Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Apricot cake today from the bead maker.  Very nice!  How I like it, no sugar and more olive oil than butter!  I did some work for GSK on the retail stuff.  Liked the people, not the management stuff, and it felt a bit like my dad used to talk about Marconi.  Some real value there though.  Just may be better plays out there in the bigger world.  People really need to be thinking about looking wide and far these days.

PS: Recipe please?!

 

[DurhamBorn]

I hope Bp stays down a while and they can use cashflow to buy back shares from woke funds around this price or lower.The more they can buy now the better.Its at least 60% for buy backs,so i hope as long as the stock is below £4 they use the other 40% to buy back stock as well.They can pay down more debt once there is a £4 handle on the shares.I hope they dont use the extra 40% on more green stuff though.I want all the woke funds out,i dont want any hanging around to make money later.Its all sentiment at the moment.

 

[Ashby]

Email I received today from an online shoe seller; more evidence of inflation (I suppose rather than just greed).  This time expensive Northampton shoes.

Church Brand Repositioning

 

We have just been informed that Church Shoes Ltd have decided to increase their prices to reposition their brand at a higher price point. As a simple example, in the UK the price of Consul, a black calf, toe-cap Oxford will increase from the current price of £495 to £720.

To say we were shocked to see this announcement on Monday would be an understatement. We have worked closely with the brand for decades and had no prior warning that this was happening so we are genuinely struggling to understand the thinking behind this strategy and the implications this will have for us as a retailer of the brand going forward.

[sleepwello'nights]

30 minutes ago, Ashby said:

Email I received today from an online shoe seller; more evidence of inflation (I suppose rather than just greed).  This time expensive Northampton shoes.

Church Brand Repositioning

 

We have just been informed that Church Shoes Ltd have decided to increase their prices to reposition their brand at a higher price point. As a simple example, in the UK the price of Consul, a black calf, toe-cap Oxford will increase from the current price of £495 to £720.

To say we were shocked to see this announcement on Monday would be an understatement. We have worked closely with the brand for decades and had no prior warning that this was happening so we are genuinely struggling to understand the thinking behind this strategy and the implications this will have for us as a retailer of the brand going forward.

They were a high end brand in any case that price hike, almost 50%, can't be justified on raw material, labour cost and overhead inflationary increases. Just as well I've accumulated several pairs over the years. They wear well and when they are repaired they come back looking like new. 

Brand repositioning indeed? Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

They were a high end brand in any case that price hike, almost 50%, can't be justified on raw material, labour cost and overhead inflationary increases. Just as well I've accumulated several pairs over the years. They wear well and when they are repaired they come back looking like new. 

Brand repositioning indeed? Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

i've posted on here before about my RM Williams aussie boots.  I have pairs well over 10 years old, still going stong.  600 bucks new now, but that's 60 bucks a year at most, and they are a joy to wear.  They were the only thing I had on my feet for a two month crisscrossing of a country a few years back, through snow, sun, and dust, and they came out fine.

 

in shoes, paying for quality is worth it.  

[leonardratso]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Leo. How do you find that Haliwide platform? I have one that was originally a TD Waterhouse , terrible platform IMO. Limited funds, ETFs, very bad real time data ADR's don't seem to ever move.

I have all my dogs in mine, Scottish play etc. Alas, dear Panther the great I knew him well. Just the fact its free is why I'm still there, but £46 a year plus £9 trades from next April. I will be moving the pets to a new dog house.

its actually not bad, i  have a gia and an isa in lloyds share dealing,  £20 platform fee for 6 months, or is it 12 i cant rmember, £12 a trade going down to £8 if you do more than 7 a quarter i think, but i do the regular investing for £1.50 a buy instead, only covers UK shares/funds on regular investor, either a 1 off or on a schedule. 4 buy points a month offered.

Foreign/fx fees isnt anything to write home about but range is not bad.

t212 i use for fast buys and wider range, but dont trust its longevity as much.

[Harley]

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Looks to me as if they are going to reduce volume and want to maintain or increase profitability with a much smaller scale operation.  

Exactly what I was thinking in my earlier post on inflation.  A polarised market.  A move by some to focus on the quality of earnings.

[Harley]

9 hours ago, Harley said:

Having japped on about value, etc and the general state of things monetary, I've been switched on to some emerging internet stuff about how to survive the Great Reset.  In Elizabeth Kuber Ross terms, maybe I've moved on to the Bargaining phase.  It's all pioneering stuff with scare porn and paid for newsletters but worth a crawl through the internet to get envisioning.  One thing I liked was the idea of a bifurcated setup where the Central Bank crypto coins are transactional but absolutely not a store of value while those who managed to hold onto their wealth reverted to other crypto, PMs, property, shares in the picks and shovels (Coinbase?!), etc.  Good time to map out the "to be" setup and a transition plan.  Clock's ticking.

Looks like @201p is already on the case and deserves more traction/support:

I like the link in his opening post that the Great Reset might already have happened!  Makes you do a 180 and exercise some mental agility!

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

[Barnsey]

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

The thread deserves more attention and a far larger discussion than just about Bitcoin.  It all works for me and my "burning building" metaphor. 

Maybe our BK is a distraction in the bigger picture or is a key part (milestone) of the bigger picture.  Again, context is everything as prepping for the BK might look a bit different.

We are in danger of thinking walking with a red flag in front of this threatening new horseless carriage will be sufficient.

That’s exactly it Harley. It’s what I’ve been trying to allude to on this thread for some time (probably not very clearly on my part) whilst trying not to derail it into a crypto thread. This is the catalyst that will enable the next stage.

I notice in the other thread you ask

‘So far the conversation has been very crypto centric which is reasonable but there must be more to the "to be" world in terms of other stores of value.’

The answer is yes, so much more than a store of value or currency. AI and the government blockchains will form the fabric of society from living, manufacturing, agriculture, transport as well as transactions. Hence the 4th industrial revolution.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

We are currently in the dot com stage before the bust. Much of the crypto space is filled with shitcoins/tokens that are pump and dump clones of others which 99% of will disappear through the BK crash and regulation. But like the dot com they’ll be the Amazons and Apple in there that will come out the other side and be part of the technology and infrastructure that’s to come.

https://www.swift.com/sites/default/files/documents/swift_events_infopaper_distributed_ledgers_smart_contracts_business_standards_and_iso_20022.pdf

[sleepwello'nights]

11 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I flew over parts of Afghanistan on a flight. I sat and stared at the mountain ranges. You don’t win wars in such a place.

Exactly. The Wind and the Sun were both looking down at a traveller on his journey. He was wearing a coat. The Wind said to the Sun lets see which of us can get him to take his coat off. OK said the Sun.

The Wind threw a strong gust at the man, he pulled his coat tight and carried on, undaunted the Wind blew up a fierce storm, the man drew his coat even tighter to him and carried on. Its my turn said the Sun and he started gently warming the weather, the traveller relaxed and loosened his grip on his coat, the Sun continued to shine down on the man, the warmth was so pleasant the traveller took off his coat. 

A different strategy to direct force is needed in that country, economic dependence that benefits the populace rather than direct force or lining the pockets of those with power and control.

[Harley]

30 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s exactly it Harley. It’s what I’ve been trying to allude to on this thread for some time (probably not very clearly on my part) whilst trying not to derail it into a crypto thread. This is the catalyst that will enable the next stage.

I notice in the other thread you ask

‘So far the conversation has been very crypto centric which is reasonable but there must be more to the "to be" world in terms of other stores of value.’

The answer is yes, so much more than a store of value or currency. AI and the government blockchains will form the fabric of society from living, manufacturing, agriculture, transport as well as transactions. Hence the 4th industrial revolution.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/regulation-for-the-fourth-industrial-revolution

Thanks so much.  There in black and white. 

Ok  I'm in:

"We have established a partnership with the World Economic Forum to shape the global governance of technological innovation".

Lots more like gene editing comments which maybe outs the currrnt vaccine approach into context.

I'll leave it there, using the other thread for more (hopefully get some decent talk going), but I wonder if this is the "real" macro discussion to be had, maybe even not just post BK as we look into the period to 2030 and beyond.  I fear covid has become an accelerant.

PS: As an aside I'm thinking debt jubilee tied to CBDC adoption.

[planit]

Shell To Put Energy Transition Plan To Shareholder Vote

The problem is here:

"Shell is also set to tie the bonuses for its top executive directors more closely to the group’s performance in reaching its net-zero goals, if shareholders approve the plan at the annual general meeting in May"

 

There can't have a situation where directors win bonuses by sabotaging the company profits. The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

There will be a small number of vocal activist investors plus all the woke fund managers (where it is not their money) voting this through. I am not sure if I know of another situation where directors are rewarded contrary to company performance.

 

Pretty shocking if this gets voted through, does anyone have any suggestions of companies where this might not happen?

[JimmyTheBruce]

13 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I do wonder with the oil stocks if the market senses to much being spent on the new 'green' initiatives by the likes of BP and Shell???

Got the below through yesterday regarding the Shell AGM.  I do hope it's all just marketing bullshit, but I'll be voting against it anyway.

BOARD REQUESTS SUPPORT FOR ENERGY SECTOR’S FIRST SHAREHOLDER ADVISORY VOTE ON AN ENERGY TRANSITION STRATEGY
Today also marks the publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy, which has been published for submission to a shareholder advisory vote at the 2021 AGM. The document is published simultaneously with the Notice of Meeting and shall be deemed to be incorporated in, and form part of, the Notice of Meeting.

The publication of Shell’s Energy Transition Strategy follows detailed conversations with shareholders and describes Shell’s energy transition strategy as we work towards becoming a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, in step with society’s progress towards the goal of the UN Paris Agreement on climate change, including our emissions targets. The report aims to help investors and wider society gain a better understanding of how we are addressing the risks and opportunities of the energy transition.

We are the first energy company to submit our energy transition strategy to shareholders for an advisory vote and will be publishing an update every three years until 2050. Every year, starting in 2022, we will also seek an advisory vote on our progress towards our plans and targets. The vote is purely advisory and will not be binding on shareholders.

The Shell Energy Transition Strategy is available at www.shell.com/agm.

 

[Harley]

6 minutes ago, planit said:

The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

It's a theme.  I know of property leasing and management companies taking responsibility for leasee energy usage.  Presumably things will be written into contracts. 

[JimmyTheBruce]

13 minutes ago, planit said:

Shell To Put Energy Transition Plan To Shareholder Vote

The problem is here:

"Shell is also set to tie the bonuses for its top executive directors more closely to the group’s performance in reaching its net-zero goals, if shareholders approve the plan at the annual general meeting in May"

 

There can't have a situation where directors win bonuses by sabotaging the company profits. The oil companies are now counting Scope 3 emissions - they include those that aren’t produced at a company’s facilities and that customers produce when they burn fossil fuels. So the less oil they produce the lower the emissions.

There will be a small number of vocal activist investors plus all the woke fund managers (where it is not their money) voting this through. I am not sure if I know of another situation where directors are rewarded contrary to company performance.

 

Pretty shocking if this gets voted through, does anyone have any suggestions of companies where this might not happen?

Beat me to it planit!  Come on, let us newbies get a scoop will you 😉

[planit]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's a theme.  I know of property leasing and management companies taking responsibility for leasee energy usage.  Presumably things will be written into contracts. 

I haven't got a problem with including the emissions in their figures per se.

 But in your example I doubt the management company directors could earn more bonus if the property was empty.

[BurntBread]

14 minutes ago, JimmyTheBruce said:

Got the below through yesterday regarding the Shell AGM.  I do hope it's all just marketing bullshit, but I'll be voting against it anyway.

Apologies for the newbie question. I hold RDSB through Hargreaves Lansdown. Do I have the right to attend the AGM, and to vote? If so, how do I prove I'm a shareholder? I guess you can take your letter along, @JimmyTheBruce, but I haven't seen any communication about any shareholder votes on the HL platform.

[wherebee]

Talking to a builder mate today, does a range of medium size projects across australia.  timber costs up through the roof.  insulation and other supplies from overseas fucked and prices rising. tradie salaries up in some sectors by 50% since mid 2020.

He and I talked about inflation back in 2020, so he bought extra storage space for materials, stocked up, and is now pretty fucking happy with me.  He forward bought timber direct from the sawmills here in Vic and save himself - in his words - 25% minimum on prices this month.

Inflation demon out of the bottle here in Oz.

[M S E Refugee]

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

[JimmyTheBruce]

52 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

Apologies for the newbie question. I hold RDSB through Hargreaves Lansdown. Do I have the right to attend the AGM, and to vote? If so, how do I prove I'm a shareholder? I guess you can take your letter along, @JimmyTheBruce, but I haven't seen any communication about any shareholder votes on the HL platform.

Most of my stuff is held with interactive investor.  I think I may have inadvertently changed a setting which means i now get a lot of emails through from the firms that organise the AGMs.  Even in the event that I don't, ii do send me notifications and their platform allows me to vote (and I assume they then consolidate and pass those votes on).  Can't comment on HL as I don't hold anything there, but perhaps one of the other guys knows?

Oh, and pretty much all the meetings are still being done remotely.  I guess its easier to mute the nutcase ranting about crazy wokeness than it is to physically remove him from a building.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Talking to a builder mate today, does a range of medium size projects across australia.  timber costs up through the roof.  insulation and other supplies from overseas fucked and prices rising. tradie salaries up in some sectors by 50% since mid 2020.

He and I talked about inflation back in 2020, so he bought extra storage space for materials, stocked up, and is now pretty fucking happy with me.  He forward bought timber direct from the sawmills here in Vic and save himself - in his words - 25% minimum on prices this month.

Inflation demon out of the bottle here in Oz.

I bought a load of insulation board and timber a year ago.  Still not enough!

[Harley]

35 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I've sold all of my Oil stocks over the past few days and I have redeployed some of that cash into Lukoil as Russia seems to be a much safer jurisdiction to invest in at the moment.

All this Woke environmental nonsense that plagues the Western World doesn't inspire confidence.

Interesting the lens you choose to read geo-politics through.  US sanctions on Russia because of say Crimea or Ukraine or Putin's speech at the WEF and his little chat with Merkel?  Probably a bit of everything.  The challenge is to avoid the crossfire.  There are some far better markets out there but suppose our lot pull the plug on us, for our own good of course!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, planit said:

I haven't got a problem with including the emissions in their figures per se.

 But in your example I doubt the management company directors could earn more bonus if the property was empty.

Everyone, CEOs down, are being mandated by those higher up (big shareholders, who in turn.....) to do their bit to impose the agenda.  You want x, you behave like y.  A bit like social media already has done.  It's a broad concerted effort.  Groupthink at least, a lot more sinister at worst.  Best plug that into our Macro models. 

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Lots more like gene editing comments which maybe outs the currrnt vaccine approach into context.

I leave these links here for you. Note the timeframe in the first link. Make of them what you will.

European Commission Vaccine passport roadmap 2018-2022:

https://ec.europa.eu/health/sites/health/files/vaccination/docs/2019-2022_roadmap_en.pdf

ID2020 - UK parliament 

https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/6355/pdf/

Digital ID and included partners:

https://www.weforum.org/press/2018/01/digital-identity-why-it-matters-and-why-it-s-important-we-get-it-right/

WEF:

https://www.weforum.org/events/global-technology-governance-summit-2021/sessions/scaling-up-digital-identity-systems

World Bank paper:

http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/199411519691370495/Technology-Landscape-for-Digital-Identification.pdf