Jump to content
DOSBODS

  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
planit

planit

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He just rang me (didnt want it in black and white) and said "if you and those weirdos (how does he know? 😂) you're on that forum with want to make some serious high risk money then look for companies with lots of fixed contracts and short them. Ones without fixed contracts, buy them". 

I am hoping BP will be looking out for opportunities in situations like this to make use of their piles of cash. Might be companies with green assets on one side and energy liabilities on the other.

Or like SSE above who are being pushed to sell off their renewables business.

 

I like this too, BP taking the initiative and employing someone who is willing to speak out. She hasn't started yet either.

image.png.7adddc606e909848a7c07eee4c81811f.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Hope everyone has their silver and gold Sovereigns/Britannias stored safely at the bottom of an unknown boating lake 

"Number 9! Number 9! Come in please! You're time is up!"

"We don't have 9 boats."

".......Number 6 are you in trouble?"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

On that note, has anyone tried rolling their pizzas in this before baking ?

https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/bigger-packs-208331-44/natco-semolina-coarse-15kg

came out tasting like a dominos.

No,but i will thanks,semolina is better in a pizza oven to dust as it doesnt burn etc as quick so much better than flour dusting.I knew,but somehow never did it,but il get some and start ,

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted

Sooooooo energy costs up, inflation surging, defence pacts being made, natural disasters all summer, governments thrashing around for policies........stock market loves it.

DHs melt up. It's on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Yadda yadda yadda

Yadda yadda yadda

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Loki said:

Is this just a case of looking for new startups offering cheap energy? (Buy floating sell fixed, as I saw it put somewhere on here somewhere)

Yes short them - if they're traded. I think he meant businesses that have a lot of fixed rate consumer supply contracts. Buy those that have variable rates. Not sure how you measure that other than going back a couple of months and looking at the money saving expert best buy tables. That would be flawed too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Sooooooo energy costs up, inflation surging, defence pacts being made, natural disasters all summer, governments thrashing around for policies........stock market loves it.

DHs melt up. It's on!

Just need Fed to confirm that they're not thinking about the unpossibility of perhaps not tapering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
belfastchild

belfastchild

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,but i will thanks,semolina is better in a pizza oven to dust as it doesnt burn etc as quick so much better than flour dusting.I knew,but somehow never did it,but il get some and start ,

This! I havent used it in the ferrari but have just finished an outdoor wood fired one. Semolina is better than just plain flour to allow the pizza to slide off the paddle and not end up in a gooey mess burning at the back of the oven and the rest stuck to the paddle.
You put the semolina on the paddle, put on the pizza and then shake the paddle to and fro to show its not sticking.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wherebee

wherebee

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Just as we cosy up to the Ozzies...

The gold rush Down Under: Australia leapfrogs China to be top global producer for first time (msn.com)

I doubt that.  In the late 1800's a bloke in Ballarat was the richest man in the world for a brief while, due to the gold being dug out of his mine.

https://earthresources.vic.gov.au/geology-exploration/minerals/metals/gold/gold-mining-in-victoria

Link to comment
Share on other sites
belfastchild

belfastchild

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Harley said:

Excellent thanks.  A very smart approach.  Do the batteries not charge because you're using all the output in Oct to Mar?  How long ago did you invest the £10k as that sounds good value including an ASHP?  How large an ASHP?  Do the panels and COP provide enough heat out of the ASHP during the winter months? 

Yes, but when entire output for December is 50kWh and the best day in may produces 30kWh then you can see its pretty much useless in December.
I havent been home in 4 days, only thing running is 4 freezers, 2 fridges and a few other small things and battery is currently at 24% (20% is 'empty')

I got in just before the ROCs finished so 5 years ago to the month, battery system half of it about 18 months later (was at a conference about Brexit and energy supply, shit myself listening to them and came home and bought the system that afternoon!) and doubled the capacity about 6 months later when it looked like prices would go up and supply could be curtailed. ASHP was a cheap chinese one - as in the Q+A thread. Only really use it in spring/summer/autumn.

COP is a made up number, like inflation figures, percentage co2 rise, corona estimates. It bears no relevance to the outside world. My biggest problem with the ashp is that I had to place it in probably the worst place for it (north facing wall) due to planning restrictions! When the temp drops below 5C (i.e. when you need it most) the data ends and thats the point the external heaters kick in (to stop the external box freezing). At lower temps I would calculate most of the UK versions have a COP of less than 1 when you take that into consideration.

The ASHP will provide enough heat in the winter months, if you crank it up but as above you would probably be better off with a 2kw bar fire and a fan! (slight exaggeration but you get the idea).

My ASHP is blown air, not for hot water or central heating, where I live Id be better off burning fivers for heat in winter. Panels wont touch the ASHP from about now through to March.

I'll repeat, my entire output from the solar panels for each month of December is around 50kWh. Thats running a 2 bar electric fire for 24 hours.... What you are going to do for the other 30 days in December is anybodys guess.

Im more eco/green than most people I debate this with. The numbers just dont add up. We get something like 60 days a year in the UK when wind output is minimal. So it doesnt matter if you install 10 times the wind (I think the UK can theoretically install about 3-4x what they already have maximum) 10 x 0 is still 0.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
belfastchild

belfastchild

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

With that interconnector out all winter there will be trouble at some point.

There will be a new variant out soon. 95% mortality rate. Good news is that it is inactive above 17C and in the dark, so turn down the heating and turn off the lights...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, planit said:

I am hoping BP will be looking out for opportunities in situations like this to make use of their piles of cash. Might be companies with green assets on one side and energy liabilities on the other.

Or like SSE above who are being pushed to sell off their renewables business.

 

I like this too, BP taking the initiative and employing someone who is willing to speak out. She hasn't started yet either.

image.png.7adddc606e909848a7c07eee4c81811f.png

I do hate corporatism... unless that is i own and benefit from the company doing the cosying up!!!

But I note there was also a link to story regarding Actis GP - basically the alarming trend of yet another private equity fund buying up more assets, this time Mexican gas producers.

Japan's Mitsui and partners to exit Mexico's gas power project (msn.com)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Option5

Option5

Posted
Posted

Norway, with its dependence on Hydro electricity is suffering from very high electricity prices and supply issues. Normally an exporter of electricity it may need to import some if the water levels in the reservoirs doesn't rise soon.

https://e24.no/olje-og-energi/i/V94dm1/naa-er-stroemprisen-paa-nytt-rekordnivaa-kan-ende-med-rasjonering

It's in Norwegian but Google translate does a fairly good job on it.

With the lack of capacity in the gas supply and now electricity are we looking at a looming energy crisis?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted

Looking at things this morning i think the FED will stop printing in Jan or Feb.Thats what the numbers are saying,outside of a BK.Bubble stocks should top out between now and the end of the year,then enter a big long bear.

The liquidity like we thought looks like its going to be sucked up by energy and labour.Lots of liquidity out of bonds and bubble into value and cyclical over the cycle.

I think the crash at the end of this next cycle is looking likely to be the worst ever.Time for that later though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Yadda yadda yadda

Yadda yadda yadda

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Option5 said:

Norway, with its dependence on Hydro electricity is suffering from very high electricity prices and supply issues. Normally an exporter of electricity it may need to import some if the water levels in the reservoirs doesn't rise soon.

https://e24.no/olje-og-energi/i/V94dm1/naa-er-stroemprisen-paa-nytt-rekordnivaa-kan-ende-med-rasjonering

It's in Norwegian but Google translate does a fairly good job on it.

With the lack of capacity in the gas supply and now electricity are we looking at a looming energy crisis?

At some point the wind around the UK will blow. Then we export to Norway and they can conserve water. We just need a period of sustained high winds. Quite likely. Then the Norwegians can return the favour at some point in winter. Not enough to save us but it could help.

Looks like everything is designed for an average winter. No incentive to invest for anything outside that as it won't pay.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Agent ZigZag

Agent ZigZag

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lots of liquidity out of bonds

That is the key statement for this thread. With the bond market so huge when the sell off happens and it starts looking for a home then the only place in town with be the equity markets especially those areas discussed in this thread. As a question what signs do you look for in your macro analysis that this is happening or is  going to happen and with vigour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...