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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

You have > 200 stocks?! I wish I had the time to do due diligence on that lot 

I usually own between 25 and 35 and im at the top end now.I also own a few investment trusts etc for areas i want exposure to.I will go up to 5% in a company,but only in big ones,smaller companies would be 2.5%.I used to use US ETFs a lot until we were banned from making money by the EU.We still suffer from those regs now out of the EU.URA and COPEX and the coal one made me good money over the years.

Iv found my performance suffers if i have too many investments.When i started out i used to hold 10 to 12 companies only.

 

 

 

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I just checked our equity section.  Currently 97 stocks, 12 funds, 8 ETFs.  I don't currently trade due to lack of time so these are long term value holds (including a few legacy crappers) with good divs I just trim up and down as the charts suggest.  My hardest decision is not what will happen to a stock but whether I should trim given my long term horizon as that's approaching trading.  I have great technical set ups to make my weekly review an efficient process.  I also have the time, although often lack the "Steady Eddy" consistent application required.  I find the Pareto principle applies to research so just stick to the TradingView charts and fundamental data and Simply Wall Street for my DD on any potential buys my weekly screener flashes up.  About 5 minutes a stock (if it ain't obvious I pass).  I very rarely do more research such as visit stock specific websites or do deep reviews of financial statements unless something interesting (educational) catches my eye.  IMO the charts (price) and some key fundamental metrics are more important.  That remaining 80% is better spent for me on risk management, asset allocations, education, etc.   I'm very well trained to do the analysis (financial, economic, statistical, even political, etc) but am experienced and comfortable enough to know how far I personally need to go.  Many people seem to do in life what they can rather than what they should.  Each to their own depending where they are on their journey and what they want out of it.  Above all, I also understand the primary importance of asset allocations both between and within classes and risk management and alignment of risk to (calculated) required return.  It's an integrated approach most don't think about or do so in an unstructured way.  I used to earn a second salary part time trading derivatives in the 90's but have a different life now.  I've done this for a very long time and have made many of the available mistakes but continue to find more (especially as Mr Market likes to move the goalposts!), something I celebrate!  I bang a few things out on the internet.  Just a random selection from the top of an iceberg to put something back.  Sometimes I go "walkabout"....!

PS:  My performance is not brilliant but I'm still here.  Same with my Harley!

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geordie_lurch

I think the following article should be read by all interested in there capitalism is and where it's heading as it does an incredible job - warning it's very long and will challenge most in some way whether that's the Covid bits or other things they suggest: Capital’s profitability now depends on ‘lockdowns’, acute social enclosure, and ‘medical’ tyranny

https://grossmanite.medium.com/why-capitalism-needs-lockdown-social-enclosure-and-medical-tyranny-363d7838afdf

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11 hours ago, JMD said:

Great looking portfolio imho, plus always pleased to see Rockhopper, gotta be a 100bagger from here?!?

Hope so infa was going to make me rich and as thats not happening, i need an alternative..

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Castlevania
26 minutes ago, Hancock said:

Hope so infa was going to make me rich and as thats not happening, i need an alternative..

I thought Horizonte was going to buy you a Lear jet 

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1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

I thought Horizonte was going to buy you a Lear jet 

Aye thats the other one, this time next year Rodney.

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3 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

I think the following article should be read by all interested in there capitalism is and where it's heading as it does an incredible job - warning it's very long and will challenge most in some way whether that's the Covid bits or other things they suggest: Capital’s profitability now depends on ‘lockdowns’, acute social enclosure, and ‘medical’ tyranny

https://grossmanite.medium.com/why-capitalism-needs-lockdown-social-enclosure-and-medical-tyranny-363d7838afdf

Geordie_lurch, please excuse this rather long post. I have read the article you linked to, but i found it too conspiratorial. For me our present financial/social/political crises is more about institutional decay/crappy leadership, along the lines of Neil Howe's Forth Turning, btw his new book is apparently out next year. 

After all (our current form of) capitalism has been in crises for decades; its twin pillars of 'Capitol' (debased by easy money/debt) and 'Labor' (devalued by competition from tech) have now been hollowed out. But nothing lasts forever, surely it was inevitable to happen eventually?      

And in any case this excellent thread itself pretty much predicts, or at least focuses on the risk of monetary collapse being likely to happen around approx. 2030. @DurhamBorn is gloomy for what might follow that collapse, but also says nothing is certain, and much depends on political decisions made this decade... I always thought this was the correct macro lens to approach things through, with Covid last year kinda cementing many of the other moving parts for me (i posted March 2020 that the 'Covid' impact will be felt bigger than 'Climate').    

I don't dismiss conspiracies out of hand - its just that here on the thread we really have so much to do/learn in order to prepare financially, and looking for a 'Dr Evil' (not saying that you are doing this) is counterproductive in my view. What i mean is we at least have some control over our wealth, but we can't control the politics.   

...As an aside on the politics front, i am still waiting for the Manics to come up with an updated mantra to - 'if you tolerate this, then your children will be next'. Curious how the art/music crowd have been so silent, when for decades they have eagerly jumped aboard all kinds of iffy bandwagons!?!

...For example, could easily make the argument that our physical world is being supplanted by the digital realm, but where is the debate around 'digital serfdom'? (such serfdom is happening i think, perhaps this makes me a conspiracist after all?)

 

Anyway, If i could suggest an alternative source of info. regarding where capitalism is heading, and maybe of doom/gloom economics (not being sarcastic, that happens to be my personality type!), but however crucially where can also find some ideas/approaches to navigate our (g)looming future - then how about Victor Shvets, an investment banker of some 40 years. He's really caught my eye, so to speak, because someone like him is saying things like: 'The private sector will never again walk alone unnasisted'. Essentially, he predicts big dark statist changes ahead.

I have ordered his book. Here is a link to his site.   Viktor Shvets

 

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Noallegiance
1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

I keep thinking of Michael Burry: "Whats the bubble? Everything". 

Screenshot_20210730_164956.jpg

It's like the beginning of a tsumani.

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19 hours ago, Tingles said:

LMFAO.  Like this isn't already a done deal.  You have to appreciate the comedy!

"Gee guys, we can automate taxation, financial surveillence, and blacklisting but I'm not sure about controlling where they spend our CBDC and what they spend it on..."  :D

Which is what I’ve always said on here. CBDC and government blockchain for UBI payment and control. But also other crypto technologies that are key to this ‘new’ future.

Hmm now what crypto is associated with the WEF and the focus on climate change that I’ve mentioned on this very thread for some years now, any guesses? 
 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/06/blockchain-can-help-us-beat-climate-change-heres-how/
 

144931DA-06AA-45DA-991F-2F4DA01EA898.thumb.jpeg.0e0f0d118c790a5db0f688290b7a4158.jpeg

 

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On 28/07/2021 at 23:35, DurhamBorn said:

I had a look through Telefonica Brasil and Germany results tonight and it seems their costs are going up at less than inflation but their prices are going up with inflation.That is exactly what i want to see at this start of the cycle.Free cash should start to increase for most telcos from the 2nd half of this year if that carries on.We might see some up investment though slightly,so we might not see the depreciation cash boost feeding through until another year or so,but the gains building underneath should still turn to cash as long as inflation stays above 2%.

Iv also been looking at the inflation feedback loops from renewables and i dont think the market or government understand the scale of them building.I think copper is certain to double if they stick to the climate goals.Thats before they increase carbon tax/credits.If they do it will be higher,and copper doubling will push up the costs of renewables and EVs etc by a large margin.Iv been doing a rough cross market with oil and gas on this and think $200 oil is almost certain,gas should treble from here,though might need another 18 months consolidating then a big run higher.

The interesting thing is that most of the oil and gas bears think EVs collapsing in price will speed up the transition,my take is the opposite,costs of renewables and EVs is going to increase with a lag and will go up in tandem with fossil fuels.

 

 

 

I've posted an extract from an email below. It's looking like web hosting and providers of associated software are matching what's going on with telcos. This is for one hosting company but they all use the same software. Feels to me that now the dirty word of 'inflation' is out there they are all breaking ranks and hiking up prices. Of course not so much of a concern if you happen to be a shareholder.

 

Quote

 

Since we originally launched the plan type you are currently using, in 2015, we have seen significant cost increases across our industry. Those with the most impact have been in the area of licensing costs from our software vendors. Rochen utilizes a range of premium software, including VMware to provide redundant virtualization for our servers, LiteSpeed Enterprise Web Server to provide fast site load times through advanced full site caching, Cloud Linux for site stability, security including full WAF and malware protection through Imunify360, and R1Soft for data backups. We have seen price increases from all of these vendors.


The most significant cost increase we have seen though, is from cPanel. cPanel is the software vendor behind our hosting control panel. They increased pricing significantly in January 2020, and then did so again in January 2021. In addition to the price increase they made a structural change to how they license their software to all of their customers, including Rochen. Previously cPanel charged Rochen a flat fee on a "per server" basis, but they have now moved to a model of charging both a "per server" fee and a "per account" fee for each customer domain we have deployed on a server.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, invalid said:

 

I've posted an extract from an email below. It's looking like web hosting and providers of associated software are matching what's going on with telcos. This is for one hosting company but they all use the same software. Feels to me that now the dirty word of 'inflation' is out there they are all breaking ranks and hiking up prices. Of course not so much of a concern if you happen to be a shareholder.

 

 

 

 

I laughed when i read the MSM over Virgin02 rolling out fiber and saying it would hurt BT.Watching BTs results their CEO said he was glad there would be 2 great networks and thats why he is CEO and not a hack because he knows 2 big networks is better than one,easier to fob off regulators.

The best markets are the ones where there are two or three players because they all force prices up and only semi compete,but they can all say they do.

Thats exactly what tobacco did and do.There are three big players in our shops,so margins should be tiny,yet they are around 45% minimum and they all put their prices up roughly the same.They compete on lots of things,but not price.Funny enough though they do compete on vape and heat not burn,and people think thats against each other,and it is in a small way,but its mostly the big tobacco companies all growing the market while squeezing out all the smaller competition and slowly getting regulators to strangle them with red tape.Once done they will all revert to similar price increases each year.

Europes big telcos (and most of Africa as they own that) will finish CAPEX and then all push up prices and compete on lots of things,but not much on price.

 

 

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ThoughtCriminal

War or Depression next? Place your bets. 

David Hunter did say this all ends so badly that he doesn't even like to think about it. 

Screenshot_20210730_220923.jpg

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Castlevania
10 hours ago, invalid said:

 

I've posted an extract from an email below. It's looking like web hosting and providers of associated software are matching what's going on with telcos. This is for one hosting company but they all use the same software. Feels to me that now the dirty word of 'inflation' is out there they are all breaking ranks and hiking up prices. Of course not so much of a concern if you happen to be a shareholder.

 

 

 

 

I was thinking about Amazon the other day. The retail side is a low margin business that will heavily struggle from inflation. Amazon web services on the other hand should be able to rise their prices by at least the increase in their costs. I don’t think it justifies their valuation, but they have some protection there.

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jamtomorrow
19 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like talebs finally jumped the shark. 

Screenshot_20210731_093234_com.twitter.android.jpg

Wow. He does seem to have been disintegrating for a while - looks like it's a case of "gradually, then suddenly". Shame, Incerto was interesting.

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ThoughtCriminal
1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Wow. He does seem to have been disintegrating for a while - looks like it's a case of "gradually, then suddenly". Shame, Incerto was interesting.

Yeah, such a shame when you consider how good he was at his best. 

 

Watching him eviscerate the talking heads on the MSM after the 2008 debacle was just tv gold. 

On another note, time to go long emerging markets......... 😂

Screenshot_20210731_102218_com.twitter.android.jpg

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1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Looks like talebs finally jumped the shark. 

Screenshot_20210731_093234_com.twitter.android.jpg

Forgive my ignorance, but who's Lyn Alden?

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Chewing Grass
1 minute ago, Harley said:

Further 'evidence" from today's Telegraph (paywalled):

'Why is my pension being politicised?’: all retirement pots to go green, Government warns

"Pension funds are moving money into ‘sustainable’ stocks but future returns are questionable".

Fucked, fucked and fucked again, by 2030 you will own nothing, have fuck-all pension, die early and be happy.

Cunts.

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