescum said:

When furlow ends lots are in for a surprise 

If it gets that far, I'm unsure of what the lag is going to be, but if the savings of the past year start to get splurged then late summer is likely to get hot in more ways than one!  Been a long time since we have seen money velocity increase substantially in a short period of time.

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Its looking increasingly likely that I will have to start drawing my first pension (which doesn't trigger MPAA) some time after August courtesy of having worked non stop for the last year, having to shut my Ltd Co, going PAYE and taking a pay cut to boot.

So yes I will be pulling money to cover lost income and minimise haemorrhaging what is left to tax but still won't break even and will be bringing in less money than 2017.

There comes a point when as a worker you have to give-up chasing the impossible.

Iv earned less than i did when i was 29 for the last 20 years  at least from paid work  .I measure success these days on how much the state gets from me and my family.Iv measured success not on income,but on how long i have to be somewhere getting paid.The thing i always chased as a worker was becoming not a worker.I do now consider the tax allowance though as a maybe.Clown world they have created.