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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

For anyone wanting to get shares in one of the largest platforms selling Cryptocurrency (like those selling mining equipment in the gold rush of old) Coinbase (COIN) have come down a decent amount from their initial offering and something I'm going to be taking a small punt on.

You're a braver man than me! NOW that is a good example of something that should have been shorted from day 1 :P

I think there's a thread on here about 'coincrap' somewhere :o

edit- coinarse that's it......I asked @goldbug9999what he had in this portfolio earlier cos there is no doubt he's a bit of a 'clever bastard' but he's not biting :ph34r:

Disclaimer: I have a coinbase pro account....seems ok for me

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silver holding above 27!

sorry couldn't resist, I'll be off now xD

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SpectrumFX
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,but best way to get free years is claim specified adult childcare credits for children under 12 you babysit as a grandparent.Im only 2 years short,but im claiming them every year now incase they increase years needed etc

 

Thanks for that. I've just sent my mum the link with the form.

It looks like she's due about 10 years worth of back dated contributions!

 

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15 minutes ago, nirvana said:

silver holding above 27!

sorry couldn't resist, I'll be off now xD

I smell a monkeyhammer

cat.gif.e599f87e929e16658683d60383bac6b6.gif

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16 minutes ago, Loki said:

monkeyhammer

The Federal Reserve appears willing to monkey-hammer interest rates so low, and for so long, even the most dedicated savers will finally give up in exasperation :ph34r:

Disclaimer: I want to get out of my ETF and put it all into shorting shitcoins.......this is NOT financial advice....and certainly not for widows and orphans :P

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6 hours ago, janch said:

Good news as I already have some:).  Someone on here mentioned it a while back and said directors were buying so it seemed like a good idea to do the same.......:D

Have bought forward a purchase of this. Cheers.

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5 hours ago, AWW said:

The thing about fiat is, no matter how big a scam it is, you have to pay taxes in sterling and you (mostly) have to buy commods in USD. And AFAIK, even the most ardent crypto traders track a crypto's performance against USD.

By the way, I'm not anti-crypto. It's just that, within the current financial system, I think it is overvalued. I have come to think of it as a bit like gold in that its value lies in the energy used to mine it - energy which can't be recovered in either case - but without offering the security that gold does. How much would crypto be worth if the Internet is split into different networks, for example - or blocked altogether in your country.

It's a non productive asset. It's value relies on being able to sell it on to someone else at a higher value later. It doesn't grow. But you could argue the same about gold or housing. They have utility. As do good coins. 

They will grow in value, until they don't.

But these are unprecedented times. They even came into existance because of central bank policy. The others existed but their prices were pumped higher by it. Until that changes....

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Lightscribe
49 minutes ago, 23rdian said:

It's a non productive asset. It's value relies on being able to sell it on to someone else at a higher value later. It doesn't grow. But you could argue the same about gold or housing. They have utility. As do good coins. 

They will grow in value, until they don't.

But these are unprecedented times. They even came into existance because of central bank policy. The others existed but their prices were pumped higher by it. Until that changes....

You could argue that Fiat is depreciating in your bank account against inflation and doesn’t grow.

But in regards to crypto there’s other options.

What about PAGT? Perth Mint crypto.

https://pmgt.io

Does this make it any different from an ETF?

Or PAXG?
https://www.paxos.com/paxgold/ 

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14 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You could argue that Fiat is depreciating in your bank account against inflation and doesn’t grow.

But in regards to crypto there’s other options.

What about PAGT? Perth Mint crypto.

https://pmgt.io

Does this make it any different from an ETF?

Or PAXG?
https://www.paxos.com/paxgold/ 

I think fiat is the other side of the coin.

I'm not having a pop at crypto. I hold some and am looking to obtain more. But I do see it as a primarly a response to the current situation.

Thanks for the links.

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DurhamBorn
23 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

 

Exactly,like we have always said on here,the cycle would end with a huge fiscal impulse.They are going around the banks  and direct into the economy.

Financial markets first,then it comes out of those into the economy.Thats why most people get things back to front.Bank balance sheets are fine mostly as long as there is no BK,but they arent lending much because of lack of demand and fear over bad loans,mostly CP

CBs and government are trying to lift base money sky high,then sit back and rake the tax in with negative rates for a cycle.Its as obvious as you can get from a macro point and it will cut the deficit by 40%.

If growth stocks sell off at the same time as crypto and bonds then there is going to be a massive amount of money chasing inflation assets.They are actually a very small part of total capital now.

No wonder Cayman Island billionaires are building stakes in tobacco companies .

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King of Fools
10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker if you earned over £6200 in two tax years PAYE you will of paid enough NI for 6 months JSA none means tested.Claim April 6th so in new tax year of course so no tax on it.When it runs out then claim none means tested ESA,you can only get that for 12 months none means tested,but it goes off last years NI so by claiming after the JSA runs out you get it.You can get 18 months all in none means tested.

Likely il get booted off ESA when they review you,but it takes at least 6 months.I did it before and i got zero points,they said there isnt anything wrong with you,i said thankyou good to hear it xD .My old mentor made me go to the quacks every couple of years and claim anxiety,depression etc,but tell the quack you wanted pills but not be off work,then just sling the prescription,that way when you actually needed it you had the history,just tell the quack it was really bad and you needed time off etc,they see your history of soldiering on and just hand you the sick note or as they are now called fit note xD

 

Can you get JSA if you left your job voluntarily (which I thought you did)?

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Napier here aligning with much of this thread.

He focuses on the political risks for us, which is something I know posters have mentioned, but (as posters have also highlighted) I don't think we take into account as much as we should.

Good or bad, they write the laws at the end of the day.

 

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8 hours ago, kibuc said:

Everything off-chain I assume, just another step towards paper bitcoin. I'm running out of I told you so's.

I rememebr when Antonopoulos would keep repeating in his speaches "Your keys - your bitcoin, not your keys - not your bitcoin" like a milion times in a row. I guess not too many listened.

Even though Bitcoin is another nail in the environment.. 

Its a waste of electricity.. 

Fiat, Crypto, Gold.,, all worth fuck all if dumb arse humans kill ourselves.

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Castlevania
6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Bank balance sheets are fine mostly as long as there is no BK,but they arent lending much because of lack of demand and fear over bad loans,mostly CP

Is that why central banks are buying up corporate bond issuances? Is that due to banks being unwilling to lend or simply part of QE to lower overall borrowing costs?

Also does anyone know the reason for Intrepid’s share price being hammered yesterday. I thought results, but they were earlier in the week - unless a very delayed reaction? I can’t find anything other than that on their investors website or via a Google search.

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16 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Fundamentals all went out the window long ago with Tesla and the FAANGs (is that a band?) and it would have taken a brave man (and now broke) to short any of those.

ok I've taken on board your post now and this is where charts come into it......I know it's a fundies thread with the occasional chart BUT most of em have too much 'shite on em'.....MAs, RSIs, blah blah, they all lag and are all bollocks :)  

A basic Tesla chart shows you the short back in Jan! nobody is listening to my simple point about charts regarding lines....

I've even drawn a second line to show you the simplicity of price action xD

you're welcome :P

Anyway bitmex you reckon it is for shorting? cheers I'll be off again :D

 

 

Screenshot_2021-05-07_08-13-09.png

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Also does anyone know the reason for Intrepid’s share price being hammered yesterday

I did a search $IPI on twatter but this is the best I could come up with.....good fundies you say? I might buy some for the bounce :P

 

E0umQ85WQAMo9Ld.png

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Lightscribe
57 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I did a search $IPI on twatter but this is the best I could come up with.....good fundies you say? I might buy some for the bounce :P

 

E0umQ85WQAMo9Ld.png

Bill Gates is the biggest single agricultural land owner in the US. Could he be manipulating the price for some cheap shares to pay for his divorce? B|

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Castlevania
17 minutes ago, nirvana said:

I did a search $IPI on twatter but this is the best I could come up with.....good fundies you say? I might buy some for the bounce :P

 

E0umQ85WQAMo9Ld.png

Good fundamentals? Nah, it’s an over leveraged piece of crap. But, that’s what you want if the underlying commodity they produce is about to enter a bull market.

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DurhamBorn
11 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

Thanks for that. I've just sent my mum the link with the form.

It looks like she's due about 10 years worth of back dated contributions!

 

You have to claim for the year before in October roughly,but yes its a great thing for people who retire early to build up their state pension,you get the credits attached to the family allowance,so it only works if the mother also earns over £6200 so she gets her year from her NI,im only 2 years short now,but il keep claiming the years in case they ever increase to 40 years or something,or allow early access with 40 years etc

Not much gets past this thread ;)

6 hours ago, King of Fools said:

Can you get JSA if you left your job voluntarily (which I thought you did)?

Yes,you tell them your contract ended,they never check and most jobs are contract now.

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DurhamBorn
9 hours ago, Viceroy said:

@DurhamBorn - what % of your portfolio do you allocate to tobacco?? thanks!

Its at 11%ish at the moment,It was 23%ish when i ditched them all in 2017.Il probably never sell them now,i just divert all divis into other investments or spending.

It really tore me when i sold them all in 2017,but my roadmap was screaming sell on them.I must admit im very happy to of got them all back now.BAT around £25.50 before divs and Imps £14.80 before divs.

They both do have some problems though.BAT has too much debt and needs to keep paying it down,but you worry once at 3x they might start share buy backs.Id prefer 2x given where rates might be later.They are a machine though and will get into lots of new areas.

Imps are doing crap in the new areas and dont have a enough emerging market exposure,but their debt is about 18 months away from being ok,and then they can buyback around 5% of stock a year if they want.Imps might also get taken out by BAT and Japan or even a Chinese company.Id rather they had stayed down longer though so they could start buybacks,more divis later then.

I must admit im a bit pissed with management at BP and Imps.They should of been buying back stock now heavily.Pay back debt later.BP seem to have a policy of buy back stock when we have high oil prices,they should be buying when they are on their arse.They should also keep their mouths shut and just do it instead of shouting about it.

 

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DurhamBorn
1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Good fundamentals? Nah, it’s an over leveraged piece of crap. But, that’s what you want if the underlying commodity they produce is about to enter a bull market.

Like Sibanye.Cracking managers who knew their market.They took on debt and bought up most of the industry during the bear market,everyone thought they were nuts buying failing assets.Then boom.Palladium rockets and they control the swing supply and print money.I want my arse kicking for selling most of them because i had too much in South Africa.I had 5 figures in them as well.Or as my dad says when he keeps mentioning how high they are now,"what did you sell em for dickhead" xD

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Sugarlips
12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

You could argue that Fiat is depreciating in your bank account against inflation and doesn’t grow.

But in regards to crypto there’s other options.

What about PAGT? Perth Mint crypto.

https://pmgt.io

Does this make it any different from an ETF?

Or PAXG?
https://www.paxos.com/paxgold/ 

I’d suggest reading @adamseconomics on Twitter regards Perth Mint.

i use their retail bullion counter but having followed John for a while now I know not to touch their synthetic or unallocated products with a barge pole.

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