Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

 T

7 minutes ago, planit said:

I was only joking, don't take it too personally. I will do a reply when I have time to think properly, I am meant to be revising as decided to qualify as an accountant for a laugh. After 13 exams plus other requirements in 15 months I have had enough so I spend all my time on here. 

I take what's in front of me so it was worse than personal.  After 13 of those exams I expect better:  RTFQ!    A similarly tart but sensible reply would have sufficed.  I had liked your post so took the time to engage but please, just forget it and be happy with a few disappointing lols.  I'm questioning this macro thread's future.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Who's buying the lows then

me and my mate are on the sniff.......

 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Don Coglione said:

I would be slightly less surprised if 90% of crypto holders (I am not calling them investors) were also invested in equities

you're failing to recognise the difference between 'the digital geniuses' who recognise crypto and digital currency as the future and 'shitcoin' investors...

99% of the best investors have some crypto exposure

99% of shitcoins 'players' have no equities*

*actually like all markets it's full of whales and sharks so actually it wouldn't surprise me if that's a lot lower, some of those sharks are quite clever 

[CVG]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Who's buying the lows then

Only after a BK. Most of the reduced prices today are higher than they were last week, so if I wasn't buying last week then ......

[goldbug9999]

40 minutes ago, nirvana said:

that's not right, the markets were going down and BTC joined in....I've been selling all week 

The BTC/crypto fall is down to Musk reversing his decision about tesla accepting bitcoin and spouting some bollocks about its energy use.

 

[leonardratso]

uncle dave said it was on last week, now saying its off, but still on. Diamond hands lads...

 

[Bobthebuilder]

35 minutes ago, Harley said:

 T

I take what's in front of me so it was worse than personal.  After 13 of those exams I expect better:  RTFQ!    A similarly tart but sensible reply would have sufficed.  I had liked your post so took the time to engage but please, just forget it and be happy with a few disappointing lols.  I'm questioning this macro thread's future.

I am doing nothing. A few companies I would like to top up but still big gains in those so will wait and see. I don't see any advantage in trading any holdings as I think I got in at a good level, happy to just leave it as it is.

Dry plasterboard and all that.

Small Hydrogen update. Baxi , Worcester are now running 100% Hydrogen boilers, fires and cookers in homes at Gateshead.

[nirvana]

16 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

Diamond hands lads...

hmmm, methinks you should practice the 'head shots' 

 

[nirvana]

17 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

100% Hydrogen boilers

so they have piped hydrogen to the houses? liquefied?

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, nirvana said:

so they have piped hydrogen to the houses? liquefied?

It is an estate of 650 homes on hydrogen trails in Gateshead, everything on site I presume. They have been running 80% gas to 20% Hydrogen mix for a while. They now have houses running on 100% Hydrogen using current infrastructure so, the same gas pipes, meters, regulators etc, new boilers though.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

all the MA lines all narrowed

that's got nowt to do with why Bitcoin dropped, it just shows it was range bound, MAs just show what has happened historically, they're a lot o shite, delete em please or else I'll get triggered again 

[nirvana]

 

[Bricormortis]

23 minutes ago, nirvana said:

so they have piped hydrogen to the houses? liquefied?

Well Boris is all for a boom in the North East.

[DurhamBorn]

Got some beautiful steak mince reduced in Sainsbury's yesterday,loads of it as well.Only a few in at 2pm,but they all walked past it,no doubt ashamed to be even close to a yellow sticker .Iv gone all upmarket,but its always a happy day when BAT sends me a big fat divi.

Telco results good today from BT and TEF,exactly what you would want at the turn to inflation.Debts should be down to a range where they can pay off 10% a year for TEF by mid year.They might launch share buy backs though instead as their debt profile looks ok over an average of 10 years and 2.98% average coupons.

BT producing around £1.3billion free cash after nearly £5 billion of infrastructure spending is a great place to be as inflation ramps.They should be able to self fund from here in,though they might sell a stake in Openreach at some point.

I think BT will be producing £3 to £3.5 billion free cash minimum by the end of the cycle and will be paying a 20p divi.

TEF was interesting as well on the bits about Brazil.It looks like Vivo has a growing digital payments system.VOD are the same in Africa and thats going under the radar.

Hopefully oil can shake down a bit more and keep weak hands out of the oilies,the longer they are down the better.It will mean much higher gains down the road,much higher.

 

 

[Sasquatch]

Drax working hard this morning.

[Ma2]

Sorry nothing to contribute macro-wise. Do need to get back to my SIPP and S&S ISA this week.

I suppose the only thing I could add is that I've been spending time on mortgages and have decided to go with Coventry.

1 hour call yesterday, got approved via credit and affordability check, can take 6-8 weeks. Seemed too easy, none of the usual need to see your bills, banks statements. Just the current mortage, any loans/credit cards, house insurance and need to see 1 payslip and P60 (or 3 payslips if no P60). Maybe that comes later but they said they were sending out the paperwork for signing.

Details -

• 10 year fixed at 2.29%

• 5.00% of the balance repaid until 30.06.23, then 3.00% until 30.06.26, then no early charges for the last 5 years
• You can repay up to 10% of the capital p.a. without an early repayment charge in the first 5 years.

Was just catching up on the thread and now wishing I'd borrowed an extra £10k and put it in silver Maybe not too late!

So anyway there are still some good deals out there if you are looking for a longer fix, but the lack of early repayment charges in last 5 years was the clincher for me. If things go the way we expect however I probably won't want to pay it off!

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Sorry nothing to contribute macro-wise. Do need to get back to my SIPP and S&S ISA this week.

I suppose the only thing I could add is that I've been spending time on mortgages and have decided to go with Coventry.

1 hour call yesterday, got approved via credit and affordability check, can take 6-8 weeks. Seemed too easy, none of the usual need to see your bills, banks statements. Just the current mortage, any loans/credit cards, house insurance and need to see 1 payslip and P60 (or 3 payslips if no P60). Maybe that comes later but they said they were sending out the paperwork for signing.

Details -

• 10 year fixed at 2.29%

• 5.00% of the balance repaid until 30.06.23, then 3.00% until 30.06.26, then no early charges for the last 5 years
• You can repay up to 10% of the capital p.a. without an early repayment charge in the first 5 years.

Was just catching up on the thread and now wishing I'd borrowed an extra £10k and put it in silver Maybe not too late!

So anyway there are still some good deals out there if you are looking for a longer fix, but the lack of early repayment charges in last 5 years was the clincher for me. If things go the way we expect however I probably won't want to pay it off!

Did you have to go through that bizarre "financial attitudes" interview with the underwriter?

Halfway through my interview for 10y fix last year and we'd established my savings were approx 2x the mortgage I wanted, so inevitably I was asked why on earth I wanted/needed a mortgage.

I was so tempted to go in with "Well there's this fella from the North East on this internet forum ...", but I settled with "inflation's coming and I don't want to be under-leveraged". Incredibly, they approved the mortgage the same week and I spunked a good chunk of it on a load of silver a few days later.

[Harley]

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Debts should be down to a range where they can pay off 10% a year for TEF by mid year.

?  I read that as: TEF debt is to go down to a level (presumably through paying some back out of cash flow) where the next payment reduces debt by 10%.  And the next payment after that is less so that that it still equates to 10% of the outstanding debt, and the next payment after that is even less to still equate to 10% of outstanding debt, etc, etc?    

 

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

The BTC/crypto fall is down to Musk reversing his decision about tesla accepting bitcoin and spouting some bollocks about its energy use.

 

That’s only an extra push. BTC was already falling before that tweet alongside the FAANGs (and it makes sense with the large scale investment funds/Tesla exposure). It would have also started to recover like with any bad news in crypto, it rebounds quickly. BTC isn’t moving as each bad day on the markets it’s waiting until 2:30pm until the US is open and will move accordingly from there.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, goldbug9999 said:

The BTC/crypto fall is down to Musk reversing his decision about tesla accepting bitcoin and spouting some bollocks about its energy use.

Did I hear they recently declared a profit on their BTC sales larger than that from their car sales?  Was that a complete sale or do they still hold a material amount of BTC?

 

[goldbug9999]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Did I hear they recently declared a profit on their BTC sales larger than that from their car sales?  Was that a complete sale or do they still hold a material amount of BTC?

 

They sold 10%, still hold over a $billion worth AFAIK

[Harley]

4 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

That’s only an extra push. BTC was already falling before that tweet alongside the FAANGs (and it makes sense with the large scale investment funds/Tesla exposure). It would have also started to recover like with any bad news in crypto, it rebounds quickly. BTC isn’t moving as each bad day on the markets it’s waiting until 2:30pm until the US is open and will move accordingly from there.

Agreed.  I've had BTC (in GBP) on a technical sell on the weeklies since 19 April 21 with the monthlies getting volatile in April and confirmed early this month.

[Craig]

2 hours ago, goldbug9999 said:

The BTC/crypto fall is down to Musk reversing his decision about tesla accepting bitcoin and spouting some bollocks about its energy use.

 

A couple of other things slipped under the radar yesterday which were potentially more significant. Elon's old mucker Peter Thiel is setting up a crypto exchange and JP Morgan were announcing institutional investment in BTC is down for last month.

Suspect they were both happy to scoop up lots of discount BTC yesterday!

[Boon]

God bless the plunge protection team... some volatility today.

[Harley]

That is a work of beauty:

And now for a bit of rough (note the drop in March 20 wrt a BK):

PS:  Similar in GBP, although it really shows the move in Cable.  Note, things are close to overbought in silver atm so either an intermediate pullback or break out a la 2010/11.  And gold may need to complete its current pullback into the oversold zone (but interestingly already there in GBP).  Now what does that tell you about the current macro.......?