Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Lightscribe]

ONS seem to be reluctant to answer the FOI straightforward manner. However they have the 2020 stats which they didn’t have last time I looked.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/totalukdeaths2010to2020

so let’s see for ourselves 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

Yes we’ve had less people walking in front of buses on their daily commute as well as the vulnerable shielding, but I’d argue that equals out with deaths through mental heath or cancer/organ and urgent treatment/surgery being cancelled or delayed.

So our overall death total in the UK for 2020 was at the lowest in 3 years according to my workings. 

[Lightscribe]

11 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

The problem is nobody seems to have a fucking clue what's going on, The way governments are acting is just fucking weird 

Personally I have no fucking clue what's going on but I'm becoming more suspicious by the day

 

 

Oh they have a ‘clue’ what’s going on alright.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

The problem is nobody seems to have a fucking clue what's going on, The way governments are acting is just fucking weird 

Personally I have no fucking clue what's going on but I'm becoming more suspicious by the day

 

 

I think this is the issue. There is so much contradiction and confusion that people are distracted `rabbit in the headlights` like, whilst powers interact laws that would normally be met with massive resistance......people need to start ignoring the distractions/rules/Covid, and start focussing on what they are legislating on.

[MrXxxx]

13 hours ago, Loki said:

I'm starting to wonder if any of what we've discussed will be any use, really.  

Yeah sure my ISA and SIPP will look great, my stash will shine brilliantly (And may yet be used to "Bribe the guards" @DurhamBorn )

But the way things are going...what was the fucking point of any of it?

I wasn't joking above, it's just my opinion of course - they really do need an excuse for the BK, and will never admit it was baked in from the start due to their decisions.

My only hope is once it is over (Short and sharp as per David Hunter), this insanity can be put behind us, so we can get on with the insanity of pretending a gas plants breathe is killing the planet while the Sun is erroneous and we need to spend trillions on infrastructure because "It's just Science©, OK?"

I never wanted to be RICH rich, I just wanted a degree of insulation from money worries etc but I suppose that was too much to ask

/rant

Agree, my early retirement plans look very different now to what they did two years ago, and not financially but socially. My concern now is that however successful my financial planning may have been, I will end up as a prisoner in my own country, the level of freedom dictated by my compliance with untested/undemocratic health policy, and so not be able to enjoy the `fruits of my labour`

[HousePriceMania]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Oh they have a ‘clue’ what’s going on alright.

It all makes perfect sense if you work on the premise that the banking system collapsed Dec 2019 and they are trying to keep it all going to save them from being strung up.

....

Think about it...everything now makes sense.

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, Don Coglione said:

My conspiracy side does rather wonder whether whatever is in the Covid "vaccinations", that they are so determined to inject into all of us, will be added to the established and recognised flu jab.

Does anyone else find the throwaway use of the term "jab" disturbing?

I find the use vulgar and uneducated, almost `dumbing down` for the populus. As for the former, I have no plans to have that either, but I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't put something in the water...you see, even I am starting to think like a conspiricist (mean in all seriousness!).

[DoINeedOne]

5 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I think this is the issue. There is so much contradiction and confusion that people are distracted `rabbit in the headlights` like, whilst powers interact laws that would normally be met with massive resistance......people need to start ignoring the distractions/rules/Covid, and start focussing on what they are legislating on.

One of the issues with the internet news, blogs, social media is its too much information not just about covid it can be about anything

NOISE

I think we can all do well in switching off the news whilst i don't watch the news and have a huge twitter keyword block list for keywords like Brexit, Covid, Covid19 etc....

Even with that i have been feeling quite drained with it all lately

Need to block more keywords and accounts and restrict my reading down to just a few newsletters and websites like here

And focus on moving forward 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, planit said:

Ok, I will read up in the Covid section, cheers.

 

Good point regarding the workplace, I really wish I just swallowed the blue pill, could be savouring that lovely juicy steak without a worry in the world at the moment.

....and the point is, a) would you have expected to be making such a statement 16 months ago, and b) almost in such an `acceptable` manner?....little by little we have all been nudged from point A to Z without realizing, and now feel grateful for any `crumbs` of  liberty/personal freedom that previously we took as our right.

[MrXxxx]

Sorry folks, went completely off thread and should have posted elsewhere...anyway, I was surprised yesterday at the Scottish Plays share price given the announcement. To me the only crumb of good news was the mention of keeping their 20% nuclear, and this seemed very non-commital...what did others think?

[Bricormortis]

40 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

It all makes perfect sense if you work on the premise that the banking system collapsed Dec 2019   Sept 2008 and they are trying to keep it all going to save them from being strung up.

....

Think about it...everything now makes sense.

fixed for you

[planit]

https://www.ft.com/content/b696720f-fed4-4f4b-acbd-302f8935c73e

 

Some choice quotes:
 

This doesn't seem like policy, are we now lead to believe that we won't switch to gas if it is too expensive?

surging natural gas prices have prompted some utility companies in Japan and Europe to switch to coal, further tightening the market. 

 

Quote

 

All this has come as electricity demand has picked up with Covid-related lockdowns easing. After falling about 1 per cent in 2020, global electricity demand is set to grow close to 5 per cent in 2021 and 4 per cent in 2022, according to the International Energy Agency.

“While renewable energy sources are expected to continue to grow rapidly, they will only be able to serve around half of the net demand increase in 2021 and 2022,” the IEA said in its latest Electricity Market Report.

 

 

Quote

 

Further ahead, the big question for thermal coal is whether environmental polices will result in demand weakening more quickly than supply as banks and insurers refuse to fund new projects.

“I expect supply to fall faster than demand,” said Price at Liberum, who thinks China and India will continue to buy coal in the export market for the next decade. “It is a super tight market. It’s not going to crash in a heap.”

 

 

 

 

This article shows how all the energy sources are inter-related. As gas becomes more expensive, coal usage goes up. But coal is expensive, oil is expensive, nuclear is fixed for 10 years so there will be nowhere to go, everyone's electricity/gas prices are going up hugely.

 

We are still accelerating into this supply problem (all fossil fuels) with no sign we are going to change policy.

Security prices should respond once this becomes obvious and I can't see it being that long, that is why I am keeping an eye out for these kind of 'realisation' articles, they will become more common.

The way demand is increasing across all energy I feel this will be before the end of the year.

 

ps - I keep chuckling to myself at all the Electric 'zero emission' vehicles on Indian roads that are powered by coal.

pps  - The EV sales projections don't take into account a tripling of electricity prices in the next 5 years.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry folks, went completely off thread and should have posted elsewhere...anyway, I was surprised yesterday at the Scottish Plays share price given the announcement. To me the only crumb of good news was the mention of keeping their 20% nuclear, and this seemed very non-commital...what did others think?

They had £3 billion of debt a year ago,£500mill after the Direct Energy sale,now £90mill,outide of the pension they are net debt free.Not all good though,a lot of the debts are at high interest and they cant buy back the bonds because of that,so they are net debt free,but still will have a big interest bill until things run off.

I thought for a long time the nuclear side was what put off buyers for a takeover,but maybe not.Just maybe a big oily might fancy it.If BP is serious about hydrogen,and they are building a huge plant on Teesside,Rough would be a fantastic storage facility.Then maybe they would fancy nuclear.Big oil will have the capital,more than anyone.Owning the nuclear,the gas and the windfarms gives you massive advantages in pricing going forward.

Its a destroyer of capital over the long term,and has emptied a couple of 2nd hand cars out of my pocket,but there could be some very good upside.

Im wondering on future divis though.I would of though 3p might be the starting level once they pay again.

 

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, planit said:

https://www.ft.com/content/b696720f-fed4-4f4b-acbd-302f8935c73e

 

Some choice quotes:
 

This doesn't seem like policy, are we now lead to believe that we won't switch to gas if it is too expensive?

surging natural gas prices have prompted some utility companies in Japan and Europe to switch to coal, further tightening the market. 

 

 

 

This article shows how all the energy sources are inter-related. As gas becomes more expensive, coal usage goes up. But coal is expensive, oil is expensive, nuclear is fixed for 10 years so there will be nowhere to go, everyone's electricity/gas prices are going up hugely.

 

We are still accelerating into this supply problem (all fossil fuels) with no sign we are going to change policy.

Security prices should respond once this becomes obvious and I can't see it being that long, that is why I am keeping an eye out for these kind of 'realisation' articles, they will become more common.

The way demand is increasing across all energy I feel this will be before the end of the year.

 

ps - I keep chuckling to myself at all the Electric 'zero emission' vehicles on Indian roads that are powered by coal.

pps  - The EV sales projections don't take into account a tripling of electricity prices in the next 5 years.

 

Exactly,the whole thing is a farce.As iv always said Indians getting a fridge concerns me more than anything Boris says.Its also why i think nature based offsets are going to be huge,and rightly so.Why fund dodgy renewables when you can save and re-plant rainforests,or re-wild lots of our uplands etc,wetlands etc etc.Africa is prime for this and they are already doing fantastic work planting in Ethiopia and along the southern edge of the sahara to stop its spread.

Whale bone went up 25x in price and outperformed a basket of commods by 50x once whale oil was replaced.There will be lots of massive inflation spikes in products that rely on oil refineries etc going forward.

[CVG]

Are we expecting BT to resume dividends with an interim in Feb? If they resumed at previous rates then that would be around 8%. Is 4 or 5% more likely?

[ONC]

Interesting OBR report on “Debt maturity, quantitative easing and interest rate sensitivity”
 

https://obr.uk/box/debt-maturity-quantitative-easing-and-interest-rate-sensitivity/

Seems to say that mean maturity of uk government debt has been reduced by QE, because the QE money financed at overnight rate. Thus making overall debt far more sensitive to increases in interest rates than was the case before the 2008 financial crisis. Possibility of viscous fiscal feedback cycle coming?

 

 

[Castlevania]

22 minutes ago, CVG said:

Are we expecting BT to resume dividends with an interim in Feb? If they resumed at previous rates then that would be around 8%. Is 4 or 5% more likely?

They’ve announced that they will cut. I’m expecting between 5 and 8 pence per share as an annual dividend once they resume. 

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

One of the issues with the internet news, blogs, social media is its too much information not just about covid it can be about anything

NOISE

I think we can all do well in switching off the news whilst i don't watch the news and have a huge twitter keyword block list for keywords like Brexit, Covid, Covid19 etc....

Even with that i have been feeling quite drained with it all lately

Need to block more keywords and accounts and restrict my reading down to just a few newsletters and websites like here

And focus on moving forward 

Agreed.  Some successful traders say their performance (and quality of life) went up leaving Wall Street and turning off MNBC.

I don't do msm or social media apart from here and TalkRadio or TimesRadio (only a bit).  Even then I skip the news.  I don't even have a TV licence (not needed).  I have some targeted newsletters and read what I need but then the charts are everything to me.  I don't waste energy on natter or speculation, I just look at the price action.  Just the facts.  KISS.  I used to be different (avid R4, etc).  It's taken many years to get to this point.  I'm very happy.

My one posting vice is here (but then the quality of information is A1)!

[DurhamBorn]

BT divi will be 7.7p ,they might go slightly higher at 7.9p.Id expect the interim to be first and likely at 1/3 final.Id expect the divi to increase at around 4%pa

Notice today Vodafone saying revenue up 3%.They will say its extra customers etc,and some of the African bit will be,but it should be the start of inflation starting to feed through.Id expect the affect on free cash to be double,then halfway through cycle as capex falls treble to quadruple.We need to see if the other big telcos also come up with service revenue growth,if they all or mostly do inflation is starting to feed in,just the start.

On Vod i expect they will want another Euro 5 billion of their debts yet,but then a share buyback more likely than divi increases,or a 2% divi increase and 3% share buybacks.

[planit]

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Agreed.  Some successful traders say their performance (and quality of life) went up leaving Wall Street and turning off MNBC.

I don't do msm or social media apart from here and TalkRadio or TimesRadio (only a bit).  Even then I skip the news.  I don't even have a TV licence (not needed).  I have some targeted newsletters and read what I need but then the charts are everything to me.  I don't waste energy on natter or speculation, I just look at the price action.  Just the facts.  KISS.  I used to be different (avid R4, etc).  It's taken many years to get to this point.  I'm very happy.

My one posting vice is here (but then the quality of information is A1)!

I hope that one of my skills is scanning the news, quickly filter out the crap and adjust for bias.

Bias, for example, is the woke journalists, you look for key words they use to get an idea for how far gone they are and then you know how much to adjust for. The FT coal article I posted earlier was ok but there was another article on Biden that was pretty skewed. 

The problem is people are investing with ESG goggles on so it is inevitable we will be missing out on good opportunities as the biggest moves will be irrational to our thinking.

Examples are ESG funds, crazy hydrogen projects that will eventually go bust, EV car companies that have never built a production line etc.

Long term I am using BP for these as they will cherry pick the working ones as the cycle moves on. But I want to trade much shorter term so I need to learn more and buy a pair of woke tinted sunglasses.

[Castlevania]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

BT divi will be 7.7p ,they might go slightly higher at 7.9p.Id expect the interim to be first and likely at 1/3 final.Id expect the divi to increase at around 4%pa

Notice today Vodafone saying revenue up 3%.They will say its extra customers etc,and some of the African bit will be,but it should be the start of inflation starting to feed through.Id expect the affect on free cash to be double,then halfway through cycle as capex falls treble to quadruple.We need to see if the other big telcos also come up with service revenue growth,if they all or mostly do inflation is starting to feed in,just the start.

On Vod i expect they will want another Euro 5 billion of their debts yet,but then a share buyback more likely than divi increases,or a 2% divi increase and 3% share buybacks.

Vodafone’s annual inflation linked price increase for mobile phone contracts is now CPI plus 3.9%

[Bricormortis]

Question.....  if i buy an etf with an annual charge of 1%, and hold it for one tenth of a year, generally should I expect to get charged 0.1% or the whole 1 % ?

I have tended to think well if you want to play the game  it is what it is. But I am thinking about how I might be organising myself in the future and I think I need to get wise as regards charges. The info supplied on Kids or whatever seems a bit scant and uninformative. Tells you what you dont need to know instead of what you do need to know.

[Castlevania]

35 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Question.....  if i buy an etf with an annual charge of 1%, and hold it for one tenth of a year, generally should I expect to get charged 0.1% or the whole 1 % ?

I have tended to think well if you want to play the game  it is what it is. But I am thinking about how I might be organising myself in the future and I think I need to get wise as regards charges. The info supplied on Kids or whatever seems a bit scant and uninformative. Tells you what you dont need to know instead of what you do need to know.

Should be charged daily

[Mapper]

52 minutes ago, planit said:

woke tinted sunglasses.

This year's DOSBODs must have stocking filler.

[sancho panza]

On 20/07/2021 at 20:26, Cattle Prod said:

I guess the question is chicken or egg: did population grow because of the availability of fossil fuels. Yes, I think. Global warming is a thing, it's always been a thing, mostly controlled by the giant nuclear reactor in the sky. Only question is are we doing it now? Probably. Is it a probelm? I doubt it. Someone upthread mentioned a large dynamic system and that is exactly what Earth is. Far, far too complex to model. We've only been able to get the weather forecast out from 3 days to 10 days with all our computing power, never mind global climate. Modelling climate is impossible, as much like epidemic modelling you either add in or leave out key variables (according to your bias!). One thing you can say with certainty is that the Earth had handled CO2 levels way higher than present: they were 4 x higher in the Jurassic, and the dinosaurs had pretty good craic it seems. The second thing you can say is our CO2 contributions will level off naturally at a much lower level as the supply of fossil fuels levels off and then declines. I suspect that the powers behind the ESG/woke/Greta movement can see this, and are simply trying to grab the opportunity before it passes. Over a geoloical time span, current CO2 levels are actually very low. Any greenhouse effect with our CO2 contribution will likely be offset and regulated elsewhere in the complex dyanamic sytem we live on, that is not yet understood. Probably the oceans, they regulate almost everything.

It's what I call teh Greta paradox.She wants the world's 7 billion population she just doesn't want the fossil fuels that created them and sustains them.

[sancho panza]

On 21/07/2021 at 07:32, dnb24 said:

Compare this year to last year- hospitalisation and deaths fell off a cliff during summer too in 2020. This Autumn/winter will be the acid test of vaccines- however conclusions on their effectiveness will Have to take into account the “dry tinder” that was taken out of the population last year, and the “herd immunity”. 
If there is anything approaching normal excess deaths this winter or exceed normal excess deaths then conclusion on the vaccines would indicate they were useless or they are actually causing people to die.

It would also be nice to see a vaguely independent assessment of the risk reward for various age groups.The vaccine isn't prefect by any stretch and there are clear dangers.UK yellow card system reporting 1470 detahs so far,linked to vaccine.WHere do you read that in the press?

Over the last year,I've got really tired of hearing how young kids should be off school.LS reporting only 1.6% of kids test postive during isolation today.

On 21/07/2021 at 08:01, Castlevania said:

Cases dropped significantly last Summer. What we’re seeing is a huge increase in cases and both hospitalisation and deaths collapsing. It does suggest that the vaccines are working.

As for whether there’s any need to take it. If you’re old or fat you should take the vaccine. If you don’t fit into those categories then you never had anything to fear from Covid.

WHat I suspect we're seeing is a virus  mutating into a weaker more infectious form.

AS for your advice on whetehr to take the vaccine,I think you're more bag on than most of the doctors they parade on GMTV.Genuinely good advice that will stand the test of time imho.

On 21/07/2021 at 16:25, DurhamBorn said:

This is the worst conservative government iv ever seen by a very large margin and yet a billion times better than Labour.The red wall seats all fell around me because people are sick of scroungers.Those landing on boats,and those home born.The government have no backbone at all though and have created a huge mess.Shelves are half empty yet nobody wants to work.It will need the BOE to pull back from QE to then focus the mind.My partner is a nurse but working for the council in a responder role.They are really short staffed and all their bosses are sat at home on huge salaries doing nothing at all really.They advertised jobs,but only 2 candidates were suitable,and one decided they didnt want the job.So a big push got them one employee when they needed 8.Almost all my partners workmates are wanting to retire soon and starting to go on the sick every few months to force the issue.

This is what happens when people see others better off than them for doing nothing at all.

 

I'm noticing changes in attitudes at work -NHS.Lot of the younger members of staff are making quietly critical comments on the amount of money some people are getting on benefits-particularly the alcholics for instance who get disability-not for the alcholism but the problems caused by the alcohol-.
Things are changing.

ALso seeing a lot of people declining overtime.Last night shift I was on we had 60% of normal crew levels and we had 60% more work.Short story long,it was a stresful night and I totally get why we're losing staff.The money's crap until you've been in a few years and by then most people are burned out.

A&E is getting smashed too.Lot of GP's not seeing many people.

Must say,these lockdowns have a lot of unintended cosnsequences.I warned acquaintances who were pro lockdown what would happen a year down the line and here we are and it's even worse than I thought.