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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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geordie_lurch

Yep they will also be able to monitor EVERY transaction you make (see ft here http://archive.today/UO2Jw ) as well as restrict how and where you spend it before linking it to a social credit score like this :S

 

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1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

Of course, like the classic salesman, the most important point is left until last. 

"A digital currency where customers have accounts directly linked to the Bank of England would also make it far easier to issue so-called 'helicopter' money, where funds are injected into people's pockets by the Government.

This could prove a more effective way of stimulating the economy in times of crisis than quantitative easing (QE)."

The process known as psychological anchoring continues.

It's covid all over again!

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geordie_lurch
26 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's covid all over again!

You do realise it's all part of the same agenda?

Covid = CBDCs + Social Credit Scores + Totalitarian control of your life

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Bobthebuilder
35 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You do realise it's all part of the same agenda?

Covid = CBDCs + Social Credit Scores + Totalitarian control of your life

= The biggest civil unrest you have seen in your lifetime. Bring it on, I say.

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geordie_lurch

I hope you are right but if they start with all those who are on benefits (inc future furlough) and they move them over what are they going to do to resist - not take it and go on hunger (fags, alcohol, mobile) strike?

It will then move onto others having to pay taxes via it and there's always the possibility of a 'debt jubilee' for those who transfer their debt (mortgages?) over to the new Britcoin. The possibilities and methods of control and coercion are limitless :ph34r:

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48 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You do realise it's all part of the same agenda?

Covid = CBDCs + Social Credit Scores + Totalitarian control of your life

Agreed.  I was thinking more the same techniques.

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49 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

You do realise it's all part of the same agenda?

Covid = CBDCs + Social Credit Scores + Totalitarian control of your life

The frightening thing is you are probably correct.

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12 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

= The biggest civil unrest you have seen in your lifetime. Bring it on, I say.

I have no hope.  First you build a "client state".  Done.  Then you....

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7 hours ago, Seacrest said:

More BP exposure to renewables, i wonder if they grow and float?  50%  holding, be interesting to see in the results ahead if this gets more of a mention,  certainly a lot going onhttps://www.lightsourcebp.com/about/

3.5GW developed and a development pipeline of 20GW   you can dig a little deeper if needed by going to companies house and searching lightsourcebp for financial information and a lot more backround. 

 

 

 

Thanks Seacrest, many posts lately about thee type of projects. So do we just accept (in investment terms) that BP (and Shell) are just going big and early into renewables/esg, and that in the medium/long term their business model won't suffer compared to the other oilies?                                                                                                                                What I mean is the other oilies (eg ENI) appear to have a more strategically balanced approach to esg, etc. My biggest holdings are BP and Shell, so I'm thinking it might be wise, from a long term buy and hold perspective, to pivot away from them two and go more into others such as ENI/Total/Gazprom, etc.                                                                                                                                                                   I recall @DurhamBornsaying some months back that he will be looking to reduce his Shell holding because of their esg/business direction. What does the thread think?

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17 minutes ago, JMD said:

Thanks Seacrest, many posts lately about thee type of projects. So do we just accept (in investment terms) that BP (and Shell) are just going big and early into renewables/esg, and that in the medium/long term their business model won't suffer compared to the other oilies?                                                                                                                                What I mean is the other oilies (eg ENI) appear to have a more strategically balanced approach to esg, etc. My biggest holdings are BP and Shell, so I'm thinking it might be wise, from a long term buy and hold perspective, to pivot away from them two and go more into others such as ENI/Total/Gazprom, etc.                                                                                                                                                                   I recall @DurhamBornsaying some months back that he will be looking to reduce his Shell holding because of their esg/business direction. What does the thread think?

I have sold most of my Shell,bought a lot of telcos with it including Orange SA,TEF Germany,TEF Brasil, Turkcell etc and some Asian dividend trusts.I made a decent if below par in context profit , 26% including divis and still hold a few.Iv very big holdings in BP and Repsol and smaller holdings in several others.Shell is very well placed for gas etc,but i wanted to re-allocate some capital and chose Shell.

Im fine with BP investing in renewables as long as they stick to the capital plan.That spare 40% of excess cashflow though after 60% goes on buybacks better go into more buy backs,then debt reductions once over £4 and then special divis.Not throwing even more at windmills.

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6 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Of course, like the classic salesman, the most important point is left until last. 

"A digital currency where customers have accounts directly linked to the Bank of England would also make it far easier to issue so-called 'helicopter' money, where funds are injected into people's pockets by the Government.

This could prove a more effective way of stimulating the economy in times of crisis than quantitative easing (QE)."

The process known as psychological anchoring continues.

I know the government control and personal freedom debate around CDBCs. It is discussed here often But are there other implied big policy steps that follow after a government enacts cdbc's?                                                                  For example, once the (300 year) private banking franchise has been taken back in-house by government, and banks become just utilities, wouldn't the link between money and currency then become massively distorted, ie far too incestruouse? Maybe not immediately, but wouldnt the effect be that free floating exchange rates would eventually have to become fixed? ...Perhaps my question is irrelevant to the cdbc process and doesn't make sense - but I ask mainly because of the potential negative effect on foreign held investments, so very much welcome others comments.

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Noallegiance

I know of crypto-fans who are now claiming that governments know they can't beat it so they're joining it.

I'm more of the opinion that they're beating it BY joining it.

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Noallegiance
4 hours ago, Harley said:

It's covid all over again!

The irony.

On the day an article comes out covering how bad it is that the debt to GDP is now 99.7%, we have another article selling the benefits of pumping more debt directly into peoples bank accounts as some kind of fix for future crises.

 

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23 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I know of crypto-fans who are now claiming that governments know they can't beat it so they're joining it.

I'm more of the opinion that they're beating it BY joining it.

The entire point of cryptos/digital currency is govt have no control to debase it.

Think Sunak is missing this point.

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Don Coglione
1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I know of crypto-fans who are now claiming that governments know they can't beat it so they're joining it.

I'm more of the opinion that they're beating it BY joining it.

Exactly, twas ever to be thus.

1 hour ago, Hancock said:

The entire point of cryptos/digital currency is govt have no control to debase it.

Think Sunak is missing this point.

A stroke of the legislator's pen changes that. 

Please, no more crypto on this thread though!

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Lightscribe
8 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

= The biggest civil unrest you have seen in your lifetime. Bring it on, I say.

This response is expected and has already been planned and accounted for. The control mechanisms have already been put into place.

Destruction of logistics and supply chains, climate change disasters. Amazing the control and what people will adhere to when they need to feed their families. 

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4 hours ago, Hancock said:

The entire point of cryptos/digital currency is govt have no control to debase it.

Think Sunak is missing this point.

No that was the whole point of why crypto was allowed to continue until up to now. The development and infrastructure needed to be put into place. Not the other way around.

The government blockchain is what the whole 4th industrial revolution is based on. For those that are still dismissing the future of blockchain and crypto on this thread (Not you Hancock) are still missing the whole point of what is being implemented  to replace capitalism.

It doesn’t matter what Bitcoin is worth or what shit coins exist or what are scams etc.  It’s all going to be phased out and replaced, that’s why ISO 20022 exists.

https://www.weforum.org/communities/digital-currency-governance-consortium

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Eion Tracey on Financial Sense suggesting inflation transitionary but I noticed the data point that much of the recent inflation was essentially chip shortage driven (new plant to come on line)!   He liked gold and carbon credits.  Someone else mentioned Health Services (could be busy with the "vaccine" after affects).  Interesting areas to look at.

PS: Re. The Health Services, my thought on the vaccine, not the podcast's!

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

Eion Tracey on Financial Sense suggesting inflation transitionary but I noticed the data point that much of the recent inflation was essentially chip shortage driven (new plant to come on line)!   He liked gold and carbon credits.  Someone else mentioned Health Services (could be busy with the "vaccine" after affects).  Interesting areas to look at.

PS: Re. The Health Services, my thought on the vaccine, not the podcast's!

Carbon credits? Do you know much about these Harley? Most on here might be spitting at their keyboard at the mere mention of them!! But my view is that companies will be forced to buy them to fulfil their esg targets, and the green revolution/religion is here to stay - so a 'safe(?) bond type' investment, or at least a way to further diversify a portfolio?                                                                                                                                              I have mentioned on here before that Marin Katusa, a respected commodity investor, is predicting big gains for carbon credits. He is a massive convert to them and predicts 8x return this decade, if I recall him correctly, for buy and hold investors into the right CC's. Katusa is interesting because he is backing away from the oilies, formerly his No1 sector, and now sees CC's as the big winner this decade. I don't agree with him because his base case relies on tech providing solutions to the problems renewables currently have In terms of improving efficiency, etc. However I think there is a case for at least a small allocation in CC's. Unfortunately I don't know anything about CC's, but hope others here might have begun investigating the sector? Perhaps a starting point is looking at which ones the oilies are buying?

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5 minutes ago, JMD said:

Carbon credits? Do you know much about these Harley? Most on here might be spitting at their keyboard at the mere mention of them!! But my view is that companies will be forced to buy them to fulfil their esg targets, and the green revolution/religion is here to stay - so a 'safe(?) bond type' investment, or at least a way to further diversify a portfolio?                                                                                                                                              I have mentioned on here before that Marin Katusa, a respected commodity investor, is predicting big gains for carbon credits. He is a massive convert to them and predicts 8x return this decade, if I recall him correctly, for buy and hold investors into the right CC's. Katusa is interesting because he is backing away from the oilies, formerly his No1 sector, and now sees CC's as the big winner this decade. I don't agree with him because his base case relies on tech providing solutions to the problems renewables currently have In terms of improving efficiency, etc. However I think there is a case for at least a small allocation in CC's. Unfortunately I don't know anything about CC's, but hope others here might have begun investigating the sector? Perhaps a starting point is looking at which ones the oilies are buying?

Not yet (apart from a bullish chart!) so need to learn.  Eion was bullish while being bearish on oil for similar reasons.  Then I listen to David Hunter who's bullish on oil to $300!

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Pinkpanther
On 19/07/2021 at 16:39, HousePriceMania said:

Friend of mine was telling me at the weekend, Furlough has existed in Germany for decades.  When SME can keep their staff busy they furlough them ( 80% pay, say ) then bring them back when needed.

Is that true ?

Sorry if some one has replied but I'm catching up. 

Yes its called Kurzarbeit

Its similar to furlough. 

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17 hours ago, Hancock said:

The entire point of cryptos/digital currency is govt have no control to debase it.

Think Sunak is missing this point.

I think the point is,   they don’t want to make bitcoin ilegal until they can offer an official government alternative.  
 

Once there are official government digital currencies,  all others will be branded “evil” funding terrorism, organised crime, people trafficking..  etc etc.  At that point I could see them either banning it,  or taxing/controlling it to the point that they no longer see it as a threat to the official state currencies.   Just my 2 cents.

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I seeing a divergence on my general miners between price and momentum.  This often results in a sharp correction in one of the two with either momentum up to align with the price trend or a fall in price to match the trend in momentum.  Price seems to be rising/holding while momentum has been waning.

Take GLEN on the weekly as an example:

Capture.thumb.PNG.d3873e9811647d1f641d3b7af1814112.PNG

Just an observation for discussion purposes.  Not trading/investing advice.  DYOR.

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