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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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23 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

The biggest disadvantage of IB is your inability to trade US etfs. 

True, but not an IB issue.  Yes, about options and taking delivery, although I'd just trade them through options anyway so no need to hold.

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26 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Apart from that theyre desktop app is great

TWS?  Wow, respect!  Although I'm being a bit vain here as TBH the worst part is the GUI.  Better resolution, etc and I'll feel better.  But then it's role is as a robust workhorse.

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Animal Spirits

America’s Energy Gift to Dictators

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-energy-gift-to-dictators-11623279139?reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

"The U.S. is barreling toward one of the greatest self-inflicted wounds in its history. This came into sharper focus last week when President Biden suspended oil leases in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), even as Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced production increases".

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Green Devil
16 minutes ago, Harley said:

TWS?  Wow, respect!  Although I'm being a bit vain here as TBH the worst part is the GUI.  Better resolution, etc and I'll feel better.  But then it's role is as a robust workhorse.

I dont use their charts but everything else is good. I like the way you can sort tabs by dividend yield dividend date and any other column. Option trader is good. 

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17 hours ago, CVG said:

The FX fees are gut-wrenching. So much so that I mainly use funds now rather than individual stocks. I know that they'll incorporate the FX fees within their own costs but they'll be getting much better deals than us and probably transacting less than me!

Tieing this to IB, using IB versus any of the others (only to get the SIPP or ISA) shows the huge gulf between the two, fees and international market access wise.  IMO, if I had to, Interactive Investor is looking the best.  You pay a crazy 1.5% Forex but at least you can hold in that currency, apart from an ISA.  And it looks like you get decent market access, for a stiff price.  Saxo cheaper (forex and fees) but seems to have only the major stocks.  As @sancho panza asked, anything else out there?  Anyone tried setting up a SIPP in IB?

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21 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

I dont use their charts but everything else is good. I like the way you can sort tabs by dividend yield dividend date and any other column. Option trader is good. 

Yep, most use TradingView, including IB!  I had been meaning to use IB for years but thought it was above my pay grade.  Maybe was but not now - mostly breezed their tests, only getting confused on the wording of some questions!  Love it. 

I mainly use the app so I can place my AsiaPac deals from the comfort of my bed!  However, with my improved sleeping, I may need to use the extensive conditional order functionality more often. 

I'm debating which options broker to use as option chains look messy at the best of times.  I'll have another look.  I tried the two week free Big Picture Trading deal and they were using IB which was nice info.

An RIP for E*Trade UK which was brill back in the day.  Did all my warrant trades with them.

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Lightscribe
44 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Did supply increase with lumber, or did demand go down as the price was getting too expensive to afford?  The key takeaway IMO is that the "Just in time" economy is getting walloped, it just cant cope with supply/demand peaks and troughs from lockdowns and stimmy checks.

Just noticed this from another forum, potential for some empty shelves again in next few months.

 

Interesting quote there MP, follows on from what I said earlier. Brexit will be the focus.

You little englander Brexit bastards! See what you did? I couldn’t get any Kale this week for my morning smoothies in Waitrose because we no longer have any cheap EU labour to pick and transport it for us! Referendum now!!!

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13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Interesting quote there MP, follows on from what I said earlier. Brexit will be the focus.

You little englander Brexit bastards! See what you did? I couldn’t get any Kale this week for my morning smoothies in Waitrose because we no longer have any cheap EU labour to pick and transport it for us! Referendum now!!!

I thought they were all staying at home growing their own!  I guess they'll be back when the novelty wears off.  But saw a remote one bed gaff for sale this week with a bit of rough pasture but no utilities......£300k!  Someone will buy it though.  They always do.  Then dream turns to heartbreak and they head home.  They always do!

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Green Devil
31 minutes ago, Harley said:

Tieing this to IB, using IB versus any of the others (only to get the SIPP or ISA) shows the huge gulf between the two, fees and international market access wise.  IMO, if I had to, Interactive Investor is looking the best.  You pay a crazy 1.5% Forex but at least you can hold in that currency, apart from an ISA.  And it looks like you get decent market access, for a stiff price.  Saxo cheaper (forex and fees) but seems to have only the major stocks.  As @sancho panza asked, anything else out there?  Anyone tried setting up a SIPP in IB?

I have quite a few large positions in stocks denominated in other currencies. IB borrow the currency and charge you for the privilege. Ive not noticed it to be particularly large, my biggest expense is the multitude of price fees for various markets. You actually end up being long dollar/euro etc, but you can hedge it using there FX trader, they charge a couple of quid for unlimited FX trades size.

One thing they could improve is channelling dividend income separately, at the moment it seems to get lost in the standard acct somewhere, be nice if it was clearer.

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10 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

From an energy industry insider. 

 

He's calling it for 23/24

 

What say you CP?? 

It is what my expectations are.

The important thing is when this becomes visible in the markets. It could be 12-18 months before.

 

It depends on whether countries are capable of producing as much oil as they say. By the end of the year it should be obvious where US is going with production and it will also be obvious that all the West is trying to shut down oil.

This increases scrutiny of whats left.

 

12 months before Jan 2023 is this December!

 

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12 minutes ago, planit said:

It is what my expectations are.

The important thing is when this becomes visible in the markets. It could be 12-18 months before.

 

It depends on whether countries are capable of producing as much oil as they say. By the end of the year it should be obvious where US is going with production and it will also be obvious that all the West is trying to shut down oil.

This increases scrutiny of whats left.

 

12 months before Jan 2023 is this December!

 

some daft bint on sky radio news this morning saying nylon has to go because buying it supports the petrochem co.s

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23 minutes ago, BWW said:

some daft bint on sky radio news this morning saying nylon has to go because buying it supports the petrochem co.s

Or does nylon not happen to suit her body shape?

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1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

I have quite a few large positions in stocks denominated in other currencies. IB borrow the currency and charge you for the privilege. Ive not noticed it to be particularly large, my biggest expense is the multitude of price fees for various markets. You actually end up being long dollar/euro etc, but you can hedge it using there FX trader, they charge a couple of quid for unlimited FX trades size.

One thing they could improve is channelling dividend income separately, at the moment it seems to get lost in the standard acct somewhere, be nice if it was clearer.

The don't charge me that do they?  I make the FX deal and let it settle (depends on the pair) before trading.

Yep, I went through all the exchange fees when comparing brokers, yawn!  Turned on tiered pricing for cheaper rates but not all markets supported (most though).

Not many div's ATM and the reporting to trace and generally check things is a bit clunky but great for the back office! 

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1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Interesting quote there MP, follows on from what I said earlier. Brexit will be the focus.

You little englander Brexit bastards! See what you did? I couldn’t get any Kale this week for my morning smoothies in Waitrose because we no longer have any cheap EU labour to pick and transport it for us! Referendum now!!!

It has to have the star spangled sphincter on it though, FBPE types can't be seen supporting UK farmers can they?  South east England supermarket aisles be like:

Top 30 Trump Woman Scream GIFs | Find the best GIF on Gfycat

 

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50 minutes ago, BWW said:

some daft bint on sky radio news this morning saying nylon has to go because buying it supports the petrochem co.s

The world has gone mad and I think my radio now belongs in the chambre d'toilette!

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39 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Or does nylon not happen to suit her body shape?

Exactly,i was out and about yesterday down town and it was wall to wall in rather nice younger women,shopping,sunbeds,driving around in their cars,didnt get the feeling any of them gave a toss about this woke stuff,mostly they looked like they always have,enjoying being young,outdoing their friends and getting nailed.

 

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21 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

I take care of my dad's money. He's just had some fixed rate savings bonds complete and has a good bit in premium bonds (£25 in 12 months!!). I too have recently been wondering about sticking that into property just for some yield and as a hard asset - I even looked on Rightmove at houses in @DurhamBorn's Redcar suggestion! It pains me to think doing about BTL (especially at a distance but it needs to be a cash buy so comparateively low prices at less than 6 figures), but it's hard to find anywhere else for it that gives any yield at all (he won't do shares) and, as you say, property is unlikely to be confiscated. 

I occasionly ask on here about property, its potential etc. I am mostly into equities but i keep sniffing round property!! Recently i saw a P2P, Assetz Exchange, was specialising in offering charity social care/long lease properties to investors. From memory it was generating a 7% return, plus capital appreciation profit (if any) when investor sells their loan portion. Not advise of course and i don't think i would use that vehicle myself (i have previously used p2p, but now mainly divested, apart from Unbolted which is a gold/jewellery pawnbroker p2p), though do admit the risk/hassle element of the Assetz Exchange p2p does look attractive.

But i agree with you. My take is that 'specialist property' investing/renting, in the right parts of the country, could generate a 15% return (a high hurdle perhaps, but attainable if strike right deal, using 'sensible leverage'), plus potential of capitol appreciation (inflation+)... personally that would be my ballpark return before looking seriously into property investment. There is the hassle element of course, but as i previously posted, i think property should not be totally ignored as a hard asset.

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11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think we get inflation until back end of this year ,early next,then maybe a downward move,maybe even deflation for a short period to fake out everyone.I think they are trying to lift liquidity by 30% so that governments tax take increases quicker than spending.I have around 61% increase in prices for the cycle, but that depends on a lot more printing yet.With printing now we should get around 43% inflation over the cycle.

I think a lull is very likely and that might be where we see balance sheet events,a clean out,then inflation running up again.I dont tend to do much work on short term calls though as im not a trader and try to price out to 5 to 8 years.

 

Ta.  So c.43% v c.61% (two thirds) done, subject to not jumping off an MMT deep end.  The cycle being to 2030?

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21 hours ago, Harley said:

I meant IMO that the number is too aggreated, as is EPS.  There are indeed ways to massage such numbers but also it does not give enough data for me.  IMO the best it to look at the detail.  It doesn't take me that much extra time.  But then I focus more on the cash flow than the P&L.  I like to see the history and components of changes in operations, working capital, financing, dividends, and capex.  Follow the money!

Regarding OCF, my comment about looking deeper than the figure net of changes in working capital is I have possible experience of companies screwing down on say accounts receivable to smooth any falls in funds from operations.  Or maybe doing clever intercompany, group, associate type stuff.  I invest internationally so need to be careful!

Thanks Harley, I agree the detailed financial data is best to drill down into. But unfortunately I find i am not capable of doing that - i wish i were, but think my 'investor personality' is not that way inclined (important to admit weaknesses, my wealth is at stake after all!!). Instead i am trying to develop/settle on a few crucial ratios. You mentioned Simply Wall Street recently and i also use them because they present the data in graph form, which lends itself to my macro/ratio style of appraisal/decision making. 

I am not a trader, and am only looking for a personal 'BK wish list', which i would look to buy if/after prices fell. I mention this because the value proposition of a stock is not currently important to me (i.e. i am hoping/planning to buy after 80%? fall, as per DaveHunter), and so more interested in the reflation-cycle fundamentals of the stock as discussed on this thread. 

Though really wish there was a proxy/ratio to help in approximating a company's debt-profile - but asking for too much here i guess? Would like to find a simple way of discovering what proportion of company debt is actually long-term debt at hopefully low interest rate. This would really help me to derisk my stock selections.    

  

 

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4 hours ago, Harley said:

True, but not an IB issue.  Yes, about options and taking delivery, although I'd just trade them through options anyway so no need to hold.

indeed.  I use IB here in Oz and can buy US ETFs no worries.

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16 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

What is that massive hand, with painted nails, all about then?

If you have to ask, then i'd venture you don't really want to know the answer!!

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VeryMeanReversion
On 09/06/2021 at 17:22, Harley said:

One of those podcasts/videos (both available) you decide to listen to twice.  Some interesting perspectives from a long time metals guy Simon Hunt.  I've thought the behavior of the central banks (printing, etc) signals they know this is the end game of the current regime and are making the best out of it while they can so nice to hear someone else say it.  I'm already preparing as he (generally) recommends!  I just hope there is a USD bounce so I can load up on commodities.

A summary of the interview here:  https://palisadesradio.ca/simon-hunt-chinas-gold-and-digital-currency-reset/

 

I was listening to this last night, back-to-back 3 times.  Never done that for a podcast before.

The palisades shows usually are "blah, something interesting, blah, buy gold" but this was better.

Summary :

     - Raw material inflation 41% last year in China

     - China/Russia already preparing for the crash and will pick up assets it wants then. Reducing debt and dependency on the dollar. Getting digital currency ready. Large gold stocks.

     - Inflation will offset the western attempts at monetary and fiscal stimulus

     - Expect America to play dirty to try keep its hegonomic status, try limit/control China. 

     - Imminent melt-up then sharp correction is weeks away. Bottom Q4 2020 then expect more stimulus.

     - Dollar index initial bounce up but drop 50% by mid 2020's.

     - Big global crash in 2023.  Two years to prepare yourselves.  Simply too much debt. Central banks will need to restructure. (= default)

     - Copper price is now so high that aluminium and graphene becoming viable for bulk wiring applications (EVs and power distribution)

    - Wouldn't comment on bitcoin (which means he thinks its useless but doesn't want to piss anyone off saying it - I've seen other guests use this approach).

 

 

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4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Interesting quote there MP, follows on from what I said earlier. Brexit will be the focus.

You little englander Brexit bastards! See what you did? I couldn’t get any Kale this week for my morning smoothies in Waitrose because we no longer have any cheap EU labour to pick and transport it for us! Referendum now!!!

I notice that Gordon Brown has ventured out - he's getting vocal on wanting the UK to rejoin the EU. Nuff said... But must admit all this never-ending social/political division is getting to me big time.

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sancho panza

Just a thanks to everyone who contributed for the heads up on brazil telecoms.-I think it was @DurhamBorn  but anyone else too,I know there's been some chat.

I've had my head up my backside and haven't updated the coma scores for telecoms since mid march when quite a few still hadn't psoted full years.

You'll never guess what's top scoring this year after BT the last.

As ever,I use it with spray n pray.But this is my take on the sector and then adjust a little if the price has moved some.A score of 17 or over gets my interest,but a balance sheet score of 1 is a non non,as well,red balance sheet figure indicates goodwill over 75% equity,green over 50%.an attmept to avoid a repeat of teh scottish play.,dyodd.

On the back os this,I picked up some TIM SA,Telefonica brazil and will be doing Telefonica deutsche today

Company Share price       Date           Chart               Inc            BS              CF         Sector             SCS
Airtel Africa GBP 0.7785 10/06/21 3 4 1 5 4 17
Americ Movil MXN 15.78 10/06/21 1 3 1 5 4 14
AT&T USD 30.04 17/03/21 3 1 2 5 4 15
BT GBP 1.75 01/06/21 4 4 2 3 4 17
Deutsche tel E 16.655 17/03/21 1 3 1 3 4 12
Drillisch E26.36 10/06/21 3 3 5 3 4 18
KDDI Y 3632 10/06/21 1 3 3 5 4 16
Koninklijke E 2.923 17/03/21 4 3 2 5 4 18
KT Korea 26900 17/03/21 3 4 3 5 4 19
LM Ericsson B Skr 115.80 18/03/21 2 3 2 3 4 14
MTN ZAR 8809 18/03/21 3 4 2 5 4 18
Nippon Telegraph Y2874 10/06/21 4 4 3 4 4 19
Nokia E 3.505 18/03/21 4 1 3 3 4 15
Orange E 10.51 18/03/21 4 5 1 5 4 19
Proximus E 18.29 18/03/21 4 4 2 3 4 17
Singtel S$ 2.43 01/06/21 4 2 4 4 4 18
SK Telecom KRW 334000 11/06/21 1 4 3 4 4 16
Swisscom CHF 489.1 18/03/21 2 3 3 3 4 15
Telecom Italia E 0.4646 18/03/21 4 5 2 5 4 20
Telefonica E 4.077 18/03/21 5 3 2 5 4 19
Telefonica Brazil BRL 47.45 10/06/21 5 3 4 5 4 21
Telefonica Deutsch E2.264 10/06/21 5 3 4 5 4 21
Telenor Nkr 151.05 18/03/21 2 4 1 2 4 13
Telia Skr 37.06 18/03/21 3 1 2 4 4 14
Telkom Indonesia IDR 3480 10/06/21 1 3 3      
Telstra AUD 3.19 18/03/21 4 3 2 4 4 17
TIM SA YSD 12.83 10/06/21 4 3 4 5 4 20
Telus                
T-Mobile USD 146.89 10/06/21 1 2 2 1 4 10
Turkcell USD 5.55 18/03/21 5 5 2 5 4 21
United Internet             4 4
Veon                
Verizon USD 55.83 18/03/21 1 3 2 3 4 13
Vodafone GBP 1.28 01/06/21 5 2 3 5 4 19
                 
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