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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

:o

Good luck.

I worked for GSK for over a decade,some of my old friends there are working on vaccines right now,adjuvant is actually been made in the same suite i used to make Imigran in a place called steriles.The vaccines are working fine and doing what they were designed to,stop as many deaths as they can.They arent designed to stop infection,that would be ludicrous and would never be an aim.That would come later,if at all.Most vaccine talk is utter bullshit.They are quite simple things unlike a lot of pharma.

I had cancer and got an infection,a bad one,i would of died, i was injected with Zinacef,a cephalosporin.I asked for the bottle,id made the batch myself.I made 67k that day,67k people got that in hospital and for many it saved their life.

The vaccines are a no brainer for over 45s,choice in over 30s,below probably not unless overweight.

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46 minutes ago, wherebee said:

Biden took the ball from trump re sanctions on china and ran with it all the way to the end zone.  It's only going to get worse.  I have to be ultra aware because in Australia so many clients clients are in China, and if they get sanctioned overnight, goodbye to all the investment.

I wouldn't invest in any mainland company right now - you could wake up one morning and find the US has sanctioned it.  Even if you don't lose money, you can't get it back.

You can never remove money from China. At least legally, above board.

 

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Electric cars got me thinking if Germany who is hell bent on going green has caused electric bills to increase for users what happens when more and more people want electric to charge their cars cost of charging your car just keeps increasing 

 

From BBC

MPs have set out some clear concerns - notably that people who don't have access to off-street parking or who live in remote areas might struggle to charge electric cars, and would be obliged to pay more for the power they use.

They want the government to make sure this doesn't happen. 

One issue raised is that different public charging networks currently have their own payment and operating systems, making it difficult for drivers to swap from one to another.

They want guarantees that as networks grow, they will be made more compatible - and that pricing will be transparent. 

Then there's what happens when millions of electric cars make demands on the electricity grid. 

Demand for power will rise, and MPs have voiced concerns that this could lead to blackouts in parts of the country.

 

 

Anyway

Small update about INFL ETF https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/#holdings

 

No major changes still 

1076863468_Screenshot2021-07-28at12_29_36.thumb.png.7c35406b61efc29123210e5f103cd118.png

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2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Electric cars got me thinking if Germany who is hell bent on going green has caused electric bills to increase for users what happens when more and more people want electric to charge their cars cost of charging your car just keeps increasing 

 

From BBC

MPs have set out some clear concerns - notably that people who don't have access to off-street parking or who live in remote areas might struggle to charge electric cars, and would be obliged to pay more for the power they use.

They want the government to make sure this doesn't happen. 

One issue raised is that different public charging networks currently have their own payment and operating systems, making it difficult for drivers to swap from one to another.

They want guarantees that as networks grow, they will be made more compatible - and that pricing will be transparent. 

Then there's what happens when millions of electric cars make demands on the electricity grid. 

Demand for power will rise, and MPs have voiced concerns that this could lead to blackouts in parts of the country.

 

 

Anyway

Small update about INFL ETF https://horizonkinetics.com/products/etf/infl/#holdings

 

No major changes still 

1076863468_Screenshot2021-07-28at12_29_36.thumb.png.7c35406b61efc29123210e5f103cd118.png

There are a lot of inflation feedback loops building in the renewable space that will push costs up more and more.Copper will likely double in the cycle even from here and thats the level some marginal production comes in to slow the increase.However that will force up the cost of everything from EVs to batteries.Then of course if you want to de-carbon the copper production the costs have increased and that again forces up copper prices.

Its all these feedback loops building that will make massive free cash flow for companies who have already built producing assets and are already depreciating them at a set rate.The question is how much rates increase on the debt used to built the assets.The companies that can use their own capital more should be in a much better position.

Everything leads to the oilies being in a superb place.The irony is,the thing that will in the end finish them off is putting them into the best macro position in history.

All of the above is also why i think nature based solutions will become hugely profitable and also companies that can fluctuate their power use.

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5 hours ago, Siggy said:

They need to redo that study so that the same cohort have the cognitive test before and after covid (difficult I know, now that it is so prevalent but could have been done over the last year). Merely comparing population level performance of those with and without will be confounded by how well you control for all the variables.

Let me make clear at the outset that I don't want that study to be true, and that I hope it isn't.

However, as I've often been at pains to point out to people when I get into arguments on this site, merely not wanting something to be true is a terrible basis for forming an argument against it.

It's a big study, 80,000 people. The researchers have already corrected for every variable that they can- like education status, socio-economic background etc., and still been left with a clear trend showing that covid appears to cause cognitive impairment.

Of course the one thing they can't control for is the question of whether being dim makes you more likely to catch covid in the first place. If you're too thick to understand how social distancing works, or how to wear a mask so that it covers both your mouth and your nose, say, then you quite possibly are at higher risk of catching it. But whether that is enough to explain such a strong trend is another matter; and to believe it you'd by extension have to believe that masks and social distancing do actually work, which I gather is not, in fact, a widely shared view in covid-sceptic circles.

For the further avoidance of doubt, I'm a genuine libertarian; I've had my jabs but I would be dead set against compelling anyone else to have them, and I'll never get or show a covid passport, on principle. However there is a difference between quietly deciding not to get the vaccine yourself, and trying to persuade others not to get it by quoting junk science, or blatantly misinterpreting studies that quite clearly show the opposite of what your're trying to prove. The vaccines do what they are designed to do, pretty well, and pretty safely.

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2 hours ago, wherebee said:

Biden took the ball from trump re sanctions on china and ran with it all the way to the end zone.  It's only going to get worse.  I have to be ultra aware because in Australia so many clients clients are in China, and if they get sanctioned overnight, goodbye to all the investment.

I wouldn't invest in any mainland company right now - you could wake up one morning and find the US has sanctioned it.  Even if you don't lose money, you can't get it back.

Fyi, I was talking HK here as mainland China is a no go.  The sanctions did not stop US folk holding (I think) or selling them, just not buying any more.

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There is no issue.  Few will be allowed and/or able to afford an electric car.  A classic case of using today's norms to discuss tomorrow's.

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For all you BAT kids

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57995285

The UK's largest tobacco firm says it sees cannabis as part of its future as it tries to move away from selling traditional cigarettes.

British American Tobacco said it wanted to "accelerate" its transformation by reducing the health impact of its products.

...

Releasing its half year results to the end of June, the tobacco giant reported an 8.1% rise in revenues to £12.18bn.

It said more than a third of its UK revenues now come from vaping brands such as Vuse, Velo and glo.

 

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16 minutes ago, Loki said:

Literally the sentence after the one you quoted:

19 minutes ago, Rave said:

But whether that is enough to explain such a strong trend is another matter; and to believe it you'd by extension have to believe that masks and social distancing do actually work, which I gather is not, in fact, a widely shared view in covid-sceptic circles.

I am merely pointing out, though you're apparently far too wound up to bother reading my posts properly, that thinking that there's a correlation between being dim and catching covid would be incompatible with a belief that masks and social distancing don't make any difference. I haven't taken a position on the matter in this thread, something that would be obvious to you if you could be bothered to read what I've said before hitting quote in a rage.

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1 minute ago, Rave said:

Literally the sentence after the one you quoted:

I am merely pointing out, though you're apparently far too wound up to bother reading my posts properly, that thinking that there's a correlation between being dim and catching covid would be incompatible with a belief that masks and social distancing don't make any difference. I haven't taken a position on the matter in this thread, something that would be obvious to you if you could be bothered to read what I've said before hitting quote in a rage.

whatever.thumb.png.7a84edb1cb9848964731f024b4a5db69.png

Apparently you're so smart you missed the entire sub-forum, I can't be bothered shitting up this thread with the same boring arguments.

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sleepwello'nights
28 minutes ago, Rave said:

 

For the further avoidance of doubt, I'm a genuine libertarian; I've had my jabs but I would be dead set against compelling anyone else to have them, and I'll never get or show a covid passport, on principle. However there is a difference between quietly deciding not to get the vaccine yourself, and trying to persuade others not to get it by quoting junk science, or blatantly misinterpreting studies that quite clearly show the opposite of what you're trying to prove. The vaccines do what they are designed to do, pretty well, and pretty safely.

I hope your conclusion that the gene therapy injections are effective and safe holds. My wife has had two injections, my son at least one. Don't recall which manufacturer, and many of my friends and acquaintances as well. If the fears of the "junk" science are correct than I have a fairly solitary existence to look forward to.

However, the junk science is presented by many eminent researchers. If it is so easily dismissed why is discussion suppressed along with alternative therapeutic treatments supported by many studies. The risk shown to exist by the Yellow Card and VAERS databases cannot be so easily dismissed. 

For many who have accepted the injection, so far so good. 

Anyway my fears are at a tangent to this thread and I've aired my misgivings in the relevant threads so I'll refrain from further comment in this thread. 

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The most reliable source of renewable energy must surely be tidal as the tides are regular come rain or shine.  I haven't heard much about tidal power for ages yet it seems to be on hte agenda again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-57991351

A tidal-powered turbine, which its makers say is the most powerful in the world, has started to generate electricity via the grid in Orkney.

The Orbital O2 has the capacity to meet the annual electricity demand of 2,000 homes for the next 15 years.

I can see this becoming more important than wind and solar for the UK and being an island we have plenty of places it could be installed if they can get the engineering to work OK.

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Talking Monkey
31 minutes ago, Loki said:

whatever.thumb.png.7a84edb1cb9848964731f024b4a5db69.png

Apparently you're so smart you missed the entire sub-forum, I can't be bothered shitting up this thread with the same boring arguments.

That lass is proper hot

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11 hours ago, Rave said:

Have you had covid yourself, out of interest? Only:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1418696473177362432?s=20

Have you read the study? It’s from a cohort of participants mainly between  January 2020-Feb 2020- 97% of participants who said they had covid during that time didn’t actually have any test to prove it- so to draw conclusions from this is extremely difficult. In my mind this is a bollox study like so many during this last 18month- but that could be because I’ve had covid and lost 25% of my previously already below average iq.

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reformed nice guy
1 hour ago, Rave said:

Literally the sentence after the one you quoted:

I am merely pointing out, though you're apparently far too wound up to bother reading my posts properly, that thinking that there's a correlation between being dim and catching covid would be incompatible with a belief that masks and social distancing don't make any difference. I haven't taken a position on the matter in this thread, something that would be obvious to you if you could be bothered to read what I've said before hitting quote in a rage.

What I find most amusing is that the same people doing the covid intelligence study would refuse to accept that sub saharan Africans have average IQs below 90

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reformed nice guy
18 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Have you read the study? It’s from a cohort of participants mainly between  January 2020-Feb 2020- 97% of participants who said they had covid during that time didn’t actually have any test to prove it- so to draw conclusions from this is extremely difficult. In my mind this is a bollox study like so many during this last 18month- but that could be because I’ve had covid and lost 25% of my previously already below average iq.

Table 4 shows that response time is one of the measurements. For an online test it could mean that someone had multiple browser tabs open and was flicking between them, read a text, went for a piss, answered a phone call etc.

In fact, being hospitalised improved your response time for 3 of the 8 tests. They left one of the response times for one of the tests out (word definitions) .... perhaps it didnt fit the narrative?

Test accuracy improved with hospitalisation for 3 of 9 tests - perhaps all the crosswords were training?

 

 

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14 hours ago, JMD said:

I agree the point your making SP. But 'deep down', all across this land, lots of cognitive dissonance is  happening, not good for individual mental health, nor for social cohesion. What I mean is - and if you allow me to make some assumptions - I think the example situation you cite might be acceptable to that paramedic if he actually believed there was a dangerous health pandemic (thus requiring extraordinary measures) and that the furlough payment unfairness was temporary (instead of being endemic across many lucky bennies). However, attempting to hold two contradictory thoughts in your head will eventually drive any person mad. 

Not if you're female xD

Sorry, just couldn't resist :ph34r:

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48 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

What I find most amusing is that the same people doing the covid intelligence study would refuse to accept that sub saharan Africans have average IQs below 90

But they're clever enough not to spend 18 months pissing the bed over a virus that isn't going to kill them, like the super intelligent educated people in the western world.

Time for a song that seems relevant -

 

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

Have you read the study? It’s from a cohort of participants mainly between  January 2020-Feb 2020- 97% of participants who said they had covid during that time didn’t actually have any test to prove it- so to draw conclusions from this is extremely difficult. In my mind this is a bollox study like so many during this last 18month- but that could be because I’ve had covid and lost 25% of my previously already below average iq.

But even if they had that pcr test wasn't it a sack of shiyte false positive giving test. 

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Surely there must now be more covid on DOSBODS than out there! :)

I'm smart, I know what I'm doing, I have my approach, I put the hours in and I buy and sell when I get good signals.  I do just fine.  And every now and then I have to freshen up with a bit of a walk away.

Same with covid!

Now, about this macro......or are we all done? 

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Another thread prediction hits the MSM:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/28/blackout-warning-drivers-must-charge-electric-cars-off-peak/

Blackouts are not difficult to predict, mind you, if you see base load power stations being shut while massively increasing the electrical load on the grid. As I've said before, they will take my wood burner out of my cold, dead hands @Harley :D

are we off again?

 

https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-inventory-fell-41-million-barrels-last-week-eia-2570912

Crude Inventory Fell 4.1 Million Barrels Last Week: EIA

Investing.com -- U.S. oil stockpiles fell by more than expected  in the latest week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Crude inventories dropped by 4.089 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations for a draw of 2.928 million barrels.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 3.088 million barrels in the week against expectations for a draw of 435,000 barrels, the EIA data showed.

Gasoline inventories fell by 2.253 million barrels last week the EIA said, compared with expectations for a draw of 916,000 barrels.

 

 

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ThoughtCriminal
13 hours ago, Rave said:

 

Right so hang on, vaccines are a 'fucking disaster' because they don't provide as much immunity against catching a potentially dangerous disease as catching the disease itself does?

5htmzn.jpg.e92e8aa42ec8d9a7298f47da5592ab79.jpg

 

Have you had covid yourself, out of interest? Only:

https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1418696473177362432?s=20

 

Potentially dangerous disease? 😂😂😂

 

Potentially is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. 

 

Think i listed more than one reason it was a disaster you utter fucking crank. 

 

Long covid 😂😂😂

 

Oh man, what a fucking bellend you are. 

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sancho panza

you couldn't make this up.British property punters rushed to save the stamp duty and then ended up paying way more for the hosue.Lolz......

https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/uk-house-prices-fall-in-july-as-tax-cut-is-scaled-back--nationwide-2570249

mortgage lender Nationwide said.

In monthly terms, house prices fell by 0.5% from June, their first fall since March, slowing the annual increase to 10.5% from June's leap of 13.4% which was the steepest rise in 17 years.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a less marked cooling of the market, predicting prices would rise by 0.6% from June and by 12.1% in annual terms.

Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner said the rush to qualify for the full tax break - housing transactions hit a record in June, according to official data - meant savings from the incentive had been dwarfed by the surge in house prices.

Under the incentive scheme, the first 500,000 pounds ($693,850.00) of any property purchase in England or Northern Ireland were exempt from the stamp duty tax until the end of June. A 250,000 pound tax-free allowance is now running until the end of September

Gardner said July's slowdown had been expected after the run-up in prices which rose by an average of 1.6% a month over the April-to-June period, more than six times the average monthly gain during the five years before the pandemic.

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ThoughtCriminal
3 hours ago, Rave said:

Let me make clear at the outset that I don't want that study to be true, and that I hope it isn't.

However, as I've often been at pains to point out to people when I get into arguments on this site, merely not wanting something to be true is a terrible basis for forming an argument against it.

It's a big study, 80,000 people. The researchers have already corrected for every variable that they can- like education status, socio-economic background etc., and still been left with a clear trend showing that covid appears to cause cognitive impairment.

Of course the one thing they can't control for is the question of whether being dim makes you more likely to catch covid in the first place. If you're too thick to understand how social distancing works, or how to wear a mask so that it covers both your mouth and your nose, say, then you quite possibly are at higher risk of catching it. But whether that is enough to explain such a strong trend is another matter; and to believe it you'd by extension have to believe that masks and social distancing do actually work, which I gather is not, in fact, a widely shared view in covid-sceptic circles.

For the further avoidance of doubt, I'm a genuine libertarian; I've had my jabs but I would be dead set against compelling anyone else to have them, and I'll never get or show a covid passport, on principle. However there is a difference between quietly deciding not to get the vaccine yourself, and trying to persuade others not to get it by quoting junk science, or blatantly misinterpreting studies that quite clearly show the opposite of what your're trying to prove. The vaccines do what they are designed to do, pretty well, and pretty safely.

Masks. 😂😂😂

 

Jesus fucking christ. They demonstrably do not work, yet here you are, fuckwit that you are confidently talking shite. 

 

The vaccine efficacy is dropping like a stone. Its not even debatable. 

 

Honestly, do some reading before you stride around making a clown of yourself. 

 

Masks. And you're accusing others if nunk science and misinterpreting studies. 

 

Youve got some balls, ill give you that. 

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