Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[BurntBread]

32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

You need to be very careful with any data relating to 'excess deaths' as definition is everything and a lot of people on both sides of the debate have played loosely with them.

All cause mortality per capita is the sensible metric for context historically in terms of death rates.It cuts out debates over whether people died of covid or MI's or strokes.

I suspect the difference between the UK and NZ is more demographic than anything else.And we'll likely see a rise in both as missed cancer diagnoses etc etc come through hereafter.

UK highest death rate since 2007

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/GBR/united-kingdom/death-rate

New Zealand has it's highest death rate since 2003

As clean and simple as "all cause mortality per head of population" sounds, I think it is still rife with hidden factors, which make comparing numbers across the decades difficult. I do agree with your general point that 2020 was not a very unusual year. You could argue that we were saved by lockdowns. You could also argue that there has not been a good study showing the relative effects of lockdowns, innate immunity, acquired immunity from infections with mild symptoms, effects of warmth/UV from seasonality, and just the plain fact that the disease is barely a few times more dangerous than the 'flu. It's been a showcase of selected statistics, and essentially no science on display (i.e. critical, no-holds-barred debate, based on previous work and controlled experiments).

Sorry for the rant. What I wanted to say about your graphs is that the numbers are, on the face of it, rather odd. In a steady-state and at constant population, you can calculate the mean life expectancy from the mortality per head of population. A value of 11.5 per 1000 in 1960 would equate to a life expectancy of 87 years; and 9 per 1000 in 2012 would equate to a life expectancy of eleventy one. These are clearly nonsense figures, and I think a big reason for this is organic population growth, so the population structure is skewed young, and is out of equilibrium. If you want to compare mortality per head over different decades, you would have to correct for this. My guess is that the rise after 2010 in the UK may be due to an undocumented rise in population (unregistered EU and Pakistani immigration), which would have to include enough older people that there were significant deaths.

However, that is all speculation, but really goes to show that it is hard to find truly clean data that does not need interpretation. For what it's worth, the plots of weekly all-cause mortality, with comparisons to those for the previous few years, are probably as close as we can get to that. They show that we had a serious disease in the Spring of 2020, and I am glad that something was done about it. I think what they did was an overreaction and mis-directed, and no attempt was made to take natural controls for lockdown measures seriously (i.e. in US states, Brazil, Belarus, and Sweden). Also no attempt has been made to draw a line in the sand and say "this is the criterion for end of emergency measures".

It's a shitshow, and now it's a political shitshow. I guess the politics will hit the buffers when, as DB says, the money runs out. The economics leading the politics, again.

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7 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Re above               link to Telegraph, remember to press refresh then escape, to dodge the pay wall.

Oxford university calculates that the number of people in hospital with a current covid infection is likely to be around half the official number.

Figures from the ONS show a quarter of all people recorded as died with covid died from other causes in UK.

Would you be able to provide a link to the ONS statistics? I ask both for my interest and to save any upset 

[Bricormortis]

Well I have had a quick look at ONS website / covid deaths and no I would not be able to link the reported item to the information presented there.  I think it would take a bit of detective work, I am happy to note the linked report from the Telegraph.

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17 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Well I have had a quick look at ONS website / covid deaths and no I would not be able to link the reported item to the information presented there.  I think it would take a bit of detective work, I am happy to note the linked report from the Telegraph.

Interesting link on the telegraph article in regards to the guidance for doctors completing Medical Certificates of Cause of Death in England and Wales during the emergency period.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/877302/guidance-for-doctors-completing-medical-certificates-of-cause-of-death-covid-19.pdf

[nirvana]

apparently Mr BRRRRR, the one and only Jay Powell is on the wires talking shite somewhere 

According to Sven aka northman trader

You guys realize the Powell is setting conditions to raise rates which will never be met. Hence it's meaningless. He'll never raise rates again

So if you still believe in the FED how about this BS from Powell 

Powell Feb 2020: $1 trillion budget deficits are unsustainable

Powell April 2021: $3 trillion budget deficits can be serviced just fine.

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, nirvana said:

apparently Mr BRRRRR, the one and only Jay Powell is on the wires talking shite somewhere 

According to Sven aka northman trader

You guys realize the Powell is setting conditions to raise rates which will never be met. Hence it's meaningless. He'll never raise rates again

So if you still believe in the FED how about this BS from Powell 

Powell Feb 2020: $1 trillion budget deficits are unsustainable

Powell April 2021: $3 trillion budget deficits can be serviced just fine.

I did say they needed to print around $12 trillion to avoid outright deflation,im a bit worried they arent printing enough,so i hope they dont taper anytime soon.I want to see what they do once inflation goes over 3% for a few months running.I think they will force the 30 year yield down a bit and the short end,then let the short end rise a bit,but hold the long end a bit below where it is now.

Euro should do well from the Feds next moves 

 

[Lightscribe]

Quick off piste crypto diversion: 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2021/04/14/coinbase-goes-public-record-ipo-bitcoin-exchange-live-updates/
 

$381 up from a reference price of $250 too much of a difference for me as per my comments yesterday. Still think it may fly after it’s initial pullback though, can really see the retail investors and big funds ploughing in. 

Chainlink is currently motoring towards $38. On the 1 day chart 99 day MACD is  heading in the right direction and looks like the bottom vs BTC is in. If it hits $50 in this run I may take some profit to get an allocation of Coinbase in via Binance depending (although it will be taxable).

Details on Binance here:

https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/0e553c69c6ab4265bf97aca31be6fbe7

[NogintheNog]

8 hours ago, JMD said:

You say your Aunt was tested, and that she has become part of the figures, but just to be clear can i ask what your Aunt's death certificate had recorded as cause of death, was it the tumour or was it covid?

Excuse me asking, but the reason i do so is that these type of stories coming from hospices, or where the person has died at home, but always from a diagnosed terminal illnesses, but that their deaths are recorded as covid deaths - are for me a proof of the manipulation of the statistics.

Hi JMD. Yes my Cousin said it was a Covid death. She just got weaker and weaker and I suppose I have to admit that the Covid infection likely weakened her further. However without Covid she had a Cancer death sentence sadly. To me that is a Cancer death.

[NogintheNog]

7 hours ago, planit said:

 

If there is an 80% efficacy for the virus then there is only 20% chance of catching it.

On top of that if there is a 50% less chance of passing it on if you do catch it then the propagation of the virus falls by 90% due to the virus (0.2 x 0.5). This is a huge drop and more than enough for herd immunity solely from the vaccine (ignoring the 30% of the population that have already had the virus and the 25%[guess] who are naturally immune).

I think we need to be really careful here that we don't confuse vaccine efficacy with vaccine immunisation. Efficacy is a measure of how much the vaccine will stop symptomatic infection, particularly hospitalisation. Just as asymptomatic people can spread the virus so can vaccinated people.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00075-X/fulltext

What does 95% COVID-19 vaccine efficacy really mean?

"It does not mean that 95% of people are protected from disease with the vaccine—a general misconception of vaccine protection also found in a Lancet Infectious Diseases Editorial."

What you should be saying is if there is an 80% efficacy for the virus then there is only 20% chance of becoming symptomatic. That's the difference.

Vaccinated people less likely to transmit coronavirus, Israeli study suggests

Study suggests?? Sounds more like wishful thinking to me.....

[Hancock]

Come on then which one of you tin-hatters is Earl Kitover?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/gold/mystery-man-used-fake-passport-buy-gold-bars-wins-access-160k/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Mystery man who used fake passport to buy gold bars wins access to £160k fortune

Brokers confounded by someone with a different name and face claiming ownership
 

ByHarry Brennan14 April 2021 • 6:00am

When an American man claimed in 2018 he was the true owner of around £160,000 worth of gold bars stored in a Swiss vault, alarm bells rang. 

There were two things wrong: this mystery man had a different name to the registered owner and seemed to look almost completely different. 

His explanation? He said he purchased 4kg (8.8lb) of gold bullion using a forged passport and had undergone facial reconstruction surgery, which explained what appeared to be “a significant change in his appearance”. 

It resulted in a two-year fact finding mission to get to the truth, which this month culminated in a hearing in the High Court. 

A judge ruled it was “more than likely” the unusual story was true, despite the “evidential picture” being “far from complete”. 

The gold bullion provider, BullionVault, now has legal permission to hand over the precious metal. It sought a court order on the matter due to fears of criminality and possible money laundering. 

The lawyers for the defence explained their client, Earl Kitover, bought gold via the London-based brokers during the financial crisis, which was stored in vaults in Switzerland and Singapore.

They said he used a fake name and a forged passport to avoid “anticipated gold bullion controls being threatened in the US” at the time. The American Government last used these powers during the Great Depression, when it ordered all interest in gold bullion be surrendered to the state. 

The matter was complicated by the fact the man seemed to look different to his old passport photo and there were concerns over “significant gaps in the chain of evidence which it should have been easy for Mr Kitover to address”, the court heard.

The man explained he had undergone plastic surgery, although could not remember when.

He was able to convince the judge by providing paperwork that appeared to establish a link between him and the details used to buy the gold bars. These included a long-term Chicago address, telephone number and letters from the American tax authorities. 

The judge ruled the use of forged documents did not prevent Mr Kitover from recovering his gold, but ordered he pay BullionVault’s court fees. 

Maurice Rifat, Mr Kitover’s lawyer, said: “His pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was reduced accordingly.”

A spokesman for BullionVault said: “The client's forgery, uncovered by our routine checks, put us in an impossible position. We made no claim on the bullion ourselves and we are grateful to the court for resolving this unusual case.”

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3 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Come on then which one of you tin-hatters is Earl Kitover?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/gold/mystery-man-used-fake-passport-buy-gold-bars-wins-access-160k/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

Mystery man who used fake passport to buy gold bars wins access to £160k fortune

Brokers confounded by someone with a different name and face claiming ownership
 

ByHarry Brennan14 April 2021 • 6:00am

When an American man claimed in 2018 he was the true owner of around £160,000 worth of gold bars stored in a Swiss vault, alarm bells rang. 

There were two things wrong: this mystery man had a different name to the registered owner and seemed to look almost completely different. 

His explanation? He said he purchased 4kg (8.8lb) of gold bullion using a forged passport and had undergone facial reconstruction surgery, which explained what appeared to be “a significant change in his appearance”. 

It resulted in a two-year fact finding mission to get to the truth, which this month culminated in a hearing in the High Court. 

A judge ruled it was “more than likely” the unusual story was true, despite the “evidential picture” being “far from complete”. 

The gold bullion provider, BullionVault, now has legal permission to hand over the precious metal. It sought a court order on the matter due to fears of criminality and possible money laundering. 

The lawyers for the defence explained their client, Earl Kitover, bought gold via the London-based brokers during the financial crisis, which was stored in vaults in Switzerland and Singapore.

They said he used a fake name and a forged passport to avoid “anticipated gold bullion controls being threatened in the US” at the time. The American Government last used these powers during the Great Depression, when it ordered all interest in gold bullion be surrendered to the state. 

The matter was complicated by the fact the man seemed to look different to his old passport photo and there were concerns over “significant gaps in the chain of evidence which it should have been easy for Mr Kitover to address”, the court heard.

The man explained he had undergone plastic surgery, although could not remember when.

He was able to convince the judge by providing paperwork that appeared to establish a link between him and the details used to buy the gold bars. These included a long-term Chicago address, telephone number and letters from the American tax authorities. 

The judge ruled the use of forged documents did not prevent Mr Kitover from recovering his gold, but ordered he pay BullionVault’s court fees. 

Maurice Rifat, Mr Kitover’s lawyer, said: “His pot of gold at the end of the rainbow was reduced accordingly.”

A spokesman for BullionVault said: “The client's forgery, uncovered by our routine checks, put us in an impossible position. We made no claim on the bullion ourselves and we are grateful to the court for resolving this unusual case.”

Errol? 

[kibuc]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

The issue is that our politcal class have become accustomed to lockdowns for a variety of reasons.Obsessed even.It really does have the feel of them wanting another lockdown,I'm jsut not sure the economy could stand it.

I think the (in)famous quote from Ferguson explains it neatly: "We couldn't get away with it in Europe, we thought… and then Italy did it. And we realised we could".

Orwell knew that power is not a mean to achieve your goal, it's a goal in itself. It's highly corruptive and highly addictive. Don't think for a moment that politicians from the past didn't dream of having totalitarian powers and ruling the nation iron-fist style, it's just that they knew (or thought) it would never happen for them in a democratic society and that showing their true colours would end their political lives. And then Italy did it, and they all realised they could.

[Lightscribe]

I know there’s some in here that are interested so a 2nd quick crypto update (no more I promise) 

As explained above it may hit $50 sooner rather than later, which I’ll keep tabs on the volume and as well as the Coinbase stock token today.
If LINK has got plenty more in the tank at that point, I’ll let it ride and get allocation of Coinbase from funds elsewhere depending how that moves. LINK may have some way to go still to reach it’s own parity with the current BTC price (it’s one of the only major cryptos that hasn’t done that yet)

 

 

[TNS]

Argo now back below 200p, tempted to have a punt in the hope of a quicker than average gain ! 

[sancho panza]

20 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza i think they will use both.We might see some QE still and a rate increase.The thing to remember here is the CBs havent really monetised government debt,they have monetised private debt by the government handing the printed money to the public and companies.So yes in pure simple terms the CBs monetised government debt,but the real affect was monetising private debt.

Why do that?,well because they want the private sector to take over the recovery from government once its in flow so governments structural deficits can be eliminated.Fed will be wanting to keep the long end from going up anymore i expect and the way to do that is to raise the short end to look like your taking inflation serious,but not letting the curve invert.

Main thing to watch is inflation.I dont think they will do anything before 3%,and then if they tighten too quickly,BK.

DB,thanks for that.I hadn't really looked at it that way before.

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Euro should do well from the Feds next moves 

 

Stronger Euro is one of my check lists pre BK.Are you seeing the Fed beginning to rpint more heavily?have you got a target roadmap wise for USD/EUro?

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

DB,thanks for that.I hadn't really looked at it that way before.

Stronger Euro is one of my check lists pre BK.Are you seeing the Fed beginning to rpint more heavily?have you got a target roadmap wise for USD/EUro?

No,i think they will keep it steady if they can,they will want the long end yield to drop a little bit though.Target for Euro v Dollar is 1.262 ,market wont be expecting that.Of course that assumes a European bank doesnt blow up first.

[BurntBread]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,i think they will keep it steady if they can,they will want the long end yield to drop a little bit though.Target for Euro v Dollar is 1.262 ,market wont be expecting that.Of course that assumes a European bank doesnt blow up first.

Do you have a view on which banks are most at risk? I'm guessing Deutche Bank must be at, or at least near, the top; but there other ones (Italian?) we should be keeping an eye on?

[feed]

 

GSK

 

 

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/glaxo-shares-rally-as-elliott-said-to-have-built-significant-stake--7871418.html

GlaxoSmithKline shares shot higher on Thursday as it emerged that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a multibillion-pound stake in the pharmaceuticals company.

 

[DurhamBorn]

David Hunter Twitter 

Listening to CalSTRS CIO on CNBC,one has to be very concerned about who's running these public pension funds today & the poor returns that will result. He's going on & on about climate change & how he's positioning the portfolio for that.Even more unfunded liabilities will result

[janch]

Thanks for this @feedas I was just looking at my account, refreshed it and saw the jump which I couldn't find any reason for.  In fact I nearly sold to lock in the profit but decided to hang on instead as it seems to be holding.

I realised I haven't had the divi due on 08/04.  Is it just delayed because it's a US share? I have it on LSE.

[leonardratso]

7 minutes ago, janch said:

Thanks for this @feedas I was just looking at my account, refreshed it and saw the jump which I couldn't find any reason for.  In fact I nearly sold to lock in the profit but decided to hang on instead as it seems to be holding.

I realised I haven't had the divi due on 08/04.  Is it just delayed because it's a US share?

hmm, strange that, i got my divi from them, was very small amount cos i dont hold a lot, but it definately came in on lloyds isa (rebadged halifax).

08 Apr 2021

GLAXOSMITHKLINE ORD GBP0.25

[Harley]

1 hour ago, feed said:

 

GSK

 

 

https://www.sharecast.com/news/news-and-announcements/glaxo-shares-rally-as-elliott-said-to-have-built-significant-stake--7871418.html

GlaxoSmithKline shares shot higher on Thursday as it emerged that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a multibillion-pound stake in the pharmaceuticals company.

 

Ta.  Was looking to add more once the monthly signal came in, as it now has, if this counts as valid!  Wish they had waited a week! 

PS:  Oh can't, it just hit my allocation today but very tempted to lay on a trade! 

PPS:  Alternatively, I might ride this and dump.  Cut debt last year but still 130% debt to equity and intangibles are £23bn versus equity of £3.5bn or half of total assets.  Even for their sector that's out of my comfort zone.  Just been looking at some asian pharmas with none of that baggage.

[janch]

I've just realised I didn't get the GSK divi because I didn't buy it in time.  Doh

[Harley]

46 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

hmm, strange that, i got my divi from them, was very small amount cos i dont hold a lot, but it definately came in on lloyds isa (rebadged halifax).

08 Apr 2021

GLAXOSMITHKLINE ORD GBP0.25

Yep, I've had mine on 08/04/21.  6% atm!

[CVG]

Luckily I had to add a few K of my new ISA allocation to GSK a week ago in order to rebalance it up. Buy low Sell high. Nearly every part of my portfolio gets rebalanced in April. I've also seen funds flowing into PM's following their recent falls.