Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

Top tip.  Get a 34"+ ultrawide monitor for this stuff, particularly one like LG with its multiple window management software.  All there and no multi-monitor edges in the way.  And a proper res, not your 1080!  Non curved fine for me at 34".  I just couldn't go back.  Added a tablet to run some apps which are better than the desktop offerings.  Only issue is having to share the office!   If anyone needs me to have a word with their partner, just let me know 'cause it's not a toy but a path to riches I say! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Oh dear.  I've just done some major housekeeping and spent a ton on HL forex fees!

I actually thought HL could be cheaper than II if the trade is back to GBP rather than hold in the currency.  HL charges max 1% whereas say II charges 1.5% so cheaper with HL on a there and back (which you have to do with HL) than II but 0.5% more expensive compared to II if you do a there but hold the currency on the back leg in II.  So depends on what the plan is.  My purchases are hopefully long term so ok with HL, although the div loss will hurt.  All academic in an ISA though as you can't hold forex so it has to be a there and back in them all.

The #1 hands down for me, if no ISA or SIPP is required, is IB.  They are brill in every way except their software.  But then their app is great, particularly on a tablet.

The FX fees are gut-wrenching. So much so that I mainly use funds now rather than individual stocks. I know that they'll incorporate the FX fees within their own costs but they'll be getting much better deals than us and probably transacting less than me!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Incredible isnt it that we saw all of this way back,even stating that it was the end of the cycle from Volcker.Of course one policy error now and the unwind would be epic.

 

This is Nordea's current thinking, Autumnal policy error on the cards...

20210610_135540.jpg.ea0843c982f5cf423a2a4161c2daad63.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

US markets going bonkers on the back of higher than expected CPI figures!

Druckenmiller saying 'there is no price discovery', yeah mate we already knew that! xD

And apparently Blackrock are buying loads of houses in the US at 20-50% above market value

source is zerohedge but don't let that put you off! :P

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/druck-slams-fed-manipulation-stocks-bond-yields-jump-after-cpi-soars

Markets have taken out the ALL TIME HIGHS in the S&P!!!

Interesting, some hedgies will be fancying some shorts up here :Jumping:

woo and look at that spike in the UST 10 year O.o

 

bfmEAE3.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, nirvana said:

US markets going bonkers on the back of higher than expected CPI figures!

Druckenmiller saying 'there is no price discovery', yeah mate we already knew that! xD

And apparently Blackrock are buying loads of houses in the US at 20-50% above market value

source is zerohedge but don't let that put you off! :P

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/druck-slams-fed-manipulation-stocks-bond-yields-jump-after-cpi-soars

Markets have taken out the ALL TIME HIGHS in the S&P!!!

Interesting, some hedgies will be fancying some shorts up here :Jumping:

woo and look at that spike in the UST 10 year O.o

 

bfmEAE3.jpg

I've been watching a potential bottoming on IBGL (GBP 20 yr UST) with for example a bullish reversing wedge on the monthly.  I have no idea how/why we get there but there's a potential contrarian case we do!  Maybe stuff around what DB mentioned on the yield curve?  Maybe just the forex as TLT has almost an opposite wedge but then is close to a break to the up.  Maybe a crash position.  The last bond auction was apparently well subscribed.  Based on those ZeroHedge comments if the sell is on, we should see money markets and the short bonds get the bid.  AMC et al is classic topping action.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Harley said:

I've been watching a potential bottoming on IBGL (GBP 20 yr UST) with for example a bullish reversing wedge on the monthly.  I have no idea how/why we get there but there's a potential contrarian case we do!  Maybe stuff around what DB mentioned on the yield curve?  Maybe just the forex as TLT has almost an opposite wedge but then is close to a break to the up.  Maybe a crash position.  The last bond auction was apparently well subscribed.  Based on those ZeroHedge comments if the sell is on, we should see money markets and the short bonds get the bid.  AMC et al is classic topping action.

I have some IBTL which has been bumping along the bottom and I'll be pleased if it decides to go up:D I seem to remember DH saying short end bonds would go up a bit and @DurhamBornsaying the FED would force the yield down a bit at the short end (by buying so pushing the price up) to force liquidity out into the economy.  Please correct me if this is wrong as I find anything to do with bonds quite confusing!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, janch said:

I have some IBTL which has been bumping along the bottom and I'll be pleased if it decides to go up:D I seem to remember DH saying short end bonds would go up a bit and @DurhamBornsaying the FED would force the yield down a bit at the short end (by buying so pushing the price up) to force liquidity out into the economy.  Please correct me if this is wrong as I find anything to do with bonds quite confusing!

Me too!  Presumably 20yr is the longer end but it's not the 30yr.  I hold and watch all ends for a sign of a potential BK.  Bonds may not have any future but they may serve one final purpose (to ride out a BK).

PS:  Love it when data <> talk but which way will this resolve, if it does?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Me too!  Presumably 20yr is the longer end but it's not the 30yr.  I hold and watch all ends for a sign of a potential BK.  Bonds may not have any future but they may serve one final purpose (to ride out a BK).

PS:  Love it when data <> talk but which way will this resolve, if it does?

20yr is usually 20yr+ i think so contains lots of the long end stuff.Fed will try to keep short end down  because they dont want everything parking there and sucking liquidity from the economy.They need the fiscal taps running,but they want the spending to enter entities to be invested into production or consumption.If there is a policy error its that they taper too much too early.Incredible amounts sat in bonds,where that goes over the cycle will be crucial.

Like you say though if they lose control,they might simply legislate instead.They already sold NMW workers BP at £2 a share so why not force them into green bonds etc like you say.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

reformed nice guy
4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like you say though if they lose control,they might simply legislate instead.They already sold NMW workers BP at £2 a share so why not force them into green bonds etc like you say.

This is why I am following the "have a little of everything" strategy. They can legislate some areas but they cant legislate everything.

The most valuable thing you can have is your wits and ability to think critically.

The other valuable things are your assets be they property, gold, shares, funds, bonds etc

But the thing in between those two (the self and the wealth) is your social network. Family, friends, community, fellow professionals, political contacts etc. It is easy to focus on wealth, and to a lesser extent self, but the rest may be very very important when times are bad. I am guilty of this myself since I am a disagreeable wanker, but I do try to help others when I can. Hopefully I will never need to depend on them but you never know

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Harley said:

Maybe a crash position

I know I change my POV like the weather lol but I've had a brief conversation with a pro yankee and he says Nasdaq has space to go to 15k.......S&P to 4400

i'm playing with IBs Trader Workstation (on linux), it's a bit intimidating but I need to suss out the futures market....

AND I just looked at cable and the spreads are 'tight as fook'! God bless America lol :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

AMC et al is classic topping action.

those meme stocks are on another planet! I wouldn't use em as a gauge for anything, they're like up 100% one day, down 50% the next

juicy mofos if u can catch a wave or two but be prepared for the dump, or else your surf trunks suddenly turn brown xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, nirvana said:

those meme stocks are on another planet! I wouldn't use em as a gauge for anything, they're like up 100% one day, down 50% the next

juicy mofos if u can catch a wave or two but be prepared for the dump, or else your surf trunks suddenly turn brown xD

Speculative froth (and some), a topping sign?  I also can see things running higher but now's the time to bag up all but the play money?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
3 hours ago, Harley said:

Oh dear.  I've just done some major housekeeping and spent a ton on HL forex fees!

I actually thought HL could be cheaper than II if the trade is back to GBP rather than hold in the currency.  HL charges max 1% whereas say II charges 1.5% so cheaper with HL on a there and back (which you have to do with HL) than II but 0.5% more expensive compared to II if you do a there but hold the currency on the back leg in II.  So depends on what the plan is.  My purchases are hopefully long term so ok with HL, although the div loss will hurt.  All academic in an ISA though as you can't hold forex so it has to be a there and back in them all.

The #1 hands down for me, if no ISA or SIPP is required, is IB.  They are brill in every way except their software.  But then their app is great, particularly on a tablet.

I'm going to give IB another go, man was that thing I downloaded on mi computer confusing. SIPP and ISA with HL, they're good. Makes sense about the fx thing Harley if holding long term

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'm going to give IB another go, man was that thing I downloaded on mi computer confusing. SIPP and ISA with HL, they're good. Makes sense about the fx thing Harley if holding long term

Try their android app?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, Harley said:

Speculative froth (and some), a topping sign?  I also can see things running higher but now's the time to bag up all but the play money?

 

8G2w.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ThoughtCriminal

The Sun aren't fucking about here. 

EVERYTHING 

SPIRALLING

OUT OF CONTROL

 

Might as well just say "we're all fucked". 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lightscribe
20 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The Sun aren't fucking about here. 

EVERYTHING 

SPIRALLING

OUT OF CONTROL

 

Might as well just say "we're all fucked". 

B628B9DA-B774-495B-B7CF-1CDE874D790F.gif.33d21a837056702a60430893deec8a43.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Noallegiance
23 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The Sun aren't fucking about here. 

EVERYTHING 

SPIRALLING

OUT OF CONTROL

 

Might as well just say "we're all fucked". 

Thereby adding to the problem as it makes people think "Fuck! Better buy XYZ now before it goes up too much".

And lo the money velocity spike begineth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don Coglione
5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

aye, his african 'friend' suggested it to him;

image.jpeg.40d557d6a3655eeb754ba0e482090f9b.jpeg

What is that massive hand, with painted nails, all about then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

I'm going to give IB another go, man was that thing I downloaded on mi computer confusing. SIPP and ISA with HL, they're good. Makes sense about the fx thing Harley if holding long term

What is the full name of IB, looking to set up an account to buy overseas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
35 minutes ago, Hancock said:

What is the full name of IB, looking to set up an account to buy overseas.

Interactive Brokers

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...