Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Anyone else got any thoughts on this

Earn around $12,500 - £50,000 which if i want to focus on investment returns and extra will keep me within the basic rate tax bracket with 10% CGT bracket 18% with property other wise its 18% and 28%

Also Make use of CGT allowance

So ISA has no dividend tax or CGT - so mostly dividend paying stocks will go here with others 

Stocks and funds account - mostly if i want to invest more and have used my ISA limit will have to pay CGT see above

Precious Metals - Thinking about using some of my CGT allowance to sell down some gold from bullion vault and use that to buy coins so hopefully reduce any future CGT (silver not a option due to premiums and VAT so they stay in bullion vault)

Pension - None don't trust the rules won't change before i can access it (probably stupid i know)

Still deciding what to do with my LTD company if i want to change and do something else 

 

It's quite a process but yes, these are the things needed to be considered after an investment decision has been made.  Many others too like I never use an ISA for non GBP deals given the Forex charges on the deals and the divs.  I also like to ladder in a low cost provider and then bed and breakfast the final into a tax wrapper where that saves on fees.  On PMs, you might avoid a CGT event if you sell and buy similar.  I'm thinking a ltd company may be useful for a variety of stuff down the road.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Thinking of what DB said last week regarding LNG shipping companies having a licence to print money in future. 

 

I had a look and there are only 642 LNG ships in the world, and 12% of those are owned by Nakilat, the Qatari Government company. 

 

Has anyone got any exposure to this market? 

I did have, but as i posted yesterday my Gaslog was taken into private hands in June (by BlackRock).

[Harley]

11 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

40 i know my accountant is always banging on about it to me but my gut just tells me i should have easy access to any investments and fund

Depends on how much cash you've got to spread around, a spread often being a good idea.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv sold out of them now.Fantastic profit on them,nailed the bottom on them last year.I bought some more Centrica  and some more Asian Income,the rest im spreading across some goldies.

I thought you liked a bit of a stair stepper?!

I passed on more goldies this week as I can see the possibility of more weakness in the short to  intermediate term. I'm currently in div plays like CEY, GFI, RRL, etc.  Also some of the large caps like NEM.  Went in a bit too hard on the initial ladders with some.  Will add GDX and GDXJ at the buy.  Am I doing myself bad by focussing on the 3%+ yielders?

Centrica has a big pop feel about it and I am positioned, although currently waiting in the red room!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Thanks Harley, might be tempted as i do like the telecoms, didn't they buy ntt docomo?

We may have to wait!  Bought ntt?  No idea.  Do ya think I'm a details guy or summing!  I just give em a good time, I don't wanna hear their life stories!    

[DurhamBorn]

New levy doesnt affect divis in Tax wrappers,its in section 70 of the document.

70.In addition, many everyday investors will be unaffected. Shares held in ISAs are not subject to dividend tax and, due to the £2,000 tax-free dividend allowance and the personal allowance, around 60 per cent of individuals with dividend income outside of ISAs are not expected to pay any dividend tax or be affected by this change in 2022-23.

[Nomad]

It looks as if the NI tax change is a 1.25% rise for both employers and employees, so a 2.5% rise. Double whammy for those one person limited companies who fall inside IR35.

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Harley said:

I thought you liked a bit of a stair stepper?!

I passed on more goldies this week as I can see the possibility of more weakness in the short to  intermediate term. I'm currently in div plays like CEY, GFI, RRL, etc.  Also some of the large caps like NEM.  Went in a bit too hard on the initial ladders with some.  Will add GDX and GDXJ at the buy.  Am I doing myself bad by focussing on the 3%+ yielders?

Centrica has a big pop feel about it and I am positioned, although currently waiting in the red room!

I do when im investing the bulk,but these are small scale window dressing.Im liking Newcrest and Yamana in the goldies.

Iv a big red on you know who,but im confident now of a profit at some point,maybe a big one.Lets see.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Nomad said:

It looks as if the NI tax change is a 1.25% rise for both employers and employees, so a 2.5% rise. Double whammy for those one person limited companies who fall inside IR35.

And the working poor because the biggest employers like food will pass the costs on.Its always the same how these macro positions work out.We are now in a price spiral,but we are positioned for one so its all good for us.De-complex means way back in the chain,so way back from the cost increases at every stage.Lots more to come yet,this is just the start of things.

 

[HousePriceMania]

18 minutes ago, Nomad said:

It looks as if the NI tax change is a 1.25% rise for both employers and employees, so a 2.5% rise. Double whammy for those one person limited companies who fall inside IR35.

Oddly, introduced just months after they were forced inside IR35.

These people are scamming the country

One rule for the rich, another for the poor.

[planit]

Sorry if anyone else has flagged this and I am not posting to start a Covid discussion but I am seeing a big disparity between the Covid cases around the world and the press reporting (more than normal LOL)

This is World cases

 

The only country with cases still rising quickly that I can find is Philippines, all the others that were rising fast are now clearly falling ie Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and many others. Brazil and Mexico are falling nicely too.

 

US figures look a bit too good to be true (like data is missing) but the growth was slowing even ignoring the last drop.

Hopefully when the media catch up we can move on.

[HousePriceMania]

I think looking at the CV19 cases is important, esp deaths, because another year of lock down means another crash, more QE free money for those ready to pounce and a bigger collapse.

it's the UK deaths that have my attention right now

 

[HousePriceMania]

Looking at that world graph it could do with being split into northern and souther hemispheres to see if it's a seasonal thing in each.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 hour ago, Nomad said:

It looks as if the NI tax change is a 1.25% rise for both employers and employees, so a 2.5% rise. Double whammy for those one person limited companies who fall inside IR35.

So it will also be an excuse for many firms not to raise wages by inflation next year. "We've got to pay an extra 1.25% so can only offer x" (where x is less than inflation). Of course there will be sectors where demand for workers outstrips supply where wages will still go up significantly but perhaps less than they otherwise would.

I'm trying not to get angry and will do what I can to get even instead.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

And the working poor because the biggest employers like food will pass the costs on.Its always the same how these macro positions work out.We are now in a price spiral,but we are positioned for one so its all good for us.De-complex means way back in the chain,so way back from the cost increases at every stage.Lots more to come yet,this is just the start of things.

 

Do you have this rise as inflationary as cost will be pushed on or deflationary as people will put less effort in? Retire early, do fewer hours, move north to realise housing wealth, etc. Clearly we're inflationary from other factors that are more substantial.

I have this down as recessionary as people withdraw their labour. I also think it will speed the re-rating of different forms of labour. So traditional working class jobs will see wage rises relative to middle class jobs at a faster rate than would otherwise have been the case.

Seems to me they're getting to the point where people have had enough. There has been no talk of cutting costs. That is what I want and it has to happen at some point.

Edit: forgot that the money taken from employees is to plug gaps in existing spending rather than to enable more. Therefore the decreased spending power of individuals is not countered by Government spending. Deflationary and recessionary.

[leonardratso]

sup with GCL, OCF offered is fecking huge on lloyds/hfx;

Other ongoing costs 4.65% The impact of the costs that we take each year for managing your investment.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Do you have this rise as inflationary as cost will be pushed on or deflationary as people will put less effort in? Retire early, do fewer hours, move north to realise housing wealth, etc. Clearly we're inflationary from other factors that are more substantial.

I have this down as recessionary as people withdraw their labour. I also think it will speed the re-rating of different forms of labour. So traditional working class jobs will see wage rises relative to middle class jobs at a faster rate than would otherwise have been the case.

Seems to me they're getting to the point where people have had enough. There has been no talk of cutting costs. That is what I want and it has to happen at some point.

Edit: forgot that the money taken from employees is to plug gaps in existing spending rather than to enable more. Therefore the decreased spending power of individuals is not countered by Government spending. Deflationary and recessionary.

People putting less effort in is hugely inflationary.Anything that slows effort and production when liquidity is rising is inflationary.Last year they printed roughly the productivity gains of a normal economy of around 12 years,but into a falling productivity economy.They are taking more and more from the productive to prop up their client state and employees etc.Its a disaster from a macro standpoint,but on a purely self interested part im happy because there are areas to catch the inflation and even leverage it.

They are taking more from workers,but liquidity in the pipes is rising and rising.The NHS pay increase and welfare increases takes up all the extra NI on their own.Distribution cycle where people have to sell assets just to keep their standard of living up.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

sup with GCL, OCF offered is fecking huge on lloyds/hfx;

Other ongoing costs 4.65% The impact of the costs that we take each year for managing your investment.

 

The market cap is tiny and it’s run by an offshoot of a hedge fund.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

People putting less effort in is hugely inflationary.Anything that slows effort and production when liquidity is rising is inflationary.Last year they printed roughly the productivity gains of a normal economy of around 12 years,but into a falling productivity economy.They are taking more and more from the productive to prop up their client state and employees etc.Its a disaster from a macro standpoint,but on a purely self interested part im happy because there are areas to catch the inflation and even leverage it.

They are taking more from workers,but liquidity in the pipes is rising and rising.The NHS pay increase and welfare increases takes up all the extra NI on their own.Distribution cycle where people have to sell assets just to keep their standard of living up.

Interesting. I was thinking in terms of people working less and thus buying less. So fewer goods bought and lower demand. You're saying output will be affected more than demand. Possibly also more printing to pay for the public sector if the private sector shrugs.

I'm calling this the lockdown tax.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I do when im investing the bulk,but these are small scale window dressing.Im liking Newcrest and Yamana in the goldies.

Iv a big red on you know who,but im confident now of a profit at some point,maybe a big one.Lets see.

I have learned. The Scottish thingy 🤣. Cheers.

[Harley]

This money pump into the NHS shows how absolutely incompetent our establishment is as it's just the same old for the same old problems.  No new path, no new ideas, just more of what has proven not to work.  More salaries, more waste.  Told the BMA to authorise more doctors?  No.  More medical places?  No.  Cancelling tuition fees for nurses?  No.  No more nursing degree?  No.  New contracts?  No.  Spending reviews?  No.  Lifting capacity constraints?  No.  And so on and on.  They have no idea how to run anything and just throw our hard earnt and scarce money at things to tick boxes.  They would never rise above filing clerk in a commercial setting.  They are the most wasteful of a long line of wasters.  And it's not just the NHS, it's endemic throughout.  It is now my patriotic duty not to contribute to this pathetic s-show as best I legally can.  These people, polos and administrators, need to go.

[Barnsey]

 

[King of Fools]

Rockets, moon shots
Spend it on the have nots
Money, we make it
Fore we see it you take it

Oh, make me want to holler
The way they do my life (yeah)
Make me want to holler
The way they do my life

This ain't livin', this ain't livin'
No, no baby, this ain't livin'
No, no, no, no

Inflation no chance
To increase finance
Bills pile up sky high
Send that boy off to die
Oh, make me want to holler
The way they do my life (duh, duh, duh)
Yeah, make me want to holler
The way they do my life
Oh, baby

Dah, dah, dah
Dah, dah, dah
Hang-ups, let downs
Bad breaks, set backs
Natural fact is
Oh honey that I can't pay my taxes

Oh, make me want to holler
And throw up both my hands
Yea, it make me want to holler
And throw up both my hands

Oh (ow) crime is (woo) increasing
Trigger happy policing
Panic is spreading
God knows where we're heading
Oh, make me want to holler
They don't understand

[Phil]

19 minutes ago, King of Fools said:

Rockets, moon shots
Spend it on the have nots
Money, we make it
Fore we see it you take it

Oh, make me want to holler
The way they do my life (yeah)
Make me want to holler
The way they do my life

This ain't livin', this ain't livin'
No, no baby, this ain't livin'
No, no, no, no

Inflation no chance
To increase finance
Bills pile up sky high
Send that boy off to die
Oh, make me want to holler
The way they do my life (duh, duh, duh)
Yeah, make me want to holler
The way they do my life
Oh, baby

Dah, dah, dah
Dah, dah, dah
Hang-ups, let downs
Bad breaks, set backs
Natural fact is
Oh honey that I can't pay my taxes

Oh, make me want to holler
And throw up both my hands
Yea, it make me want to holler
And throw up both my hands

Oh (ow) crime is (woo) increasing
Trigger happy policing
Panic is spreading
God knows where we're heading
Oh, make me want to holler
They don't understand

What does that mean.I realise  it’s a personal thing but wtf does it mean?

[Hancock]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm ignoring cases now. Hospitalisations and deaths are the only way to coerce another lockdown.

If they want there to be more recorded deaths and hospitalisation then there will be; whether there actually is, is irrelevant.