Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.
 

 

Exactly right, it is the 'negative vaccine narrative', being promulgated by our (putative?) media that is interesting. After all, previous to this, the media had absolutely no interest in telling us of anything outside of 'the official government line', eg alternatives to 'lockdown' (what a phrase to introduce to the lexicon?), etc...

...hmm, so anyway if vaccine hesitancy/vaccine effectiveness/vaccine danger!! (take your pick, these media story variants/mutations?!? are coming fast and furious) IS THE government line, then as others here have commented, in terms of the thread thesis - the BK event must surely be baked in?  

[Mapper]

43 minutes ago, feed said:

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Fuck me dead! Wasn't that the same thing the Ministry of Information put out in 2020?

At this rate, we'll never win the war with Oceania.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

I think it is more likely that international holiday travel will take a hit first to ensure that no nasty vaccine resistant variants enter the UK...

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

We used to go skiing in the Lech/St Anton area and I would smile at Zug seeing the ad at the hotel for the international Cardio conference.  Is there a society or two the SAGE guys belong to I could join that have nice conferences?

[feed]

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

They will still enter of course via some businessman travelling essentially with his family in tow

Funny you should say that.  Our place, yesterday

Travel Update 
Travel continues to be restricted to business essential only.  The information below provides updates on traveling, approval levels and necessary resources that will assist in trip planning.

Approval Levels
We are returning to previous Corporate Approval Authorities for travel and the COVID restrictions and incremental approval requirements are eliminated.  

 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its more your area than mine Harley,but something doesnt smell right does it.In one way it points to what i expected in them needing a huge excuse to boost investment spending and kick in reflation,but there seems more.The fact corporates seem to be more interested in woke than shareholders etc.

Regulation can destroy,or should we say transfer capital in an instant and as you say is growing into a huge risk.

Last year I thought similar that it was the excuse to kick in relation but has looked like there's more to it for a long while now. Very worrying. 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Exactly this. Perhaps I should have worded it better and said ‘South Africa variant proved to be eight times more prevalent among tested patients’ instead of at risk. But it doesn’t add anymore to the point I was making. Look at the reactions in the comment section.

If the MSM articles places seeds of doubt in the population it will cause vaccine hesitancy (like AZ and JJ currently) which will effect the wider economy, again like this article.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/michigan-covid-test-positive-vaccinated-b1827393.html

I couldn’t care less about the scientific studies behind it (this isn’t a Covid/vax thread), it’s the narrative and wider effect on the population that matters in the economy, and it’s the government that will control that narrative whichever way they wish the direction to go.

People gotta think for themselves and trust no-one, which most probably won't so there may be chopiness generally as the gaps close.  A typical vaccine mutation characteristic is it is more virulent but less harmless than the original.  Now when they say a variant is more virulent but does not seem to be more harmful, that's making it sound as bad as possible if that should actually be "less harmful".  Not opening a virus discussion, just illustrating the need to be careful.  But then if you have been listening to CEOs for a few years, you learn and develop the filter!  To quote: It's what they don't say that's as important!  For us, that could mean more extremes and volatility as they zig zag around reality.

PS:  Reading that later post about the 25% of covid not being covid makes me think maybe not a zig zag so much as just closing the gap back to reality, like an aircraft after a bumpy flight has to align itself with the landing runway.

[Talking Monkey]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation will decide how long this goes on.Once its over 3% and remains there QE will slow down and then stop.Governments then will be facing a huge structural deficit.Then government will have to hold down spending so inflation can do its work.

 

That's one thing that may stop this madness. They've got only so much runway where they can offer goodies whilst they slowly ratchet up the orwellian nonsense. Maybe the idiocy will subside once QE is no longer an option 

[leonardratso]

3 hours ago, stokiescum said:

No chance they love it other than a mask in supermarkets and 1 2 week period off school for the lad I’ve been lucky and unaffected mainly.no tests or jabs.the biggest cause for concern has been my weight gain which is my fault and the obvious clinical depression in lots of friends

hey fatty, stop going to the fridge, or if you cant then move the fridge to the next town and away from the settee by at least a mile.

[planit]

2 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

The figures from the ONS quoted every evening are the ones that vex me.

'X' number of deaths from any cause within 28 days of a positive test?

So we have 125,000+ deaths from Covid, but how many of that figure actually died of Covid? How many of them were going to die anyway, and picked up Covid on the way? Sadly I have an Aunt who is part of those figures. She has had cancer over the last two years and was given 3 months to live late last year. She was moved into a hospice where she was tested and found to have Covid. She sadly passed away a few weeks later, but she didn't die on a ventilator but from the effect of the tumour.

We'll never know how many more would have died if we had not locked down, how much worse would it have been???

Quarter of Covid deaths not caused by virus, new figures show

 

 

I have been waiting for an article like this for ages.

 

Regarding what Boris and Trudeau say, you need to apply the same rules as with the BOE and the FED:

They decide what outcome they want and from that they work out the best thing to say to give the highest chance of the outcome happening. 

I read the British Psychological Society want to take the government to court for exactly this as the government are damaging people with their actions.

 

Regarding lockdowns next winter, I see no evidence this will happen, the figures are better than people hoped for with vaccines but no one wants to call it yet in case they are wrong.

Look here: Covid: 'Israel may be reaching herd immunity'

From the article - A leading Israeli doctor believes the country may be close to reaching "herd immunity"

But there is this:

Prof Eyal Leshem, a director at Israel's largest hospital, the Sheba Medical Center, said herd immunity was the "only explanation" for the fact that cases continued to fall even as more restrictions were lifted.

 

The report mentioned earlier regarding the higher prevalence of the South Africa strain is also crap, there was a similar article regarding cases in Michigan affecting young people (which was actually caused by the older people being vaccinated). Best to ignore all this noise or you will make bad investment decisions.

 

In my opinion we are getting close to the end of the worry regarding Europe's cases so markets will start looking beyond this current wave. The rapid move up in oil etc that DB mentioned might happen.

The biggest risk to everything is America and China suffering from new waves.

 

 

[sancho panza]

10 hours ago, Rave said:

Having had two doses of Pfizer the idea that it makes me 8 times more prone to catching the SA variant alarmed me somewhat, so I thought I'd better click on your link to see if it's true.

And fortunately it's not. In fact it's total bollocks.

What the study actually found was that, of 400 people who have been vaccinated and yet still contracted covid, 5%, so presumably a grand total of 22 people, had the SA variant. They then compared that with 400 people who had not been vaccinated and caught covid, and found that only 0.7% of them had the SA variant.

What the study, which by the way hasn't yet been peer reviewed, does not seem to have concerned itself with is any attempt to compare the covid infection rates of people who have been vaccinated with people who have not. Even if you accept that the study has been done properly and that you can get meaningful results from such small numbers, all that can be inferred from it is that the Pfizer vaccine is less effective at preventing infection by the SA variant than it is at preventing infection by other variants. There is absolutely nothing in it at all to suggest that it increases the SA variant infection rate by 8 times.

Now I have no particular axe to grind here; obviously I have had the vaccine but I really don't particularly care if other people make an informed choice not to get it. The problem I have is that if people misinterpret scientific studies and then post their misinterpretation on the internet as fact, then that makes it harder for other people to make an informed choice. And pretty much all the studies I've seen show that the Pfizer vaccine, while expensive to buy and store, is both highly effective and as safe as you can reasonably expect a vaccine to be. If someone didn't take it based on your misinterpretation of a study that's pretty limited to start with, I think that would be a bit off, frankly.

And so because of that, rather than just to be a prick, I feel justified in doing the following.

@geordie_lurch @invalid @The Idiocrat @Fully Detached @sancho panza Please be aware that the above post which you marked as 'informative' completely misinterprets the scientific study it links to.

I read the article and the reason I found it informative was that it highlighted,albeit as you point out,in a non peer reviewed study,the possibility that people who've been vaccinated can catch still catch covid. @Lightscribedid misinterpret what was in it but you can link to peer reviewed studies and misinterpret what's in them.I'd assume that anyone who's read the article and marked the post informative has similarly read the article.

You've assumed that I marked Lightscribe's post informative without reading the article from what I can see.

In terms of taking the vaccine,I'd agree that everyone has to weigh their risk profile individually.

The whole issue of peer review is important,hence one might attach more significance to articles that are. However,much like official inflation figures,some anecdotal evidence can potentially give you an insight that's not currently available from offically compiled stats .In terms of peer review,I'm still waiting(as is the world of lockdown sceptics) for Prof Neil Ferguson to publish the computer model he used to create his original wildly inaccurate covid fatality predictions in 2020.

 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

C'mon, wisdom of the crowd!

@Agent ZigZag posted that the authorities don't know what to do as the system has run out of road.  Maybe the crowds sense it too and are milking it as well!  I predict depravity and orgy until the Huns turn up!

[planit]

3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I read the article and the reason I found it informative was that it highlighted,albeit as you point out,in a non peer reviewed study,the possibility that people who've been vaccinated can catch still catch covid. @Lightscribedid misinterpret what was in it but you can link to peer reviewed studies and misinterpret what's in them.I'd assume that anyone who's read the article and marked the post informative has similarly read the article.

You've assumed that I marked Lightscribe's psot informative without reading the article from what I can see.

The whole issue of peer review is important,hence one might attach more significance to those that are. However,much like official inflation figures,some anecdotal evidence can potentially give you an insight that's not possible .In terms of peer review,I'm still waiting(as is the world of Lockdown sceptics) for Prof Neil Ferguson to publish the computer model he used to create his original wildly inaccurate covid fatality predictions in 2020 for peer review.

With a vaccine you are less likely to catch Covid AND less likely to pass it on. This has been confirmed by studies in Israel etc.

Vaccinated people less likely to transmit coronavirus

I haven't checked these figures but hopefully it demonstrates the point.

If there is an 80% efficacy for the virus then there is only 20% chance of catching it.

On top of that if there is a 50% less chance of passing it on if you do catch it then the propagation of the virus falls by 90% due to the virus (0.2 x 0.5). This is a huge drop and more than enough for herd immunity solely from the vaccine (ignoring the 30% of the population that have already had the virus and the 25%[guess] who are naturally immune).

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Looking in from the outside I am of the opinion that there is a huge agenda being played out. Governments around the world simply do not know what to do with the current system that we have in place, that is running out of road. 

I agree 100%, and think this is the main reason for all the mixed messaging/cack-handed policies we have seen from the start of the 'pandemic'. For example, Boris Johnson did a 360 u-turn last February, where within a two-week period he went from saying closing pubs is not the 'British way', but then implemented a succession of 2/3/4-month lockdowns. I get it that he is a chaotic politician (understatement), but the rest of the cabinet have also imo been very conspicuous by their absence, what do they really believe i wonder?

I sometimes fantasise that a senior politician stepped forward and 'went rogue' to spill the truth beans, but in reality i think that it is too late for any such act to make a difference - the public are now fully on board and simply wouldn't take any notice. In fact, i believe there would even be wild calls for the 'wicked-witch' to be burned at the stake, so far down the rabbit hole we have now gone!!! (excuse the muddled metaphores)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, feed said:

Follow the money

When does the furlough scheme end? The furlough scheme is currently set to run until September 30.

Furloughed employees will continue to receive up to 80% of their pay for hours not worked while the scheme continues:

From July, the government will contribute 70% and employers will have to pay 10% for hours not worked
In August and September the government will pay 60% and employers 20%

Unless it's extended again, i wouldn't expect to see real change in behaviour before October 

Another lockdown? Watch what Rishi does.

To me, the odd furlough extension to September immediately made me think of a project go-live being delayed.  Maybe they are not ready yet to pull the switch to whatever they have in store for us financially.  Systems not ready, data not ready, users haven't been fully "trained", change managers saying user acceptance not quite there yet, technical issues, testing not going well etc, etc?

[Rave]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

They all want this gravy train to continue of course, so will push things negatively. The latest 'vaccines aren't bringing down infections, lockdowns are' bollocks from Boris speaks to his. That, or his is trying to cover his arse for stupid lockdown policies. Maybe the lawyers have woken up and had a word with him?

 

Chris Snowdon has done an interesting twitter thread on this:

 

He's a noted opponent of the nanny state so I'm inclined to take him at face value, but obviously I wouldn't want to be seen to be doing an 'appeal to authority' so please everybody continue to DYOR .

My own personal stance is that once everybody has been offered a vaccine (whether they have accepted it or not) then lockdowns must end and everyone must decide for themselves whether to chance it.

And my own personal stance on the vaccine was that, as someone who is not eligible for any government support payments of any type, and given that the vaccine appears to be safe enough by my own standards, then it was in my interest to take it simply because I'm "self employed" and I stood to lose money if I had to stop working through illness. I will not use a vaccine passport in this country on principle (though I would get one if it enabled me to travel abroad, since it doesn't seem unreasonable to me for countries to try to stop foreigners potentially bringing the virus in).

[reformed nice guy]

Had a glance at the BBC news and Tesco posted a 7% rise in revenue but 20% drop in profit.

Some of that will be expanding out their home delivery operations but you would have hoped that they had already written down a lot of that infrastructure already.

UK productivity stats also down.

A sign of things to come and another indicator for coming inflation

[Rave]

16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

You've assumed that I marked Lightscribe's post informative without reading the article from what I can see.

 

I intended no such implication, apologies if it came across that way. I had no way of knowing whether you had clicked the link and read the article for yourself. There was always every chance that by tagging you and the others I was simply teaching granny to suck eggs  .

[Hancock]

4 minutes ago, Rave said:

He's a noted opponent of the nanny state so I'm inclined to take him at face value, but obviously I wouldn't want to be seen to be doing an 'appeal to authority' so please everybody continue to DYOR .

 

 

He is a Blairite a neoliberal or whatever his breed are labelled as.

He has just locked the entire nation down for what looks to be a minimum of 15 months, and is now trying to force people to take his quickly knocked up vaccine ..... he is the most authoritarian PM in the history of these Isles.

[planit]

I had a thought today and feel free to critique -

It is regarding the spending boom which I believe will take markets by surprise at some point.

Everyone agrees that there is a lot of increased savings and there are people who have not gone out as they are scared.

 

What I believe is that these two points are correlated so the more scared someone is, the more chance they have higher savings.

I don't think the correlation is huge but enough to make early spending potentially less than expected which misguides so later spending grows much faster than expected.

 

My outlook has been pushed back over the last month, I see a slow increase in confidence and opening up over the summer and a late boom this year. BK might be pushed back to next year as I can't see it happening whilst people are in a spending boom. There might well be a big tech-led market rout soon but I feel a BK needs a bit more real-world substance behind it.

 

[sancho panza]

22 hours ago, Wheeler said:

I've been watching the actual figures for the past couple of months and it is clear that CPI is accelerating. Obviously the US Fed will try and spin it as temporary but a month on month increase of 0.62% isn't impacted by last year's base effect! There have been 5 months now where the percentage increase over the previous month has increased:

My prediction is it will show year on year CPI of 4% next month and 4.8% the month after. We could be on for 6% by October with the Fed talking about tightening, just in time for the BK.

 

For thsoe fishing for BK instigators,I think inflation wins over Lockdowns/Covid related issues.The reality is that as long as the CB's can print,govts can carry on as they have.the moment they can't we enter a new,much more worrying phase when the cracks that started showing in 2008 can't be papered over.

19 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Even here in the UK, the government statistics for reactions and fatalities are all readily available and yet get no mention. These are from January to March and I suspect these will naturally increase the more they are rolled out to a wider range of people with pre-existing conditions etc and second doses are administered.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-print

Recent studies also show that those with both Pfizer doses are more eight times more at risk to the South African variant than unvaccinated. 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/israel-covid-19-study-south-africa-variant-pfizer-vaccine.amp

I can quite easily see a suspension of the vaccine rollout in western counties leading to the BK. I think eventually a continuous updatable mRNA vaccine program will be put in place instead.

Problem is if the big blast off of opening the global economy doesn’t happen, it could be the trigger to blast it the other way.

 

The thing is that we've known for some time anecdotally that there have been problems with adverse vaccine reactions.The gov.uk link states 126,000 fatalities from covid.

Interesting report,thanks for psoting

As you say,it's more the perception amongst the public than anything else.

From the govt research.

'The MHRA has received 302 UK reports of suspected ADRs to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in which the patient died shortly after vaccination, 472 reports for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 12 where the brand of vaccine was unspecified. The majority of these reports were in elderly people or people with underlying illness.'

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Nice bit of DD there, Rave. I find that when I can be bothered, I invariably find similar stupid uses of statistics and misinterpretations as I've previously done on here. What I imagine is happening is a total feeding frenzy of funding being chucked out by governments, which starving academics and researchers have jumped on, throwing out any old shite. Yet another corruption by throwing unearned money around.

They all want this gravy train to continue of course, so will push things negatively. The latest 'vaccines aren't bringing down infections, lockdowns are' bollocks from Boris speaks to his. That, or his is trying to cover his arse for stupid lockdown policies. Maybe the lawyers have woken up and had a word with him?

They can engineer another lockdown if they want, but I for one won't be participating. I've accepted this bollocks till the vunerable were vaccinated, as it is a real, highly contagious disease and I don't want to infect anyone (though I think they should have been locked down, not the healthy population). Now, I am quite prepared to break the covid laws if they don't take them off the books, get fined, and let it go to court. I can afford to argue my case. All it will take is a few tens of thousands of people doing this to entirely clog up the court system. Civil disobedience from now on. The sword over my head of course is that they will threaten to criminalise me, which would affect my employment, but so be it. I don't want to pay this much tax anyway 

I think you're one of a large number of people that have that perspective and it makes perfect sense.Vulnerable are vaccinated etc.

The issue is that our politcal class have become accustomed to lockdowns for a variety of reasons.Obsessed even.It really does have the feel of them wanting another lockdown,I'm jsut not sure the economy could stand it.

Local elections in May will give an insight as to where we are.I think the govt will do badly,not because people dislike them for the lockdown,rather from a lack of enthusiasm.If the Troies get mullered,then lockdowns are finished.If they don't then they could be back in the winter.

2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I hold quiet of bit of silver and gold at Goldmoney, an account that I have held and used for a long time. This has suddenly been frozen after I tried to take delivery. I now have to demonstrate a full audit trail of where my income came from going back 15 plus years, employment status, who I am, address etc. The full works under the requirement of money laundering. The daft thing is with all on line finance/banking, share accounts etc, they ask no questions regarding money laundering when you give them your money, but as soon you ask for it back you have to jump through hurdles. It is why I like tangible objects. I want to see it and hold it cutting out the middle man.

Looking in from the outside I am of the opinion that there is a huge agenda being played out. Governments around the world simply do not know what to do with the current system that we have in place, that is running out of road. 

Informative post AZZ.One reason to hold paper gold via the miners.Quite worrying really,when I can't produce 5 years of that data.

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, JMD said:

I sometimes fantasise that a senior politician stepped forward and 'went rogue' to spill the truth beans....

Sajid Javid sort of did during the planning phase!  Did anyone really believe a politician got annoyed with playing politics!

[Harley]

25 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

.....

Some of that will be expanding out their home delivery operations but you would have hoped that they had already written down a lot of that infrastructure already.

......

My partner informs me you now need to first fill your basket before booking an on-line delivery slot.  Maybe a new algo to offer slots on the basis of the size of the basket?!

[planit]

Funniest article so far today, I wonder what happens when people start flying :

[Harley]

In a way I'm proud of us all for now really talking about the "political economy", not just the BoE, etc!  Today's posts highlight the tight integration between the two, more than any "pure" economist can comprehend.  I did PPE, but not all in one go, first came the economics, then then politics, and now the philosophy! 

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, Rave said:

 

I intended no such implication, apologies if it came across that way. I had no way of knowing whether you had clicked the link and read the article for yourself. There was always every chance that by tagging you and the others I was simply teaching granny to suck eggs  .

No worries.I was surprised,even with such a small sample that people who've been vaccinated could still catch it.Having said that,there's a chance these are false postives depending on the testing protocol.

I knew well before the data came out that there were issues with adverse reactions to the vaccine.I'm not a doctor,but some people with complex medical conditions were being given these vaccines with so much as a GP consultation and then ending up in A&E.As the govt paper says,the bulk of the bad reactions have been in people with pre existing conditions.

I've said to my Dad -who's 75-that the risk/reward in terms of the vaccine really changes markedly where the death rate ticks up in my opinion(I'm not a doctor) ie 60's/70's.It's difficult for people because the govt have been relatively disingenuous with the data.In teh gov.uk piece @Lightscribe posted here,they talk about 126,000 people dying within 28 days of a covid positive test,which is true but not a particualrly nuanced reflection of the reality.Firstly,there are issues with false positives eg poor Lab conditions(Panorama),cycle counts for PCR etc.Secondly,a number of those may have died as described but did so from other conditions eg heart failure,COPD(which covid would likely exacerbate the symptoms of).ICU admissions at the peak in Jan for MI's(heart attacks) were down 50% plus,strokes down 50% plus-you can see my point.When they state 126,000 died with covid,they didn't provide the crucial context that however many people didn't die of these conditions that did at the same time last year.

The UK's all cause mortality was lower in 2020 than all the years before 2008.New Zealand(poster boy for lockdown) has it's highest all cause mortality figures for 15 years currently which you don't hear in the MSM much.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-print