Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I'd be interested to hear how you coped with the infection and how it affected you. There are covid related threads that would benefit from a first hand account of your experiences. 

Leveraged BTL is the issue, isn't it?

DB would toss a few silver ingots the seller's way, I'd wager!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
ThoughtCriminal

Now i dont want to cause panic but when this guy is calling impending Armageddon......... 

 

If the rumour mill is to be believed, he's short everything . 

Screenshot_20210624_103822_com.twitter.android.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick update on the Covid situation.

I am not suggesting this is a real problem and we are all about to die and I am driven by common sense BUT the markets are not driven by common sense so use this to be aware and DYO[accurate]R.

 

Delta driven cases in the UK continue to rise exponentially and we are well over the case load of all the amber countries* that we are not allowed to travel to as they are 'dangerous'. I would expect this to roll over within 3-4 weeks when the kids break up from school and will provide a fire-break.

image.thumb.png.c7841447f003bf2f73f189181ac0c26e.png

 

Projecting the Delta variant increase in the US forwards, their cases will be rising in 2-3 weeks from now. This shouldn't affect deaths too much but vaccine take-up in the US is much more patchy than here (so they will probably be affected a bit more).

 

There is also now a Delta+ variant (already in UK) which I think is made up of the Delta variant with the South African mutation that could make vaccines less effective (if it made much difference it would have been obvious by now).

 

Markets in the UK have taken all this in their stride so far and it will probably be the same in the US unless global case numbers turn upwards again.

 

* If extra countries are added onto the green list this week, it could result in a reaction where these countries announce bans or quarantines on us like Italy already has.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Mapper said:

Leveraged BTL is the issue, isn't it?

DB would toss a few silver ingots the seller's way, I'd wager!

Yes.

IO BTL is non amortising debt, held by cretins.

Youve let idiots out borrow OO, who are much lower risk.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Interesting that you dislike BTL but have mooted the idea of buying a couple of houses to rent. 

Pragmatism?

Grandchildren and the fact i think north east house prices in many areas will outperform by a lot,they are already selling really quickly and moving higher.Id probably do 40% LTV and get two if i was going to do it,but whats putting me off is id get the work fixing etc and cant be bothered with it.Id buy in my home town and Redcar probably if i did.

Southern prices will likely be topping out by early winter and then a long decline against inflation and nominal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Take your point about markets not being driven by common sense. But my read would be:

- Cases are not infections, and the UK is still testing way too many perfectly healthy people. I had a total of 5 tests over a recent trip to Malta (where there is no covid). They really wanted to find something!

- Cases are in young people who won't end up in hospital, so no problem

- An uptick in cases was to be expected as the 'rules' were relaxed. Many people are ignoring all the rules now.

"- Cases are not infections"

I agree with that, I was not trying to give an opinion of whether the data is accurate or not as this is inconsequential

 

"- Cases are in young people who won't end up in hospital, so no problem"

Again, I agree with that but the government doesn't and they dictate policy and the press.

 

"- An uptick in cases was to be expected as the 'rules' were relaxed."

This is not quite right, the previous strains did act as [or better than] expected and have continued to drop, the new strain is acting differently.

 

Again, I am not saying we are going back into lockdown but ignoring data that governments rely on and markets interpret is exactly what we accuse the other side of doing. Italy have already acted on this data. The chances of it affecting markets might be close to zero but it is not zero.

We can't make good investment decisions unless we are taking account of information before the crowds.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, planit said:

We can't make good investment decisions unless we are taking account of information before the crowds.

 

True but anyone who sold or didn't buy when it was the end of the world in 2020 and everyth shit the bed has lost out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

True but anyone who sold or didn't buy when it was the end of the world in 2020 and everyth shit the bed has lost out

Not sure what you mean, there was about 2 months warning that there was a pandemic coming before stock markets got trashed. My whole point is being before the market.

See the risk before the market - position for the risk

Market moves in reaction to events or it's own perception to the risk - make new decision on current risks and market position.

 

We see this here all the time, there are two mentions at the moment where DOSBODS was ahead of the curve

1) oil prices up hugely, now the press is reporting oil might go to $100 but comments on here are talking about a correction.

2) inflation move April-June was seen on here before hand but now everyone is calling inflation to the moon 

 

It is impossible to get this right all the time (perhaps even less than 50%) but a profit is not likely if you position for inflation when the MSM is shouting we have a serious inflation problem.

Covid has driven the markets the last 15 months and it still has the potential to affect them.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, planit said:

Not sure what you mean, there was about 2 months warning that there was a pandemic coming before stock markets got trashed. My whole point is being before the market.

See the risk before the market - position for the risk

Market moves in reaction to events or it's own perception to the risk - make new decision on current risks and market position.

 

We see this here all the time, there are two mentions at the moment where DOSBODS was ahead of the curve

1) oil prices up hugely, now the press is reporting oil might go to $100 but comments on here are talking about a correction.

2) inflation move April-June was seen on here before hand but now everyone is calling inflation to the moon 

 

It is impossible to get this right all the time (perhaps even less than 50%) but a profit is not likely if you position for inflation when the MSM is shouting we have a serious inflation problem.

Covid has driven the markets the last 15 months and it still has the potential to affect them.

 

I think whats interesting is the way the MSM or indeed almost everyone has little understanding of inflation and how it works.They simply see a headline figure,5% inflation etc then they say the average family will be worse off by £700.Of course even that is way wrong.It doesnt take in wage increases,what they own/dont own etc.

Liquidity is leveraged both ways,dis-inflation pushes down hard on some sectors,rewards others.I remember saying during the crash that Royal Mail would outperform Amazon,and most would see that as sending in the white coats to take me away,but thats a very simple macro position.Amazon is a classic example of a company that leveraged dis-inflation,but will find it difficult to leverage inflation because input costs are huge for them.

This thread developed the theme as well to see the areas that could leverage as de-complex areas.I think that really helped us focus around the situation.Some more complex areas can still be de-complex if they have already invested in their assets and everyone needs to use them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

HSBC downgrade BP and i love this sort of thing.Its infant school stuff.The market worries about where cash flow will come from if they cut production by 40%.Well firstly its 40% not counting Rosneft,BP keep that bit quiet.Then there is the fact if something trebles and quadruples you make a lot more even with 25% less.

So HSBC are saying that a company that is likely going to be on  cash flow yield of 3,maybe even 2 late cycle will struggle to go green :Jumping:while the green companies will be on small or negative cash flow when rates increase.Maybe BP and other big oilies will just buy them all up?.

Of course you can argue if the strategy to slowly cull your oil production is the right one or not,but this seems to me a classic case of the market being fixed on the narrative and not seeing the macro.Their target price is £3.60,i think BP will get to £9 if you include all divis they pay by cycle end.

This market thinking is hugely bullish longer term and is another signal this undervaluation is structural.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-downgraded-by-hsbc-as-investors-have-yet-to-embrace-climate-shift-2021-06-24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

HSBC downgrade BP and i love this sort of thing.Its infant school stuff.The market worries about where cash flow will come from if they cut production by 40%.Well firstly its 40% not counting Rosneft,BP keep that bit quiet.Then there is the fact if something trebles and quadruples you make a lot more even with 25% less.

So HSBC are saying that a company that is likely going to be on  cash flow yield of 3,maybe even 2 late cycle will struggle to go green :Jumping:while the green companies will be on small or negative cash flow when rates increase.Maybe BP and other big oilies will just buy them all up?.

Of course you can argue if the strategy to slowly cull your oil production is the right one or not,but this seems to me a classic case of the market being fixed on the narrative and not seeing the macro.Their target price is £3.60,i think BP will get to £9 if you include all divis they pay by cycle end.

This market thinking is hugely bullish longer term and is another signal this undervaluation is structural.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bp-downgraded-by-hsbc-as-investors-have-yet-to-embrace-climate-shift-2021-06-24

Like the comments, James Doyle, is too much of a Dosbodder to be on Dosbods.

If he put in minorities and women, he's close to the mark!

image.png.838ca7a90eeb11b296cf316a8ec209ec.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, macca said:

What's happening to VODafone? 

Share price continues to tumble?

Good buy? or run and scream? 

VOD is creeping higher,today was ex divi day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, TheNickos said:

Just picked up some FRES and IMB. Fancied some silver/miners and tobacco is generally a winner dividend wise. 

Just bought a bit more POLY and VIV for the first time. Will get some more FRES with my July trading credit I think.

Still can't quite bring myself to invest/encourage the cancer stocks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Saddle up Boys, we're ready for the home straight. 

80% down after this melt up he's saying. 

I just want PMs to run!

Actually been selling out / taking profits from quite a few positions (anything over 100% up) lately to de-risk myself a bit.

Anecdotally though work (construction) is going mad at the moment. Everyone sorting out their premises anticipating return to work in offices.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

2 child benefit cap.

I was trying to find a shorter time period chart. Failed.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/vitalstatisticspopulationandhealthreferencetables

  • In 2019, there were 712,680 live births in the UK, a decrease of 2.5% from 731,213 in 2018 and the lowest number of live births since 2004.

2 child limit started in Apr 2017.

Ive done a post on the affect to Mrs Spy school (2021 - 2017 = 4 = age kids start reception).

Classes have dropped from ~30 -> ~25.

TCv1 came in 2003.

TCv2 the lucrative ones started in ~2007, after the news was filled up with single mums owing ~10k to HMRC.

 

Youve also go to allow a a lot of EUers fucking off home wit he furlough money and bennies.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Saddle up Boys, we're ready for the home straight. 

80% down after this melt up he's saying. 

Mmm, but when to cash out eh?...I have a workplace pension currently invested in stocks/bonds but have the option to move within the provider to cash type investments, but at the moment the return is pitiful....but safe in a BK.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What i would say with David is that he is looking at the US mostly and the bubbles there.He has zero interest or work on the UK.He would say rightly everything will be pulled down,but the scale is very much in question.Most relies on the debt markets and the derivative side and if there is systemic risk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
On 24/06/2021 at 14:39, planit said:

Not sure what you mean, there was about 2 months warning that there was a pandemic coming before stock markets got trashed. My whole point is being before the market.

See the risk before the market - position for the risk

Market moves in reaction to events or it's own perception to the risk - make new decision on current risks and market position.

 

We see this here all the time, there are two mentions at the moment where DOSBODS was ahead of the curve

1) oil prices up hugely, now the press is reporting oil might go to $100 but comments on here are talking about a correction.

2) inflation move April-June was seen on here before hand but now everyone is calling inflation to the moon 

 

It is impossible to get this right all the time (perhaps even less than 50%) but a profit is not likely if you position for inflation when the MSM is shouting we have a serious inflation problem.

Covid has driven the markets the last 15 months and it still has the potential to affect them.

 

Not to be underestimated re covid whether you think the thing is real or not. The faces who pull the strings of the puppets are doing very well out of it.

Billionaires see fortunes rise by 27% during the pandemic

'Wealth increase of 10 men during pandemic could buy vaccines for all'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...