Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

I've got a little bit of IBTL, but have to admit I have completely forgotten how we are playing this. 

Assuming David Hunter's forecast comes true, would you sell at TLT ~$150 or keep holding?

I know less about bonds than I do about stocks. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Talking Monkey]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

I've got a little bit of IBTL, but have to admit I have completely forgotten how we are playing this. 

Assuming David Hunter's forecast comes true, would you sell at TLT ~$150 or keep holding?

I know less about bonds than I do about stocks. 

I have some ibtl, I sold a quarter of it yesterday  holding the rest as a hedge in case of BK. I'm going to add more if it drops back to close to 130.

I have almost no idea what I'm doing with these Bond things, though I must say it's all very exciting.

Edit I'm taking my buy sell levels off of tlt although I hold ibtl

[ThoughtCriminal]

 

[Transistor Man]

38 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Tech/ Semiconductors - on this, Mr Hunter has been bang-on for the past 15 months. I can’t believe the parabolic ramp of, Nvidia.

[arrow]

15 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Yes, sort of. Shell is selling its share of the refinery to Liwathon which was (is?) owned by Barclay Rowland (private equity snapping up bargains again?). The other shares are owned by Eni and Rosneft (Gazprom indirectly) which have both been mentioned before on this thread. Eni and Rosneft/gazprom are not selling their shares. Perhaps not as much green pressure?

[arrow]

17 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

 

 

Edit: BASF owns 67% of WintershallDEA, the biggest independent oil producer in Europe, and with some very nice Russian gas fields too. I recommended it here way back when, I hope some of you like this news.

I think as part of the former US sanctions on Nordstream 2, Basf had to give up a financial interest in Nordstream 2. It gave it up to Gazprom in exchange for Gazprom oil fields.

[DurhamBorn]

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/07/09/container-freight-rates-hit-new-extremes-up-6x-asia-to-us-europe-peak-shipping-season-still-ahead/

I sometimes forget,but i had a very successful one man band import business that i ran down and closed to get all the capital out because my roadmap showed that model was about to be destroyed.Most of the capital from that ended up in the goldies and silvers etc.

I was paying around £2000 for a 40 foot high cube container to ship,sometimes a little more.There is also VAT on the cost,so any increase in the cost sees an even bigger increase from extra tax.Thats before shipping from the port of course,you have trunking costs on top.

I used to get 550 firepits on a container so the port to port cost was about £4 a unit.Today it would be £24 a unit.

I used to land each unit and onto a pallet for an all in cost of between £35 to £38 and sell for £79

Here is one i used to sell now

https://www.amazon.co.uk/INMOZATA-Garden-Outdoor-Brazier-Firepit/dp/B07MP399R9/ref=sr_1_62?dchild=1&keywords=firepit&qid=1625908493&sr=8-62

£130

I can tell you that you can now manufacture almost all goods that are that size and over in the UK for cheaper than shipping from China.In some cases a lot cheaper,for insance shipping a washing machine will now be around £80 a unit,just the port to port.

Supply chains built on destroying ordinary peoples jobs have just walked direct into a reflation cycle wall.They are fucked.

The survivors need to pull back production quickly in bulky items and out survive their competitors and they need workers,but workers arent interested,

Thats why my phone rings every day offering job after job after job,and these are massive blue chip companies.Lower down the pecking orders the job sites are rammed with production operator jobs that they cant fill.The wages arent enough compared to retiring or welfare.

As i turn every job down i tell them the wages are far too low given the inflation in the economy (even the ones that would be considered very high wages for the NE) and i think to myself maybe you should of come to this thread in 16 and offered us 10x those wages,but not for engineering,for macro strategy.

I should add,the reason we are in the sectors we are is because they arent affected much by the above in a negative way,but they can bump up the prices with the inflation.BAT for instance gets millions of fags on a container and the shipping unit cost is tiny.

 

[JMD]

19 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Nothing wrong with cash, and you might be right about markets, seems like no one does the slightest due dilligence anymore. Here is the delta variant from its country of origin, it was once known as the Indian variant, remember that?! it topped out and died back in a country with no vaccination with deaths and hospitalisations one tenth of the the US or the UK. But delta variant bad!!

I agree. Plus India (or 'project delta'?!) didn't have a lockdown. And yet, like a modern fairy tale, the virus withered away. I know that people died and their tragic stories were important to see... But the rampant propaganda coverage the so called BBC put out daily about India during May still makes my blood boil. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I agree. Plus India (or 'project delta'?!) didn't have a lockdown. And yet, like a modern fairy tale, the virus withered away. I know that people died and their tragic stories were important to see... But the rampant propaganda coverage the so called BBC put out daily about India during May still makes my blood boil. 

Well said @Cattle Prod and @JMD.  So relevant to this thread too as getting into this finance stuff requires a degree of independence, data drive, etc.  Like they are only telling us now, and only because it suits them, that the track and trace pings were only advisory when most of the capable here would already have sussed that out.  It's exactly the same in finance.  You gotta enquire and think for yourself.  Emotions, media, etc noise, and herd mentality will, at least relatively, ruin most.

PS:  It's fascinating listening to the key finance guys use their well honed data skills to analyse this plandemic.  As usual, a million miles from the msm, etc.

[Heart's Ease]

 

 

We will continue to offer one of the most appealing shareholder remunerations among Ibex-listed companies. In 2021, the dividend will be around €0.60/share (cash dividend in July after the scrip dividend paid out in January. This amount will increase gradually over the course of the Strategic Plan until it reaches €0.75/share. In 2025, shareholder remuneration will be at least €1/share, including cash payment and share buybacks to be made from 2022 onwards.

Just a snippet from the Repsol website (had a nice dividend on Friday that I wasn't expecting!).

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

BAT for instance gets millions of fags on a container and the shipping unit cost is tiny.

This is something i think about alot since you mentioned similar a while back even though it should have been so obvious and with the pandemic, watching companies have shortages especially car companies with all the parts they require

Also talking about Tobacco companies

One of the world’s biggest cigarette makers faces a backlash after striking a £927 million deal to buy a British respiratory drug company that works on treatments for smoking-related diseases.

Philip Morris International, the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, surprised the City yesterday by revealing that it had agreed to acquire Vectura, the FTSE 250-listed business, in the biggest move by a tobacco company into the healthcare industry.

[Harley]

14 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

 

Maybe but it's gonna take some hefty price increases to change the negative intermediate technicals I generally see for my value stocks so maybe not them.  My weekend review should be interesting given this week's yo-yoing.  But there's much other work to do - it does seem that I usually should be paying attention at those very times I'm too busy!

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I used to get 550 firepits on a container so the port to port cost was about £4 a unit.Today it would be £24 a unit.

What are the main factors behind that 6x hike?

[Bobthebuilder]

23 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

We will continue to offer one of the most appealing shareholder remunerations among Ibex-listed companies. In 2021, the dividend will be around €0.60/share (cash dividend in July after the scrip dividend paid out in January. This amount will increase gradually over the course of the Strategic Plan until it reaches €0.75/share. In 2025, shareholder remuneration will be at least €1/share, including cash payment and share buybacks to be made from 2022 onwards.

Just a snippet from the Repsol website (had a nice dividend on Friday that I wasn't expecting!).

That was a nice surprise. Overseas divi payment, be nice if all the big oilles paid one like that.

[Animal Spirits]

14 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Tech/ Semiconductors - on this, Mr Hunter has been bang-on for the past 15 months. I can’t believe the parabolic ramp of, Nvidia.

Nvidia has gone on an absolute rip hasn't it, PE is now almost 95.

On a long term chart you can see where that outpeformance has concentrated compared with equal index weighting:

However, in the one year chart the equal weighting index has outperformed the market cap weighted index:

[Noallegiance]

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

This is something i think about alot since you mentioned similar a while back even though it should have been so obvious and with the pandemic, watching companies have shortages especially car companies with all the parts they require

Also talking about Tobacco companies

One of the world’s biggest cigarette makers faces a backlash after striking a £927 million deal to buy a British respiratory drug company that works on treatments for smoking-related diseases.

Philip Morris International, the maker of Marlboro cigarettes, surprised the City yesterday by revealing that it had agreed to acquire Vectura, the FTSE 250-listed business, in the biggest move by a tobacco company into the healthcare industry.

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

I bought cigars with my medical exemption card around my neck

Even i cringed a bit but fuck em

[M S E Refugee]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

I hope i live to see historians assessment of our age. 

 

It'll be in mandarin of course........

[ThoughtCriminal]

Amusing Shrinkflation anecdote

 

Bought a few hundred disposable suits we wear for removing azzy, always XXXL as im a big lump. 

 

Put one on for a job today and they were that tight i could hardly walk in them. Checked the labels, all XXXL. 

 

Popped into the supplier on the way back home to complain. 

 

Supplier: Yeah the manufacturer is using less material to cut down on costs as everythings going the roof. They're still the same size though. 

 

Me:  How the fuck are they the same size? This is now as tight as an XL used to be!

 

Supplier: (Long pause) Cos it's still XXXL. See, it's written on the box. 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

 

I now realise the Spinal Tap "This one goes to 11" scene was based on real life. 

 

 

 

 

[Noallegiance]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Amusing Shrinkflation anecdote

 

Bought a few hundred disposable suits we wear for removing azzy, always XXXL as im a big lump. 

 

Put one on for a job today and they were that tight i could hardly walk in them. Checked the labels, all XXXL. 

 

Popped into the supplier on the way back home to complain. 

 

Supplier: Yeah the manufacturer is using less material to cut down on costs as everythings going the roof. They're still the same size though. 

 

Me:  How the fuck are they the same size? This is now as tight as an XL used to be!

 

Supplier: (Long pause) Cos it's still XXXL. See, it's written on the box. 

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

 

I now realise the Spinal Tap "This one goes to 11" scene was based on real life. 

 

 

 

 

Lockdown weight gain?

[ThoughtCriminal]

20 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Lockdown weight gain?

Ive actually lost a stone!

 

Id best lose a few more as this is now the biggest size they do. 

 

Whatever the fuck size it is. 

 

They're probably just making one size and putting different stickers on them now. 

 

Best part is the price has gone UP 🤦‍♂️🤣

[Hancock]

16 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Ironic that my lasting memory of covid will be people going to shops in masks to buy cigarettes.

Fat people (which is about half the country) with a shopping trolley full of sugary drinks, processed food, cakes and sweets ... but wearing a mask to keep them alive will be my over-riding memory.

[Castlevania]

On 09/07/2021 at 15:18, planit said:

I am getting a bit jumpy today, market is acting nervous and I think it might be due to the Delta variant. It's the speed of the growth. It could set off a drop for a few weeks. My hand is hovering on the sell button.

I realise this is not deaths and you will tell me I am stupid.

Just a random selection:

 

Edit: 30% in cash now to have a relaxing weekend. Let's see what happens next week.

In the Netherlands they’ve reintroduced some restrictions after two weeks of freedoms, so I can no longer watch the Euros final in the pub. The stupid thing is, to go to anywhere confined (a nightclub, cinema, theatre etc) you had to get a lateral flow test no more than 40 hours before entry from a government run testing for events service. The spike in positive cases is coming from asymptomatic young people taking tests for entry.