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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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13 minutes ago, C-gull said:

Something I have been mulling, and perhaps this is more short term trading than this thread in which case I'll gladly drop it and move it somehwere more appropriate, but here goes;

Given that we are trying to position ourselves to own companies that are benefiting from government spending, perhaps there's money to be made in looking at the contracts the government announces, and trying to front run the news and make money off a bounce.

https://www.contractsfinder.service.gov.uk/Search/Results

This link is where the government publishes its contracts by value, you can search and filter by subject etc. As an example with all the testing stuff kicking around over the last year (and looking to continue for the short term at least), keeping an eye on keywords like "lateral flow" etc could give a decent indication that a particular company is about to be paid handsomly. As an example, Illumina ILMN recently were awarded a contract for some testing related activity and had a massive (short term) bounce. Now, I haven't made any money on this this is just something I've been considering. Could be worth a punt with some beer money at the very least.

I'd really welcome some thoughts; tell me I'm a moron if that's what I'm being, etc

That could work. But would involve lot of detective work i think, so i prefer to stay more macro.

However i do try a similar approach, but maybe for longer term investing and for US stocks. I posted the link below a few weeks back. It shows 80 companies the author has identified as having long term relationships/big dollar value contracts with US government. The idea is that these companies will be the ones lobbying very successfully for government spending programmes, and so will be big winners (whatever awful mess their balance sheets are in!!)... I wonder if there is a similarly compiled 'entrenched interests' list for UK/French/German companies? 

Bracing_for_the_Hangover.pdf (mcusercontent.com)

 

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4 minutes ago, JMD said:

That could work. But would involve lot of detective work i think, so i prefer to stay more macro.

However i do try a similar approach, but maybe for longer term investing and for US stocks. I posted the link below a few weeks back. It shows 80 companies the author has identified as having long term relationships/big dollar value contracts with US government. The idea is that these companies will be the ones lobbying very successfully for government spending programmes, and so will be big winners (whatever awful mess their balance sheets are in!!)... I wonder if there is a similarly compiled 'entrenched interests' list for UK/French/German companies? 

Bracing_for_the_Hangover.pdf (mcusercontent.com)

 

Brilliant, thank you. I've been sick so I've not kept up to date the past month or so so I have some homework to do!

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DoINeedOne

A small update to the INFL ETF They seem to sold of most of EuroNext and increase cash to just over 2%

Nothing major really

1036895866_Screenshot2021-05-06at12_14_23.thumb.png.ac5c60792ad05c80b922fa0435edb377.png

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geordie_lurch

Haldane at the BOE apparently wanted to taper QE but is off so not sure if they are ignoring it or not given the following...

Then from the BOE report here

"In the central projections of the MPC’s May Report, the economy experiences a temporary period of strong GDP growth and a temporary period of modestly above-target CPI inflation, after which growth and inflation fall back, with inflation around the target two and three years ahead."

cpi-inflation.png?h=591&la=en&w=1312&has

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5 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Haldane at the BOE apparently wanted to taper QE

I wondered who it was.....he'll be getting a 'promotion' soon then xD

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geordie_lurch
1 minute ago, nirvana said:

I wondered who it was.....he'll be getting a 'promotion' soon then xD

Looks like this guy apparently xD

 

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12 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I remember the dotcom years, the utter idiocy of it and the hubris of some of those dotcom firms. It was quite something seeing companies valued at tens of billions go to virtually zero over a couple of years 

if you truly believe it's all 'cock n bollocks' we're setting up for the short of a lifetime!!!

Imagine the chat down the pub (or maybe the supermarket car park) yeah got a Lambo shorting the shit out of all that overpriced shite xD:Jumping:

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DurhamBorn
26 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Kolanovic gets on the DB roadmap, and points out how institutional money is going to flood into our favourite stocks. 

image.thumb.png.5a3c7295e360b23c1bb44ca08fa7122d.png

"we expect the market to be late in recognising the inflection"

We used to mention how the market was looking the wrong way at a key inflection point,funny how now more and more are coming onto the roadmap.

The liquidity leaving bonds and growth type companies will be incredible.What people are still missing is this isnt a short term thing,its a cycle change,and will continue until likely around 2028.

I also dont think most pension holders in those 60/400 or 40/60 in drawdown realise that even if the market flatlined and bonds sold off some,they could still be looking at a 15% drawdown before fees over the cycle.Add in the inflation,the fees its suddenly 80%ish down if my 65% cycle inflation is right,but even half that its 50% down before any drawdown.

I pretty convinced that anyone starting to draw 4% a year from today in a 40/60 fund will see the fund almost empty in less than ten years if they keep withdrawing at a set cash amount.I dont think people understand the risk at all.

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Right here's an interesting chart for you geeks and armchair economists :P

One of my financial advisors says we're going for a 'double dip' to 1920 levels......what sayest the dosbods massive???

 

IRs.jpeg

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1 hour ago, planit said:

The Singapore government action has naff all to do with the Value of Crypto currencies. It doesn't suggest support of Crypto currencies or the value of Bitcoin.

Crypto bulls are misleading on a lot of what they say and will drag unsophisticated people into the investment to potentially be slaughtered.

The article is about using blockchain to revolutionise archaic, inefficient and crap processes but none of that requires a crypto currency to function, in the long term a real digital currency will help with the transactions but there is no reason why the blockchain transactions couldn't trigger a S$ transaction at a bank once the transaction is confirmed.

 

Currently CBs love the cryptos as they are like a top drawer where all hot money gets drained into so that real inflation can stay down. At some point in the future the whole drawer will be dumped, go up in smoke.

 

Let's get some facts straight, there is no space for 2000 competing crypto currencies. 95%+ will go to nothing once the useful winners are worked out. On top of that the future successful crypto currencies might not even be around yet. That means 100% of current crypto currencies might be worthless in 10 years time.

People will use the ones that are the most convenient and best at what they want. If I was starting from scratch I would say a 50% industry/50% gold backed crypto would be good as a store of value and a government supported* one would be best for my current account and transactions. Do either of these exist yet as I can start moving my finances over?

 

I hope everyone reading this thread has a proper get-out plan for crypto and invests/trades in it assuming it will go to zero at some point. I also hope this thread gets it's fair share of crypto billionaires, a lot of money will be made. The other side is $3tn+ will be lost.

 

* I believe the transactional ones will all end up as government based. Mainly because they HAVE to have control of their own country and they are also willing to change laws, cheat, lie and steal to get what they want.

 

Planit, i actually agree with most of what you write above. However, in terms of getting 'slaughtered' (your phrase). I have written before that - currently - i view the crypto sector as highly speculative (hopefully the sector risk profile changes over time), rather similar in fact to the clutch of junior silver minors i bought couple years ago. But like all sensible investing (like to think we are all very sensible on here), i only invest in things that i understand and with money i can afford to lose. Plus for extra insurance, and as i invest for the long term, i am taking the same approach as i took for my silver minors, i.e. i remove my original capitol after the asset has run up, and leave remainder in for the ('helter-skelter!!', but risk) free ride. 

...should add that judging when/if there will be any such asset 'run-up' is still definitely a risk element for me, but we are all mostly adherents to the macro investing universe on here, so i actually find that type of thinking/focus helps a lot in achieving the positioning (...ok 'timing', there i've said it!!)... Anyway just my thoughts and to be fully transparent i have only allocated 5% of my portfolio to crypto (coins/crypto-miners/companies such as micro strategy/coinbase), i don't intent putting any more capitol into the sector, and so far i have not yet removed all of my original capitol stake.    

 

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Chewing Grass
Just now, nirvana said:

One of my financial advisors says we're going for a 'double dip' to 1920 levels......what sayest the dosbods massive???

The government better bail my private pension out as those fuckers force me to save in it for their benefit and my 'retirement', perhaps this is why they want to euthanise as many old folk as possible.

Cunts.

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DurhamBorn

 

 

5 minutes ago, nirvana said:

Right here's an interesting chart for you geeks and armchair economists :P

One of my financial advisors says we're going for a 'double dip' to 1920 levels......what sayest the dosbods massive???

 

IRs.jpeg

 -6.2% real rates on my roadmap,range -3.4% to -7.8% 

Cycle inflation 63%,to stop government bust 34% above rates,so 30% rates over the cycle,of course rates will be back loaded towards the end.

Got to go,the dole is ringing xD

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6 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The government better bail my private pension out as those fuckers force me to save in it for their benefit and my 'retirement', perhaps this is why they want to euthanise as many old folk as possible.

Cunts.

agree they're all cunts but surely paying into a pension is better than getting taxed at 40%!? :P

And if you had a Sipp and invested wisely you'd be rich man! Rich I tell yee! Now what did I do with those RM shares xD

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41 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

A small update to the INFL ETF They seem to sold of most of EuroNext and increase cash to just over 2%

Nothing major really

1036895866_Screenshot2021-05-06at12_14_23.thumb.png.ac5c60792ad05c80b922fa0435edb377.png

Interesting change as HK invest for the long term, and i thought that the stock exchanges were a big trend value/thesis for them. 

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I've got a new support line for WTI.......and it mentions 911, it's an omen :P

 

Screenshot_2021-05-06_14-41-35.png

edit: that's not a 911 but nice wheels 

E_uUOfyDPdjLrRaRyuf6YkODxeQJeqq2al_9yGZlWuM.thumb.jpg.286e85835d4b912f07133796ba864af2.jpg

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.....

Got to go,the dole is ringing xD

 
How do YOU manage it?...with the MOOLAH you have in stocks etc??? xD
 
SURELY if ya have over £16K YOU get sweet FA?
 
MID-Fifties (NOT working) drawing small personal pension @ £5K PA can they get anything FREE from the C*** GOV?
 
ASKING for a Friend:ph34r:
 
47 minutes ago, nirvana said:

agree they're all cunts but surely paying into a pension is better than getting taxed at 40%!? :P

And if you had a Sipp and invested wisely you'd be rich man! Rich I tell yee! Now what did I do with those RM shares xD

 
YOU sold to me at a LOVELY YRS price.... THANKS me 'ol mucker, i'll sent this EE FOX over to frog-land that will CHEER ya UP! :Jumping:
 
image.jpeg.b78f0ad8662409671bcc07ea75f25f2c.jpeg
 
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what tools are we using to short all this crypto shite partisans? guess I need to find the crypto thread too....

saying that made a few shekels on shitcoins today so far :P:Jumping:

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You'd have to have rather large balls to short any crypto here.  It's a mania based on zero fundamentals and therefore completely impossible to know both how high they will go and when they will crash.

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27 minutes ago, nirvana said:

what tools are we using to short all this crypto shite partisans? guess I need to find the crypto thread too....

saying that made a few shekels on shitcoins today so far :P:Jumping:

Plenty of options. Basically if you want to short crypto you short BTC as the whole market moves with it when it majorly shifts. Alt-coin crypto shorting is very quick way to liquidation. Market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent and all that...Remember we’re still to reach peak clown world yet.

Fundamentals all went out the window long ago with Tesla and the FAANGs (is that a band?) and it would have taken a brave man (and now broke) to short any of those.

You can use Binance, KuCoin and all the major exchanges etc for shorts/longs. Bitmex for the big leverage trading. Only for the brave and slightly mad, I’m sure you’ll be fine. ;) Good luck!

https://www.bitmex.com

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24 minutes ago, AWW said:

It's a mania based on zero fundamentals

to be fair that's not 100% true....us rebels were harking on about it over 10 years when we realised what a scam FIAT is :P

That's mainly why the FED and other CBs are complete cunts but some eCONomists seem to think they know what they are doing xD

I trade with large balls and tight stops 9_9......Silver threatening to break out again :ph34r:

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7 minutes ago, nirvana said:

to be fair that's not 100% true....us rebels were harking on about it over 10 years when we realised what a scam FIAT is :P

That's mainly why the FED and other CBs are complete cunts but some eCONomists seem to think they know what they are doing xD

I trade with large balls and tight stops 9_9......Silver threatening to break out again :ph34r:

Also if you want to talk yourself out of doing anything too crazy, I recommend following REKT for a bit of grounding on Twitter which posts the losses on liquidated positions on Bitmex. :)

 

940CB230-554B-4C86-8F33-791751C519D7.jpeg

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45 minutes ago, AWW said:

You'd have to have rather large balls to short Tesla here.  It's a mania based on zero fundamentals and therefore completely impossible to know both how high they will go and when they will crash.

Corrected for you B|

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